Welcome back to another episode of season previews. Today we’re taking a trip up I-95 to Maine and visiting with the Bowdoin Polar Bears. Bowdoin has been a consistent title contender during the past four years (The Urken-Jiang dynasty), finishing with a title, a runner up finish, a final four and a Quarterfinal finish. This year, Coach Conor Smith and the Polar Bears embark on life without two of the program’s best, and have now graduated 5 starters from that national championship team in the past two years. However, the youth is strong in Brunswick, and while this might be the least developed Bowdoin team we’ve seen in the last 1/2 decade, they also appear to be rebuilding pretty darn quickly. This is a big year not only for this team, but for the direction of the program in the post Tercek/Wolfe/Roddy/Urken/Jiang world. Can Bowdoin start building towards another title run? What color hair dye will multiple members of the team use this spring? Will Coach Smith smile on court in front of witnesses? We answer that and a whole lot more in this episode of SEA-SON-PREVIEWS!!!!!!!!
LOCATION: Brunswick, Maine
COACH: Conor Smith (10th season?! Good lord I feel old)
ASSISTANT COACH: None, but I would love it if Conor and Lamanna helped each other out at times.
TWITTER HANDLE: @PolarBearTennis
2019 ITA NATIONAL RANKING: 7th
2019 ITA REGIONAL RANKING: 4th
2019 BLOG POWER RANKING: 6th
2018-2019 FINISH: The Polar Bears beat Wesleyan and Williams but lost back-to-back tough 5-4 matches to Midd and Amherst in April last year, including Foulkes over Patel 7-6 in the 3rd and 5 3-setters against Midd, with the Panthers taking three including Farrell over Jiang 6-4 in the 3rd. Bowdoin beat Williams again in the NESCAC QFs, but then lost to Amherst by a not-so-close 5-2 score. That said the Polar Bears hosted a regional, cake walked to the Elite 8, where they then got swept in dubs by CMS, fought back winning at #3 & #6 singles, splitting at #2 & #5 singles, when Parodi closed out Urken 6(6) & 6(8).
KEY ADDITIONS: Tristan Bradley (4-star from Pennsylvania with UTR of 11.56), Jack Carroll (3-star from California with UTR of 10.17), Michael Vergara (4-star from California with UTR of 10.50)
KEY DEPARTURES: Grant Urken (#1 doubles/#1 singles/one of the best players in the country), Jerry Jiang (#1 doubles/#2 singles/one of the best players in the country), Luke Carstens (#7 singles), Aiden McGrory (I’m not gonna leave off the only other senior…), Luis Cuervo (though he is still listed on the roster).
TWEET LENGTH REVIEW OF THE FALL: Under the radar, this young Bowdoin team actually had a nice fall and showed some real hope for 2020 and beyond. That said, it won’t be easy…in this conference it never is.
STOCK WATCH: Sell if you need cash quick, but I’m in it for the longer term and will be buying your shorted stock. I’ll hit on this below, but losing Urken and Jiang won’t be easy, especially after losing a big class the year before. This year is very likely to be the toughest for Bowdoin in the past 5, but I have very little doubt that they will embrace that and come back just as strong next year if not overachieve this year.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: The freshmen impress, at least two of Yang/Fortier/Wang make a jump, Bowdoin is as formidable in the middle of their singles lineup as ever and they compete with each and every team in the conference this year. Bowdoin pulls out a top-4 seed, wins the first round at NESCACs (which hasn’t gotten any easier for the #3-4 teams), earns a Pool-C bid, rides their high ranking to hosting another NCAA Regional, and gets back to the NCAA Quarterfinals where anything can happen (assuming they aren’t playing CMS).
WORST CASE SCENARIO: The younger players struggle and the leadership wanes without the on-court talent of Urken/Jiang. Bowdoin is not competitive with the top of the conference, instead playing tighter with Tufts/Bates/Colby, and they actually lose to Tufts in a heartbreaker. Bowdoin goes into NESCACs as the #6 seed where they get beaten by a top-3 conference foe and spend May in their rooms without any NCAAs for supper.
BOLD PREDICTION: Tristan Bradley becomes a force in the middle of the lineup, winning more singles matches than any other Polar Bear. What can I say, I like this kid’s game! I will like this prediction a lot more if he starts the year behind guys like Fortier or Wang to ease his competition a touch, but I’m guessing that at least one of the Polar Bear young guys will impress this year. Even money between Fortier and Bradley at this point, and you could make a pretty good argument for both players, but give me the guy who will most likely be playing behind the other.
NOT-SO-BOLD PREDICTION: Oscar Yang will make NCAAs this year. Sure, Bowdoin’s projected #1 player is usually in a good spot, but this is a slightly bolder “not-so-bold” prediction than usual given the depth of talent in the region. Yes, Yang was the #8 seed at the ITA, but he didn’t hold his seed and lost to Gorelik (Tufts projected #2) in the 3rd round. We know he has the firepower, AND while Wang/Fortier were Bowdoin’s top doubles team this fall, Yang/Bradley actually had better doubles results so there’s an outside chance he could end up apart of the top squad there too, thus increasing his shot at NCAAs.
3 RANDOM QUESTIONS:
- How do you move on from Urken/Jiang? Bowdoin has been absolutely smacked by graduation over the past few years, which is what happens when you have program defining classes move through college. Tercek/Wolfe/Roddy learned from Trinka/Savage and helped take a perennial second tier team to contend for a title and win it all. Grant and Jerry continued the tradition of hard work after all other ties to the title had vanished, and it kept Bowdoin as a true contender all through last season. What happens when a team loses its top 5 players and 5 of its 6 doubles starters in a two year span? We’re about to find out. I have no doubt that the culture remains the same in Brunswick, but there needs to be a mix of culture and talent to compete for a title, one will only take you so far.
- Who steps up this year? Who has made the leap? Given the heavy losses I just mentioned, if Bowdoin is to compete to stay in the top-10 (let alone remain a title contender) some of the younger guys are going to have to step up. I’ll talk more about this in my lineup prediction below, but among Yang, Fortier and Wang, somebody is going to have to make the leap this year. It could be a small leap for multiple guys, it could mean Yang becomes what we know he has the potential to be, a bonafide #1, it could mean that either Fortier or Wang holds down the #2 spot with decent success, it could mean whichever guy plays #3 becomes close to automatic. Whichever way it happens, it has to happen for these Polar Bears to maintain what has become the status quo.
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Coach Smith after winning the big match What should be considered a success in 2020? As I said, Bowdoin has been a title contender since their underdog title run in 2016. But this year, they face a steeper climb than they’ve made since they hoisted the trophy. I have no doubt that the goals in Brunswick remain the same as they have, but those of us slightly more removed have to take a broader perspective. If Bowdoin finishes 4th in the conference and holds a top 7 or 8 ranking in the country, would that be considered a successful year? As of this moment I’m leaning towards yes, because they will only graduate Patel this year, and while that will be a loss they should come back stronger next year. If Bowdoin can weather the storm, it will be a testament to both the program’s culture, and Conor Smith (yes, I know those two go hand in hand, but both would deserve recognition).
1) Oscar Yang, sophomore, UTR=11.67, Range: #1-1: I may be a little too confident in my range here, but I would be very surprised if Oscar doesn’t end up the #1 for the Polar Bears this spring. He played ahead of all these guys last year, and was a very good #3 as a freshman going 15-7 with wins over top-10 teams like CMS, Midd, Wesleyan and Brandeis. Also he apparently watched all of the Office in just 10 days…so there’s that. This fall, he sleptwalked to the A-Flight semis at Bates before getting smoked by Altmeyer (projected Colby #1), then he took out the seeded Aidan Harris (projected Midd who the hell knows) at Wes before losing to Sharda (projected Tufts #3) in the 2nd round. At the ITA, he had a VERY tough draw but he got past Princeton Carter (projected Wesleyan #4-6) and Calvin Chung (projected Williams #3-6) the first day, and then fell to Gorelik (projected Tufts #2) in 3 sets in the round of 16. Right off the bat we have a make or break spot for Bowdoin this year. If Yang can compete against the likes of Morris, Wei, Fink, Kam/Barr, Sorkin, etc., Bowdoin will have a really good shot to hold their top-10 ranking and make NCAAs. If not, it becomes that much tougher for an inexperienced lineup to consistently get enough wins to keep the Polar Bears alive. However, the same could be said for the #2 singles spot…
2) Evan Fortier, sophomore, UTR=11.58, Range: #2-4: And just like that, the guess work begins. Fortier, Wang and Bradley are all very much in the mix for this #2 spot. Fortier and Wang have BIG games, and possess the ability to beat anybody if they are playing well that day. For Evan, it’s usually about his forehand, which when on is one of the bigger weapons out there. He won an easy 1st round at the ITA, and then pushed Stanley Morris (eventual runner up and projected Midd #1) to 3-sets in the 2nd round. At Bates, Fortier played in the A-Flight ahead of Wang and Bradley, and beat Wenger (projected Colby #2-3), and Chen (projected Deis #4) before losing to Gorelik (projected Tufts #2) 10-7 in a superbreaker. Evan held his position and played A-Flight again at Wes, but he lost in the first round to Vanezis (Midd projected who the hell knows), I believe tightening the gap between him and two guys below him in the lineup. Whomever plays #2 for Bowdoin this year will likely have some struggles, but if Evan (or either of the next two guys) can get some wins at this spot, it makes Bowdoin a lot tougher as they will likely be able to compete at most other spots.
3) Justin Wang, junior, UTR=11.71, Range: #2-5: Wang is one of the bigger enigmas in DIII. He certainly has the talent to beat anybody, but he had a really rough go of his freshman year, going 6-9 in spring dual matches and a rough 1-8 against ranked teams. That said, he also beat Sean Wei (projected Amherst #1) and Noah Williamson (projected Skid #2) during his freshman fall, and then this fall beat Scotty Altmeyer (projected Colby #1) at the ITA, beat projected starters from Tufts (Moldy), Wes (Lieb) and Midd (Xiao) en route to a finals appearance at Wes, and won the entire B-Flight at Bates. Let’s hope that JW has found something in his game we always knew was there, and not that he turns into just another shooting fall star.
4) Tristan Bradley, freshman, UTR=11.56, Range: #2-4: I initially had Tristan up at #3 and Wang down at #4, but I think this is the lineup composition that would yield the most wins for the Polar Bears. We’ve seen that Wang is capable of beating anybody, and you always want that person higher in your lineup so that if they lose it doesn’t hurt as much, AND obviously allows your other guys at least a slightly better matchup. Bradley beat Wang in the B-Flight finals at Wes, after knocking off Guo (projected Midd who the hell knows), Pentousis (projected Tufts #4-5) and Tzeng (projected Brandeis #3) to get to the finals. That final almost seems like a made up score as the freshman beat Wang 17-15 in the superbreaker. However, earlier in the month, Wang got the better of Bradley when he won the B-Flight at Bates, beating Yohannes (RPI) in the finals, who had beaten Bradley earlier that day. Tristan also had a great win at ITAs, beating Lil’ Raghavan (projected Williams #2-4) in three sets in the first round. Overall, TB had a very encouraging fall and is a big part of the reason why I believe this Bowdoin team will be back as a title contender by the end of next year.
5) Justin Patel, senior, UTR=10.97, Range: #4-6: JP is the anchor of this team, and he will be counted upon to win a lot of matches at this spot. There is a chance that he ends up playing 6 behind somebody like Vergara, as that probably gives Bowdoin a better chance to split these two spots against top NESCAC competition, but Patel has proven he can both hang with and beat the big boys right here. That said, my guy did not have a very good fall, losing in the 1st round of the C-Flights at both Bates and Wes to Tufts guys who very possibly might not start for the Bos. Patel did win one match this fall, his 1st rounder at ITAs, and then ran into Sorkin in the 2nd round. I’m not too worried about the fall results here and think the lone Bowdoin senior will be just fine come springtime.
6) Michael Vergara, freshman, UTR=10.50, Range: #5-7: This is the toughest overall spot to predict, since both Vergara and Delman had a shot to run away with it this fall and failed. That said, the freshman was the better of the two options, so I’m going with him over both juniors. He won a round in the C-Flight at Bates, won a round in the C-Flight at Wes, and probably more importantly played ahead of Delman both times. He did lose in straight sets to Michulka (projected Amherst #5-7), but it wasn’t like he got blown out (3&4). Don’t have too much to draw from given Bowdoin’s somewhat light fall schedule, but for now let’s go against my general rule and take a freshman in the #6 spot.
In the hunt: Larry Zhao (junior, UTR=10.45, Range: #6-7/doubles), Alan Delman (junior, UTR=10.69, Range: #6-7). Let me tell you, I pride myself on usually having a pretty good idea on who will be starting and who wont be in these season previews, but this is rare case where I have no idea, and it really could be any of three guys. I’m giving Vergara a 40% chance, Zhao at 35% and Delman at 25%. Zhao was abroad this fall which both helps and hurts his case. Usually it would only hurt, but if the time away did Larry some good and he comes back focused and motivated, it could help seeing as neither Vergara or Delman ran away with the starting spot. LZ also had wins last year against Ruparel (projected Amherst #5-7) and Chung (projected Williams #3-6) so we know he can play. That said, going abroad rarely helps your tennis game, so Delman is still in the mix even after a particularly rough fall where he lost twice in the first round in D-Flights at Bates and Wes. As two of the three upperclassmen on this team, both guys will have the chance to be big character players for the team, regardless of whether or not they start.
Bowdoin has pretty much its usual spring schedule to look forward to in the coming months, with one notable exception, the Polar Bears will not be playing the Stag Hen in 2020. I like this choice from Coach Smith as his team is young and the only thing you get out of Stag Hen that you wouldn’t get by playing PP & CMS on your spring break trip is either a crucially important NESCAC match and/or a grind of a 36 hours, neither of which is what I would want for a young team still trying to get its footing. Bowdoin does go to Cali like usual, starting with a warm up match in Chapman, and then is at Caltech, at CMS, at PP, and vs Trinity (Ct). Caltech didn’t have a great Hawaii trip, but you know Coach Cohen will be foaming at the mouth for a chance to take on a vulnerable version of one of his old in-state rivals. Realistically, Bowdoin should go 4-1 on this trip, and they should be happy to do so, but the matches against Caltech and PP on their home courts are not gimmes by any stretch of the imagination.
After returning back to the frozen tundra, Bowdoin has a BIG weekend at the end of March going to MIT and hosting Wesleyan. If the matches were swapped, I’d say it would likely be an easy 1-1 weekend, but going to MIT is never easy, and getting to play Wes on their home courts (or maybe Maine Pines given it will still be March in Maine), is an advantage. I’m circling that match as I think it’s the first really big conference match of the season for any top NESCAC team, though Wes will have played a series of massive matches on spring break.
April brings the usual gauntlet of conference matches. Hamilton and Amherst to start, both at home, then a relatively easy weekend with Bates and Colby also taking the quick trip down to Brunswick. Then Bowdoin plays 4 HUGE matches in the span of 8 days going to Midd, Brandeis, Tufts and finally hosting Williams to cap the regular season. 2-2 in those matches will probably be enough to keep Bowdoin firmly in the NCAA conversation. NESCACs the following week will likely have the final say in whether or not Bowdoin’s season continues or ends at Amherst in the conference playoffs. While March will be big for the Polar Bears, how they end their April should have far influence on their season, with each match being crucially important to their postseason hopes.
Wow. Lots of stuff here. Certainly a deep dive. Thanks.