2014 NCAA’s: The Emory Region @ W&L

Well, I guess it seems I’m late to the party considering everyone is almost done with their previews, but do not be alarmed.  I will get all three of my regional previews done by the time the region starts.  Thankfully, all my regions begin play on Friday so that gives me one buffer day in case something goes wrong.  First up, I’ll be previewing the Emory region – which happens to contain a couple of my favorite teams.  It also has one of my least favorite teams, but whatever.  Since people usually like to see things in the same format, I’ll obviously be using the same format the other bloggers have been using for the sake of decreasing difficulty.  Who knows, maybe I’ll throw a curveball in there for you too.

#1 Emory Eagles

Strengths – Why didn’t the other bloggers just say strengths?  Who do they think they are, Shakespeare?  Jeez.  Getting to Emory’s strengths, you could say they have a lot of them.  Their whole singles lineup can win against basically any opponent.  The top part of the lineup is especially strong as Ruderman has been on an absolute tear and Halpern, as we all know, is a true gamer at #2.  Both these guys have great NCAA experience and are ready to go in their third years.    Mosetick is another strength at #3 as he has really found his game as of late.  Top of the singles lineup is definitely something to watch for the Eagles.  Additionally, I think another strength for Emory is the competitive edge.  These guys bring it, whether it be obnoxious or not.  This team knows how to win and doesn’t back down from everyone.  That’s something to be said when you’re going against the best of the best.

Weaknesses – Doubles is a definite weakness right now for Emory.  They finished the year getting upset by CMU because they got swept in doubles and I keep mentioning that their only losses are when they get swept.  They are a notoriously short team, which may or may not have an impact on doubles, but I think the main thing is that they are mostly singles players.  Emory will have had two weeks to shore up their lineup and find the right combinations before the regional play, so it will be important to see who’s out there for NCAAs.  I’m not totally sure about the rules regarding team-switching once NCAA’s start but I would assume there wouldn’t be too many changes allowed.  If Emory can get one doubles match in their matches over the weekend, they should be solid to move onto the Elite 8.

Why they’ll advance – They’ll advance because first of all, they have the most talented team in the region.  Kenyon can challenge them a bit but I don’t believe this team is going to go down.  With the combination of desire, talent, and competitiveness, Emory has the goods to easily move on to the Elite 8.  If they put it all together, this should be an easy ride.  If they don’t, they could face a barn-burner with likely opponent Kenyon if they lose focus.  Even if they go down 3-0 in doubles, they can definitely win from that position.  Look for Emory to lean heavily on singles while potentially struggling a little in doubles play.

Player to Watch – Nick Szczurek – Szczurek holds a big key to the Eagles success in the tournament because he strikes me as a wild card.  He’s had a very good year manning the #4 and #5 spots, yet he doesn’t really get mentioned among the best #5 singles players in the nation.  He took out some solid opponents in the UAA Tournament and if he is able to beat Nick Fiaschetti of Kenyon in the Sweet 16, the Eagles can probably say that they will move on to the Elite 8.  Szczurek has a mean game where he really strikes the ball with flat power to the corners.  This can give a ton of #5s problems and it will be nice to see him pick up where he left off going into regionals.

Odds of Winning the Regional – 85% (This number jumps to 98% if W&L beats Kenyon)

Kenyon Lords

Strengths – It’s hard to point out the Lords strengths because this year has really been a tumultuous year for them.  If I were to point out one or two strengths, I’d say it would be the top of the lineup, both in singles and doubles.  They have a good #1 team in Rosensteel and Geier, and it’s basically necessary that they win their doubles matches against both W&L and Emory if it gets to that.  In singles, Heerboth and Geier are both strengths at the top of the lineup as well.  Both of these players are in the top half of their positions, so again, these guys really need to step up for Kenyon to turn this season around.  The reason why is because of their weaknesses…

Weaknesses – Depth is the key weakness for the Lords with the loss of their #1 singles player.  The Lords already had trouble with depth earlier in the year so this is not surprising at all.  Take a look at their #3 doubles team and you’ll see Tristan Kaye and Michael Roberts down there.  While that may be a solid #3 team, it’s not a team that really strikes fear into their opponents.  Both players don’t play in the singles lineup as well.  Meanwhile in singles, the quad of Rosensteel/Huber/Fiaschetti/Haas have all had their struggles this year, especially Rosensteel.  All of these guys are at least one spot above their normal positioning and it really shows.  These guys are going to have to step it up come tournament time if the Lords are going to have any chance.

Why they’ll Advance – They’ll advance if someone at the bottom of the lineup catches fire and takes two matches out of the blue.  Their top dogs will keep steady, pulling out tough wins over the DIII elite, and they’ll finally come together as a team in what has been a rocky season.  Coach Thielke will stress the importance of fighting in every match and Kenyon will keep it close enough to make one last stab at the Elite 8.

Why they won’t – They won’t advance because of talent.  They are a worse team than Emory right now, and if they go up against an Emory team that really brings it, I don’t see how they get through to the Elite 8.  It’s as simple as that.

Player to Watch – Tim Rosensteel – I said this in my Top 10 thoughts about a week and a half ago, but Rosensteel really holds the key to the Kenyon success in the NCAA tournament.  He’s been struggling basically all year in singles, but one has to hope he can find the game with his big-hitting style and go on a little tear.  That’d be nice to see for a nice kid and a hard worker like Tim.  Rosensteel needs to get this thing going for the Lords to have success.  Watch out for his match against Chris Hu of W&L on Saturday, that will be a telling sign of how he is playing.

Chances to Advance – 8%

Washington & Lee Generals

Strengths – It’s the middle of the lineup for sure.  You gotta love the trio at 2-4 singles for the Generals.  The setup of Holt at #2, Hu at #3, and Krasner at #4 makes for a very tasty middle of the lineup.  All three of them have signature wins this year and they are definitely up and coming players for the next couple of years.  Luckily for the Generals, Kenyon can be had at the middle of the lineup and they will need big efforts from all of these guys to get the win against the Lords.  I highly doubt the Lords will overlook the Generals, especially on their home courts, so expect battles at these matches.  In addition, W&L generally brings some strong doubles at the top two spots with good fundamentals and a very menacing team at #1.  The Holt/Shamshiri combo is one of the better combos in DIII and they’ve come around as of late after starting the year very slowly.  This works well for the Generals because if they can capture the first doubles spot, I think they can take one of the other two and really make a run at Kenyon.

Weaknesses – The fringe spots in the lineup (#1, 5, 6) and #3 doubles represent tough spots for W&L to take based on their team.  You rarely see something like this on a team, because usually stronger spots move up.  However, Shamshiri has held off Holt to continue playing at the #1 spot for the whole year despite not having great success there.  In addition, the depth of the Generals remains suspect.  There are times where the #5 and #6 guys can really turn it on and come up big.  They’ll have to try and take advantage of an equally suspect bottom of the Kenyon lineup if they want to get through to the next round.

Why they’ll Advance – They’ll advance to the Elite 8 only if 50% of Emory’s team gets injured.  Emory beat them handily earlier in the season and I wouldn’t expect anything to change in the NCAA tournament.  However, W&L can advance to their first Sweet 16 in a while by taking care of their strengths and beating Kenyon.  If they can come out of the doubles with a 2-1 lead, there is no reason for them not to have the advantage at three spots in the lineup.

Why they won’t advance – W&L won’t make the Sweet 16 if they come out flat against Kenyon.  They have a great opportunity, especially at home, against a vulnerable top 15 team.  If they come out fired up and quickly take some leads, expect that momentum to continue to the end of doubles as well as the beginning of singles.  That’s a huge part of an upset and this is why it is absolutely necessary for them to come out sharp in their match against the Lords.

Player to Watch – Jordan Krasner – This freshman has had a very solid year at #4 singles, but the important match here is at #3 doubles against a young Kenyon team as well.  Can this freshman step up and get his doubles game under wraps?  If so, maybe the Generals can steal that #3 match and put some major pressure on the Lords.  His #4 match against Huber will be equally as important, as that is a weak spot for the Lords and I can see that being a big point for W&L.

Chances of Elite 8 – 1%

The Others – NCW, Franciscan, Catholic

Honestly, I don’t know much about many of these teams and that’s probably my fault.  However, I need to get two other previews out and I can’t really go too in depth into these teams.   I hope you understand.  Very quickly…

NCW: The question of NCAA’s for NCW is “Will they reward themselves with a nice dinner after they beat Franciscan in the first round?”

Franciscan – This is a team that lost to Allegheny 9-0, who lost to Kenyon 7-2.  That’s just not a great result so I don’t think they’ll put up much of a fight against NCW.

Catholic – Congratulations to the Cardinals for taking out a Juniata team that I had expected to win their conference, and Catholic can already consider their season a success.  They won’t be able to control the Generals on their home courts, but they should soak up the experience of making an NCAA tournament and keep chugging along.

Matches to Watch

Kenyon vs. Wash&Lee

This is by far the match to watch of the region.  The reason why is because both of these teams probably won’t be able to handle Emory in the Sweet 16.  Like I said earlier, W&L’s strengths match up fairly well with Kenyon’s weaknesses and this one can potentially be a 5-4 thriller.  The key for W&L is that they get a lead in doubles.  The swing match for sure is going to be at #1 doubles between Shamshiri/Holt and Rosensteel/Geier.  Both these teams have had up and down years but both of these teams are very talented when it comes to doubles play.  I really think that W&L is going to come away with the 2-1 doubles lead with wins at #1 and #3 doubles.  That’s where the fun starts to happen.

In singles, Heerboth should take care of Shamshiri fairly easily.  That makes it 2-2 between the two teams but every other match could be a toss-up.  I give the advantage to Kenyon at 5 and 6 with Fiaschetti and Haas, who have both played well lately.  Those are far from 100% guarantees though, especially with the up and down play of Fiaschetti and the sometimes shaky Haas.  I do like them over the Generals though.  At 3 and 4, the advantage probably has to go to Hu and Krasner.  Rosensteel and Huber haven’t proven much to me lately.  That makes the match come down to Sam Geier vs. Michael Holt, which in my mind is a marquee matchup.  Geier has the experience of playing in fall nationals as well as some other big matches, and I’m going to go with him in a close two setter to clinch the match for the Lords.  This one can really go either way, so watch out for the Generals on their home courts!

Kenyon/W&L vs. Emory

Let me just start by saying that this match will be no contest if W&L makes the next round.  Actually, now that I think of it… Kenyon doesn’t really have that big of a shot either.  For kicks, I’ll do the Kenyon/Emory preview right now.

Let me just start by saying that the only way Kenyon can win this match is by sweeping the doubles play.  I absolutely do not think that will happen considering Emory will come out trying to prove to everyone that they can play doubles.  #1 should be a great match again between the two teams and I do think Kenyon has the advantage at #2 doubles.  At #3 doubles, I think it’s a definite advantage for Emory, but I keep saying that over and over and they honestly haven’t come up big yet.  That being said, Emory should be able to up the volume and intensity and I expect them to come out leading 2-1.  I do not know which spots (my guess is at #1 and #3), but I just have this feeling that they will.

In singles, the marquee matchup is obviously at #1, but they probably will not finish.  I actually almost guarantee that they don’t finish.  Emory has the advantage at literally every spot from #3-6, which is why Kenyon needs to get the doubles sweep to even have a fighting chance at this one.  The bottom of the Kenyon lineup has come through against Depauw, but Emory is no Depauw.  Expect a clean sweep at the bottom of the lineup, leaving the #1 and #2 matchups on court as Kenyon goes home in the Sweet 16 by the score of 5-1.

That’s all I’ve got for the Emory Region Preview!  Remember to sign up for the NCAA Team Bracket Challenge on the left of the site, and keep a look out for the Individual Challenge as well!  We will try our best to get the draws out as soon as we can, but as you all know, they are very secretive about that stuff.  With that… ASouth, OUT.