Snowmaggedon continues, and I continue to write previews and listen to Justin Bieber’s new album. Next up on my tour is the Wash U women’s team. As you know, I’ve become the D3Central Women’s writer until we find a replacement, so it’s time for me to earn the big bucks and get another Central article out. Shoutout to D3TennisGreek, who has taken this task on with me to ease the workload of dual writing. If you haven’t checked out his articles you probably should because he’s a lot more knowledgeable than me about Central region affairs. Good times, good times. On to the preview.
Coach: Kelly Stahlhuth, 11th Season
Location: St. Louis, Missouri
Preseason Ranking: #13
Twitter Handle: @WashUBears – this is a general Wash U sports account because Wash U isn’t about that twitter life.
Overview
Much like their male counterparts, the Wash U women’s team has been a staple in the top 15 for the past umpteen years. They finished at #12 last year, and were ranked #8 and #12 the two years before. Last year’s campaign ended in a tough way with a 5-4 loss to underdog University of the South, which was surprising to say the least. I would like to say that I was very high on the Tigers last year, but this was definitely an out of nowhere result. This year, Wash U would love to get back to that Elite 8 team they were the year before. They didn’t lose that many players this year and they bring back a good core, led by junior Rebecca Ho, so I am expecting some big things. With the state of women’s being so top-heavy, this is a team that shouldn’t need to worry about dropping. What they do need to worry about is how to get back into the top 10. Let’s take a look at their lineup and their schedule to see if/how they’ll get there.
Key Additions: Danielle Buchinsky (3 Star Freshman), Lisa Chionis (3 Star Freshman), Brigitte Hodge (3 Star Freshman)
Key Losses: Hanna Newstadt (#5 Singles, #2 Doubles)
Lineup Analysis
#1 Singles, Rebecca Ho – UTR 9.25
Rebecca Ho has been Wash U’s undisputed #1 singles player for a long time now and her Universal Tennis Rating shows us that she should be considered their far and away best player. While I don’t necessarily believe that’s true, I do think she is the #1 player for the rest of the year. She compiled a ridiculous 15-2 record against ranked teams last year, beating basically every women’s player under the sun outside of EUDICE. This year, she faltered in the Central ITA in a big surprise to Rachel Kim of Chicago. I won’t talk much about that, but Ho should be able to overcome that slow start and be a dominant #1 player this year as she always is. Chicago freshman are a different type of breed, so I won’t look much into that. Look for Ho to repeat that record from last year simply because there is no reason to not think she can.
#2 Singles, Jamie Silverberg – UTR N/A
I’m going out on a limb here and saying that Silverberg is going to be the #2 Bear this year for Wash U. Reasoning is that she played #2 for the Bears all last year with pretty decent success AND is a senior. While she didn’t get to play in ITAs, which I hope was because she was studying abroad, Silverberg is an experienced player that Coach Stahlhuth can definitely slot in at #2 with confidence that she can handle the pressure. There was a period last year where Silverberg rattled off a 10 match win streak, which I can tell you that I’ve never done. Silverberg is going to be a key for the Wash U lineup this year as they may be relying on some younger players at the bottom of the lineup. If Wash U gets an above average season out of Silverberg, they have a top 2 that they can really rely on to get some wins every match.
#3 Singles, Brigitte Hodge – UTR 8.66
Freshman alert! I am slating Hodge in here at #3 singles due to her extremely high UTR score, but also because of her pedigree. Hodge was ranked #165 coming out of her TRN class, which is the highest out of the three freshman recruits Wash U brought in. Look at the focus in her TRN picture, I mean c’mon. Anyways, Hodge has a high UTR due to the fact she continued to play a ton of tournaments this summer. That’s a good thing for any college player coming in because it means they haven’t gone into the tank despite making it into a good school. Hodge had a tough draw at ITAs falling to an unseeded Chicago player who ended up making the Round of 16. While I think that #3 singles might be a stretch for Hodge, Wash U doesn’t really have too many other options to play in the middle of the lineup. Hodge is going to have an up and down year if she plays here, and that’s a big if anyways.
#4 Singles, Kate Lee – UTR 8.44
I’m really going out on a limb at these bottom spots because it seems like Wash U has a ton of players that can basically play #4-6. Kate Lee is an up and coming sophomore who actually didn’t crack the lineup last year. ASouth, why are you so high on Lee then going into this year? Well, it seems like she’s made improvements in her game, leading to her semi-reliable 8.44 UTR, and she had a very memorable ITA. Despite being unseeded, Lee was able to make it all the way to the quarterfinals where she eventually fell to Ariana Iranpour, who just so happened to win the tournament. Not to mention, she gave Iranpour probably her toughest match yet in a 3 set loss. This is not something I expected from Lee as she barely played in the lineup last year. Adding Lee to the singles lineup would be a big time boost to the Bears, because it means they could put some of their slightly overmatched middle of the lineup players in spots where they might better fit. Lee is a bit of a wild card at #4, but if she plays like she did at ITAs there are good things in her future.
#5 Singles, Aly Coran – UTR 7.66
Coran played exclusively #3 singles last year and seemed to be slotted in at that spot this year based on seeding at ITAs. One thing I will say is that it looks like Wash U could do a better job of seeding their players going into ITAs, because a lot of their seeds struggled. Coran actually didn’t have a bad tournament, where she made the round of 16, also losing to Iranpour. However, she got blown out by Ariana while Lee went the distance. That is a big difference in my eyes. Coran was a bit overmatched at #3 last year and I think in her senior year she will move down to #5 where she will have much more success. She played a lot of #4 singles back when she was a freshman, so this could be a great way to end her career. Everyone loves winning, right? Don’t be surprised if Coran moves up in the lineup due to seniority, although I think that would be a mistake. If Coran is slotted here, Wash U has an almost automatic win against everyone except maybe the top 5.
#6 Singles, Grace Deering – UTR 7.93
Despite having a higher UTR, Grace Deering has consistently played under Coran every year and I believe this year to be the same. Old habits die hard. Deering played exclusively at #4 last year and had great success unless it came against top opponents. She suffered tough losses to USouth, Chicago (x2), CMU, and CMS. She was able to take one match from Chicago and CMU each, but overall it was always a battle. Placing Deering at #6 makes her a potentially automatic win down at the bottom, but who knows what Coach Stahlhuth is going to do. I wouldn’t be surprised if Coran and Deering take their usual spots at #3 and #4. Even though I think that is a mistake, there probably is a 50/50 shot of that happening. Sigh. Deering at #6 would be super legit.
Doubles
At the end of the year, Wash U’s strength was doubles. They swept Chicago 3 times at the end of the year and took leads against Depauw, Sewanee, and CMU. This was the key to their late season resurgence after they started the year losing to both CMU and Chicago. The good part about all this is that they bring 5 of their 6 doubles players back from last year. Chemistry means a lot in doubles. While their #1 team of Ho/Silverberg might have a little bit of improvement to go, their #2 and #3 teams should be rock solid. This gives them a great chance to take leads on pretty much anyone outside of the top 5. With potential question marks in the middle of the singles lineup, doubles is extremely important once again for the Bears to reach their goals for this year.
Schedule Analysis
Wash U Schedule here:
http://bearsports.wustl.edu/sports/wten/2015-16/schedule
Wash U has a total doozy of a schedule this year. Basically, they go to Indoors, Spring Break, a Central trip, and then UAAs. That brings the best of the best in Women’s, which I love. Let’s start with Indoors. Indoor Nationals is going to be a great opportunity for the Bears. They start with Pomona Pitzer, who is actually a sleeper pick this year to come out of the West region. Wash U is probably overmatched in this one. Next up would be the loser of the MIT/Sewanee match and you know the Bears are licking their chops for a potential NCAA revenge match. Overall, I think Wash U is happy if they come out of this tournament with 5th or 6th place. That gets them a tad bit higher in the rankings and into the top 12. That’s a good start!
Wash U will then head to Spring Break shortly after Indoors, where they will play 4 big time ranked matches, each with their own set of potential. They’ll play Redlands and then Pomona AGAIN, where Wash U should be happy with a split. I just don’t think they have the goods to take out Pitzer, but Redlands should be a nice resume win for them. They will then move on and play some highly ranked NESCAC opponents in Wesleyan and Bowdoin. Wesleyan is a classic example of a potential trap match. They’ll be coming off a tough one against Pitzer and potentially looking forward to the match against Bowdoin. They can’t overlook Wesleyan because that is a team on the rise. Both of these matches are huge and if Wash U takes both they can consider their Spring Break a massive success. Win one and Wash U basically held serve on the trip. While that isn’t bad, I have goals, people.
The Bears will then finish with a ton of UAA opponents in Case and Chicago and then the UAA tournament. Wash U is the third ranked UAA team right now and it’s not a great place to be. Case and Chicago are two programs that are on the rise or at least trying to come back to glory. Wash U is consistent but vulnerable to both of those teams. If the Bears can win these two matches and then take 3rd in the UAA, that’s a success. If they don’t, they put themselves in precarious position for NCAAs. I think the Bears will end up either losing to Case/Chicago in either the dual matches or the UAA tournament, making hosting and seeding for NCAAs very interesting. Assuming Wash U makes NCAAs (4 UAA teams normally make it), their season will determine if they have the potential to make the Elite 8.
D3ASouth’s Keys to Success
- Find the Perfect Lineup – Coach Stahlhuth has some big decisions on her hands this year. I think she has a lot of talent at the bottom of the lineup but will have problems in the middle. Since a lot of her girls are around the same talent level, it will be up to her to optimize her lineup and get the most wins possible. As D3Central always says, all you gotta do is get 5 points. Will Stahlhuth be able to put aside some of the pitfalls that most coaches run into and put talent where talent belongs? Will the seniors accept lower positions for the betterment of the team? We shall see. Then again, I might be wrong about all this and Wash U comes out with the same lineup as last year. Tough life being a blogger.
- Silverberg the Senior – The big question mark going into Spring is where is Jamie Silverberg. The #2 player has not seen the court in the fall and if there is some type of injury, that would be devastating to the Bears. If she comes back as the strong #2 player we know her to be, that allows the rest of the lineup to slot comfortably in place. I can’t see the girls behind her moving up and being able to have continued success at higher positions. The way the team is set up now could be the perfect mix of studs and depth. Silverberg’s participation is key to that formula.
Conclusion
Obviously, it took me a little while to finish this up but I’m all set. Watch out for an Emory Men’s preview coming out this week. And without further ado, ASouth, OUT.
Very insightful comments. Thank you.
No problem, keep em coming and tell your friends to keep asking!
What do you mean by Chicago’s freshmen are a different breed?
Under Coach Tee, Chicago’s freshmen have almost always come in and made immediate impact. Rachel Kim is a four star ranked #125 in the recruiting class, which is really good. I didn’t view Rebecca’s loss to Kim as a clear indicator that she should be knocked down from the #1 spot.
What do you mean by the women’s game is top heavy?
Compared to the Men’s game, the top 10-12 Women’s teams are much stronger in comparison to your lower ranked teams (#20-30). From my experience on the Men’s side, there are a handful of teams that can score top 15 upsets on the right day. That simply doesn’t happen as much in the Women’s game, most likely due to depth of talent. It’s well known that many Women’s players choose DI schools over DIII schools when it boils down to it.
Yes you nailed it ASouth – “It’s well known that many Women’s players choose D1 schools over DIII schools when it boils down to it.” Research has shown that boys/men do great in a big fish/small pond environment while girls/women do better in a small fish/big pond environment. I believe that’s part of the reason why you see more 5 stars/higher ranked boys go to D3 schools than the girls.
The reason why you see more women go to D1 can be summed up as “Title IX”. Better scholarship opportunities.
Pomona x 2, Bowdin, Wesleyan? They might go 0-4. It’s nice to have goals but what are the chances they don’t even go to the big dance? They seem like Chicago of last year. Is there a match that you think is a must have? MIT?
Definitely might go 0-4. I am predicting them to go 1-3 (with a win over Wesleyan). I said that taking both the Bowdoin/Wesleyan matches would be a massive success. If there is a match they have to have it’s the Wesleyan match. Wash U will only get in through the Pool C bid, where Wesleyan is a direct competitor. MIT is a big match and resume win (if they play), but MIT has already won the NEWMAC. Pool C bids are heavily favored to direct wins, so that Wesleyan match looms large on the schedule for the Bears.
Another match I would highlight would be the 3rd/4th place match at the UAA. The NCAA favors late season play, and the 3rd place match would be against a direct Pool C competitor. So if that match is Chicago/CMU, that becomes huge. So to summarize,
1. Wesleyan
2. UAA 3rd/4th