Hey y’all! NEW here along with my trusty sidekick, Analyst, to preview the second all-NE quarter final of this year’s tournament! Check out our first preview on the Midd/Amherst match and ASW and WestW’s trademark expertise in the CMS/CMU preview, too!! Well, after a thrilling regional, we have a *surprise* quarterfinalist team in MIT, and shoutout to this team for absolutely crushing expectations and claiming a storming defeat of Bowdoin to snag a spot in the Elite 8 for a second year in a row. However, the road does not get any easier for the Engineers, as they’ll face off of the on-fire Cards of Wesleyan. Wes just came off of a huge win over Midd to take the NESCAC title home and marched right through their regional to set up a showdown with MIT. Now, many probably expect this match to be pretty one-sided, and we may or may not agree (read on to really find out), but this one was fun for us to predict / preview because the two have not played this year! This doesn’t happen a lot with teams from the same region, but honestly makes it more exciting for us to look at with fresh eyes! I think I’m starting to ramble, so let’s get to the preview!
#4 WESLEYAN
Best wins: CMU, (6-3), Amherst (6-3), Midd (5-2), Brandeis (5-1)
Worst losses: Emory (7-2), Midd (5-4)
Seniors: Victoria Yu
Starting freshman: Venia Yeung, Kristina Yu, Alexis Almy
Where they are strongest: Depth. There are very few teams that are as strong as Wes in every single position from top to bottom. On any given day, the Cards can rely on every single player to win against any and all opponents, and that strength and reliability is huge.
Where they are vulnerable: It’s hard to even identify a weak spot for the Cards this year, but if I absolutely had to choose one, I’d have to say doubles. As I mentioned above, their singles lineup is so deep and so strong from #1 to #6, and while they’ve had good success in doubles this season, it hasn’t been dominant and as solid as their singles play, which seems to lift them over the edge every single match.
How they got here: With a pretty routine stroll through their regional, but not before dropping one match to Brandeis in their regional final!
What would be considered a success: I think Wes has their eyes on a natty ship this year, sooooo obviously that would be a success
Three words to describe this team: Solid, solid, and solid
Don’t forget: They just won NESCACs!! They’re clearly playing great tennis right now.
#19 MIT
Best wins: Sewanee (5-4), Brandeis (5-4), Tufts (5-4), Bowdoin (5-3)
Worst losses: Chicago (8-1), Wash U (5-4), Bowdoin (8-1)
Seniors: None!
Starting freshman: Viktoriya Tabunshchyk, Ashley Teng
Where they are strongest: I think depth in singles is an strength for MIT. MIT has shown that they are deeper than almost all of the teams they have played this spring, and had a number of performances in which they’ve gone down in doubles and saved themselves with fighting in singles. However, I think depth is also Wesleyan’s biggest strength, and I think Wesleyan has the edge in terms of the extent to which depth is a strength.
Where they are vulnerable: I have no idea how to answer this. Prior to regionals, I would definitely would’ve said that MIT’s doubles is their biggest weakness. In the regular season MIT went down 0-3 to Tufts and Bowdoin and 1-2 to Brandeis and Wellesley. But in the regional final, MIT swept Bowdoin in doubles so although I definitely categorize MIT’s doubles as inconsistent, I think they are dangerous on the doubles court when they’re on.
How they got here: With a thrilling upset over the Bowdoin Polar Bears – avenging an 8-1 regular season loss and a huuuuuuge clinch from freshman Tabunshchyk.
What would be considered a success: Obviously an upset win over a verrrry strong Wesleyan would be considered a resounding success for the Engineers
Three words to describe this team: Young, scrappy & hungry
Don’t forget: This team is making back-to-back appearances in the Elite 8. They’re going to be aiming to go further than they have gone before.
Match rundown: So this is actually really exciting because these two teams haven’t met all season – so we have no match history to use to help or hurt us with bias! That being said, the more I think about this match, the more confused I get and the more I wonder how this match will shake out. There are a couple of factors that contribute to the confusion, and I want to call them out. First is the difference in Strength of Schedule between these two teams. Wesleyan has been battle-tested against teams like Emory, Middlebury (x2), Amherst, and other tough NESCAC competition all season. MIT cruised through most of their season with easy wins in the NEWMAC, mixing in some matches against higher-ranked teams like Tufts, Bowdoin, and Chicago. They haven’t played any of the teams we’re considering real title contenders this year, so it’s hard to predict whether they’ll be able to hang with a top team like Wesleyan. The other factor that adds some confusingness is that MIT appears to be peaking right now. Their season started with a disappointing Indoors where they got smoked by Chicago, and they even lost to Bowdoin 8-1 a month ago. But MIT just beat Bowdoin 5-3 in the regional final so it’s clear that they’re playing at a different level now, though it’s impossible to know how different that level is. Slam Tennis (and most bloggers, tbh) are calling this to be a landslide in Wesleyan’s favor. I think a lot of the matches will be very close regardless of the outcome. MIT proves to us for the second year in a row that they play their best in the post-season, so let the games begin!
#1 doubles: Victoria Yu / Kristina Yu (WES) vs. Viktoriya Tabunschchyk / Libby Rickeman (MIT)
NEW: I love the #DoubleYu duo (and not just because of the dope team name), and they have been playing so so well this whole season. Idk if it’s just me, but my sister and I can’t even get through 4 games playing together, so props to the Yu sisters for getting through a whole season. Anyways, they’re up against some pretty formidable opponents in Tabunschchyk and Rickeman. The MIT duo has been playing so well at the top of the lineup this season and have some pretty big wins under their belts. I think this one will be really close to start things off, but I’ll give the sisters the advantage. Wesleyan 8-5.
Analyst: MIT’s top pairing has had a really good season together. They’ve only lost three matches together this spring and should be feeling confident after a convincing 8-2 win over Bowdoin last weekend. However, #DoubleYu has also put together quite the season. They’ve lost more matches than MIT’s #1 dubs team, but Wesleyan has a much harder Strength of Schedule. I think Victoria Yu’s experience is going to factor into this match, and I think Wesleyan team will put out the win, but if Rickeman and Tabunschchyk come out on fire, I think they can win the match. Wesleyan 8-6.
#2 doubles: Venia Yeung / Polina Kiseleva (WES) vs. Megan Guenther / Marina Zhang (MIT)
NEW: Both of these teams are super tough and super difficult to beat. Yeung and Kiseleva have played so well together this spring, but they should not underestimate the firepower that is Guenther and Zhang. The Engineers will absolutely come out swinging and won’t go down without a fight, but ultimately, I don’t think it’ll be enough. Wesleyan 8-3.
Analyst: Yeung and Kiseleva are one of the top #2 teams in the country, having lost only to two doubles teams this spring. Guenther and Zhang have had some up and down results, and although they definitely seem to be on the “up” side of that now (props for a big dubs win against Bowdoin!), I still give the edge to Wesleyan at this spot. Wesleyan 8-3.
#3 doubles: Alexis Almy / Alissa Nakamoto (WES) vs. Lara Rakocevic / Ashley Teng (MIT)
NEW: Almy and Nakamoto hold down the Cards at the bottom of both the singles and the doubles lineup, and are so solid. However, Rakocevic and Teng have been so clutch for the Engineers and have showed they have great chemistry playing together and have had a lot of success this spring as well. Like the other two matches, I think this one will be close, but this time, it’ll swing in favor of the Engineers. MIT 8-7.
Analyst: This match could go either way. Rakocevic and Teng appear to be playing their best doubles of the season now. A month ago, they lost to Bowdoin’s #3 team 1-8 but last weekend beat that same team 8-6. Almy and Nakamoto lost to that Bowdoin team 6-8 when they face them. So I really think either team is capable of winning this match and it will likely depend on which team has a better day on Monday, but I’m going to go with the underdogs sneaking a doubles point from Rakocevic and Teng. MIT 8-6.
#1 singles: Victoria Yu (WES) vs. Libby Rickeman (MIT)
NEW: Victoria Yu is having a fantastic senior year. Rickeman has really impressed me stepping up to the #1 spot with big shoes left to fill by Kohrs, and she has not disappointed. However, Yu is nationals tested, and has been dealing with the pressure and the enjoyment of many years of post-season play. I’m sure she’s looking to end her team career with a bang, and you know what? I think she just might clinch the match for the Cards. Wesleyan 6-4, 6-3.
Analyst: Rickeman started the season on a bit of the wrong foot but has since been a very solid #1 for MIT, coming up with some quality wins over Brandeis, Caltech, and Tufts. But Victoria Yu is finishing her fourth year of plenty of quality wins, has a lot of previous NCAA experience, and I think she’ll be bringing her best to her final NCAAs. I’m giving Yu the advantage here. Wesleyan 6-2, 6-4.
#2 singles: Venia Yeung (WES) vs. Viktoriya Tabunschchyk (MIT)
NEW: We have a battle of the freshmen on our hands here with NEW favorite, Yeung, squaring off against MIT’s clutch city queen, Tabunschchyk. This is the match I’m most excited for – how do these two freshmen handle the big stage? And really, who will come out on top? Given Tabunschchyk’s performance last weekend, I’m going to bet this one takes awhile and probably won’t finish. Wesleyan leads 6-3, 4-3.
Analyst: Like NEW said, this freshman-freshman matchup is bound to be fun. Venia Yeung has established herself as one of the top rookies in D3 this year, but Tabunschchyk is coming off a big clinch in the Bowdoin match. And based on my five minutes of watching that MIT-Bowdoin stream, Tabunschchyk is a big hitter, and I bet she can give anyone trouble on a good day. On an average day, I think Yeung might tough this one out for the Cards, but it’d make for some excitement to see Tabunshchyk’s power turn this match the opposite way. Wesleyan 6-4, 6-4.
#3 singles: Kristina Yu (WES) vs. Marina Zhang (MIT)
NEW: Zhang was in a battle against Bowdoin’s Marks when the match was called, whereas Yu was cruising against Brandeis’ Khromchenko when their match was called. The two are very equally matched and I think we’ll get a pretty good game from the pair. I give Yu the upper hand, though, but I think she’ll be battling some first-time-at-natties nerves at the beginning of the match. Wesleyan 6-4, 6-2.
Analyst: The younger Yu has been a vital contributor to Wesleyan’s success this year, and I think she’ll be feeling the excitement of her first NCAAs. MIT’s sophomore Zhang started out with a couple losses at Indoors but since then has been as solid as can be for her team. I think Yu has the slight advantage, but I think Zhang will really push her and not allow this match to come to an end. Wesleyan leads 6-4, 3-4.
#4 singles: Polina Kiseleva (WES) vs. Lara Rakocevic (MIT)
NEW: Kiseleva is one of the steadiest 4s out there and has had a great season this spring. Rakocevic is having a great junior year. Both are coming into the quarters playing great tennis, and I’m thinking this one will be a really good match to watch. I’m going to guess the two will be locked in a tight battle and won’t be finished when the match is called. MIT leads 7-5, 2-3.
Analyst: Wesleyan sophomore Kiseleva hasn’t lost a singles match since March 10. But MIT junior Rakocevic has been fire for her team at #4 singles, only losing one match since March 9. And Rakocevic was the first to pull out a singles win against Bowdoin, so she should be playing with confidence right now. I think this will be an absolute battle, and one that we may not get to see finish. MIT leads 7-6, 2-3.
#5 singles: Alexis Almy (WES) vs. Ashley Teng (MIT)
NEW: The bottom of the lineup for Wes has been so strong all season, whereas the Engineers have struggled a bit more in these spots. Almy (and Nakamoto for that matter) have been absolute walls – getting everything back and taking down their opponents match after match. However, they most recent common opponent (Bowdoin’s Sasa Jovanovic) really took it to both of them – with both embroiled in battles when their matches were called. I think this one will be pretty close and also won’t finish. Wesleyan leads 7-5, 2-3.
Analyst: Ashley Teng has settled into her spot in the Engineers lineup and been a really solid performer. Before her loss in the regional finals last weekend, she had a 15-match winning streak going, which included wins over Brandeis, Tufts, and Bowdoin. Almy has also had some really good wins for Wesleyan. She did retire in her singles match against Brandeis in the regional final so I hope she’s recovered from any injuries by Kalamazoo. Like NEW, I think this match won’t get a chance to finish, but I think it would have the potential to split sets. MIT leads 7-5, 1-4.
#6 singles: Alissa Nakamoto (WES) vs. Megan Guenther (MIT)
NEW: Like Almy, Nakamoto has been such a solid presence at the bottom of the Wes lineup. Guenther has also had a great season for MIT, and the sophomore has really stepped it up this season. However, I think this one will go by way of the Cards, with Nakamoto taking it in two straightforward sets. Wesleyan 6-3, 6-2.
Analyst: Nakamoto has been a great #6 player for Wesleyan this season, but Guenther has also been a key contributor for MIT, coming up with wins in some of the Engineers’ close matches (Tufts, Brandeis). I think this matchup could be close, but I’m giving Nakamoto the advantage here because Wesleyan and Nakamoto have been competing against top teams all season, while MIT’s played a limited number of matches against teams ranked above them, so this will be a step up from the competition Guenther is used to seeing. Wesleyan 6-4, 6-2
Overall prediction:
NEW: Wes 5-1
Analyst: Wes 5-1
And that’s all from us, folks! But don’t worry, Analyst and I will be back because it is guaranteed there will be at least one NE team in the semis! As always, if you have any questions, comments, bones you’d like to pick, etc. feel free to drop me an email at d3newomens@gmail.com, drop a comment or slide into my DMs on Twitter @D3NEWomens. And Analyst (d3womensanalyst@gmail.com) likes getting mail too!!