2020 season preview; Liberty League

So the shift key on my computer only works about a third of the time right now. I’m 100% NOT going to use the caps lock to make sure everything is capitalized as it should be, so just bear with me through this article. 

Alright, it’s been a few weeks and there’s currently a Top 15 D3 match going on right now, so that means it’s definitely time to grind through another season preview. I’m hitting three teams today, mainly because they are all very much intertwined. Skidmore, rpi, and Hobart will once again make up the top 3 teams in the liberty league this year, and as usual, the biggest storyline is simple: who comes out on top and makes NCAAs? Whoever it is should have an excellent chance to make the Sweet 16 before going out to a NESCAC team (or Brandeis!), but we’ll save the NCAA talk for down the road.

Before I talk about each team individually, let me just say that it would be futile of me to even try to predict how things are going to shake out between these teams. All three teams have things that are exciting and bode well for them, but also have some concerns. I’ll break all that down and also offer a quick schedule analysis.

Skidmore Thoroughbreds
What’s to love: let’s just get this out of the way: I’m picking Skidmore to win the liberty league based almost solely on my usual criteria—never pick against the usual winner unless proven otherwise. In 2018, I was proven otherwise by RPI, but rpi took a step back last year, and Hobart is still very unproven, so I’m very comfortable in picking Skidmore to emerge as conference champs again in 2020. Skidmore brought in a solid recruiting class, with Alper Kulturel having making the most noise in the fall with a run to the ITA semis, beating teammate JT Wynne on the way there. David Cohen had a very quiet fall, but the four star could be a very tough out in the 3-6 range in the lineup. Wynne and Noah Williamson won the ITA regional in their second year together after making ncAAs last spring, and they should likely be a very good #1 team all spring. Skidmore also only lost one player to graduation last spring in Travis leaf, who was a nice mid lineup guy, but not someone who is irreplaceable (newsflash: no one is).

What’s not to love: I didn’t get a great vibe when Wynne/Williamson didn’t play the ITA Cup, as that was pretty out of character for Skidmore who has sent guys to that tournament basically every year since forever. JT Wynne will be the de facto leader of this team, and while he came onto the scene as a fiery freshman and sophomore, it remains to be seen how well the troops rally behind him. It’s maybe a little harsh to put this in my “what’s not to love” section, but i think there’s still a lot that is unproven about the identity of this team, and how they come together (or don’t) could have a huge impact on how they perform on court.

Schedule analysis: lots of good non conference matches for Skidmore, a team that always puts together a very strong schedule. They’ll take on Bowdoin in California, which is a little intriguing given that Bowdoin will only be a couple weeks into their season whereas Skidmore will have many matches under their belt already. Also in CA is stag hen and an opening round match against Pomona pitzer, which is not an insurmountable task, though I honestly don’t know anything at all about PP. They’ve also got Amherst, Stevens, Midd, MIT, and Tufts. They should beat stevens pretty comfortably, and then after that it’ll be much tougher. MIT is quite winnable, Tufts is tough on paper but unpredictable in reality, though I favor the jumbos, and then I’m sticking with Midd and Amherst, unless we have some more high profile players quitting, which is never out of the question. Anyway, Skidmore actually has a schedule that’s strong enough that in theory, they could get some big wins, get upset in the conference tournament, and then sneak in Pool C. Not saying that is at all likely, but I will say that their schedule isn’t just a case of “nothing matters until the conference tournament.”

RPI Engineers
What’s to love: Sebastian Castillo Sanchez winning the ITA was a fall highlight, and his performance there and at the ITA Cup suggests that he’s ready to finally establish himself as one of the best players in the country and qualify for NCAAs in singles. He’ll also keep RPI in lots of matches, as he can win at 1 singles and doubles (with andrew imrie) against just about anyone in the country. My gut feeling is that rpI is going to be the SCS show this year. Abraham Yohannes also had a nice freshman fall, and could be a very solid 4-6 this spring. Unfortunately, I could see him playing 2 or 3 and being a bit overmatched. 

What’s not to love: Not sure SCS is going to have the depth behind him to compete with teams ranked above him. There are no obvious candidates to play a solid 2 or 3, and while there are several guys (Imrie, Yohannes, Dylan Payne, Yudai Teruyama) that have the potential to win low in the lineup, I think mid lineup singles is a huge liability. There are also large question marks at 2 and 3 doubles, but that’s true for pretty much every team I guess. When I compare this team to Skidmore, I give RpI the edge at 1 singles (though not by a ton), but after that, I don’t see any other spot where Skidmore isn’t better.

Schedule analysis: Rochester on 2/16 will be a good litmus test for RPI, as they look to avenge a tough loss against the Yellowjackets from last spring. In California, rpi faces Haverford, Christopher newport, Redlands, and Caltech, where I think they come back 2-2. Other notable non conference matches are against MIT and Brandeis—and I don’t think they have much of a shot in either. RPI is basically little brother to MIT in many ways, and Brandeis should be historically good is actually the best team the Engineers will face. Unlike Skidmore, the story of RPI’s schedule is basically “it’s all about the conference tournament.” If the schedule battle tests them and has them ready to peak in early May, that’s really the main thing that matters. Obviously, their regular season matches with hobart and skidmore will be significant for a few reasons, including for the seeding implications as well.

Hobart Statesmen
What’s to love; first of all, shoutout to Hobart for having updated stats on their website. Alan dubrovsky, who is the Hobart goaT (at least in recent times0, enters his senior year and has only gotten better every year—though he’ll face tough competition at #1, he gives Hobart a good shot in every match. As i alluded to in the fall, it will also be fun to see if he can make a push for NCAAs. A 11-9 supertiebreak loss to sean wei in the fall was a tough start to the bid (especially given Wei’s subpar fall), but Dubrosky will have his chance to make a case in the spring. Other things to love for Hobart include freshman Kaan Ayman, a freshman from Turkey by way of weil academy in California, who only lost to Dubrovsky and SCS this spring, grabbing wins over Kevin Ma (Amherst) and Noah Williamson (Skid). Another freshman, Harry Lyu, comes in with some decent junior success and though he lost both, tight three setters with Foulkes (amherst) and McClaren (skidmore) are not bad results. Like most teams, the depth is relatively unproven, but there’s a decent mix of new guys (Lyu, Jeremy Atwater, a transfer from Colby and brother of Jonathan, who graduated last year from Hobart, and Jett Wright) as well as returners like Walker Anderson, Joe Mallon, Jack Ledford, and Thomas Shung to make me think there are, at the very least, the pieces in place for hobart to put together a strong top six. 

What’s not to love: The biggest thing about hobart that gives me pause is that they are completely unproven and really don’t have any big wins that I can think of. I don’t think they’ve ever beaten skidmore (at least not in the Blog era) and the fact of the matter is that they’ve never even been close to winning the conference. It’s a big jump to go from that and just flat out win the whole thing one year. Unfortunately, now’s the time to do just that, as once Dubrovsky graduates it’s going to be very tough for Hobart to find another guy that can compete at #1 that well. I think tha the best case scenario is that Dubrovsky continues to be a gamer and win big matches, Anderson translates some of his doubles success into a lot of lower lineup singles wins, and the freshman swing freely and bring an “I don’t care about history” attitude into every match to tranform hobart into not just a talented and improving team, but a talented and improving team with some SWAGGER. (I even used Caps Lock for that1)

Schedule Analysis: Hobart already played amherst this fall, which was a great match to get on the schedule. Any time you can play a top team, you gotta make it happen, whether it’s in the fall, on spring break, on the moon, whatever. Despite the 8-1 loss, that’s a valuable experience. Hobart starts the spring with a tough weekend in Ohio, starting with Oberlin and then Case. I would think Hobart is a slight favorite over Oberlin, but that’s a tight match and one that hobart really needs to set the tone. Case is looking good by all indications, and while i wouldn’t say that Hobart is in that category of “not even good enough to shine their shoes,” i would expect Case to more or less rock the Statesmen, despite what they may be expecting. Dubrovsky vs Hopper or Chen will also be a key match for NCAAs. Hobart takes on Hamilton early in the season, and that’s match that they could potentially roll through and win 9-0, or it could go 5-4 either way. Again, it’ll be important to get through that one to set the tone for the rest of the season. On spring break, and interesting match awaits against Hopkins. JHU is likely too talented, but this is a great test for Hobart against a team that is better than them, but not so much better that it’s going to be one-way traffic. Besides conference play, they’ve also got both NYU and Rochester later on in the season. I don’t think either of those teams is that strong right now, but both are also usually decent enough to put up a fight, so again, it will be important for Hobart to take care of business there. Interestingly, Hobart faces RPI in their regular season match on 4/26, and they could quite possibly play again less than a week later in the conference semis on 5/2. Fun!

Everyone else: The other teams in the conference are Ithaca, Vassar, st Lawrence, union, RIT, bard. I don’t have much to say about them this year. Hopefully they’ll give me something to write (or at least Tweet) about this spring.

Closing Thoughts: On paper, I think the order of finish should be Skidmore, hobart, and rpi. But these teams are close enough in talent and there are still enough question marks (at least for someone as unplugged in as me) to believe it will be a fun spring to follow the liberty league. I’ve made no secret that i like rooting for hobart as they are relatively new on the scene, but truth be told I find the liberty league a fun conference to follow with no shortage of storylines, and hopefully 2020 is more of the same. 

Thanks for bearing with me through my lack of a consistent shift key! Also, unrelated, but i’ve been listening to sam cooke on Spotify as I write this article—the guy is one of the best to ever do it! Check him out if you haven’t before!