Bowdoin and Middlebury withstood haymakers from Williams and Tufts respectively today, and in doing so should have clinched their spot into NCAAs. Now the only questions that remains are whether that entry will be through Pool-A or Pool-C, and what overall seed will the four NESCAC teams earn? Even with the wins today, something tells me Coaches Fried, Hansen and Smith all wouldn’t mind another big conference win tomorrow just to erase any and all doubt (hopefully Coach Doebler can rest easier based on Amherst’s regular season results). I usually go through and discuss what’s at stake for each team and the recipes for success, but given that the all four teams are basically playing for the same thing at this point, let’s switch it up and go for some good old fashioned match by match previews. I’ll tell you right now I’m going predicting two 5-4 matches even though the tournament is played to decision, because that’s what should happen given the regular season we had in the NESCAC!
No. 4 Bowdoin vs No. 1 Amherst
This one is scheduled for 9 a.m. and is the first match of the day so there shouldn’t be any delays. As of Friday evening at 10:54 p.m., the weather at Midd is supposed to be high 40’s and cloudy at 9 a.m., so there’s still a decent chance this one moves indoors, and then we play the rest outside as the day warms up and the sun comes out. If indoors, Bowdoin has the edge of having already played one match on the Midd indoor courts, but they didn’t look all that impressive in singles while doing so. The Polar Bears jumped out to a 3-0 lead after sweeping doubles, only to watch Williams take all four first sets (only playing on four courts) and come roaring back to tie the match at 3. As expected, Jiang and Urken finished the job and ended the Ephs’ season. Bowdoin also swept doubles the last time these two teams played, but Amherst did what Williams could not today and came all the way back. Let’s take a look at the individual matchups.
#1 doubles: Urken/Jiang (Bowdoin) vs Fung/Wei (Amherst). Urken and Jiang just go about their business and win like it’s their job. Well, for the past three years it basically has been. I see no reason why that shouldn’t continue tomorrow. Bowdoin 8-5.
#2 doubles: Wang/Fortier (Bowdoin) vs Bessette/Foulkes (Amherst). Wang and Fortier were SUPER impressive today against Williams, but this Mammoth #2 team is a very tough out. Unless the Polar Bear duo comes out on fire like they did today, I like Amherst 8-6.
#3 doubles: Yang/Patel (Bowdoin) vs Ruparel/Turchetta (Amherst). Probably the swing match. Patel and Yang smoked the freshman team of Turchetta and Foulkes last time, but now it’s a different freshman they’ll face in Ruparel. Still and edge to the Polar Bears, even if it’s slight. Bowdoin 8-6.
#1 singles: Grant Urken (Bowdoin) vs Sean Wei (Amherst). This was the biggest surprise of the last go around, as Wei knocked off Urken in straight sets! After watching Urk have his way in both singles and doubles today I’m not picking against him, especially indoors. Bowdoin 6-4, 6-3.
#2 singles: Jerry Jiang (Bowdoin) vs Kevin Ma (Amherst). Jiang played the hero again today against Barr, and while Barr looked like the better/more aggressive player for most of the match, it was Jerry who got his team the much needed win. Jiang won this matchup with relative ease last time, and even though he may be tired I’m still taking him here. Bowdoin 7-6, 6-3.
#3 singles: Oscar Yang (Bowdoin) vs Jayson Fung (Amherst). This is where we start to see a shift. As dope as Yang’s tuft of purple hair is, he’s wearing it on the wrong weekend going against Williams and Amherst back to back. Fung won this matchup last time, and I think it’s close but he does so again. Amherst, 6-4, 2-6, 7-5.
#4 singles: Evan Fortier (Bowdoin) vs Zach Bessette (Amherst). Fortier played a mean #6 this year, but seems to be punching slightly above his weigh at #4. If Wang is back in the singles lineup, that changes things, but I like the senior here. Amherst, 6-3, 6-3.
#5 singles: Justin Patel (Bowdoin) vs Harris Foulkes (Amherst). This was the DRAMA-filled match last time, with Foulkes coming back from a set down and winning this one 7-6 in the 3rd set to clinch the match. Patel played a tough three setter today so Harris will have the fresher legs, but Patel has the big match experience. This is a major swing match. Amherst, 6-3, 4-6, 6-3.
#6 singles: Luke Carstens (Bowdoin) vs Will Turchetta (Amherst). You all know how much I love the idea of a senior who doesnt usually start stepping in at the twilight of his career when his team needs him most. Unfortunately, until I see Carstens proves he can hang, I have to take the freshman. Amherst, 6-2, 6-2.
TOTAL PREDICTION: Amherst def Bowdoin 5-4
No. 2 Wesleyan @ No. 3 Middlebury
Middlebury overcame a doubles deficit against Tufts earlier today, and though this one wasn’t nearly as strenuous as the last time these two played, the Jumbos pushed the Panthers yet again (which was kind of their thing this season). Midd is your defending champs for a reason, they know how to win when it matters most, but we also shouldn’t be crowning this team by any stretch of the imagination. This match is scheduled for an 11:30 a.m. start time so they should be ok to play this one outdoors, which I believe favors Wesleyan. Not necessarily because they are a better outdoor team, but because Midd would have at least a slight advantage playing on their own indoor courts. When these two played a month ago they suited up outdoors at Midd and Wesleyan came away victorious 6-3, including two tight three-set wins. The teams have changed since then, honestly mostly Middlebury, but we should see a similar battle tomorrow.
#1 doubles: Roji/Lilienthal (Wesleyan) vs Cuba/Martin (Midd). While Cuba and Martin have played better than Cuba and Eazor did together this year, Roji and Lilienthal have been the best team in the region and arguably the country. Wes 8-5.
#2 doubles: Carter/Holtzman (Wesleyan) vs Farrell/Samets (Midd). I like both of these pairings a bit better than what each team had the last time around. This Midd team can get hot, but I’m going with the Cards. Wes 8-7.
#3 doubles: Finkelman/Sweeney (Wesleyan) vs Xiao/Eazor (Midd). Tough to pick a sweep, especially considering how close the lower doubles spots are, and that’s the only reason I’m not taking the Cards here too. Midd 8-4.
#1 singles: Andrew Finkleman (Wesleyan) vs Lubo Cuba (Midd). We saw a classic the last time these two played, with the two trading 6-4 sets and Finkelman broke away in the 3rd for a late win. It’ll be close no matter what, but if indoors, I think this is Cuba’s match. Since we’re leaning outdoors at the moment it’s a tossup, but Cuba looked VERY good beating Sorkin today so I’ll take #Lube. Midd 7-5, 6-4.
#2 singles: Peter Anker (Wesleyan) vs Noah Farrell (Midd). Bad matchup here for Anker who likes to play fast points and work his way into net. Tough to work your way into net against Farrell, and if he’s playing well this one could be over quickly. Midd 6-3, 6-1.
#3 singles: Adrien Roji (Wesleyan) vs Andre Xiao (Midd). Roji won this matchup 6-4 in the 3rd set to clinch the last time these two played. Xiao battled back from a set down today but was ultimately beaten by Gorelik, which means he’ll be both tired and perhaps even a little timid tomorrow. Wes 6-4, 6-4.
#4 singles: Noah Lilienthal (Wesleyan) vs Adam Guo (Midd). HUGE matchup here. Both of these guys have been great this year and could be the team MVPs. I even think there’s a chance we see these guys moved up again before the end of the year. Tight one here. Wes 6-4, 3-6, 6-4
#5 singles: Princeton Carter (Wesleyan) vs Nate Eazor (Midd). Another MASSIVE singles matchup. Eazor didnt play singles the last time these two met, and Guo beat Prince in straight sets. Nobody beats Princeton Carter twice in the same year. NOBODY! Wes 6-4, 7-6.
#6 singles: Zach Lieb (Wesleyan) vs Stanley Morris (Midd). Morris started the year at #3 and has steadily moved downward, but may have found his home as the Panther anchor. Lieb has been great in tough situations for the Cardinals all year long, so this one is once again quite tough. Midd 5-7, 6-3, 6-3.
TOTAL PREDICTION: Wesleyan def. Midd 5-4
Always exciting!