2019 NCAA Regional Preview: Amherst Region
We’re now deep (DEEP!) into our NCAA Regional Previews, and the first matches are actually underway. Luckily, most of the Regionals don’t start until Friday so we still have a bit of time to finish up these previews. This is a bit of a hodgepodge of a region, with UMW making the trip up to Amherst along with NCAA regulars like Stevens, Nichols, Wilkes and UMass-Boston. On the surface this make look like a yawner of a region. Yes, Amherst is the CLEAR favorite, but don’t let Mary Wash fool you. Just because they are a boring lock for NCAAs doesn’t mean this is the same Eagle team as recent years. Let’s all remember that the streak is broken! And yes, Stevens lost a conference match for the first time since the Civil War, but they have been playing their best tennis of late and deserve their top-35 ranking. As this is an abnormal assortment of teams, we have an abnormal assortment of writers in D3AS, NewRegional, and myself (actually that’s kind of the norm for these previews!) here to take a closer look.
AMHERST
ITA Rank/Blog Power Rank/Slam Tennis Rank: #4/#3/#8
Power 6: 70
How they got here: Amherst is one of the top two Pool-C teams, along with Chicago, as both were the top ranked teams who didn’t win their respective conferences (NESCAC and UAA). Amherst entered NESCACs as the conference’s top seed after winning the regular season crown by beating Midd, Bowdoin and Williams (along with everybody else in the conference except for Wesleyan). Amherst took early season losses to Wash U (which apparently is the reason the Bears got in over Brandeis) and Case, but bounced back strong with a home win over CMS and then their aforementioned NESCAC successes.
Why they can win: This Regional? Because they are the best team top to bottom. I don’t think UMW will be favored at a single spot against Amherst, and maybe Stevens would be at #1 doubles. That doesn’t mean they won’t lose a point (see 2013 Nichols), but it would take an upset the likes of which we haven’t really seen before in recent years of NCAA play. That was a long way of saying that the Mammoths are really strong top to bottom, they don’t have a true weakness and will be tough to beat at any point in this tournament.
How they can be beaten: Much like Wesleyan, even though Amherst doesn’t really have any weak spots, they are also not unbeatable at any of the nine spots. They’re strongest spot is probably #2 doubles, and again I don’t foresee them having any real trouble to advance out of this regional, but when they matchup with top-8 teams in the QFs or beyond they won’t be big favorites at any particular position. That doesn’t meant they’ll lose, they have a real shot to win the whole damn thing, but it means we should see a lot of close matches and this current team doesn’t have much experience with the second week of NCAAs…
Player to watch: Zach Bessette. The lone starting Mammoth senior plays #2 doubles and #4 singles and has a couple of VERY big wins this year for Herst. You all should know by now there is a reason why the bloggers pick senior-heavy teams at NCAAs. Amherst doesn’t count as senior-heavy by any stretch of the imagination, but look out for Bessette to do some damage as his swan song.
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 91.4%
MARY WASHINGTON
ITA Rank/Blog Power Rank/Slam Tennis Rank: #15/#15/#16
Power 6: 66
How they got here: Mary Washington once again won the CAC Championship, finishing with a great ranking in the top 15 as well. Mary Wash has used their depth and strong doubles play all year to keep their success going while breaking a long losing streak to Pomona and Redlands this year as well. UMW has done it’s thing this year and enters the tournament as a strong #2 seed.
Why they can win: As mentioned earlier, UMW gets their wins with doubles and depth. The bottom of the lineup has won them countless matches over the course of the year. UMW absolutely needs a 2-1 lead if they are going to take out Amherst, and they’ll need their workhorses Tecce and Hutchison to take some matches at the bottom of the lineup. It’s not overly likely that UMW wins, but they certainly have one of the better shots out of many of the #2 seeds.
How they can be beaten: Simple. You need to take the spots at the top of the lineup to give yourself an advantage. While Hughes and Miles are good players, they have not done great against top competition and Amherst certainly represents that. This leaves very margin for error the rest of the way. UMW also relies on doubles but it is definitely possible for them to lose the doubles portion of the match. Win doubles, and you are looking real good against the Eagles.
Player to watch: Matt Miles – the Eagles need Miles to step up if they are to upset the Mammoths.
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 8%
STEVENS
ITA Rank/Blog Power Rank/Slam Tennis Rank: #32/#35/#50
Power 6: 61
How they got here: Stevens had a wild ride to the Empire 8 championship, but by the end of the year proved that they belong. They are again in the top 35 despite tough losses to unranked Houghton earlier in the year and really a ton of other teams. Stevens ended the year on fire, though, and won the E8 with relative ease. Good to see this team back in business after what could have been a disastrous season.
Why they can win: They’re resilient and are a much different team than they were at the start of the year. Marc Feliu Gomez and Bryan Szayna have been en fuego at #1 doubles, and as we all know, a doubles lead is pretty much a necessity if a team wants to pull an upset. If Stevens can steal another doubles point and go up 2-1, they’ll have a shot to knock off UMW.
How they can be beaten: Stevens isn’t beating Amherst, but the match against UMW could be interesting. UMW beat the Ducks 8-1 earlier in the year. Going up against a team that’s already smoked you once isn’t always great for the confidence. Outside of #1 doubles, there’s not a spot in Stevens’ lineup that’s a reliable point, and that makes it hard for this team to make a run.
Player to watch: Arjun Krishnan. Stevens needs points at the bottom if they want to win. Arjun is their best shot at #6.
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: .5%
NICHOLS/WILKES/UMASS-BOSTON
ITA Rank/Blog Power Rank/Slam Tennis Rank: NR/NR/NR, NR/NR/NR, NR/NR/NR
Power 6’s: 55/51/40
How they got here: Just like their Bison brethren of North Dakota State in football, the Nichols Bison have created a little dynasty of their own in the Commonwealth Coast Conference. Nichols won their 8th straight CCC title by beating Western New England 5-0 in the conference finals. Wilkes calls those 8 titles, and raises 4 more. The Colonels won their 12th straight Middle Atlantic Conference Freedom title by beating Manhattanville 5-0. UMass Boston won the Little East Conference, defeating Salem State 5-0 in the conference finals
Why they can win: We’ll have a competitive first round matchup between Nichols and Wilkes, and though Nichols is favored on paper, I’m going Wilkes all day. Why? They have the best player. Though Courtney Murphy hasn’t replicated his All-American sophomore campaign, the senior has still been damn good. His only D3 loss this spring was to Peter Anker of Wesleyan, and Courtney will be a heavy favorite in his match at #1 against Nichols’ Blake Norton. If Murphy can put 2 points on the board for Wilkes, they’ll find another 3 elsewhere to clinch the 5-4 win.
How they can be beaten: Outside of Murphy and maybe Norton, I don’t think anyone else on these teams has the juice to run with Stevens, UMW and Amherst, but hey, that’s why they play the matches – prove me wrong guys!
Player(s) to watch: Courtney Murphy (Wilkes)
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: <.1%