2014 NCAA’s: The CMU Region

Just finished one preview, onto another one.  I’m feeling it this Wednesday night *HUUUUUUUUUUUMP DAAAAAAAAAAAAAY* and I think I can get a pretty easy preview out here for the Carnegie Mellon region.  The blood is pumping, adrenaline flowing, and this region has one marquee matchup that a ton of people are looking forward to.  I saw in the polls that this region is currently 2^nd in “Most Looked Forward to Region” which I guess I would agree with.  We’ll get to that marquee matchup later, but let’s continue to follow the same format so no one gets confused.  I’ll go seed by seed then stop with the details once I hit a talent drop.  This time, it’ll only be 2 teams.

Carnegie Mellon Tartans

Strengths – When you’re the #5 team in the country, you’re going to have some strengths.  Carnegie definitely has a lot of strengths and the first one is their freshmen.  The combination of Kirkov, Zheng, and Wadwani have worked wonders this year at the bottom of the lineup.  They have like a total of 6-7 losses on the whole year, basically an average of 2 per player.  That’s a really good output from three freshmen.  They’ve notched big wins over a ton of big-name players and this is a true strength for the Tartans.  Additionally, I can’t mention Tartans strengths without mentioning Abhishek Alla, who is up there with the best in the nation after his Fall ITA win.  With those four players, CMU counts on big wins against any team in the nation while also getting very solid contributions from their juniors, Christian Heaney-Secord and William Duncan.

Weaknesses – The common theme from my commentary throughout the year on CMU is that their doubles has really left a lot to be desired.  Prior to the UAA tournament, the only lead I remember them taking against a top 20 team is against Bowdoin, who have had their own struggles in doubles.  The problem here with the Tartans is that it seems like their top singles talent doesn’t translate as well to doubles.  Alla has not played a single doubles match this year, Zheng has played maybe 2 matches, and Wadwani has not played as well.  This leaves the Tartans fishing for doubles specialists that haven’t come up with many big wins this year.  However, the silver lining for Carnegie is that they had some pretty good performances in UAAs.  Their #1 team has come together at the right time and their #2 and #3 teams have benefitted from some switches.  If they can get it right, they can really do some damage.

Why they’ll Advance – The formula for CMU advancing is clear.  They need to make sure they don’t get down big in doubles and then let their singles play do the talking.  Carnegie has not been to the NCAA’s in a while, which The Guru did point out.  They have to make sure they understand the magnitude of these matches and that every point really really counts.  If they can do that, they should be able to make it through.  If not, they may get into trouble…

Why they won’t – The way they won’t advance is because of doubles.  CMU got the short end of the stick by drawing Case in their region but there’s nothing you can really do about that.  It sucks because Case loves doubles and Carnegie is fighting some demons there.  If this match is like the last one, CMU will be living on the edge on the biggest stage they’ve been in this year.  That’s a tough task.

Player to Watch – Christian Heaney-Secord – I named H-S the X-Factor in my Top 10 thoughts and the thinking has not changed one bit.   If you look at their match against Case, he’ll be at #1 doubles against one of the best teams in the nation and at #2 singles against Drougas, who is always tough.  This CMU/Case match will not be a cakewalk by any means, so get ready to fight for every point you can get.

Chances to Advance – 65%

Case Western Spartans

Strengths – DOUBLES. How many times do we have to say it!  Doubles is the name of the game for Case Western and they will definitely come out firing with their best performance in the regional tournament. Case has built a program simply on the motto of being scrappy and working harder than the other team, which translates well to the doubles court.  They have great instincts at the net and have worked countless hours with each other on the practice court.  This chemistry and familiarity (I know, same thing) has been part of the Spartan formula since Coach Todd arrived.  Krimbill/Klawitter make up a strong #1 team that has done well against many opponents.  The #2 team is anchored by John Healey, a senior captain and one of the best doubles players around in my opinion.  These two make up one of the best 1-2 doubles punches outside of CMS.  In addition to doubles, another strength of Case is their coaching and desire.  It’s amazing how this team has shot up the rankings since the arrival of Coach Todd, and he deserves a lot of kudos for that.  I especially enjoy the whole “___ miles left, every match is won before it ever begins” motto that they have going on their twitter.  This team has the mindset correct for NCAAs.  Can they breakthrough with a win, however?

Weaknesses – I did a lot of praising for Case, but they would be the #1 team in the nation if they didn’t have a weakness.  Their weakness to me is their singles depth.  They did recently get Klawitter back in the lineup, but the Case singles depth continues to stick out as a soft underside for this Spartan team.  It’s not that they don’t have talented players down there, but it just seems that the guys down bottom just need a little extra push to get to the winning circle.  They’ll have their hands full with the talented bottom of the Carnegie lineup and this is a place that will need to come up with some big wins if Case wants to advance.

Why they’ll advance – Doubles is the main story here as to why Case will advance.  Last time they played CMU, they were able to sweep the doubles play.  They may have to do this again to get another crack at that 5-4 or 6-3 victory over the Tartans.  If doubles comes to play, they certainly have the big dogs at the top of the lineup to get them over the hump and win the team match.  But, it’s absolutely necessary for them to have a lead.

Why they won’t – They won’t because of the way these matchups work.  As much as we like to focus on dubs, singles is still worth 6 points.  If you can’t at least split the singles matches, you’re going to have some issues against the top 10, especially while playing on their home courts.  Remember that the last time these two played they were on the Indoor Case courts, which I’d assume is a bit different than the outdoor courts at Carnegie Mellon.  Case may not have the singles firepower to overtake the Tartans if CMU has a good day.

Player to Watch – Christopher Krimbill.  Krimbill has to come up HUGE for the Spartans as he is truly the rock of their lineup and their best player.  Krimbill will again be facing off against Alla in singles, which was a win for him last time in three sets.  Expect that match to be another tough one as these guys gut it out once again.  He’ll also be playing #1 doubles against Carnegie’s best team, so that will be exciting to see as well.  Krimbill holds the key to a Spartan victory if he can get two matches.

Chances to Advance – 35%

Kalamazoo, Grove City, Messiah, Otterbein

Let’s be honest, none of these teams have the firepower to take 3 matches off of either of the top teams.  Unfortunately, that’s the way of the world in DIII tennis with 32 Pool A bids.  I think the Messiah/Otterbein match might be a nice close one for those two teams, but Kalamazoo will hopefully take care of Grove City pretty easily.  If they don’t, then I don’t really know what to say.  Messiah/Otterbein is a real bracket buster if you get it wrong, though!

Matches to Watch

CMU vs. Case Western

There is one match to watch in this region and of course it is Carnegie vs. Case.  These two teams have played every year for the past few years since I can remember.  I think (correct me if wrong) Case has beaten Carnegie in the UAA tournament the past two years until CMU flipped the script this year on Case’s home courts.  This is going to be a dogfight and I’m sure CMU is happy that they get the home court this time around.   This is a matchup that probably warrants a blow-by-blow breakdown, but it’s late and I don’t want to do that.  I did one last time and it is clear to me where the advantages and disadvantages are.

Starting with doubles, it’s imperative that Case takes the lead.  It’s also borderline imperative that CMU takes at least one doubles match.  I doubt that any team would want to try and comeback from 3-0 down in the NCAA tournament.  But hey, a win is a win.  The matches to watch here are #1 and #3 doubles.  Both of those matches could be close, depending on who’s out there for both teams.  I’m still confused about CMU’s #3 team, where they seem to have a revolving door.  Personally, I think Case has the advantage at all 3.  That being said, I also think that CMU has the confidence and the ability to take one of these doubles matches and make things really interesting for the Spartans.  I’m going to go with a big win at #1 for the juniors Heaney-Secord and Duncan over a very good team in Krimbill and Klawitter.  Call me crazy, but that’s what I think.

Moving onto singles, I don’t think this is going to go exactly as the last time either.  Alla vs. Krimbill will be another great match I’m sure, which will probably go three sets.  Alla can really set the tone for the Tartans if he can pull off a straight set win.  If he is able to do that, that’s a big boost to the rest of the CMU guys.  I don’t think it’ll happen, but I will go Alla in three sets.  At #2, we’ll see another really tough match between Heaney-Secord and Drougas.  Which Christian will show up for this match?  If it’s the good one, I like him on his home courts to take this one in straights.  Judging on past results, Drougas has always come through in clutch situations as well, so this one is really tough.  Another three setter, this time it goes to Drougas in 3.  #3 pits Duncan against Klawitter.  Last time, I picked Klawitter to grind him down.  I’m changing that pick right now and going with Duncan.  Klawitter is a senior though… so I am getting a bit wary.  Big swing match here.  At #4-6, we see the lineup of Reinbold, Fojitasek, and Healey against Kirkov, Zheng, and Wadwani.  Flipping the script from doubles, I think CMU has the slight advantage at all 3 spots.  However, I do think Case takes one of them.  My best bet is going to be Healey at #6 if he comes out firing.  When it’s all said and done, I am going to pick CMU by the score of 5-4, with wins at #1 doubles and #1, #3, #4 and #5 singles.  This one might go down to the last match in NCAAs.  Now that would be a treat.  All hail the CMU and Case twitter accounts!!!

That’s my second preview done of the night.  I am a dedicated dude.  I’ll hit you all with my last preview (Hopkins Region) tomorrow, and make sure you sign up for our bracket challenge! Check the left of the side for all of our links and polls.  ASouth, OUT.