Season Preview: #23 Wesleyan Cardinals

Wesleyan 2015-2016 Season Preview

OVERVIEW

Happy Friday, boys and girls. As we continue to work our way through the top teams in the country, today we have the Wesleyan Cardinals for you. Most of the other writers are about done with their preview schedules (~1 for ASouth, ~1 for West, 0 for Central, ~3 for Regional) but the because some of the NE isn’t allowed to start until Feb. 15, I have been given the gift of time. Over the past couple years I have given Wesleyan a similar gift. They are/have been a very talented team, with fairly disappointing results. Part of that is my fault, and some somewhat unrealistic hype. Therefore, I am going to try and scale back this year, however that is going to be difficult because I am once again very excited about this Cardinal lineup. The graduation of Stephen Monk hurts more for leadership than it does on the court, and Wesleyan has brought in a couple of talented players – one freshman and one D1 transfer. Their schedule will be brutal as always, but the Cards should be one of the more talented singles lineups, top-to-bottom, in the region. If everything breaks their way (I can’t believe I’m about to say this again), we may be looking at an NCAA team. If it doesn’t (I can’t believe this is a realistic possibility with this lineup) we could see this team struggle to make NESCACs…again. Here is what you need to know about the 2015-2016 Wesleyan Cardinals…

QUICK FACTS

Coach: Mike Fried, 4^th season (named interim coach in 2012-2013 and Head Coach in June, 2013)

Location: Middletown, Connecticut

Preseason Power Ranking: 17^th

Preseason ITA Ranking: 23^rd

Preseason ITA Regional Ranking: 9^th

Twitter Handle: @CardsTennis. One of the better twitter feeds out there. Steady dose of both men’s, women’s, and other Wesleyan sporting information/scores.

Key Additions: Joachim Samson (Philippines), Tiago Eusebio (Transfer from Wake Forest via Portugal).

Key Departures: Stephen Monk (team captain/#6 singles).

Most positive extreme overreaction I’ve heard during the fall: “Eusebio will play top of the lineup, and this team immediately moves into the conversation for top-3 in the NESCAC, and an NCAA berth. This lineup is crazy-talented and Wesleyan will finally put it to good use.”

Most negative extreme overreaction I’ve heard during the fall: “Pile on the hype. I will not drink NE’s Kool-Aid. The expectations go up without a single top-20 finish over the past couple years. This year will be more of the same, and it will only hurt that much more when Wesleyan once again finds themselves following NESCACs from home.”

Projected Singles Lineup

Michael Liu, Junior, UTR 12.10, Range #1-#3: Here comes the uncertainty right off the bat. Not about the talent, but about who will play at the top of the Cardinal lineup. Liu held down the top spot last spring, so his name goes first on this list. In 2014-2015 Liu had a good year at #1, qualifying for NCAAs and winning a round before falling in 3-sets to Cardenas (ex-Cal Lu #1). However, his fall results have been less than stellar. There’s no shame in losing to Matt Heinrich (Stevens #1), but a loss to Raghavan (Williams #4-5) at the 2^nd round of the ITA was surprising. Liu played #1 dubs last year too, but didn’t play at the ITA this fall. I expect him to play high in the doubles lineup again this spring, but his singles spot is probably more dependent on the two guys listed below him, as both are something of a wild card.

Steven Chen, Sophomore, UTR 12.08, Range #1-#3: Chen played both #2 and #3 as a freshman last year, and was pretty darn good at both spots. His only loss at #3 came to Marino (ex CMS #3), and he had wins over Mbithi (ex-Trinity #2), Schidlovsky (projected Williams #3-4), and Murad (Colby #2). His fall results once again inspire confidence (Chen has made at least the semis at both of this two ITA appearances). This time he notched straight-set wins over Glickman (Trinity #1-2), and Granoff (Brandeis #1), before falling to the undisputed champion of the DIII world, Noah Farrell (Midd #1). Chen also waxed Foran (Stevens #2) in the Wesleyan/Stevens dual match. A year younger than Liu with a ton of unbridled talent, it would not be a huge surprise to see Chen take the top spot at some point this year.

Tiago Eusebio, Sophomore, UTR 12.9 (0% reliability), Range #1-#6: Ah yes, the real wild card. Very little is known about Eusebio, except that he is a transfer from Wake Forest, is Portuguese, and (for what it’s worth) was top-5 in the country as a junior. He didn’t play much for Wake this fall season (who by the way was a top-20 D1 team last spring), so we really don’t know much about him. Here is what I’ve been told. He’s not the biggest kid in the world (about 5-9), but he can flatten out a groundstroke. He does hit a loopier forehand, especially when he gets into trouble, but steps in nicely on both sides. His UTR is very unreliable as it stems from only a few match results. All that being said, it would be a shock to me if Eusebio didn’t come in and help the Cards right away. He’s still not listed on the Wesleyan lineup, but I believe he is eligible to play this spring? Any more information about the newest Cardinal would be greatly appreciated. IF, and that’s a capital-I capital-F, Eusebio is as good as some people are saying, he will play top-3 and catapult the Cards into the Pool-C discussion. That’s a big “if”, but it’s certainly possible.

Jake Roberts, Junior, UTR 11.83, Range #3-#5: Taking up Monk’s title as the Pale Pioneer, Roberts has a ton of firepower that he has to learn how to control. The kid’s forehand is gigantic, but prone to mistakes. He scored a great win over Telkedzhiev (Tufts #1) at the ITA, but fell to Raventos (Williams #1-2) in the 3^rd Roberts also got a win against Stevens, needing a superbreaker to beat Drake (Stevens #3, to be fair, Drake is playing very well and I expect big things from the Duck this year.) Roberts played #1 his freshman year, and mainly #3 last year with varied results. He should be able to produce more wins in the bottom ½ of the lineup, where he will be able to more often overpower his opponents. If the Cards can be successful with Roberts at #4 or #5, they will be an extremely dangerous team.

Dhruv Yadav, Sophomore, UTR 11.77, Range #3-#6: Yadav had a fantastic freshman year, going 10-3 mainly at #4, with his only regional losses coming to Tercek (projected Bowdoin #2) in a superbreaker and Revzin (projected Amherst #4). This fall Yadav handled Persson (Stevens #4-7) with ease (Stevens didn’t play a couple of guys (Feldman/Polk) that I thought would surely be in the lineup) and was thrown in at the ITA when Yaraghi pulled out with an injury. Yadav fell to Jackson (Midd #5-7) in two close sets. If Dhruv can keep up his momentum from last year, he should be a fantastic bottom of the lineup player. He could even be called on to play higher in the lineup, but given his type of play I think his best results would come at #5-6. In my mind, he is a more reliable lineup fixture than Eusebio or Samson (more on that coming), but if Wes is going to meet my lofty expectations he’ll have to play down here.

Joachim Samson, Freshman, UTR 12.36 Range # 3-7: Yet another Cardinal wild card. Jeez, if I didn’t know any better I’d begin to wonder whether there is some risk in my Wesleyan expectations? The Filipino Freshman didn’t play a whole lot this fall, but made a pretty loud splash whenever he did. He rolled past Sarthak (Stevens #6-bench) in the dual match, and knocked out Trinka (Bowdoin #1) in the 1^st round at the ITA. Not only did he beat him, but he beat him 3&1. Samson then had to default in his 2^nd round match, so he may need to work on his fitness (or injury prevention or whatever the reason was), but beating Trinka is a very promising start to a career. His ITF Junior page shows comparable results to Eusebio, but since he played below Yadav in the Stevens match my guess is that’s where he’ll start the spring season as well. You can see that my range has him anywhere between #3 and the bench, which I guess is a metaphor for Wesleyan’s season. It sounds like a broken record at this point, but if he starts and plays well, this team could be really good. If not, there are a couple of more than capable #6 players…

• Winn Smith, Sophomore, UTR 11.13, Range #5-bench: Winn has no singles results from this fall season. He did get to play against Stevens at #2 doubles where he (along with Yadav) won easily. Smith also played a lot of doubles last year, and has some nasty hands. He grinds you down in both singles and doubles, but his net play is probably the key to his game. I’d say he is likely to start in the doubles lineup this spring, but the singles lineup is more iffy. Winn did well at both #5 and #6 last year going 7-4 with wins over Redlands, Kenyon, and Amherst. If Eusebio and Samson both work out, it might be unlikely for Winn to see too much singles time; however, if (God forbid) an injury happens or somebody doesn’t live up to expectations, then Smith is probably the next man up.
• Cam Daniels, Sophomore, UTR 11.06 (70% reliability), Range #6-bench: I thought Cam was behind Winn in the lineup hierarchy last season, but Daniels got the nod at #6 against Stevens this fall so that throws my projected lineup into question. His only result was a 1&0 throttling of Perich (Stevens #6-bench) in that dual match, and not much else can be said about his fall season. Last year Cam went 2-4 at #6 singles, losing to the four teams he played that will be ranked in the top-30 this year (wins over Trinity Ct and Conn College. Daniels is a talented player who tracks down basically every ball, but when push comes to shove I still believe that Smith has a better chance to start.
• Michael King, Sam Rudovsky, and Zachary Brint, Seniors, UTRs 11.61, 11.12, 10.79, Range Doubles, #6 singles-bench (unlikely, but you never know) : The latter two are captains, and even with this talented of a lineup the seniors should not be forgotten. Zach-O is a lock to play in the doubles lineup, and my guess is that ‘s Rudovsky’s best shot as well. Both guys are energy dudes who lead the team. King consistently played as high as #2 singles and #2 doubles over his career, but now seems unlikely to make either lineup this spring. However, these seniors have been through some disappointing results, and it’s very possible that more than one of them will make a significant contribution this season. It is much more likely to come in doubles than singles, but if (for whatever reason) the #6 spot is losing a lot, maybe Coach Fried would go to a senior like King or Rudovsky to try and stop the bleeding.
• Greg Lyon and Cam Hicks, Juniors, Range #3 doubles-bench: Lyon and Hicks are the junior versions of the seniors listed directly above them. They have been on the team longer than most of the lineup players, and were both at one point 4-star California recruits. Lyon played a lot of doubles his freshman year, and some during his sophomore campaign. A semester away probably wont help his standing on the team, but who knows. Likewise, Hicks has played some doubles over the past couple years, and could be a guy who makes the doubles lineup later on in the season.

YOU CAN SEE THE WESLEYAN SCHEDULE HERE

Schedule Analysis: Shocker, but I like the schedule that Coach Fried has put together this year. The Cards start their season with a spring break trip to California where they start with D1 Georgetown, then HUGE non-conference matches against Pomona and Redlands. After the Cali based teams, Wes takes on George Fox and Trinity Tx  before heading back to Connecticut. While Pomona has a high ITA ranking, they are certainly a beatable team. Wesleyan should be favored over Redlands, and a heavy favorite against George Fox. The Cards will be underdogs against Trinity Tx, but the good news is that losses to both PP and Trin don’t necessarily preclude the Cards from having a successful season.

After returning east, Wesleyan’s 1st match NESCAC match is at Midd. Tough way to start, but again a loss here isn’t the end of the world. After Midd the Cards go to Conn, which is only dangerous if the Cards don’t pay any attention to it. That’s what’s called a trap-match, because arguably the biggest match of the season is the next day vs. Bowdoin. Last year the Polar Bears STOMPED the Cards indoors at Bowdoin, but this year the match is in Connecticut. If all goes well for Wesleyan, this match could be for 3rd place in the NESCAC, but for now Bowdoin is still certainly the favorite.

The next weekend is just as important for the Cards, and perhaps even more so as Wes takes on both Tufts and Williams in consecutive days. Upon first glance it doesn’t seem like Wes should be favored in either of these matches, but with Battle’s injury and the apparent emergence of a stronger Wesleyan lineup I see Wesleyan beating Tufts this year. Williams could be tougher, especially seeing as the Ephs generally play good doubles, but this match will certainly have a huge impact on how close either Wesleyan or Williams is in playing for a high NESCACs seed and possible (although unlikely) NCAA berth.

After Williams, Wes finishes its season with the softer portion of its schedule. The Cards should be favored in five of their final six matches (the only exclusion is Amherst). Wesleyan ends its year with Trinity, Hamilton, Amherst, Bates, Colby, and Brandeis. Wesleyan should have no issue with Trinity, Hamilton, or Colby. Brandeis could be a little trickier, especially if they have to play indoors on the Brandeis lightning courts. Bates beat Wesleyan last year, but that was indoors on the Bates courts. Wesleyan is a stronger version of Bates, so I think they should be able to take that match. Amherst on paper is too strong for Wesleyan, especially at the top of the lineup, but the Cards should be able to compete at the bottom of the lineup.

The end of the regular season should bring Wesleyan its 2nd-ever trip to NESCACs. They will likely be somewhere between the #4-#6 seed, which will give them a good chance to win a round at NESCACs for the 1st time in program history.

Season Prediction: As with the past couple Wesleyan seasons, there are a number ways this season could go. Within reason, this Wesleyan season could range from #25-30 in the country and 8th in the NESCAC/10th in the Region, all the way up to #11-#15 in the country and 3rd in the NESCAC/Region. Obviously I think the most likely scenario is somewhere in the middle, but at least until the matches start, I can get carried away in the Wesleyan hype! I’m saying that Wesleyan loses 5-4 to Pomona, beats Redlands, loses close (5-4 or 6-3) to Trinity Tx. The Cards then lose a tight match to Bowdoin before beating the rest of their NESCAC schedule that isn’t Middlebury or Amherst. That earns Wesleyan the #4 seed in the conference. There, they lose to Williams in the 1st round of the conference tournament, ending all hopes (albeit slight), of an NCAA bid. Some people will say i’m too far on the bandwagon, but others will say that I’ve actually de-hithced my wagon (so to speak). Simply put, there are bigger expectations for the Cards now, and with bigger expectations come bigger pressure and a bigger target on your back. A top-4 NESCAC finish would be a huge success for the Cards, but they have bigger goals. Just a quick reminder, they have no seniors in my projected starting singles lineup right now, making them somewhat vulnerable this year, but possibly even more dangerous in 2017! Pass the Kool-Aid…