NE: Happy semifinal day, boys and girls! Sadly, only one of my NE teams survived Quarterfianl Monday, so now all my eggs are in the Middlebury basket. Luckily, it’s a pretty good basket to be in as the Panthers are the defending champs and are in their sixth consecutive Final Four! After overcoming a lackluster start in doubles, Midd looked pretty damn close to dominant in their singles performance today. This is an entirely different Panther team than we saw when these two teams last faced off in early April, but it’s important to bring up Emory’s 6-3 win just the same. The Eagles rode a doubles sweep to a quick win, BUT none of the doubles matches will be the same this time around, and #4-6 singles will be new matchups as well. Coincidentally, the only three rematches we get will be the top three singles spots, each of which Midd won VERY easily. This match should be full of talent, and extremely noisy and both teams have a strong contingent of vocal fans, namely their bench mob. In addition, both teams have players who like getting into it, and while Emory’s mantra is FIGHT, I think Midd would undoubtedly be the NE version of that same philosophy. We had a lack of barnburning Quarterfinals on Monday, but this semifinal features the previous two DIII champs and could be an instant classic, so here’s hoping we get all of the drama.
AS: As it always seems to happen at this time of the year, I am left with the Emory Eagles as my final team left in the draw. Emory took a doubles sweep today to their fierce rival Wash U (as I predicted, just saying), and they look to continue that trend against Middlebury today. They should be encouraged that Middlebury was down doubles to Wesleyan. Doubles has been the rock of Emory’s success this year, as they have introduced a new formula for winning in Atlanta in 2019. For some reason I don’t have much bluster for your intro today – maybe that’s because it’s time to get down to business and figure out who’s going to win this damn tournament. Let’s get to it.
When: Tuesday at 4:30 p.m.
Where: Stowe Stadium
Weather: Mid-50’s and cloudy. A touch warmer than Monday due to less wind, but also a slight chance of afternoon showers.
Emory
Power 6: 71.49
NCAA experience: Final Four in 2016, NATIONAL CHAMPIONS IN 2017, Final Four in 2018
Strengths: Top of singles lineup, middle of singles lineup, NCAA experience, knowing how to win
Weaknesses: Doubles/Singles depth?
Starting seniors: Jonathan Jemison (#1 singles/#1 doubles), Adrien Bouchet (#3 singles/#1 doubles), James Spaulding (#6 singles/#2 doubles)
Starting freshmen: Antonio Mora (#4 singles/#3 doubles), Andrew Esses (#5 singles)
Middlebury
Power 6: 70.63
NCAA experience: Finalists in 2016, Final Four in 2017, NATIONAL CHAMPS IN 2018
Strengths: Singles in general but especially top of the lineup, NCAA experience, bench mob
Weakness: Middling doubles?
Starting seniors: Lubo Cuba (#1 singles/#1 doubles), Noah Farrell (#2 singles/#2 doubles), Peter Martin (#1 doubles)
Starting freshmen: Stanley Morris (#6 singles)
MATCH BY MATCH PREVIEW
#1 doubles: Jemison/Bouchet vs Cuba/Martin
NE: Cuba and Martin actually looked good today, albeit in a loss, but not as good as Jemison/Bouchet. I LOVE that all four players on the court are seniors and I expect this one to stay close all the way through. Midd 8-7.
AS: This is going to be a close match, as NE predicted above. It features four seniors, which means this is going to be a barn burner, hopefully. Jemison/Bouchet have been lights out this year. I really have no choice but to go with JJ and Bouchet in this one – they have played together all year, they are the undisputed leaders of the Emory squad, and they simply win. Emory 8-6
#2 doubles: Spaulding/Wanner vs Farrell/Vanezis (Samets?)
NE: This was the weakest spot I saw from Midd throughout their entire match. Too many mistakes and a lot of groundstrokes through the middle that allowed Wes to knock some volleys off at clutch moments. Each of these pairings has a senior, but my focus is actually on the younger partner. The Midd duo has switched a few times, hence the parenthesis, and I’m betting on the chemistry of the Eagle duo. EU 8-5.
AS: Emory follows up their strong #1 team with two All-American doubles players at #2 doubles. This is one of the only times you’ll see Emory’s #2 team be one of their strongest one (heh) and it shows. Spaulding, a senior, takes a lot of pride in his doubles play, and I expect the Eagles to come out firing in this one. I’m seeing an Emory win to the tune of an early break and key holds throughout. Emory, 8-4.
#3 doubles: Cassone/Mora vs Xiao/Eazor
NE: Big match here. Eazor and Xiao were extremely solid today and their doubles win spurred each guy on to massive singles wins against the heart and soul of Wes’ team in Carter and Lilienthal. Both teams have won a lot recently, but there’s something about the pairing of Cassone and Mora that draws me to pick them every time. If they can get up early, I think that will be all she wrote, but the longer this one goes the better the Panthers’ chances will be. Midd 8-7.
AS: This match could be the deciding match to see if Middlebury can pull the upset or face the same fate as their matchup in the fall. While I think the Emory doubles is extremely strong, doubles is a fickle beast (as I keep saying!) and Cassone/Mora had a bit of a roller coaster ride yesterday. Xiao/Eazor take this one to keep Middlebury in it. Middlebury 8-4
#1 singles: Jonathan Jemison vs Lubomir Cuba
NE: A big time senior battle to start of the singles section of this preview, Cuba smoked JJ when they played in Vermont six weeks ago. But Jemison looked very good today, taking the first set from Ethan Hillis. Even so, I can’t pick against Cuba. He was clutch when it mattered most, breaking late to take the 1st set, and then withstanding mini charge after mini charge from Fink in the 2nd. Not only that, but I saw Cuba grinning, trash talking, and fully engaged/enjoying his match. If you get that Cuba the rest of the week, the rest of the DIII world better take notice. Midd 3-6, 6-2, 6-3.
AS: I’d be surprised if Jemison is going to lay down like he did in Vermont about a month ago. This is a different atmosphere, the stakes are higher, and that’s when Jemison normally steps up. He will throw his biggest haymaker at Cuba, who will have to be prepared to beat it. Cuba’s game lines up pretty well with Jemison’s, and expect some long rallies that will feature the best tennis that DIII has to offer. Unfortunately, as my coach always used to tell me, “you only have to be one shot better than your opponent every point.” And Cuba is just one shot better. Middlebury 6-3, 6-4
#2 singles: Hayden Cassone vs Noah Farrell
NE: Like Cuba, Farrell rolled to an easy win when these two teams played last time, routining Cassone 1&1. There was some talk after that match about Cassone not being 100%, but we havne’t seen him miss much time this year so even if it’s true it doesn’t change much for this matchup. Farrell dispatched Anker with ease today, exacting revenge from NESCACs, and should be a tough matchup for Cassone if he’s not playing his best. Remember that when Hayden is at his best, he’s the best #2 (and maybe player) in the country, but I’m going with the senior. Midd 6-4, 6-3.
AS: Like I mentioned in the Emory/Wash U preview, Hayden Cassone has been somewhat injured all year, per reports. Could this impact the way this match goes? Absolutely. Both these players have had their struggles this year. It almost seems as if you don’t know what you’re going to get with Noah Farrell. It’s anybody’s guess who’s going to win this one, but I will go with history repeating itself. Middlebury 7-5, 6-2
#3 singles: Adrien Bouchet vs Andre Xiao
NE: This was probably the most shocking result from the last match, with Xiao beating Bouchet 3&2. Xiao also looked really good today, beating Noah Lilienthal in straight sets and earning the clinch for the Panthers. Before today I would have taken Bouchet again without much thought, but given just how solid Xiao looked I’m going to leave this one unfinished. Emory leads: 7-6, 4-6, 1-0.
AS: Nah. Adrien Bouchet is not going to be taken out that easily twice in a row. Andre Xiao put on a nice performance yesterday, taking out Lilienthal with ease. Bouchet, the senior, will be a much tougher challenge. He’s simply been here before. Expect Adrien to come out with some huge shots from the baseline. Remember, this is a guy that has clinched a national championship for his team before. Don’t go against experience, and experience lies with Emory. Emory 7-6 (4) 6-4
#4 singles: Antonio Mora vs Adam Guo
NE: Guo battled back nicely against a tough opponent in Roji today, leveling the match and forcing a 3rd set before his teammates clinched. His reward? Possibly the best #4 in the country in Mora. Antonio beat van der Sman today and is 14-1 this spring. Not only that, but he played in four matches that didn’t finish, and in each one he was within either one game or two of the clinch. Guo can win this match, and it would provide a HUGE boost if he can, but the odds favor the Eagle. Emory 6-3, 6-4.
AS: Take it to the well. This is Emory’s go to spot for a win. Why would we change this formula? Antonio Mora has been the truth this year. Adam Guo has been solid, but remember, Mora is 14-1 this Spring as NE just said. Antonio Mora is the best #4 in the country. He proves that today. Emory 6-2, 6-4.
#5 singles: Andrew Esses vs Nate Eazor
NE: Both of these guys came up HUGE for their squads today. Esses took down a senior in Kozlowski whom had been a tough opponent for him earlier this year, and Eazor just broke the spirit of Princeton Carter and cruised to a far-too-easy straight set win. We’ve seen Eazor play his best tennis at NCAAs before, and if I’m an Emory fan I’m worried that might be what’s happening again. Luckily, for tomorrow, I’m not. Midd 6-4, 6-4.
AS: Gotta love a powerhouse matchup down at the bottom. This is not the same matchup as a month and a half ago, so this will be a totally new experience for everyone watching. We shall see how Esses handles the pressure of the Final Four against a player who’s been here before. It’s going to be a tough one and this may not finish. Expect things to go back and forth in one of those matches you keep refreshing the live stats for. Midd leads, 7-5, 2-6, 4-3.
#6 singles: James Spaulding vs Stanley Morris
NE: Senior vs freshman at the bottom of the lineup in an NCAA match, give me a break. Morris was impressive against Lieb today, as his offensive style could have had trouble with Lieb’s grinding approach, and Spaulding’s singles result was less than impressive against Vishnubholta, but not enough to sway my pick. Gimme a Spaulding bounce back match. Emory 6-3, 6-2.
AS: Which Stanley Morris will show up for Middlebury today? If it’s the good one, he potentially can beat Spaulding in what should be a huge match down at the bottom of the lineup. But once again, and you’ll hear this from me over and over, this is a senior vs. a freshman matchup, where the two are mostly evenly matched. That gives me strength to pick the senior, Spaulding, in what will be the clincher. 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 (CLINCH)
Match Predictions
NE: Midd 5-3
AS: Emory 5-3
newCentral: Emory 5-3
DIIIWest: Emory 5-2