Central Region Preview Palooza

OOF – This preview got away from me and became longer than I had anticipated. So, pardon me for the longform here, but I think that this will make for some nice morning commute reading or pleasant I’m at work but I’m not ready to work reading. I tried uploading this earlier with my typical number of photos for a little more zing and a little more pep, but the WordPress overlords denied my fun. This preview will be split up into three major sections: the UAA teams (Chicago, Case, Wash U), the NCAC teams (Kenyon, Denison, Depauw, Oberlin), and the Northern teams (GAC, Kalamazoo, and Augustana). Many, if not all, of my Central teams have already begun playing – already this season: U Chicago is 3-0 after defeating Lewis and Augustana 8-1 and blanking Depauw 9-0; Case will have played Northwestern Ohio, Rose-Hulman, and Hope by the time this article is published; Wash U got beat up by Butler but has an enticing early season central matchup with #38 Carleton on Feb 9^th; Kenyon already defeated Case’s upcoming opponent Northwestern Ohio in a 5-2 affair; Depauw has gone 0-16 over two dual matches with Chicago and University of Indianapolis; Oberlin has dropped both of their matches in the new decade (CMU and Ashland) and have fallen to 1-2 on the season; GAC is in Florida already and have begun their trip on a two match winning streak defeating Warner U and Webber International U; Kalamazoo went 17-1 in two lopsided matches against Wabash and Earlham (wow Hornets coming at everything AVZ stands for); and Augustana has started 2-1 with a loss to Chicago after embarrassing Wabash and bullying Illinois Tech. 2020 tennis has already started (I’m positive that there will be Central results that happen during the drafting of this article that won’t be referenced… ¯\_(ツ)_/¯), but I still think that this preview will add some value to the d3 tennis discourse.

I’ll start with the oddball grouping of the “Northern Region” of Gustavus, Kalamazoo, and Augustana. My other two groupings are more logical because they are grouped by conference – here we have three Pool A teams: Augustana (CCIW Champions last season), Kalamazoo (MIAA Champions last season), and Gustavus Adolphus (MIAC Champions last season). Kalamazoo differentiates themselves from GAC (a lot) and Augustana (a little) because they are overwhelming favorites to repeat as MIAA Champions, while GAC and Augustana are just good old-fashioned regular favorites to repeat as champions.

Kalamazoo had a slight recruiting hiccup that ended their wild and historic MIAA championship streak; a streak that was so audacious that Kalamazoo Tennis’ site has a separate section dedicated to the achievement. While nothing’s impossible (or impossible is nothing if you’re about that three stripes life), I find it incredibly hard to even create a non-scandal scenario where Kalamazoo doesn’t repeat as MIAA champions again. Kalamazoo went 7-0 in conference last season dropping ONE conference match. I predict that Kalamazoo will repeat as undefeated MIAA Champions [Certainty Metric: 100%] Now to actually use the crystal ball – Kalamazoo plays Chicago, Kenyon, Denison, Trinity TX, Southwestern, Case Western, and UWW as their season-defining matches. (And to all the coaches that say that conference matches are the most important, I agree with you BUT for Kalamazoo – their success will be judged off these matches because we EXPECT Kalamazoo to take care of the MIAA. I’d heavily favor Kalamazoo against Denison & Southwestern and I would’ve included UWW until their 5-4 upset of Carleton, and it’d be a herculean effort for Kalamazoo to defeat Chicago, Kenyon, or Case this season. A good Kalamazoo season would be one where they defeat Trinity and UWW, take care of Denison and Southwestern handily, and play the top central teams to tight 4-5s. A good season probably ends with an MIAA title and a third seed in a tough Central region where they’ll try and upset Kenyon, Case, Chicago, or Wash U. [Certainty Metric: 75%] A great Kalamazoo season would have all of those aforementioned results but would include an upset of Chicago, Kenyon, or Case. Maybe a 5-4 upset their way could shake Pool C enough to eliminate a central trial before it even happens. [Certainty Metric: 14%] A bad Kalamazoo season would feature upset losses to Denison, UWW, or Southwestern and one-sided affairs against the other nationally ranked teams on their roster. They’d still be MIAA champions, but their postseason hopes would be slim to none. [Certainty Metric: 6%]

Kalamazoo has an interesting top three with Yi, Henry, and Metzler – all players who could upset (or get upset themselves as the Earlham match saw) nearly anyone at their position in the region – but I think that their lack of national-caliber singles depth coupled with a midtable doubles lineup sets their season’s ceiling at the NCAA Regional Third Round.

Last years CCIW Champions, Augustana, had one of their best seasons in recent memory. They went 25-7, undefeated in conference, and were able to avenge one of their few losses in the postseason in commanding fashion. Augustana already has an exciting storyline brewing this season, Caio DeRezende dropped U Chicago’s Erik Kerrigan 7-6(4), 6-4. With that victory, DeRezende is in the driver’s seat for a 6-8 spot in the region, and I think that he’ll run the table considering his only tossup matchup left is against UWW [Certainty Metric: 65%]. Aside from the DeRezende beat (#TBD), Augustana doesn’t have too many interesting storylines. I think that this season will look like last season for Augustana, but they won’t suffer a random loss to Luther and will likely improve on their 5-4 score lines against Coe and Rose-Hulman. The CCIW is to Augustana as the MIAA is to Kalamazoo. I predict that Augustana will repeat as CCIW Champions [Certainty Metric: 99%] but similar to Kalamazoo their ceiling is capped by whichever nationally ranked team they face in the postseason first. [Certainty Metric: 100%]. I would be shocked if Augustana had as many losses as last season (7), especially with DeRezende coming into his own while helping to secure two points every match.

Gustavus Adolphus College is the only Northern team I’m previewing that has a worthy challenger to its conference champion throne. Carleton has slowly been gathering arms to rally against Gustavus for the MIAC throne. GAC is also evaluated on a different scale than Kalamazoo or Augustana (recently because we know Kzoo used to be GOATed) due to their recent national success, which I’d argue could be attributed, at least in part, to hosting Indoors every other year – but that’s a conversation for a different time. GAC, like Kzoo and Augustana, went undefeated last year in conference defeating Carleton 7-2 in the regular season and 5-1 in the Conference finals (though it looks like it was going to be 7-2 again). GAC’s season really begins Feb 21 with Indoors. Last time in Minnesota, GAC nearly upset Emory in a 4-5 barnburner – this time around they open with another strong Emory team, but even with the homecourt + indoors + first match + close loss last time boosts I think that GAC will get nearly swept out of the building in singles. Outside of Indoors, which will offer GAC opportunities to throw wrenches into Pool C, GAC will travel south down King’s Road (RIP to good dialogue and the breastplate stretcher) to California to play Pomona-Pitzer and UCSC among other tan teams, GAC also has Chicago in Wisconsin and a date with Carleton on the eve of the MIAC Conference tournament. Unless GAC loses to Carleton [Possibility Index: 35%] GAC will be the 2 seed in Chicago, Kenyon, or Wash U’s region meaning they’d be one doubles sweep away from busting everyone’s bracket. RegionalNEC made a great point some time ago that went something like, “You don’t upset the nationally ranked or established power out of nowhere. You need some close losses [#statementloss] like 4-5, 3-6 at a minimum, before you can defeat the Champs,” and I think that is the right POV to view the MIAC in 2020. UNTIL, Carleton plays GAC close – and I’m talking 3-6 but the team hype man says it should’ve been 5-4 or 4-5 that came down to the last match on – I will always pick GAC to win the MIAC. I can’t see this GAC team playing the Central’s top dogs close this season. I predict that GAC will win the MIAC to start the decade, but will find themselves overmatched against the top tier in the region – GAC will be the best team in the next grouping of teams but the summit will be just out of reach. [Certainty Metric: 85%]

If it wouldn’t mess up the site that D3Analyst, D3Regional, and D3ASouthsNagging beautifully created, I would type this next section entirely in purple. This section of the Central Palooza Preview is dedicated to the NCAC specifically the Lords of Kenyon and their unwilling vassals: Denison, Depauw, and Oberlin. The NCAC preseason coaching poll released on Instagram, like all breaking news should, and the coaches have ordered this foursome – Kenyon, Denison, Oberlin, Depauw ~ Article Cutoff ~ Wooster, Wittenberg, OWU, Allegheny, and wAVZbash. So, in honor of those coaches I’ll proceed in ascending order towards Thielke’s Purple People Eaters.

Depauw was voted to get fourth in the NCAC preseason coach’s poll. They’re currently 0-3, but had a surprisingly close 1-8 loss to Kenyon this past weekend. Notably for Depauw, Thomas Partridge and Noah Roberts defeated Kenyon’s two doubles team of Lee and Platas. Partridge followed that win with an 8-10 in the third loss to Kenyon’s best first year. Depauw won or lost by a break in all three doubles matches, and if Depauw is to improve on their preseason rank it will be due to classically strong Depauw doubles. The Tigers are incredibly young – they start zero seniors. Depauw always plays Kenyon tighter than Oberlin or Denison, so I wouldn’t read too much into it if Kenyon blanks either of those two 9-0. I think that a great Depauw season would have them upset whomever they meet in the NCAC third-place match combined with victories over the multiple central teams ranked behind them. A good and much more likely season would see the Tigers take their lumps early due to their inexperience before they end the season playing great doubles in a tight loss in the third place NCAC match. Depauw is trending up with their first-year additions this season. I predict that Depauw will play Augustana and Oberlin close in Hilton Head, that they’ll give Denison more fits than they should at home, and they’ll win their first conference tournament match this year. But I think they’ll have to wait until 2021 to improve on 4^th place in the NCAC.

Oberlin was voted to get third in the NCAC preseason coach’s poll. Currently sitting at 1-2, this Oberlin team is their most TRN-talented team they’ve had this millennium. Surprisingly, Oberlin played CMU to a 2-7 loss – yes both teams were missing key starters but the result is still unexpected. Oberlin, unlike Depauw, will lean heavily on experience with a senior led lineup – 1. Gruppuso, 2. Vaughn, 3. Cohen. Oberlin’s schedule doesn’t afford them very much in the way of upward mobility with Denison, Rochester, and Hobart being their main opportunity matches (Spring Break schedule not up yet). Denison, as I’ll detail after this, is more vulnerable this year than any time during these Oberlin senior’s tenure. Due to Denison’s decline, Oberlin has a real shot at getting second in the conference but it’s up to them to see if they can seize the opportunity or collect another statement loss. Oberlin should be better than last year considering their additions (Billerbeck, Buckley) and I predict that they’ll have an exceptional Spring Break and go undefeated (unless Carleton is down there). The most important matches this season for Oberlin will be their Spring Break Depauw match and their senior day against Denison. These two are the most important because Oberlin has created a real path to getting away from Kenyon’s NCAC tournament half. If Oberlin defeats Depauw and loses to Denison, then they’ll likely be three (unless Depauw or Oberlin loses to someone else) and if they defeat both of them – they’ll be the second seed. Either way, Oberlin’s path to second-place in the NCAC requires defeating Depauw on Hilton Head Island OR a season finale upset of Denison. I predict that Oberlin will be the three seed after defeating Depauw on Spring Break and losing to Denison in the season finale, before coming back to upset Denison on their home courts the following weekend in the conference semis.

Denison was voted to be BIG SILVER by the NCAC preseason coach’s poll. Denison’s team might be the smallest nationally ranked squad in the country – just eight of them this season. No seniors and three first years, this team is going to rely on the singles prowess of Cianciola, Rotnov, and Thai to keep them in the national rankings, while praying for good health and a steep learning curve for Bulger. Denison’s first big winnable match will be against Kalamazoo towards the beginning of March – we should learn a lot about both teams and whether we’re going to elevate a team into the GAC tier or relegate them to the headliners of their own tier. Denison then travels west to California to play my favorite Spring Break schedule I’ve seen thus far – Babson, #22 Sewanee, #30 Southwestern, and #18 Redlands. Aside from Babson, Denison will have the opportunity to play hakuna matata tennis since they’ll be a slight or heavy underdog in the other four matches. April begins and so does the Big Red’s NCAC swing. April Fools Denison plays Kenyon in a preview of the chalk NCAC final – positive Denison news will have to be vetted extra hard considering the date and the quality we’re assuming Kenyon brings this season. As mentioned above, Denison has an opportunity to secure the NCAC 2 seed while ruining Oberlin’s senior day in the regular season finale. I think that this will finally be a close 5-4 regular season matchup that we’ve been waiting to see from these two team. I think that Denison will win this battle, but they’ll lose the war to the Yeomen in the conference tournament. Denison’s season has an ominously purple ceiling this year – couple that with Oberlin nipping at their heels and a small team that’s one injury away from imploding and we get a Denison team that has a lot more question marks than answers. I predict that this will be a down year for a Denison team that’s in dire need of a culture change (and a few more tennis playing bodys).

Kenyon was selected to repeat as the NCAC Champions. It’s hard to create reasonable scenarios where Kenyon does not secure the NCAC’s Pool A berth, so it makes more sense to evaluate Kenyon in regard to its place in the national hierarchy rather than the small pond it’s big-fishing in now. Kenyon’s first test (Kalamazoo, no disrespect, but you’re a quiz) will be in Minnesota with NATIONAL INDOORS! The Lords open with the Central’s top dog in U Chicago. Kenyon is 10-2 lifetime against U Chicago with their last meeting occurring in 2016 with Chicago winning 6-3 after a doubles sweep. After Indoors, which will get the longform preview that it deserves by D3ASouth, Kenyon heads to the USTA National Campus in Orlando to play five matches: Mary Washington, Carnegie Mellon, Wesleyan, Lee, and Johns Hopkins. Last season, Kenyon 3-3 over their Spring Break defeating Coe, Case, and Millsaps but falling to Amherst, Wesleyan, and Trinity TX. I think that this Kenyon team is streets ahead of last year’s team with the addition of Platas and another year of experience for Lee, Zalenski, Diehl, and Yoshino. Kenyon and CMU always play a 5-4 no matter the situation, so I’ll focus on the other four – Kenyon should handle UMW, Lee, and Hopkins, but Wesleyan is the crown jewel of this trip. If Kenyon were a Pool C slave this match would be even more important and essential to their postseason dreams but considering Kenyon’s Pool A privilege this match only carries season-ending weight for Wesleyan. Like Denison, Kenyon saves their NCAC slate for the end of the year, and they’ll play NCAC teams for the remainder of April going into the NCAC tournament. Kenyon, NCAC’s Pool A darling, will look to make some serious noise this post season. Zalenski and Diehl were one of the best 1-2 pairings in the country last season, and I think that the senior duo will end up doing some historic things to close their careers. I predict that Kenyon will win the NCAC, secure a 2 seed in some UAA team’s region and then fight tooth & nail for an Elite Eight berth. As much as I think this will be a down year for Denison, I think the opposite for Kenyon – this could be the best Kenyon team since 2012. (Slide in the DMs if you’re a Lord and think there’s a better Kenyon team than 2012.)

It’s time for the cream of the crop, the best conference in the country (yea I said it @D3NE!), the UAA to get their preview. Chicago, Case Western, and Wash U headline my region’s participation in the country’s best conference. The UAA is a conference that makes negative geographical sense but makes up for it in quality and conference tournament festivities. Last season two of my central UAA teams qualified for NCAAs: Chicago and Wash U. Chicago won the conference two years ago (I’d elaborate on the magnitude of this feat but that’s so last decade plus I’ve done that already) but due to a scalding Brandeis team found themselves in the third place match. Through no fault of their own, Chicago finds themselves behind Emory as UAA favorites in people’s eyes this season. Wash U made the postseason but at the expense of a Brandeis team that many, many people thought had rightfully earned the right to be in the postseason. Wash U is the Toyota Camry of the UAA: consistent, reliable, vanilla, and plain – expectations and dreams conflate here in St. Louis to the shape of an Elite Eight berth & exit. Including last season, Case has everything from ruining CMU’s season to slapping Amherst to wtf was that against Trinity TX to fueling the Brandeis fire to inventing Death Valley Sailing Stones in Cleveland to signing #TheGuy in James Hopper to doubling up at ITAs to a FIRST YEAR IN A FREAKING MAIN DRAW CHALLENGER EVENT! The UAA has storylines out the wazoo and it’ll be tough to even address all of them in an article that only has three conference members but here we go…

Wash U, the beneficiaries of tradition and a debatable anti-Brandeis sentiment made it to the Elite Eight last season for the umpteenth time in Coach Follmer’s career. THANKFULLY FOR US, WASH U, BRANDEIS, & THE PEOPLE Wash U and Brandeis will play each other in the first round of National Indoors. After Indoors, Wash U gives up on St Louis and heads to La Jolla and Honolulu for the first three weeks of March. Wash U’s only d3 match of note will be at CMS. I think that Wash U will find themselves overmatched on nearly every singles court, so a doubles sweep will be a necessity for a positive result. April is generally when nationally ranked teams chill out and dominate their conference little brothers, but not Wash U – not in this conference! Wash U hosts a quad with CMU, Chicago, and UWW in the middle of April before heading to Orlando for UAAs. Wash U could be as good as they were last season (Elite Eight), but I don’t think it’ll be enough. If Pool C remains the same, I predict that Wash U will miss out on the postseason with the emergence of Case Western who will squeeze them out of the UAA’s third NCAA berth. Wash U is always the least sexy pick – consistently doubted, constantly undervalued, and plain as vanilla. I’m going to put myself at risk to bet against the Bears again, but I think that they lack the firepower to break out of a crowded UAA, and an even more hectic Pool C.

Case Western, the Arbiters of “On It”, the Double Flip Kings, the rockstar Salesmen, the Spartans…are back and better than ever. Case were undeniably erratic last season with moments as high as their victory over Amherst to moments as low as their first round flame out at UAAs. In a word, 2018-2019 Case were mid. I don’t think that I’m alone in this feeling, but the 2020 Case team is dangerous. I won’t be so prisoned by the moment to elevate James Hopper to the best player in D3 right now, but he’s not far off… Similar to how Leo is an automatic two points for Carleton or how Krimbill was for Case, Hopper has asserted himself as an automatic two for the Spartans. A great one not only empowers the team in practice, but they make the lineup stronger just by playing 1 – with Hopper slotted in at the top spot, Chen gets to transform from a midtable 1 to one of the top 2s in the country, and so on and so forth with the rest of their lineup. One player can change a team, and I think that Case will find themselves back in the postseason as a team this year. While I tried to avoid too much talk of individuals, specifically individual nationals, I will say that Case’s first round with CMS is ripe with intrigue as Hopper will meet Parodi (though, maybe Jemison would be a better test :P) in a dual match. After Indoors, Case has a handful of really important Pool C and UAA seeding matches including: Wesleyan and CMU in Orlando and then Kenyon in the first Battle of Ohio of the decade. Kenyon and Case should be firing on all cylinders by then, and I for one couldn’t be more excited for two of my teams to play each other at the peak of their powers (at least peaks over the last 6 years). I’m all in on the Case Western bandwagon this year, the Chaitanya Aduru Limited if you will. I predict a Pool C berth leading into an Elite Eight reprisal for Todd and his Spartans.

Chicago is blessed with a wealth of talent and an interesting and tight schedule. Last year’s UAA Third Place, Chicago made it all the way to the Final Four again before falling to the eventual runner’s up in CMS. Chicago won Indoors last year to add another missing trophy from their trophy case – the only outstanding trophy left is the Natty. Chicago has all the talent and tools to win the national title every single year, and we, maybe unfairly, expect them to do so every season. This year is no different – the ceiling is the roof. After their Indoors defense, Chicago flies west to California for four storyline laden matchups with Caltech (Individuals Ramifications), Pomona-Pitzer (Pool C Ramifications), Redlands (Can’t lose this one or else their postseason might need a Pool A stamp), and CMS (Natty Implications). Following March, Chicago runs through the gauntlet of GAC, UWW, Wash U, and CMU before flying south for UAAs. How we feel about the Maroons come UAAs depends on who you are – on one hand, you could be enamored by form and believe this Chicago team is destined if they run through April undefeated (as I predict), on another hand you could believe that d3 tennis is similar to the NBA where all previous results fade away in the face of the postseason, or you could have no hands and believe that no matter how well Chicago does, you’ll always favor the Eagles in Florida. I predict that Chicago will secure one of the three UAA postseason berths by finishing second to Emory. I predict that a Wash U-less postseason benefits them geographically and grants them a simpler-than-most path to the Elite Eight. It’s early and teams always change during the season, but as they are now, I still view the Maroons a step behind CMS, Emory, and the NESCAC elite.

I wanted to fit in some individual player highlights in here, but this piece got a lot bigger than I anticipated. So, I’m going to highlight the twelve players I think have a legitimate shot of making NCAAs today: (in no particular order) Leo Vithoontien, James Hopper, Jake Zalenski, Austin Diehl, Ethan Hillis, Caio DeRezende, Erik Kerrigan, Matt Chen, Tim Cianciola, Jeremy Yuan, Bernardo Neves, and Yassine Derbani.

That is, it for me tonight – enjoy this extended preview and we’ll talk again soon for NATIONAL INDOORS!!

-newCentral