OK, it’s time to start our flurry of NCAA coverage. Like the men’s side, we’re going to be doing previews of all 8 regions over the next couple of days, and I’m here to kick things off with the Kenyon/CMU region. While #11 CMU is the number 1 seed, #13 Kenyon will be hosting in Gambier, Ohio. First round play starts on Thursday with Kenyon and CMU receiving first round byes. The teams who will be playing in this region are #11 CMU, #13 Kenyon, #33 Hope, John Carroll, Wheaton (Ill.), and Principia.
I don’t have a regional assistant for this article so I will be flying solo. I barely know what I’m talking about with my regular teams so you can imagine how little I’ll know about these Central regional teams. I’m going to use this as an opportunity to put out a call for more writers on the Women’s side! It’s a lot of fun. We get brunch. Sometimes you get roasted on twitter but sometimes you get to roast the men’s writers on twitter so it’s worth. E-mail me at d3asouthwomens@gmail.com. I don’t bite. I’ll probably be really excited. Just ask the Analyst.
CARNEGIE MELLON
ITA Rank: #11
How they got here: CMU finished 3rd in the UAA conference and made the tournament via Pool C. This season they’ve gotten wins over Brandeis, Mary Washington, Washington and Lee, NYU, and Wash U and have only taken losses to teams in the top 10. They made a trip to Kenyon earlier this season BUT only played Denison (I think they scheduled a double header with Denison and Kenyon but cancelled Kenyon).
Why they can win: While there are stronger schools out there, CMU is geographically blessed by being close enough to the Central teams to necessitate a trip to Ohio. In this regional, CMU is the clear favorite. Kenyon has been playing well but CMU is just a little stronger at almost every spot in the lineup. At UAA’s they steamrolled Brandeis and lost a 5-1 decision to Emory, though the remaining matches were very competitive and the team score could have easily been 5-4 if singles had been played to completion. Additionally, CMU has been here before, with many Elite 8 appearances over the past 10 years, while Kenyon hasn’t been to the Elite 8 since the 1900s.
How they can be beaten: CMU is probably pretty confident coming into this weekend but they will not be playing at home. Every spot in their lineup, particularly in doubles, has had some blips throughout the season and are far from unbeatable. If doubles is particularly shaky on Saturday against Kenyon and they go down 1-2 or 0-3, I’d give Kenyon a fighting change.
Player to watch: Jamie Vizelman. Jamie is a senior who has played #2 singles all season and was recently put in at #3 doubles (though this could potentially change again for all I know). She has the game to play with any #2 in the country but has also managed to take a few losses, making her not as much of a guarantee as Taylor at #1 singles. I think this will be a big weekend for her – she’s playing for keeps now as this is the last of her college tennis. She’ll be the favorite in all of her matches this weekend.
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 70%
KENYON
ITA Rank: #13
How they got here: By winning the North Coast Athletic Conference for the third straight year. During the regular season they notched ranked wins over Wash U (x2). Mary Washington, Washington and Lee, Swarthmore, Case Western, Denison, and Gustavus Adolphus. Most of those matches were 6-3 or closer.
Why they can win: This is the best season Kenyon has had in 20 years and they’re one of the most battle tested teams in the country. They have a lot of talent but have also been put through the ringer in quite a few matches this season and been able to come out on top. They’re also playing at home. One of the most memorable fan comments I heard in college was at an away match when a tennis fan shouted “Don’t let her steal your house!” This regional is at Kenyon’s house and it’s up to them to not let CMU steal it.
How they can be beaten: CMU has been here before and while Kenyon is deep, I think CMU is just a little bit deeper. Both teams have had ups and downs in doubles and I expect the score to be 2-1 either way after doubles, but I think CMU is favored at almost every spot in the singles lineup.
Player to watch: Maggie Sweeney. I’m going with the seniors today. Sweeney plays #1 doubles and #3 singles and has been lights out with Erika Oku in dubs. She’s had some mixed results in singles but will be defending her house this weekend, and a potential matchup with streaky Vinaya Rao from CMU could get interesting. Her team will be counting on her, especially in doubles.
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 30%
HOPE
ITA Rank: #33
How they got here: The Flying Dutch won their 8th straight Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association (MIAA) conference title. This season their big wins were over Case Western and UW-Whitewater, and they narrowly lost to both Wash U and Gustavus Adolphus by a 5-4 score in April.
Why they can win: Hm. Well they have two singles players currently ranked in the Top 7 in Central individual rankings so they definitely have some talent but taking out Kenyon then CMU the next day is going to be tough.
How they can be beaten: Depth is going to be the main issue here against the higher seeded teams.
Player to watch: Claire Hallock and Amanda Bandrowski. Hallock has had a great season at #1 singles so far with wins over Paolucci of Case Western and Bri Hartmann of GAC. She’s currently ranked #6 in the Central region. Bandrowski has held down #2 singles and is ranked #7 in the Central region, and she is UNDEFEATED in D3 play this year (she defaulted in her quarterfinal match at fall regionals against Catherine Xu of Chicago).
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: <0.1%
JOHN CARROLL/WHEATON(ILL.)/PRINCIPIA
How they got here: John Carroll is 15-5 on the season and won the Ohio Athletic Conference (OAC) for the fourth straight season. Wheaton is 16-5 and won the College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin (CCIW). Principia won the St. Louis Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (SLIAC) but got into the tournament via Pool B.
Why they can win: There are some talented players on these teams. Anything can happen.
How they can be beaten: JCU previously lost to CMU 0-9, other matches against top teams have gone similarly.
Player(s) to watch: Carlye Campagna (John Carroll), Lauren O’Malley (John Carroll, #1 ranked singles player in Central region), Madisyn Rini (John Carroll), Sara Magnuson (Wheaton), Emma Westwick (Wheaton), Paige Cooley (Principia), Hallie Jones (Principia). All seniors ending their careers with an NCAA appearance; that’s pretty cool.
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: <0.1%
How the weekend is going to play out: So I’m adding this in an attempt to do some predicting and hopefully bias anyone who is relying on me for information about brackets. If I’m wrong I’m planning on taking as many of you down with me as I can.
On Thursday, Hope takes on Principia and John Carroll takes on Wheaton. Principia might get 1 or 2 points off of Hope if they’re having a good day or Hope is having a bad day but I don’t think that match will be much of a barn burner. Wheaton and John Carroll have not played each other this season and John Carroll has O’Malley as their biggest weapon and guaranteed point. I put Wheaton over JCU in my bracket based on their result against their only common opponent, Kalamazoo. Wheaton beat Kzoo 9-0 while JCU won 5-4 so I’m guessing Wheaton might come in with more depth, but I wouldn’t put too much stock in that opinion.
On Friday, CMU plays JCU/Wheaton and neither of those schools will get a point off of CMU. Kenyon will play Hope most likely and I’m guessing a doubles sweep for Kenyon followed by 2 quick singles wins.
On Saturday, CMU and Kenyon will face off. I’m going to guess a 2-1 CMU lead after doubles and Kenyon will make it seem close for a while before CMU pulls out the match at 5-3.
The end. More articles to come!
ASW