2020 Season Preview: #6 Wesleyan Cardinals

I’m struggling to finish up my season previews but one of my two remaining teams actually plays a legit IMPORTANT match on Monday and time draws nigh. It is entirely possibly that we are embarking upon a season preview for a team that will make its first Final-Four in 2020. It’s also entirely possibly that we are beginning a journey into this program’s first truly disappointing season in the past five-ish years. The phrase Kool-Aid has been thrown around a lot over the years on The Blog, often times relating to me, but so far my biggest “Kool-Aid” predictions were the emergence of Wesleyan and Brandeis. If I’ve done nothing else in my almost decade here (i mean, we have a blogging content calendar now so that can’t be true), remember that and think of me fondly. Wesleyan is well coached, has talented players, and appears to have a solid player culture. As with any team, there may be a couple of prima donnas, but in recent years they have continued to shoulder larger and larger expectations with multitudes of success. This year (and next year) appear to be a window the likes of which the Wesleyan program has never seen before, true title contending years. Now, they are often young, and this year is no different, but once again we are looking at a team who may not be graduating any players, with a strong recruiting class incoming next year. If Wes can make a push for a Final-Four this year, we would have to list them among the absolute top tier of title contenders in 2021, a sentence that has never been written before about this program. All that said, there is a long road to travel in order to get there, and it starts on Monday with a big match against a suddenly top-10 Case Western team. We’ll get to that, but first a bit more info about the Cards.

LOCATION: Middletown, CT

COACH: Mike Fried (now entering his 8th season). Has led the program to new heights that just a few years ago would’ve been considered nothing more than a lazy daydream.

ASSISTANT COACH: Steve Rogers (4th season at Wes), Ben Shapiro (3rd season at Wes and reigning Assistant Coach of the Year), CJ Williams (2nd season at Wes).

TWITTER HANDLE: @wes_tennis

2020 ITA NATIONAL RANKING: #6

2020 ITA REGIONAL RANKING: #3

2020 BLOG POWER RANKING: #5

2018-2019 FINISH: The Cards earned a bye at NESCACs with the No. 2 seed after a season that included 6-3 or closer wins against Kenyon, Wash U, CMU, Tufts, Midd and a 6-1 drubbing of Amherst. However they also dropped close matches to CMS, Bowdoin and Williams before losing 5-3 to Midd in the NESCAC semifinal. The Cards’ excellent season was rewarded with their own NCAA Regional, which they breezed through including cruising to a 5-2 win over Kenyon to make their 2nd NCAA QF in the past three years. Their season ended in a tough loss to Midd, after taking a doubles lead the Cards got rocked in singles, leaving the program’s first Final-Four appearance for another year. Might this be that year?

KEY ADDITIONS: Brian Lee (South Korea, UTR=9.80) & Clay Gaieski (Pennsylvania, UTR=9.34).

KEY DEPARTURES: Princeton Carter & Jonathan Holtzman? Neither guy is listed on the roster as of Tuesday, March 3rd, but that doesn’t mean they actually aren’t on the team anymore. More on this in the roster section.

TWEET LENGTH REVIEW OF THE FALL: Plenty of good this fall but still plenty that left me wanting more. The top of the lineup has the ceiling but with it come some pretty big question marks, especially with multiple top players being abroad. Nothing to suggest this team won’t be able to contend, but nothing to suggest it will be easy either.

STOCK WATCH: It depends on who you ask. I have sources telling me that the Cards are more than just a team to watch and are the favorites to win the NESCAC, and others saying they are definitely underdogs going into Monday’s match against Case. This is a big risk/big reward gamble, so lots of upside here but not sure it’s for the AVZ’s of the world.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: Wes is super solid at all six singles spots, and figure out a way to win multiple doubles matches enough of the time. They lose to an Amherst or a Midd, but end the season tied for the conference top spot, get to at least the NESCAC Finals, host their own regional, get their first-ever NCAA QF win and have a real chance in an NCAA semifinal match against either Emory or CMS.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: The culture begins to crack at the seams, the doubles is troubles often putting Wes behind the 8-ball, and the top of the Cards lineup can’t get it done against other top-10 teams (of whom Wes plays six). The Cards stumble their way to a top-5 NESCAC finish but lose in the conference QFs and don’t even make NCAAs.

BOLD PREDICTION: Peter Anker finds a groove in the middle of the singles lineup and becomes one of the most reliable singles points for the Cards. Last year Anker was hyped…a lot, and while he did play #2 as a freshman, he struggled there for lots of the year. Sophomore Peter did not have a great fall, and thus the haters are out and about. However, as you’ll see below, the #’s 2-4 on this team appear to be pretty close, and if Anker gets moved down a spot or two, it might lead to an early win or two, which in turn could really help with his confidence, which in turn would lead to more wins. That said, a demotion could also have the opposite effect on a player sooooooo…

NOT-SO-BOLD PREDICTION: Noah Lilienthal establishes himself as the best winner on this team. He was pretty dominant last year as a youngster, so that’s not a giant leap. However, that doesn’t mean he’ll end up playing #1 over Fink, who I think should not only play #1 singles but is in the mix for one of the best players in the region. I think Noah will win more matches than the other guys in the #1-4 range, and that combined with his and Roji’s doubles dominance means I have Noah slotted to win more matches than anybody else for the Cards this year.

3 THINGS TO NOTE:

1. 

   Do we have another royal exit on our hands? I don’t mean to cause alarm, but Princeton Carter is no longer on the Wesleyan roster. See for yourself https://athletics.wesleyan.edu/sports/mten/2019-20/roster. While I certainly hope this is just a misstep from a part of the SID’s office, the more likely scenario is that for some reason Prince is no longer a part of the squad. While Wes’ singles has the depth to absorb something like that, I’m not sure the doubles does. In addition, Carter would’ve been the lone starting senior, and has proven to be an emotional provider for this team over the past few years as well. I don’t believe that losing him will be the end of this team’s chance to compete, but I also don’t think it will help.

2. The Zach’s are Bach. The most pleasant surprise of the fall came from Zach Fleischman, the lone team captain, who had a deep run at the ITA, and overall had a very nice fall for somebody who I didn’t consider to be lineup-ready. If #1 is true (or maybe even not), then we might get the Zach Attach at the bottom of the Wes lineup this spring. While most of the attention was focused on Zach F. this fall, Zach L. also played well and is deserving of some hype. I’ll dive deeper in the lineup prediction section, but Lieb had big wins at both the ITA and the Wes tournament this fall, both times beating people who should play above him on very good teams. The Zach Stach at the bottom of the projected Wes lineup has the potential to be filthy in 2020.
3. What happens at 2-3-4? One of the “hardships” of having a very talented singles lineup is the difficult decision in who to play at what spot. While I think Fink should be set as the team’s #1 to start the year, Lilienthal, Anker and Roji are all probably competing for that #2 spot in some fashion. As you can guess by my bold prediction section above, I think Lilienthal has the best chance to find success at #2, but perhaps if Anker continues to struggle they go the optimization route and play Peter at #2 with Lili and Roji behind him? I have no idea who will be playing which spot on Monday against Case, and it’s entirely possible that the three guys shuffle around a lot in the early part in the season.

LINEUP PREDICTION

1) Andrew Finkelman, junior, UTR=12.19, Range #1-2: Fink burst onto the scene as a freshman, and was once again one of the top players in the region as a sophomore. He didn’t play this fall (i assume he was abroad as can be the norm for juniors), but I expect him back and at the top spot next week. Last spring alone he had wins over Cuba, Wei, Hillis, Downing, Kam, and Zalenski (although he also lost to Cuba and Zalenski at NCAAs). I’m not expecting Fink to go undefeated this spring, or anything close to it, but if past results show us anything it’s that he’s going to play a lot of three-set matches and given the talent in the rest of this singles lineup I think that should provide the Cards a great chance to win a lot of matches.

2) Noah Lilienthal, sophomore, UTR=11.75, Range: #1-4: As you might be able to guess, I’m high on Lilienthal entering his sophomore season. He looked really good really often last year, and if he’s taken any sort of leap from his freshman spring then he should be in a great spot to win wherever he plays in this lineup. The fall did nothing to derail my hype train, as he made the semis of the ITA with wins over Coramutla (Brandeis #2) and Ward (projected Midd #2-4), before pushing Sorkin to 3 sets (the only one to do so in the tournament). At Wes he had a brutal draw getting Gorelik in the 1st round whom he survived, but 12-10 in a super and was forced to retire up a set in his next match. The lil’ lefty is on my players to watch list in 2020, and I’m looking forward to see what he can do with another year under his belt.

3) Adrian Roji, junior, UTR=11.48, Range: #2-4: Roji is yet another swing guy who could very well play anywhere in the 2-4 range. He’s gotten consistently better through his first two years, and if his junior year stays on the same trend line we could see big things in 2020. Like Fink, he didn’t play this fall so he was likely abroad. Also like Fink, he will be integral to the teams’ success this spring. Yet Roji’s biggest strength might be his doubles play. Last year he and Noah ended the season as the No. 2 team in the entire country. Not too shabby. This year that duo will need to provide A LOT of points at #1 dubs if the Cards are going to contend. Given the chance at rust after a season away, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Roji playing #4 to start the year, but I think there’s a good chance he finishes the year at #3 or higher.

4) Peter Anker, sophomore, UTR=11.54, Range: #2-5: Another from an extremely strong sophomore class, the Norwegian Ridgeback did not have a very good fall. He lost to Alex Taylor (projected Williams #4-6) in two quick sets at the ITA, and then lost in the first round to Sharda (projected Tufts #3) in straight sets in the first round at Wes. Tough matchups, but the types of players Peter would very likely play this season. He slotted in at #2 for the Cards as a freshman, and might do so again, but also could easily play behind Lili and/or Roji. Last year Anker showed flashes of brilliance with huge wins over Bernardo Neves, Noah Farrell (TWICE!), Kevin Ma, and maybe Jerry Jiang depending on you read the result. I’ve already given you a bold Anker prediction, so let’s hope the big man comes out swinging this spring and proves me right. If he does, he might be able to carry Wes to that next level.

5) Zach Lieb, sophomore, UTR=11.72, Range: #4-7: The first of the Zach Pach, Lieb built off a strong end to his freshman campaign with good results again this fall. He made the quarters of the ITA with a big win over Kam (projected Williams #1-2) and then a win over Pentousis (projected Tufts #4) before falling to Sorkin. Then, he followed up that performance by beating Jeff Chen (Brandeis #4) who already has wins over Wash U and Emory this year. He eventually got beaten off by Wang (projected Bowdoin #2-4) 10-7 in a super. Last year at the bottom of the lineup, Lieb won some big matches including going undefeated against Midd and getting wins over Wash U, Trinity Tx, Kenyon and CMS on Wes’ spring break. Similar to Lilienthal and Anker, if Lieb has made even a slight jump between years, he should do quite well down here.

6) Zach Fleischman, year, UTR=11.62, Range: #4-7: The second member (or first if by seniority) of the Zach Smach, Fleisch’s fall was one of the biggest surprises out there. We almost always have some player that jumps from outside the lineup to the top half, but seeing Fleisch go from somebody who wasn’t even in the doubles lineup last year to a virtual lock for a singles spot is almost as close. Plus, those are usually sophomores who have trained and made a big leap after their freshman year, it’s much rarer to see that after a sophomore year. Now, he really only had one great tournament, but that weekend involved making the semis at the ITA (with wins over Bradley-projected Bowdoin #2-4, Vanezis-projected Midd #3-6, and Gorelik-projected Tufts #2). He then lost in the first round at Wes to Turchetta (projected Amherst #4-6). If he has gotten a lot better, then this will be a position of strength for the Cards, but if not then it could be a big swing the other way.

In the hunt: Princeton Carter??? (senior, UTR=11.14), Marcus Sweeney (junior, UTR =10.12). I touched on Prince in my 3 things to note section, but given the fall of both ZACHs Prince was nowhere close to a singles lock. That said, for me he’s pretty damn close to a doubles lock. He would’ve been in my #2 dubs team (with Sweeney?) after Lili/Roji at 1. I think we have to operate under the assumption that he is no longer on the team, but if that name reappears in the next couple days it would be big not only for leadership and the doubles, but also to provide some singles depth in case anybody has to miss time. I added Marcus Sweeney here as a doubles specialist. If Prince is indeed out, that makes it even more likely that Marcus will be in the starting doubles lineup on Monday. You’ll notice I didn’t include either freshman in this section. I originally had Brian Lee included here, and he did get a chance at the fall ITA so maybe I should have him, but I don’t see him playing unless somebody (maybe even more than somebody) is out.

SCHEDULE ANALYSIS

Usually I start this section with a broad outlook, but not today. Wes jumps right into the swing of things with a HUMUNGOUS match against Case Western on Monday afternoon in Florida. While the rest of the week brings teams who will certainly be ranked in the top-20 of our soon-to-be-released Power Rankings, this is the biggest one in terms of Pool-C as Case already has a win over Wash U in addition to its win over Kenyon (who Wes plays later in the week). It’s not a must win for either squad, but it should be an EXCELLENT early barometer for just how this season could go for Wes. It’s nearly impossible to do a match-by-match preview when we haven’t seen anything from Wes yet this year, but as of this moment I like the Cards to come through in a 5-4 nail biter, getting at least three wins from #2-6 in singles.

The rest of the spring break brings Kenyon, CMU, and a suddenly resurgent Hopkins squad. I would be suprised if Wes loses any of these three matches, though all three present different challenges (Kenyon with the super strong top-2, CMU with what could be a must-win mentality, and just a very hot Hopkins team). If the Cards do leave Florida 3-1 they are in fine shape, although I’m sure Coach Fried’s ever-growing ulcer will expand by more than a little bit. If they come out of Florida undefeated, then we’ll know they are absolutely a contender and we won’t have to wait long to see how they stack up against a top-5 team.

That’s right, while the immediate aftereffects of spring break are Coast Guard and Wilkes, Wes hosts Brandeis on March 22nd, which will very likely be the biggest NE match of the year to date! Brandeis has the edge in doubles, and while Wes probably does in singles, it’s slight and I would be VERY surprised to see either team pick up an easy win in that one. After Brandeis it doesn’t get much easier as the Cards go up to Bowdoin. True, Bowdoin is likely to have something of a down year, but you don’t really want to be playing the most consistent NESCAC team of the last 5 years at Maine Pines at any point during the season.

April brings most of the rest of the conference, including Midd to start the month, who the Cards played three times last year (dropping both postseason matchups after winning the regular season affair). After the Panthers, Wes travels to Williams and Amherst on a heck of a weekend road trip; however, the Cards end the season with a lighter portion of their schedule including at Colby, and home against Hamilton, Bates, Tufts and Trinity to finish. Of those five matches, Tufts should be the toughest, and the Jumbos are the only team in that group I see challenging the Cards.

Ok, only one more season preview to go (sorry Williams, but that’s what you get when you don’t play a match until the 4th week of March!) Wesleyan is a team we’ve seen go through a lot during the past five years, and I’m excited to see what they can do in 2020 (and 2021). The range of outcomes is vast, but when the range is large that means the ceiling is also quite high. I’ll try to write a quick recap of Case/Wes on Monday night and what it means for the Cards looking ahead at the rest of their spring break. Monday at 3 p.m., I’ll be the one constantly refreshing the Case Western live stats page even though i know that doesn’t do anything…