2015 Season Preview: #15 (#32 ITA) Wesleyan Cardinals

Wesleyan 2014-2015 Season Preview

It’s no longer a secret. Wesleyan is here to play in 2015. I know I know, you all gave me a hard time for jumping on the Wesleyan bandwagon last year, and while I still stand by my original thought that Wesleyan will have a team with the ability to make a deep run in 2016, right now we’ll focus on 2015. Wesleyan’s recruiting class was almost 2^nd to none (shouldn’t we know to discount Chicago’s class by now) and Steven Chen backed it up this fall. We’ll go into more depth in the projected lineup, but I believe Chen will start the spring as the Cardinal’s #1. The 4-man recruiting class totals 15 stars, and there’s a solid chance we will see all 4 guys at different points of the year. The trouble for Coach Fried will be selecting the right guys for the bottom of his lineup, for which he has a plethora of possibilities. I honestly believe the Cards will be able to stick with most of the ‘CAC when it comes to singles, but they will certainly need to improve their doubles if they are to move up from conference mediocrity. It’s late, but I wanna finish this so we can focus on #IndoorsWeek. Please forgive me, as I will most certainly not be editing tonight. Let’s get to the facts…

QUICK WESLEYAN FACTS

Coach: Mike Fried, 3^rd season

Location: Middletown, Connecticut

Preseason Power Ranking: #15 (#32 ITA)

Preseason ITA Regional Ranking: #10

Projected End of Season Power Ranking: #17

Projected ITA Regional Ranking: #5

Twitter Handle: @CardsTennis (generally pretty good with the updates)

Key Additions: Steven Chen (4-star, Ca), Winn Smith (4-star, NY), Dhuruv Yadav (4-star, Oh), Cam Daniels (3-star, NY).

Key Departures: None

Most positive extreme OVERREACTION I’ve heard during the fall: “Forget top-4 in the conference, the Cards should be shooting for a 1^st round bye at NESCACs and the possibility of a sweet-16 appearance at NCAAs.”

Most negative extreme OVERREACTION I’ve heard during the fall: “15?! The Blog has these guys at 15?! How can you possibly have them jumping that many strong teams without ever having seen this group play a dual match? This is the most overrated team, besides Whitman, in the entire country.”

Reaction 2 Reactions: How appropriate that I get to publish my friend’s quote about Whitman after they blow through the SBWW quad. As is usually the case, we need to pull these overreactions back towards the middle-ground. Coach Fried and his guys would certainly be pleased with a top-4 NESCACs finish, but let’s think about all the “strong” teams that Wesleyan jumped (http://www.division3tennis.com/2015-season-opening-power-rankings/). I stand by almost every one of those (with the exception maybe of Kenyon and Bowdoin). Realistically, you could make a case for about 10 teams to be anywhere from #10-#19. Luckily for you all, we’ll be doing our first spring power rankings after Indoors this weekend. If Wesleyan hits their ceiling, they are most certainly a top-15 team; however, top 2 in the conference is (as of now) still a stretch.

Projected Singles Lineup

1. Steven Chen (Fr), Range #1-2: Steven Chen is a big part of why the other writers are (even if reluctantly) inching towards the Wesleyan bandwagon. One Wesleyan player (lovingly) refers to Chen as “Martina Hingis with power.” I honestly don’t know what joke to make. I take personal offense here because I consider Martina Hingis to be one of the most beautiful women in the world (the drugs charges only help) so I’ll just leave it alone. Chen’s ITA run included straight set wins over Oh (MIT #2), Wong (Tufts #4 if he weren’t injured), Zykov (Amherst #2/3), Farrell (Midd #2/3), and Frons (Midd #4). As if those names weren’t enough, Chen dropped a total of 14 games in those 5 wins. Even though he fell to Solimano in the finals, he represented the region at Small College Nationals when Solimano pulled out (due to Amherst’s fall dual matches). Chen more then held his own, taking down Hull (CMS #5? ridiculous), and pushing the eventual champion Chua to 3 sets. The only reason his range includes #2 is that he does lack experience. We saw Trinka win the ITA last year and play #2 behind Bragg. My guess is Steven grinds his way to a few early wins at #1 and remains there for much of the next 4 years.
2. Mike Liu (So), Range #1-#3: Chen wasn’t the only Cardinal who had an outstanding fall. Mickey Liu had an equally impressive ITA run, which also ended in a defeat to Solimano. Along the way, he took down Murad (Colby #2), Revzin (Amherst #2/3), and Planche (Bates #1). His ITA feat was no fluke, backing an impressive 2013-2014 which included wins over Ari Smolyar (Midd #1), Chris Dale (graduated Amherst #2), Campbell (Midd #1-3) and Planche. Coach Fried must have been impressed with his sophomore’s performance, because Liu was slotted ahead of Roberts at the Quinnipiac Invitational a few weeks later. Whether he plays #2 or #3, look for Liu to be pretty consistent for the Cards this spring.
3. Jake Roberts (So) Range #1-#3: Roberts had a somewhat disappointing fall as compared to his aforementioned Cardinal teammates. Although he played ahead of Liu all of last season, Coach Fried slotted him in the B singles draw at the Quinnipiac Invitational after Liu’s ITA success. Roberts hits a big ball, and playing #2 or #3 should greatly increase his W-L record this spring. He did have a win over Micheli last fall (2013), but his spring record against ranked DIII teams was 1-5 (with a win over Berg (Bates #1)). Though Jake’s fall was forgettable, I see him being able to beat anyone he plays if slotted at #3.
4. Dhuruv Yadav (Fr), Range #3-#6: And now begins the guessing game. In the words of my Wesleyan insider, “very solid, plays super clean and is usually very aggressive.” Dhuruv dealt with some injuries over the fall, but won the B draw at Quinnipiac so the Ohio boy has something to hang his hat on. He pushed Frons (Midd #3/4) to 3-sets in the 1^st round of the ITA, and Frons made it all the way to the semis before falling to Chen. Yadav is another young Card with a bright future ahead of him. I think he’s the likely guy to slot in at #4, but if Coach Fried wants to go with experience, he might go with Rudovsky instead
5. Sam Rudovsky (Jr), Range #4-8: @RudovTheRedKnows (still one of my favorite twitter handles) had a better fall in doubles than singles. He teamed with Roberts to make the ITA semis before falling 8-6 to Planche/Ellis, the eventual champs. He didn’t get to play singles at the tournament, with Wesleyan’s 4 spots going to the 4 guys listed ahead of him in this projection. While some of the younger guys like Smith and Daniels may have bigger long-term upside, Captain Sam has the experience edge that most coaches look for, especially towards the bottom of their lineups. Ruda (pronounced like LUDA) played most of last year at #3, and though he took a fair amount of losses, I see him starting somewhere in this lineup. However, it would not surprise me if Smith moved up here shortly into the season.
6. Stephen Monk/Michael King/Winn Smith (Sr/Jr/Fr) Range #5-#8: Now you can see just how tough the bottom of the lineup will be. Monk is a former #1 singles player. King played #5 for all of last year amassing wins over Jackson (Midd #6), Shastri (Williams #2), and Traff (Trin Ct #4). So two of these potential #6’s are proven vets, and the third is known for “being a super competitive grinder”, being “feisty in matches”, and having “some of the best hand in the ‘CAC.” Plus his name is Winn. That can’t just be coincidence. Look, a year or two ago there’s no way I would have said that #1 Stephen Monk would ever be on the outside of this lineup, but after his mediocre season at #4 last year, and being entered in the D-Flight at Quinnipiac, it’s a distinct possibility. For now, I’ll say Smith. King will need some time to get back into shape after going abroad, and a veteran like Monk is the ideal replacement at #6 if things don’t work out.
   • Cam Daniels/Greg Lyon/Zachary (Zakk-O) Brint (Fr/So/Jr) Range #6-11: Cam Daniels could not be more of a wild card. My friends at Wesleyan say that he is “the fastest kid on the team, runs down every ball, and has really clean strokes.” However, he didn’t play any singles this fall. He may be an important cog as soon as this year, but I don’t seem him starting the season in the lineup. Lyon got some D-Flight singles action at Quinnipiac, and won every match he played. The 4-star sophomore played very little last year, therefore it would surprise me if he were starting at the beginning of the season. For now, he’s more likely to contribute in doubles than singles. Finally, we have Zakk-O. I don’t know how he’d like me to spell it, but I’m hoping it’s with 2 k’s. That would be a sweet nickname in and of itself. Although he did play much of last year at #6, Zakko is also more of a doubles specialist at this point.

SCHEDULE

http://www.wesleyan.edu/athletics/mtennis/scheduleresults.html

Best-Case Scenario: The Cards come out clicking on all cylinders, and upset Redlands to start the year, moving their ITA ranking much closer to their power ranking. While they lose to CMS in the 1^st round of the Stag Hen, they upset Kenyon in the back draw (giving them an indirect over Case). They roll Deis, get a huge 5-4 win over Bowdoin, and routine both Bates and Conn. They play Wash U to a close loss, squeak out a 5-4 nail-biter over Williams, and blow by Trinity Ct. Tough loss vs. Amherst, but followed by three wins over W&L, Colby, and Hamilton to close out the regular season as the #3 seed in the NESCAC. The Cards knock off Tufts in the 1^st round of NESCACs before falling 5-4 to Midd in the semis. They get some help, receive the final pool C spot, and make their first NCAA tournament in recent memory (and maybe ever).

Worst-Case Scenario: Redlands knows they can’t afford a single loss and they stomp the fresh off the plane Cards. Wesleyan goes 0-3 against the top-15 competition in the Stag Hen, and barely beat Brandeis upon their east coast return. Bowdoin’s freshmen develop more than Wesleyan’s and the Polar Bears send Wesleyan to a 1-5 start. The Cards rebound with a tight win over Bates, but get throttled by Wash U and can’t overcome their doubles deficit to Williams. The Cards eek out a 5-4 win over a feisty senior-driven Trinity Ct team, but follow it up with a 9-0 blank from Amherst. Wesleyan goes into NESCACs as the #6 seed, somehow losing a tiebreaker with Tufts even though they don’t play this spring. The Cards fall to Williams or Bowdoin in the 1^st round, don’t come anywhere close to Pool-C, and finish the year around #25 in the country.

Realistic Prediction/Schedule Analysis: Shocker, I’m leaning towards the middle ground here (plus, no non-Wesleyan fan is still reading at this point anyways). I see the very first match of the year, Redlands on March 11^th, as the tone setter for the Cards’ season. I see this as a 5-4 Redlands win. Tough loss for the Cards, but a confidence booster if taken the right way. A win vs. CMS in the 1^st round of the Stag Hen is too much to ask, but another 5-4 match in the back draw vs. Kenyon is very plausible. The Stag Hen should be good experience for the freshies, and Wesleyan should come home and take care of Brandeis. I see the Bowdoin and Williams matches to be very similar. Wesleyan has the depth to hang with both, but doubles is the real question. Until I see otherwise, I think the Cards lose both matches close. However, I think Wesleyan takes care of NESCAC business otherwise and end the season as the #5 seed. Here’s where it gets interesting. At this point, the #4 NESCAC team will likely need to beat Amherst in the semis to have any sort of a shot at NCAAs, and they will overlook Wesleyan. I think Wesleyan exacts revenge on whomever they play (Williams or Bowdoin) and makes the NESCAC semis. This, paired with their wins over Brandeis, Bates, and Trinity Ct, jumps the Cards to about #18 in the rankings, which is where they end the year, poised to do more damage in 2016 and beyond.

Ok, enough of this. Even you NE folks should excited for #IndoorsWeek.The Guru has his preview coming out in a matter of hours, and we are preparing to give you at least one Indoors preview article per day leading up to the start on Friday afternoon. All you NE fans, don’t despair. I’ll be giving you an mid-week update on Bates and Brandeis tomorrow night including the much sought after Bates/Whittier preview.