2016 Women’s Season Preview: #1 Williams Ephs

Location: Williamstown, MA

Head Coach: Alison Swain, 9th year

Twitter Handle: @WilliamsWTennis

2013 National Ranking: #1
2014 National Ranking: #3
2015 National Ranking: #1
2016 Pre-Season National Ranking: #1

Intro:
Welcome to my last preview of the season, where I talk about the #1 Williams Ephs! Men’s, Women’s, any division, Williams has been a true dynasty. In the 2000s, they have won NINE championship titles. From 2008-2013, they won SIX STRAIGHT. In my opinion, they pulled the most incredible feat of all last year – going into the NCAA quarterfinals, the team was undefeated and looked to be the clear favorites to win it all, as only Bowdoin (who wasn’t even in the quarterfinals) had pushed them to 5-4 in the spring. And then for unclear reasons, they lost their dominant #1 singles/#1 doubles player, Maria Pylypiv. They had to move everyone up in the singles lineup and play with brand new doubles teams, including 2 first years at #1 doubles. Somehow they made a relatively easy path to the finals (def DePauw 5-0 and defeated Amherst 5-1) for a meeting with defending champions Emory, who I’m sure were chomping at the bit to play against a Pylypiv-less Williams team. It all came down to Linda Shin, who, if you remember from last year’s NCAA semifinal match against Amherst, had double faulted at match point with the team match tied at 4-4. Here she was, with the finals match against Emory knotted at 4-4, with a big chance for redemption. And she came through, winning it 6-3 in the third, to give Williams yet another championship.

Lineup Analysis:

Let’s take a look at my projected lineups for Coach Swain’s Ephs

UTR Power6 Rating (the sum of the supposed top 6 players on a team): 54

#1 Singles: Juli Raventos, sophomore, 9.75
Raventos is the proud owner of EUDICE’s one and only loss to D3 opponents so far. She also dispatched last year’s only 5-star D3 recruit, Victoria Yu, in straight sets. Although, strangely, she did not participate in this year’s ITAs, she is off to a good start, going 7-0 so far. She got to the semifinals of last year’s NCAA singles tournament, and should be the clear choice for the #1 spot.

#2 Singles: Linda Shin, junior, 9.40
Last year’s NCAA hero! With a UTR of 9.40, she probably (too lazy to do the research) has the second best UTR as a #2 (Victoria Yu has a 10.20). She and Raventos will be the underdog in the Wesleyan match, but the rest of the team will be able to pull them through.

#3 Singles: Mia Gancayco, sophomore, 9.09
Gancayco played anything from 4-6 last year, and wound up at #4 for the Ephs. Her only team losses were to Emory (x2) and Middlebury. She was 7-2 this fall, with both losses coming to Lily Bondy of Middlebury who is on fire. She also has an impressive straight set win over Likhanskaia, who seemed to have a down fall after making it all the way to the finals of the NCAA tournament AND being the only D3 player last year to take a set off of EUDICE.

#4 Singles: Julia Cancio, sophomore, 9.23
Cancio is 6-1 this fall with her only loss coming to Victoria Yu of Wesleyan. Last year she played anywhere from #4-#6 but wound up at #5. Impressively, she spent all of last year at #1 doubles.

#5 Singles: Korina Neveux, freshman, 8.58
The lone freshman in the singles lineup, Neveux was 7-4 for the fall. She had a notable 3 set win against Monteagudo in their dual match against Amherst.

#6 Singles: Alex Stone, senior, 8.10
Stone also went 7-4 for the fall. She played #6 as a freshman but has not really seen the lineup since then. Will she get the nod as a senior? Or will it be a revolving door of players in the 6th slot? Other possible players are Hannah Atkinson, Leah Bush, and Maya Hart.

Doubles:
The doubles teams that Swain put together for the Amherst match were: Raventos/Shin, Hart/Gancayco, Cancio/Bush. As we all know, doubles is an ever changing equation, so we shall see what will click in the spring!

Schedule Analysis:

Here’s Williams’ schedule: http://ephsports.williams.edu/sports/wten/2015-16/schedule
9/20 #32 Wellesley, 9-0
10/3 #3 Amherst, 9-0
3/12 at #16 Skidmore
3/19 v #11 Hopkins
3/20 v #10 W&L
3/25 v #4 CMS
3/26 at Georgia Gwinnett, #33 Trinity TX
3/27 v #14 DePauw
3/30 at #2 Emory
4/9 #5 Middlebury
4/10 #17 Wesleyan, Conn
4/15 #9 MIT
4/16 at #3 Amherst
4/23 at #8 Bowdoin
4/24 at Bates
4/30 at #31 Babson, #24 Tufts
5/6-5/8 NESCACs at Bates

The Ephs begin their spring season at Skidmore (UTR Power6 = 44), a match that they should be able to handle without too much trouble. Then they play a couple of ASouth schools in Hopkins (UTR Power6 = 51) and W&L (UTR Power6 = 46). They should be able to take care of W&L with ease, as they are going through a rebuilding year, but Hopkins might get interesting, especially as they are playing so early. If Hopkins has a great day, they can claim the upset. Next they have a 5 match stretch in Georgia and first up is CMS. CMS is decently strong at the top (but Williams is stronger), but they fall off a bit at the end of the lineup, so Williams should be able to get some sure points down there. Next they play Georgia Gwinnett, the #1 ranked NAIA team (who knew!) They have a UTR Power 6 of 50, and what’s striking is that their lineup is exactly like Wesleyan’s lineup! Their top 2 players have a UTR of 10+, while the rest of their lineup ranges from 7.25-8.50, They also play Trinity of Texas that same day. While Trinity (UTR Power6 = 43) seems to be moving in the right direction, even getting a point off of Williams will be a victory for them. Next they face DePauw (UTR Power6 = 37!), another team doing major reconstructing, as they had a very senior heavy team last year. Williams will have their hands full in their next match, against Emory (UTR Power6 = 55). They match up close at every position, with Emory looking like they have the deeper team. Plus they should be itching to play after that 4-5 stinger of a loss in the finals last year! I don’t normally call matches before they happen but I’m calling it for Emory on this one!
Williams heads back home to face their familiar regional and conference foes. They start off with Middlebury (UTR Power6 = 53), a tough team to start conference play with. Middlebury stepped up their recruiting efforts and brought in a strong class this past year. With the improvement of Bondy and hopefully a healthy Gerger, this is going to be a close match. If no Gerger, then not close. Next they play the much talked about Wesleyan (UTR Power6 = 51) team. I will be curious what doubles pairings Coach Fried puts in there for this match. I’d like to see him take a little risk and go for 2 of 3 and put a little panic into Williams. As I said in my Wesleyan preview, if they do get 2 out of 3 points, and then count on Eudice and Yu to get their singles points, then they just need one of the other players to be a hero! Next Williams has MIT (UTR Power6 = 49). While Williams should take care of this match, MIT is my surprise team. They either lay an egg or do something incredible, let’s see what happens that day. Next up is their rival, Amherst (UTR Power6 = 53). Although Williams beat Amherst 9-0 in the fall, I expect this match to be much closer. Next the Ephs head to Maine to play Bowdoin (UTR Power6 = 52) and Bates (UTR Power6 = 39). While Bowdoin is always a strong team, and gave Williams a 5-4 scare last year, I’m not too high on Bowdoin this year. Likhanskaia just had a not so good fall, and because they did not have a great recruiting year, they are lacking in depth while other teams around them have added new blood to their lineups. Williams finishes out their year against Babson (UTR Power6 = 42) and Tufts (UTR Power6 = 46 <--this will increase by at least 2 points as matches get played). While Babson is significantly weaker at every spot against Williams, Tufts should give them a good match. Tufts had a great recruiting year and their lineup is full of freshmen who don't know any better (this is a good thing!)   D3NEW’s Keys to Williams’ Season:

#1. All the teams will be coming at them full force. Williams will probably not finish their regular season undefeated but they need to do their thing and save their best for last.
#2. Will they be able to repeat as NESCAC Champions this year? What’s the formula for being able to peak at NESCACs as well as NCAAs?

Over and out,

NEW