We’ve come to the final weekend of April, which means it’s the final weekend of the regular season in the NE. Yes, even when UAAs and The Ojai dominate the headlines, there are still some big time matches to be played in my neck of the woods, with plenty of both conference and NCAA implications. The winner of the Amherst/Middlebury match should earn the regular season crown, the top seed at NESCACs next weekend, and be guaranteed at least a top-4 seed at NCAAs if they win the conference tournament too (BIG if). Meanwhile Bowdoin, who has made three consecutive Final Fours (the first three in program history) has two different matches that both could be construed as must-wins in order to make NCAAs. Tufts and Bowdoin kick us off in about an hour so let’s get to it.
#17 Tufts @ #5 Bowdoin
When: Friday at 1 p.m.
Weather: 50 and rainy so expect this one to be indoors. Usually Bowdoin plays at Maine Pines, which are fairly normal, albeit slightly fast indoor courts. Slight edge to Bowdoin if indoors.
What’s at stake: NESCAC seeding and Pool-C implications galore! Every other team vying for the NESCAC crown has escaped this Tufts team with a close win. Williams and Wesleyan both beat the Bos 5-4, while Midd overcame a doubles sweep and Amherst got two third set wins for a 6-3 final. After beating Bates and Colby (handily I might add), Tufts is locked in at least the No. 6 team for NESCACs, but a win over Bowdoin would actually push the Bos up the No. 5 seed and make it even tougher for Bowdoin to make NCAAs (they might actually need two NESCAC tournament wins after that?)
How Tufts can win: Because they are a better team than their record shows. RegNE/C put it best in his Power Ranking blurbs a few weeks ago when he said that this Tufts team has a big monkey on their back at the moment. What happens when you defeat that monkey? I wouldn’t want to be the team that determined the answer to that question. This will be slightly less eloquent than D3AS was in his last Pool-C article, but he’s right that Tufts is not going to make NCAAs through an at-large berth. That said, he is wrong to discount the Bos, who absolutely have the talent to win NESCACs, even though it’s more than unlikely. They have solid results at different times of the year at almost every spot in their lineup. Sorkin is arguably the best player in the country, and you’d have to think that at some point they are going to pull off that upset win…
Why Bowdoin is favored: On paper, they are a better team. They are also super strong at the top, but they play better doubles and are deeper. They have players who have been through these types of crucial matches many times over, and have actually won those deciding matches, which makes them very different from Tufts. Even though their depth hasn’t been as good as years past, they should still be favored at the bottom of the lineup as well.
Swing match: Cmon, how could it be anything but Sorkin vs Urken? Sorkin’s unbeaten streak ended at 17 earlier this spring, but he’s still compiled a remarkable 22-3 record on the year, and his only in-region loss was a 3rd set loss to Cuba two weeks ago. Urken on the other hand is 14-2, and his only in-region loss was to Wei, also two weeks ago. They are two of the best three players in the region (Cuba) and should both be getting seeds at NCAA Individuals. This is a match Tufts needs more than Bowdoin, but given how shaky Bowdoin’s depth can be at times this a big match!
Individual implications: See above. Look, neither Boris nor Grant will be out of NCAAs or anything close to it, but a win for Urken will PROBABLY net him the #1 ranking in the region unless he loses to Cuba in a hypothetical NESCACs match. A win for Sorkin keeps him in the running for the top spot in the region, as all of the top three will have beaten each other. Jiang is currently sitting at #7 and has a must win against Pentousis. Jiang/Urken are #2 in the region and should be ok even if they were to lose this/one other match, but
Prediction:
Bowdoin def Tufts either 5-4 or 6-3 in a tight match with multiple 3-setters
#6 Middlebury @ #7 Amherst
When: Saturday at 12 p.m.
Weather: Mid-high 40’s and rainy, so this one probably is indoors as well. We just saw Herst fall quickly indoors against Wesleyan last weekend, but that was AT Wes. Amherst has beaten CMS indoors on their home courts, so expect an edge to the Mammoths.
What’s at stake: THE FREAKIN NESCAC REGULAR SEASON TITLE AND NO. 1 SEED IN THE CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT. You might say, well who really cares about the top seed, but the loser of this match will likely fall all the way down to the No. 3 seed, which means they would likely have to play Tufts (and both these teams struggled to 6-3 victories that came down to the last two matches). Not only is that conference QF scary enough, but it means your best players are far more tired on Saturday for the semifinal which would go A LONG ways in determining your NCAA seed.
How Middlebury can win: They are playing better doubles again after switching up their top teams. Cuba and Farrell are back to being an unstoppable two-headed monster. The depth is showing signs of improvement. All in all, once again, Midd is starting to play its best tennis of 2019 at the most important time. If that trend continues, they will be beyond scary in May, and could emerge as CMS’ biggest contender.
How Amherst can win: They have come up big when it matters most all year long, and are playing on their home courts, which, if indoors, give the Mammoths an edge. Don’t try to tell me that’s not important either. In a conference where the top are separated by a razor-thin margin and the difference between winning the conference and having to play in the quarterfinal round will likely be one point in one match at the end of a long season, every edge is crucial. Kind of like Wesleyan, Amherst doesn’t have any standout strengths or weaknesses. Their team is mostly just strong all the way through. That sort of team should fare well against a team like Midd who is very strong at certain spots and somewhat weaker at others.
Swing match: #3 singles, Andre Xiao vs Jayson Fung. Xiao has been thrust into the spotlight after starting the year further down in the lineup, he’s been taking on some really good players over the last month and has gone toe to toe with all of them. He’s come out with about a .500 record against top teams, both winning and losing some big matches. Fung also started the season a bit lower in the lineup, and hasn’t been winning at #3 lately, but we know how good he is on the right day, and especially at home indoors. This should be a battle, and I expect this one to stay close all the way through. Midd has the edge at the top, Herst appears to have the edge at the bottom, barring a doubles sweep the winner of this match will give his team a HUGE lift towards the NESCAC crown.
Individual implications: Wei vs Cuba will be a big one, and Wei can cement his NCAA status with a win. Sean moved up from No. 14 in the region to No. 6 in the last rankings, and while a loss to Cuba wont hurt him, it puts him in a precarious position at NESCACs. Farrell’s retirement against Bates dropped him a couple spots, and he’s now on the verge of missing NCAAs which would be a crime. A win over Ma won’t push him over the top, but a loss would be devastating. The new-ish team of Fung and Wei are up to No. 8 in the regional rankings, but a win over the new Midd top team isn’t going to help all that much. Realistically, that Amherst duo needs a shot at two of the top three teams in the region at NESCACs to have any chance.
Prediction: Midd def Amherst 5-4 (doubles lead, wins at #1/#2 and either #3 or #4).
#5 Bowdoin @ #8 Williams
When: Saturday at 2 p.m.
Weather: Low-mid 40’s and rainy, so we are likely to have all three big matches played indoors this weekend.
What’s at stake: How about a Pool-C bid? The winner of this matchup will be thrust into a three-way tie for 2nd place in the NESCAC, while the loser (assuming Bowdoin beats Tufts) will sit squarely as the #5 seed. Williams still has Bates on Sunday, but given that the match is in Williamstown I don’t see the Ephs getting upset. That said it’s a big match for Josh Quijano to hold his spot in the top-8 in the region, but I digress. The winner of this match not only gets a better NESCAC seed, but should also feel pretty good about their NCAA chances via Pool-C! There is a real possibility that these two teams play again in the NESCAC QFs as the #4/5 matchup, in which case Bowdoin probably only needs the split, but that’s not a given. Plus the winner of the #4/5 match will still have a very solid shot of knocking off the No. 1 seed given how crazy the conference has been this spring.
How Williams can win: The recipe for both teams starts with a doubles lead. Williams is deeper than Bowdoin, and honestly will probably be favored to win (if only slightly at some points) at #’s 3-6. Barr hasn’t been playing singles of late which means #3-6 for Williams has been Indrakanti, Chung, Taylor and Frelinghuysen, all of whom have been playing pretty well of late. That foursome is a combined 16-5 in NESCAC matches so far this year, and 8-4 against Amherst/Midd/Wesleyan. Even if they don’t get a doubles lead, Williams can still win this match, but an early lead combined with riding the depth is the Ephs’ best shot of getting the win.
How Bowdoin can win: Ride their strengths. If Bowdoin can take a doubles lead as they so often do, they are tough to beat. Urken and Jiang will again be favorites, especially Urken if they play indoors. After that, Bowdoin’s most likely shots at a 5th point is probably Patel. I’m not sure what’s going on with Justin Wang and the middle of the lineup. After not playing last weekend, he was back for the Bates match. My guess is the lineup will be full this weekend and that pushes Fortier and Patel back down to 5&6 respectively. Patel at six is going to be hard to beat, but Evan Fortier at #5 would be a tough out as well.
Swing match: ALL OF THE DOUBLES. I know that sounds crazy, but these two teams are strong and weak at the exact same points in doubles, and the singles lineups are VERY different. Both teams have an incredibly strong top team, both teams’ weakest doubles spot is the middle, and both teams have a good but not unbeatable #3 team. It’s kind of insane to say this, but you could actually see a sweep either way depending on the day!
Individual implications: Urken is a lock at this point, but a loss to Kam would definitely hurt his seeding. Kam probably has too far to move at this point, but a win over Urk would be a good start. Like Farrell, Jiang is playing for his NCAA life at this point. Jerry sits at No. 7 in the region, and while a win over Barr/Raghavan isn’t locking up a spot, a loss would likely drop the ITA Finalist out of bid range at the moment. The biggest matchup for both sides in terms of NCAAs is the #1 doubles matchup. Bowdoin is #2 and Williams is #3 in the region (both are behind Wesleyan). The winner should lock up a spot, while the lose will be left trying to avoid an upset at NESCACs.
Prediction: This has all the feels of a 5-4 match. Give me Bowdoin taking the doubles lead, winning at the top two spots, and then Patel over Frelinghuysen in 3 sets for the clinch.