2020 Indoors QF Preview #2: No. 3 Chicago vs No. 6 Kenyon

No. 3 (#4) CHICAGO vs. No. 6 (#11) KENYON

tl;dr – newCentral’s Predicted Box Score

1D – Kenyon def. Chicago 8-6

2D – Chicago def. Kenyon 8-4

3D – Chicago def. Kenyon  8-3

1S – Kenyon def. Chicago 6-4, 6-2

2S – Kenyon def. Chicago 4-6, 6-2, 6-4

3S – Chicago def. Kenyon 6-2, 7-6(5)

4S – Chicago def. Kenyon 7-6(1), 6-1

5S – Chicago def. Kenyon 6-4, 7-6(3)

6S – Chicago def. Kenyon 6-3, 6-0

The Maroon Kings of the Central begin their Indoors Defense with Kenyon College, the country’s eleventh best team who are also ranked third in the Central. 4th ranked (nationally) Chicago is currently 2-10 all-time against the Lords, but they were able to win their last meeting 6-3. Like many of the quarterfinal matchups, the winner’s path is paved with Pool-C opportunity while the loser’s path is littered with postseason hardship. Chicago is a strong favorite to move on to the National Indoors semis. Kenyon and Chicago, unlike most of our matchups, have already played the same teams this year so we will have some comparable matches to center our predictions. Kenyon defeated Kalamazoo 6-3 and defeated Depauw 8-1 while Chicago defeated both of those teams by identical 9-0 scores (Ian Yi sat the Chicago match and retired in the Kenyon match, do with that what you want). Kenyon’s two singles losses to Kalamazoo were in ten point tiebreakers, and while ten pointers are known-calamities it is concerning that Kenyon wasn’t able to flex any bottom-of-the-lineup depth against Kalamazoo. With Kenyon’s 5 and 6 looking less-than-national caliber (at their position), a lot of pressure is being placed on Zalenski and Diehl to secure their three points if Kenyon is going to have any hope of an upset. These lineups are as best as I can guess, with the only major change I could foresee would be Joshua Xu at 1 for Chicago; however, I predict that Coach Tee will start with his senior as the headliner. 

1 Doubles: Ninan Kumar (Sr.) & Tyler Raclin (Sr.) vs. Jake Zalenski (Sr.) & Austin Diehl (Sr.)

Tagline: “Battle of Concepts”

The 1 Doubles match between Chicago and Kenyon represents a battle of doubles concepts fought between Thielke and Tee with the two best* doubles players on each team. First the challengers, Zalenski and Diehl are the two best singles players on this court (and it isn’t close) and they’re more than familiar with each other as doubles partners after four will-they-won’t-they years of doubles at Kenyon. Zalenski and Diehl play classic Kenyon doubles – which is: two back and BIG groundstrokes until the opposing team coughs up a short ball or worse. On the other end of the spectrum, the favorites are led by the best doubles player in the region: Tyler Raclin. Raclin is the most decorated doubles player in recent memory, while Ninan Kumar has been the cornerstone of two Chicago 1 Doubles pairings (Kerrigan, Chua). Raclin and Kumar play classic Chicago doubles – which is: classic percentage doubles where you volley to the correct spot every time while focusing on closing towards your opponent’s weaknesses. This match featuring four seniors will set the volume and intensity tone for both teams throughout doubles. All four of these players are familiar with the moment and should handle the early game jitters with relative ease. I don’t foresee either of these teams blowing out the other and in a match that’ll be decided by a return or two, I’ll go with the better returners to steal a doubles point. Kenyon def. Chicago 8-6

* Jeremy Yuan and Erik Kerrigan both have valid claims

2 Doubles: Erik Kerrigan (Sr.) & Jeremy Yuan (Jr.) vs. Pascal Lee (So.) & Luis Andres Platas (Fr.)

Tagline: “Experience precedes Youth”

The 2 doubles match hit for the class-cycle with each grade being represented. Kenyon has elected to send out their two doubles wildcards Lee & Platas against Chicago’s 1B doubles team. Kerrigan & Yuan outclass the Kenyon underclassmen in power, doubles experience, and variety – Yuan was the groundstroke pillar of Yuan & Raclin and Kerrigan has made deep runs in the NCAA Doubles Tournament. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Kenyon upsets Chicago here unless the sheer breadth of options dares Chicago into inopportune errors and bad shots. It’s not unfathomable to see Lee and Platas tree their way through a break or two, but I wouldn’t put my freebet on it. In the end, I predict that Kerrigan and Yuan will be a little too much at the business end of every game for the Young Lords. Chicago def. Kenyon 8-4

3 Doubles: Sachin Das (Fr.) & Joshua Xu (So.) vs. Bryan Yoshino (Jr.) & Evan Dean (Fr.)

Tagline: “One-Way Traffic”

The 3 Doubles match outlook is bleak for Purple. Xu was Chicago’s breakout player from last season and Das is starting to look like this season’s breakout Maroon. Xu and Das are a class above Yoshino and Dean right now, and I think that this will be the first match off this Indoors Quarterfinal. If you haven’t seen it before, I recommend trying to check out Das’ game on the stream – it’s funky. Dean and Yoshino lack the pace and firepower to give them a “Puncher’s Chance” at an upset here. Kenyon will find themselves fighting uphill battles in every neutral point. Yoshino and Dean require a perfect strategy and a little help from Chicago in order to keep this close. I think that Chicago’s quality will really differentiate the two teams through the middle four games of the match and that stretch will lead to Chicago’s first point. Chicago def. Kenyon 8-3

Chicago leads Kenyon 2-1 after Doubles

1 Singles: Erik Kerrigan (Sr.) vs. Jake Zalenski (Sr.)

X-Factor – Zalenski’s 1st Forehand after the Serve/Return

If Chicago’s singles has a weakness it’s up here at 1 Singles with Kerrigan. While he’s dripping with 1 Singles experience, he hasn’t always brought his best in regular season dual matches. Zalenski on the other hand is one-half of Kenyon’s strength: 1-2 Singles have been rocks for Kenyon for the better part of two years now. This match is immensely important because a Kerrigan victory would be backbreaking to a Kenyon upset, and both teams – but mainly Kenyon – glean confidence from their 1 playing well. I think that the X-Factor here will be how quickly Zalenski can get Kerrigan’s big frame on the move after the serve or return, and I believe that he’ll aim to do so off his first forehand. How cleanly and consistently he’s able to take the upper hand by moving Kerrigan early in the point will determine the flow of this match. I think that Zalenski will take advantage of the Indoor conditions to end points quickly without allowing Kerrigan an opportunity to really sink his teeth into the match. Ignore all of this if Xu and Kerrigan switch Kenyon def. Chicago 6-4, 6-2

2 Singles: Joshua Xu (So.) vs. Austin Diehl (Sr.)

X-Factor – Xu’s Shot Tolerance

The Singles MVPs from both teams a year ago will face off in the number two spot to start their Indoors weekends. Xu has moved up from 5 singles at Indoors a year ago up to 2 (maybe 1) while Diehl has firmly entrenched himself as a national caliber two over the past two seasons. I think that both of these players play better outdoors than they do inside based on their gamestyles but neither is averse to indoor tennis. Diehl hits a heavier ball more consistently than Xu, but I think Xu can do more things on a tennis court than Diehl. With all the options at his disposal, I think that the X-Factor here will be Xu’s quality shot tolerance. The longer Xu’s comfortable hitting with Diehl the better he’ll do (fitness allowing). Deihl’s M.O. is to wear his opponents down with heavy groundstroke after heavy groundstroke with no end in sight. As long as Xu can maintain his shot tolerance and see the finish line in these slugfest points with Diehl, he should come out ahead. Average rally length in this one should rival Five Singles. Ignore all of this is Kerrigan and Xu switch. Kenyon def. Chicago 4-6, 6-2, 6-4

3 Singles: Sachin Das (Fr.) vs. Pascal Lee (So.)

X-Factor – Court Positioning

Chicago’s most exciting First Year plays Kenyon’s most exciting first year from a year ago. This match should result in the most entertaining points of the six singles matches with Das and Lee comfortably playing all three dimensions of the court. The X-Factor for both players will be their court positioning. Both players should try and flex all-court games at Indoors, so how they control their distance from the baseline will become even more important than normal. This match will be decided on how efficiently each player can cut off their opponent’s short angled shots. However, even if Lee is able to control both player’s court positioning, it may not be enough for him to eclipse Das this weekend. I think that Das will end up having a special season for the Maroons in 2020 and unfortunately for Lee he’s a side character in this Indoors tale. Chicago def. Kenyon 6-2, 7-6(5)

4 Singles: Jeremy Yuan (Jr.) vs. Luis Andres Platas (Fr.)

X-Factor – Yuan’s Mood

Yuan is one of Chicago’s best ball strikers and when he’s on can park himself on the baseline as well as anyone in the country. LAP is an anomaly with at least two similarly named brothers who boasted a solidly high highschool UTR (mid 11s). Yuan and LAP played earlier this season at Fall ITAs where Yuan bested the First Year 4 and 0. I can’t see this match going differently unless Yuan is really not feeling tennis that day. Yuan can be up and down with his mood and his play (more accurately his concentration) will follow. The first round of Indoors in a favorited match doesn’t seem like a typical time to tank but who knows with tennis players. I think Coach Tee and the Chicago Title Defense will embolden and support Yuan Chicago def. Kenyon 7-6(1), 6-1

5 Singles: Alex Guzhva (So.) vs. Bryan Yoshino (Jr.)

X-Factor – Yoshino’s Cross-Court Backhands from Guzhva’s Forehand

Guzhva vs. Yoshino isn’t going to break any speed limits. This match will be an absolute grind with both players aiming to physically break down the other by making ball after ball after ball after ball after ball after ball after ball. Both players are proficient at coming forward and ending points at the net, but I imagine that most points will look like 2020 Pong with each player staying home. Since neither player can really hit through the other, we’ll get a lot of looks at my X-Factor in this one: Guzhva CC Forehands to Yoshino OneHanded Backhand. All of Yoshino’s victory threads stem from being able to withstand an onslaught of CC forehands from Guzhva. If Yoshino can stay neutral or even offensive during points where Guzhva is picking on his one-hander with his forehand then Yoshino has a grinder’s chance at the upset. Guzhva isn’t infallible indoors but it’ll still require a heroic effort from Yoshino to win here. Chicago def. Kenyon 6-4, 7-6(3)

6 Singles: Alejandro Rodriguez (Jr.) vs. Henry Wessel (Jr.) /Evan Dean (Fr.) /Thomas Kallarakal (Fr.)

X-Factor – Kenyon Player X’s Ability to make Rodriguez’ Forehand uncomfortable

No one in the BlogChat is sure who Kenyon is going to put out against Rodriguez, but I’m not sure that it matters for this preview or the match. The points are going to be on Rodriguez’ racket (mainly that forehand) and unless one of the Kenyon First Years has been hiding some post-timeskip level defense, I’m not sure that they’ll be able to prevent Rodriguez from doing his thing. Kenyon’s revolving door needs to make Rodriguez uncomfortable hitting his forehand out of his backhand corner by any means necessary because if Rodriguez gets confident then his forehand starts being lethal from anywhere. Kenyon’s outmatched at the bottom of their singles lineup at the national level, and I think that Rodriguez will make that very evident. Chicago def. Kenyon 6-3, 6-0

PREDICTIONS

newCentral: Chicago def. Kenyon 6-3 

NE: Chicago def. Kenyon 7-2

AS: Chicago def Kenyon 5-0

AVZ: Chicago def. Kenyon 6-3

RegNEC: Chicago def. Kenyon 7-2

RegAS: Chicago def. Kenyon 7-2

NewReg: Chicago def. Kenyon 7-2

DIII West:  Chicago def. Kenyon 7-2

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