It’s a light weekend in D3 tennis this weekend. Thank goodness because covering Indoors was rough, and I didn’t even do that thorough of a job. Things really heat up next week, as the various ranked teams start their Spring Break trips, but before we get to that, we have to get through this weekend.
There are only three matches on D3’s calendar this weekend, and only one of the results is really in any doubt at all. Rhodes is completely outmatched by Emory, and you can bet on a 8-1 or 9-0 victory for the Eagles. Meanwhile, though Swarthmore seems to be perpetually underrated, they aren’t nearly good enough to challenge the Lords. I would expect a 7-2 or 8-1 Kenyon victory in that one.
The match of the weekend is…
#20 California Lutheran @ #12 Pomona-Pitzer
When these two teams met in Thousand Oaks last year, Pomona won a 6-3 encounter in which the result of the team match was never really in question. Pomona’s lineup looks a lot like it did last year. The heart of their lineup shifted around a little, they added a great #6 in Connor Hudson, and they shuffled up their doubles teams, but overall, they are about the same team. Cal Lu, on the other hand, seems to be vastly improved. While they could compete with anyone in the country at the top of the singles ladder last year, they had absolutely no depth. They’ve improved their depth with a freshman and a transfer, but it remains to be seen whether the new guys are actually top 15 singles players.
This match is monstrously important for both teams, as they battle for a Pool C bid. Pomona-Pitzer left Indoors mostly empty-handed, but the experience should help them in this match. Cal Lu has only played Brandeis, who was proven not to be a legitimate top 30 team. I think the match breaks down like this:
-Pomona is probably the better doubles team. Cal Lu may be favored at #1 doubles, but you would have to pick the Hens at #2 and 3.
-Cal Lu is probably strong at the top of the lineup. The #1 singles match is a battle of vastly conflicting styles between Ballou and Meyer. Worley has to be favored over Sabel at #3, and the #2 singles match could go either way.
-Pomona is deeper… until Cal Lu proves otherwise. I think these two teams split the doubles and the top three singles positions 3-3, making this match come down to who can win at the bottom of the singles lineup. Hudson has already proved he is a very good #6, and Allinson was a capable #3 last year, so he should fare well at #5. Sousa struggled at #4 for the Kingsmen last year, but he should do much better at #6. Treacy and Millet are mostly unknown quantities for Cal Lu.
I really want to pick the Hens, but I’ve been taking some flak for not picking any upsets, so I’m just going to bank on the new Kingsmen being good and pick Cal Lu, 5-4, on Pomona’s home courts.
I think you hit the nail on the head, until proven otherwise they cannot be favored in those middle positions. Until they prove they can do something there’s no way I could predict a 5-4 upset. If this was in Thousand Oaks it would be one thing as they are a much tougher team there but going on the road I just don’t see it. Ballou losing to Brandeis is a big concern and he absolutely cannot lose either match for any shot. I predict 6-3 Pomona at the very least with a potential for more as I’m sure they’ll relish being back on their home courts after being away at indoors.