2019 NCAA Regional Preview: Chicago Region
Late Night Wall of Text Alert!!
…And then there were four. After a day of play, Chicago’s Regional is left with four teams vying for a spot in the Elite Eight: Chicago, Augustana, GAC, and Grinnell. Augustana upset a hot Luther team 5-0 that had just given a Coe (albeit a down year Coe) a beating in the conference finals to get to the tournament while Grinnell cleaned up past a St. Scholastica squad to the tune of 5-0. Both Augustana and Grinnell can relish in the fact that they not only made the tournament (a massive feat) but won a round as well. If the matches were swapped, we’d be looking at two very tight contests in the 2nd round. Augustana slid past Grinnell in the regular season 5-4 to take away Grinnell’s national ranking and as great a match the rematch would be, it simply isn’t in the cards. Both Grinnell and Augustana gave out bagels today, and I think their serving of carbs is due with matches against GAC and Chicago. In last three matchups (1 in 2018, Regular Season 2017, and PostSeason 2017) GAC has defeated the higher ranked Maroons twice – once in 2017’s upset of the year and again in 2018 to show that the previous season’s result wasn’t a mistake. Chicago is looking to end their two match losing streak to GAC and reverse the 2017 Regional that saw Chicago lose an Elite Eight spot to GAC. Chicago’s win rode the coattails of a doubles sweep, while GAC took 2-1 leads in the other two matches. Chicago’s doubles have been a point of strength this season, and while I won’t predict a sweep of GAC anytime soon, Chicago has the ability to get a necessary doubles lead. This Regional has always been about Chicago v. GAC Rd 4, our first matchup between these central giants this year, and this preview will focus on the respective likelihoods that they move on to the next round.
CHICAGO
NCAA Rank/Blog Power Rank/Slam Tennis Rank: #5/#6/#3
Power 6: 70
How they got here: Third Place in the UAA tournament. Chicago received one of the few Pool C spots available and did so based on a regular season resume filled to the brim with excellence. The National Indoor Champions had a hiccup to “should be NCAA participant” Brandeis in the UAA semis, but aside from that have only lost to the tournament favorite’s CMS (in California). Chicago defeated: Kalamazoo, Denison, Case x 2, Wash U x 3, Emory, Pomona, Williams, and Rochester this year and that’s how they got to the tournament.
Why they can win: Hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard…but what happens when talent also works hard? Chicago has all the talent d3tennis has to offer and a work ethic to try a prevent that talent from going to waste. Chicago can win this Regional (and the whole damn thing) because they have a puncher’s chance at all nine spots in the lineup, and their two freshmen might be the best at their position in the nation. Chicago’s doubles are a point of strength now, and while they don’t have the cream of past years the depth in Chicago could carry them all the way.
How they can be beaten: Relying on depth, doubles, and first years isn’t a strategy that always works at the highest level. Chicago is putting a ton of faith in Guzhva and Xu to secure three points between them every time they go out there. While Chicago may be favored in every match at 5 and 6, they most certainly will not be favored at every match at 1. Kerrigan’s up and down year – especially in big matches – could create an avenue for the Maroons to be beaten.
Player to watch: Charlie Pei – I’ve said my piece on how important Guzhva and Xu will be for this team, but the lone senior in the singles lineup is my player to watch. Pei has paired up with Xu to create a deadly three doubles tandem capable of beating anyone in the region (ITA finalists), but his move back up to three singles from six has been his best quality this year. Pei used to play 3 and after a long stint at 5/6 he returns. Chicago’s depth is their biggest singles strength this year, and Pei’s play will determine whether that strength begins at 3 or 4.
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 64%
GAC
ITA Rank/Blog Power Rank/Slam Tennis Rank: #16/#21/#19
Power 6: 66
How they got here: Pool A darlings from the North defeated the Vithoontien led Usurpers 5-1 in the MIAC conference final. GAC has been a top 12 team in the middle of the US, but their two trips to California (and I’m mostly talking about Stag-Hen) were not as kind to the Gusties. GAC won when it mattered (which for Pool A is really only their conference final) and find themselves with another opportunity to spoil Chicago’s postseason plans – or maybe it should be sadi the other way around…GAC is riding a two match winning streak over Chicago going in to this one.
Why they can win: GAC plays phenomenal doubles, Whaling, Johnson, and Derbani are better than you think, and GAC believes that they can do this again. Whaling and Johnson are favored to put a point on the board at the top every time they step out on the doubles court, while the other two teams are technical and well coached enough to help make up for the talent gap between GAC and Chicago. They can win because GAC is favored to take a doubles lead, and they have the horses to gut out at least three singles points. Like Chicago, GAC fills the bottom half of their singles ladder with youth – it should bode well for both teams as the first years should feel equally nervous.
How they can be beaten: For all the quality Whaling and Johnson possess, this GAC team still lost to Sewanee and Skidmore – teams far worse and far less talented than this Chicago team. Chicago is more talented up and down their lineup and their strength is GAC’s weakness: singles depth. GAC can be beaten (by Chicago) because 4-6 are going to be considerably overmatched, and because Whaling & Johnson could play GOAT level and that’s still only three points.
Player to watch: Nick Aney – 5 singles and 2 doubles are going to be mighty important for GAC’s hopes to upset Chicago and make the Elite Eight. The first year showed out in his first National Indoors. Aney’s athleticism and hockey background proved beneficial under the Cleveland roof, but will they be enough to push the Gusties to a doubles lead is yet to be seen. If Aney can secure his two points, GAC will win this match – watch for him.
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 36%
Grinnell/Augustana
ITA Rank/Blog Power Rank/Slam Tennis Rank: NR/NR/49 Grinnell/ 53 Augustana
Power 6: 59
How they got here: Grinnell dominated the Midwest Conference tournament without dropping a point. They similarly stomped St. Scholastica and have not lost a point in a dual match since April 19th. Grinnell is here on the back of a 26-4 campaign featuring a current 13 match winning streak. Augustana is here with a 25-6 record after similarly stomping through CCIW tournament. Augustana is here against Chicago because they were able to flip the script on Luther (who they lost to in the regular season) in a 5-0 dismantling of the Norse. Augustana rode the not-that-close doubles sweep to a quick victory, which is a good thing because the box showed that the rest of that match could’ve gotten hair for Augustana and heroic for Luther.
Why they can win: Tree and just keep treeing until the point is over – 48 times should do it per singles match.
How they can be beaten: Both of these teams are the underdogs, if the matches are played the odds are that they will be beaten.
Player to watch: Ben Cobin, Caio DeRezende
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: <.01%