Another April weekend coming, another 36 hour period with absolutely GIGANTIC postseason implications. Forget your egg hunts or your matzah, in April our religion is DIII tennis. We have three top-10 matchups on our hands this weekend, and an intriguing battle between Tufts and MIT that NewRegional will cover in his weekend preview tomorrow. Williams vs Amherst is one of, if not the best rivalry in DIII sports. All you UAA purists with your Emory/Wash U or Chicago rivalries just stop it. All I hear when you talk is the sound that plays when PAC-MAN dies. Bowdoin vs Middlebury is a rematch of TWO of the past three national championship matches, and Amherst vs Wesleyan gives us a rematch of the best back-to-back series we had all of last season with each team getting a 5-4 win (ok the NESCAC QF was 5-3 with one match at 6-6 in the 3rd set breaker!). The ITA didn’t come out with new rankings this week (BUT WE WILL! Check back tomorrow for Power Rankings), so I’m using both their national and regional rankings from last week. In case you haven’t noticed, the NESCAC is insane right now and any of the top five could both win the national championship or miss the tournament all together! Predicting these matches is about as useful as our content calendar these days, but I have to give ½ of you some ammo for next week so let’s do it…
#10 Williams @ #7 Amherst
When: Saturday at 12 p.m.
Weather: Low-mid 60’s and showers. Amherst’s indoors are pretty normal, albeit somewhat fast, but if they get moved indoors it will be an edge for the Mammoths.
Why it matters: This is a big one. Well, they’re all big ones at this point! Given Amherst’s win over Bowdoin last weekend, they are no longer on the bubble and should be safely nestled within Pool-C (if not higher given their bad loss came outside the conference). That said, that can all change in a moment as they have Williams and Wesleyan this weekend. Williams isnt in desperation mode yet, but if they don’t win one of their three big remaining NESCAC matches (Amherst on Saturday, Bowdoin next Saturday, and the first round of NESCACs), they will almost certainly be the odd team out when it comes to Pool-C. The ridiculous thing is that one win in those matches might still not be enough depending on how all the other matches shake out. A win over Herst would go a LONG ways come Selection Monday. Plus, and this might be the most important thing, this is the best/longest standing rivalry within DIII!
How Williams can win: They play stronger doubles, and don’t have any real singles weaknesses when they play their full lineup. I think the Ephs will take a doubles lead in this one, but then it gets tougher. They are probably favored at the bottom three spots, but only slightly and it’s tough given how well the Amherst freshmen have been playing. It will depend on whether we get Austin Barr and Ananth Raghavan in the lineup. Pushing Deepak to #4, Chung to #5, and A-Tay all the way down to #6 makes Williams all the tougher at those three spots. Given that edge and the fact that Kam/Barr/Rag aren’t slouches at their respective spots means than the Ephs have a great chance to upset their rivals on Saturday.
How Amherst can win: They will be favored at #2 doubles, #1 singles, and depending on who misses time for Williams this week they could also be slight favorites at #2-3 singles. That is four spots, not that I’m confident they’ll win at #2 and 3 singles, but then the 5th spot could come from any one of the Mammoth freshmen down at the bottom of the lineup. Yes, Chung/Taylor/Frelinghuysen have been very good so far this year, but so have Turchatta/Foulkes/Ruparel! Williams might be slight favorites at all three spots, but I don’t actually think they’ll win all three.
Swing match(es): Any of the middle of the singles lineup! Barr vs Ma would be a big matchup for both teams, as would Raghavan vs Fung, but both Lil’ Barr and Lil’ Rag have been dealing with nagging injuries and have missed some time. The Ephs are 7 deep so it doesn’t kill the bottom of the lineup, but pushing Raghavan up to 2 or Deepak up to 3 makes it all that much tougher for each guy to win these critical spots.
Individual Implications: Wei will move up after his win over Cuba, but Kam is still missing a signiture win this spring. This provides the opportunity, but might put both outside the top 7 (although within striking distance). Taylor and Frelinghuysen’s comeback win over Wes last weekend was massive for their individual hopes, and they can now likely afford a loss to another NESCAC power. That said, a win here would close to lock up their spot barring a major upset.
Prediction: Williams takes a doubles lead winning at #1 and #3, but Amherst wins at and near the top of the singles lineup and we get yet another 5-4 decision. If outdoors, give me Williams in an upset, if indoors give me Amherst.
#8 Middlebury @ #4 Bowdoin
When: Saturday at 2 p.m.
Weather: Low-mid 50’s and showers. Not sure if Bowdoin will have Maine Pines or play in their fieldhouse, but there’s a decent chance this one moves indoors. Even if Bowdoin isn’t as big as years past, this is still at least a slight edge to the Polar Bears.
Why it matters: Lost in the insanity that is the NESCAC is our NCAA title rematch from both last year and three years ago. Both teams have hoisted the trophy within that time frame, and neither one seems nearly as good as those title teams of yesteryear. However, these teams will not be fighting for a national championship on Saturday, but it’s possible that the loser will be in jeopardy of not even getting to compete for that tile come NCAA time. As of this moment both Midd and Bowdoin are in according to D3AS’ Pool-C views, but as we’ve established, no NESCAC team is safe right now. A win for either team is a giant step closer towards securing that NCAA berth.
How Middlebury can win: Because their singles are nasty? They just overcame doubles deficits against Tufts (where they got swept) and Williams over the past weekend, which is no easy feat. Cuba and Farrell are a crazy top-2 punch, although this will be their toughest matchup of the year! However, Xiao and Eazor, the sophomore squad, came up big in both singles matches, delivering crucial points against the Jumbos and the Ephs. Xiao will be favored against Yang, and Eazor’s improvement is a WELCOME sign for Panther fans as Nate hadn’t been playing up to his level from last year. He will have a tough but winnable matchup against Fortier this weekend too. I don’t think Midd can overcome a doubles sweep like they did against Tufts, or Amherst did against Bowdoin last weekend, but one doubles point gives them a real chance to win this match.
How Bowdoin can win: A doubles lead is absolutely necessary. Unfortunately for the Polar Bears, that wasn’t enough last weekend as Herst came back from 3-0 down to stun Bowdoin. Midd’s doubles have been really mediocre of late, and Bowdoin will certainly be favored at #1 and #3 doubles this weekend, but we know the duo of Cuba/Eazor should be a title contender so that’s still a scary prospect. If Bowdoin takes a doubles lead, Urken will still be favored over Cuba, especially if played indoors, Jiang is the No. 3 player in the region so even matching up with Farrell he can certainly win, Patel and Guo should be a war and I’d expect that one to go three sets, and Eazor/Fortier probably depends on which Eazor shows up this weekend. All in all, lots of winnable matches for the Polar Bears.
Swing match: The top and bottom of the singles lineup. Bowdoin should be favored at #1 and #3 doubles, Midd should be favored at #2 dubs/#3-4 singles. That leaves four possible swing matches. If I were a betting man, I’d take Farrell over Jiang at #2 even with Jerry as the higher ranked player. Before last weekend, I’d have said Urken over Cuba without hesitation, but seeing Cuba beat Sorkin after being down a set and when his team needed him most, I’m worried for other teams that we might be seeing the re-energized #Lube. Patel/Guo is a battle of strengths for both squads, and while Foriter has been playing very well this year I think he’ll need to jump on Eazor early to win that match as Nate appears to be playing the best singles of his season so far. That is all to say, THERE ARE SO MANY SWING MATCHES IN THIS ONE!
Individual Implications: URKEN VS CUBA! JIANG VS FARRELL! URKEN/JIANG VS CUBA/EAZOR! Three different matches all with huge NCAA implications. Urken was 2nd and Cuba was 4th last week, but that was before Cuba beat Sorkin. Both guys should be locks, but a win for either one has them in the conversation to be a top seed in the country (both guys should be). Jiang vs Farrell is a bit trickier. A loss for either shouldn’t drop them out of the top-7, but the loser probably won’t be able to afford another loss through the season at #2 (except in a NESCACs rematch of this matchup). The region is so good that I don’t see either #2 player getting in with a bad loss on his resume. As for dubs, Urken and Jiang should be a lock at this point, but a loss to Midd opens up some indirects and probably more importantly pulls Cuba/Eazor back into the conversation. Yes, they’re top 4 as of now, but they lost to Tufts and Williams last weekend so they shouldn’t be when the regional rankings come out again next week.
Prediction: Bowdoin takes a doubles lead, but if they don’t get a sweep then Midd comes back to win this match 5-4. However if they’re indoors then it might go the other way!
#7 Amherst @ #5 Wesleyan
When: Sunday at 10 a.m.
Weather: Highs near 70 and partly sunny, but will be a bit cooler with a morning start. Either way, should be played outdoors.
Why it matters: This will be Wesleyan’s last big match of the regular season. Unlike the other members of the NESCAC top-5 (A.K.A. the Pool-C Pentagonal of DOOM), they’ve already played four out of five top conference opponents (going 2-2 with wins over Midd & Tufts and losses to Bowdoin & Williams). This is Wesleyan’s last regular season opportunity to make a statement. If they lose this match, they very well could enter NESCACs in a must-win scenario, which would be a shocking turn considering their start to the season. For Amherst, two wins this weekend would lock them into NCAAs, which is pretty amazing given the start to their season as well. Realistically, a split should be considered a fine weekend for the Mammoths given their NESCAC positioning.
How Amherst can win: They are playing their best tennis of the year when it’s starting to matter most, which is more than can be said about the Amherst teams of the past few years. The freshmen at the bottom of the lineup appear calm and confident in big matches (see Bowdoin match), which will be NECESSARY here as Wesleyan might be the deepest team in the conference. Amherst doesn’t need a doubles lead to win this match, but it will be tougher to come back from a deficit against Wes than it was against Bowdoin (yes, even though Bowdoin beat Wes) based on matchups.
How Wesleyan can win: I don’t want to say a doubles lead is necessary for the Cards in this one, because they can win at every singles spot on Sunday, but given how Amherst’s singles has been of late, it’s going to be tough to take four singles matches from them. Luckily, Wes’ doubles has been great this year, especially their top two teams of late. Fleisch and Sweeney appear to be the new #3 team after their DEMOLISHING of Williams last weekend, and Wes has the potential to win at all three doubles spots. A doubles lead and then some combo of three out of the bottom four singles spots is Wes’ best chance of a win, but don’t count out Fink over Wei at the top either.
Swing match: You could pick any of the bottom singles spots, but I’ll go with #6. Foulkes is fresh off a match-clinching win over Justin Patel 7-6 in the 3rd set, while Lieb has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the year in the NE. Both freshmen have played some very solid tennis this year, and honestly both are in the conversation as to who is the best #6 in the country (along with a few other #6’s on title contending teams…funny how that happens). Both guys battle, so I’m almost expecting this one to go three sets, and it might well decide the team match.
Individual Implications: No new individual rankings this week, so Sean Wei down at #14 in the region doesn’t really hold true given the fact that he beat Urken in straight sets last week. Big match for both Wei and Fink as both are top-8 players but theres a chance that the loser of this match is hovering right around the cut-line when the next rankings come out.
Prediction: I like Wes to take a doubles lead and then the match to end up 5-4 with at least three matches going to full 3rd sets. Gimme the Cards 5-4 just to blow things up even further!
