NE Weekends in April: #2

NE April Weekends: 04/13–04/14

Another weekend, another crazy slate of NE matches. Can Tufts get the massive monkey off their back as RegNEC described it in this week’s Power Rankings? Can Middlebury bounce back from a tough weekend against Wesleyan and Emory? Will Bowdoin strengthen its claim atop the NESCAC? Can Amherst or Williams slide the Pool-C needle? So many questions, so little time…

#17 Tufts at #6 Middlebury

When: Saturday at 12 p.m.

Weather: 60’s and cloudy, so should be played outdoors

Why it matters: At this point the only way Tufts is going to make NCAAs is by winning the NESCAC, but they are a much more dangerous team than their W-L record might indicate. For Middlebury, a loss would knock the defending champions out of the Pool-C picture and really put them behind the eight ball given how many other Pool-C contenders have already beaten the Bos. Both teams are looking to rebound and while Midd is favored this would be a very nice bounce-back win for either squad.

How Tufts can win: As with any match, Boris will be favored at the top singles spot and Gorelik has been money at #3. Yes, they have tough matchups against Cuba and Xiao respectively, but both Boris is still favored and Isaac is at least close to a toss up. It seems like Tufts is close to settling on a bottom of the lineup combination of Herman-Grant, Biswas and Moldy in some order, but none of the three guys are pulling in consistent wins. Luckily for the Bos, neither is Midd. Along the same lines, Midd has been surprisingly vulnerable in doubles of late. If Tufts can pull a doubles lead, they absolutely have a shot to win this match.

Why Midd is favored to win: They will still be favored at every doubles spot (though I don’t expect Tufts to be swept again), Cuba is one of the toughest opponents Sorkin will play all year, Farrell should be a heavy favorite over Pentousis, and Adam Guo just keeps doin his thing down at #5, and it wouldn’t SHOCK me to see him playing above Morris at some point soon. A doubles lead, and then winning 2/5/any other spot is the most likely recipe for a Midd win.

Swing match(es): I alluded to it earlier but #3 singles is a position of strength for both teams. Gorelik has won a ton of matches recently, and Xiao just destroyed Adrien Bouchet last weekend. Tufts probably needs this one to pull the upset. But since I already talked about this one I’ll give you one more. Look one spot further down the lineup and you’ll see a struggle point for both teams. Morris had an excellent fall, but hasn’t been winning much of late, and was recently moved from #3 down to #4. As for the Bos, they haven’t won against a top-20 team at #4 singles since Gorelik played there almost a month ago at Pomona-Pitzer. Biswas and Herman-Grant have some narrow losses to solid players, but whoever plays #4 this weekend will be in a big spot to help out his team.

Individual implications: Sorkin is #1 in the region and a lock for NCAAs already so not too worried there. His opponent is #4 in the region, and could come close to locking up his spot with a win over Sorkin. Noah Farrell is ranked 7th in the region, and while a win over Pentousis (ranked #25) wouldn’t bolster his chances all that much, a loss would really hurt them. Same thing goes for the doubles, as Cuba/Eazor are #3 in the region but hanging on by a thread over some hot teams like Williams and Skid. A win over Tufts’ top team of Sorkin/Niemiec (ranked #15) wouldn’t do a ton, but a loss would probably knock Midd out of the top 4 (especially coupled with a loss to Williams on Sunday).

Prediction: Midd takes a doubles lead and wins 5-4 or a close 6-3 as Tufts drops yet another tough/tight match.

#8 Williams at #5 Wesleyan

When: Saturday at 2 p.m.

Weather: 70 degrees but rain in the forecast, so check back as we get closer.

Why it matters: This is a huge match for both teams. D3AS called Wesleyan a lock for NCAAs in his Pool-C article last week. He is a bit more certain than I am at this point, but a win for the Cards on Saturday would lock it up and you can throw away the key. On the other side, there has been a lot of talk in the Blog chat about Williams recently because that’s all one can do about the Ephs at this point. Close losses to good teams without their full lineup are still losses, and there are only so many chances to prove oneself. A win over Wes would shut up the naysayers and certainly put Williams on the safe side of the Pool-C bubble.

How Williams can win: Even if they’re not at full strength, we know the Ephs play some really solid doubles. A doubles lead would be HUGE for either team in this match, but especially for Williams if they don’t have a full lineup for singles. If this match is played outdoors, singles should be an absolute war as there won’t be huge favorites at any spot in the lineup (again, assuming we have a full Eph lineup). Barr should be a slight favorite over Anker, but that’s probably the only singles spot where the Ephs would be favored. That said, it’s close to a toss up on #1/#3/#6. This all changes without a full contingent of Ephs, but here’s hoping that even when they do get back to full strength Frelinghuysen remains in the singles lineup, he’s been money so far, especially in clutch situations.

Why Wesleyan is favored to win: This team just doesn’t have any true weaknesses. Yes, Anker has dropped a decent amount of fast-paced matches at #2, but he’s also beaten Neves and Pentousis in very big matches. Wes’ doubles have been much better than expected, and their singles depth has been exactly as good as expected! Again, they won’t be big favorites at any spot if Williams plays their full lineup, but they should be slight favorites at #1/#4/#5 singles at the very least. We’ve also seen the Cards come out of some VERY tight matches on top, and that sort of thing stays with a team.

Swing match: #1 doubles. Tough to get the swing match out of the way immediately, but both teams are EXTREMELY strong at the top of the doubles lineup, and both teams have been relying on that spot for wins throughout 2019. Roji/Lilienthal are 10-2 on the year with their losses coming against Bowdoin (#1 team in NE) and Wash U (#3 team in Central). Taylor/Frelinghuysen are 7-1 against DIII teams this spring, and their only loss was 8-6 against Emory (#1 team in the AS). This will be the first big regional test for the Ephs duo, but whichever pair wins should be close to a lock for NCAAs barring disaster down the stretch

Individual implications: I just talked about the #1 doubles match, but it features the 2nd and 4th ranked teams in the region, so there are obviously major implications there. In singles, #Fink is No. 6 in the region while Kam is all the way down at No. 15. I think Kam will move up as the rest of the season progresses, as his super breaker losses to Kronenberg and Shanker (No. 4 and No. 2 in the West) and his recent loss to Sorkin (No. 1 in the whole damn country) probably don’t mean much. This would be a good win for either guy.

Prediction: Until I see Williams play a full lineup I can’t pick them here. I think this is a close match all the way through, with a bunch of matches going the distance, but give me Wesleyan 5-4.

#4 Bowdoin at #9 Amherst

When: Sunday at 12 p.m.

Weather: 60ish degrees but rain in the forecast so could be indoors.

Why it matters: Bowdoin isn’t as strong as they’ve been over the past 3-4 years, but somehow the Polar Bears are atop the NESCAC at this point in the season! That said, their hold is tenuous at best, and they have the majority of the NESCAC still to play, including another test against the Mammoths this weekend. Amherst, meanwhile, sits DIRECTLY on the Pool-C bubble. D3AS has the Mammoths in over Williams at this point, but those two teams are the 5th and 6th teams in the Pool-C race no matter how you slice it at this moment. A win for Amherst here would push them above Williams for the time being, while a loss just leaves further uncertainty. For Bowdoin, a win continues to strengthen their NCAA claim and their hold on the top of the conference.  

How Amherst can win: They’re gonna be trouble, I know, but they’re so damn talented. Amherst has the ability to go out and beat anybody on the right day. We saw it happen against CMS, albeit indoors. They are talented at the top with Wei and Ma, they are talented in the middle with Fung and Bessette, they are talented at the bottom with any combo of Foulkes/Turchatta/Ruparel. They always seem to have a couple players who struggle, but they are a nightmare matchup for almost any NESCAC team due to the ceiling at all six spots.

Why Bowdoin is favored to win: They play better doubles, they are even stronger at the top of the singles lineup, and their depth has been getting better as the season wears on. Urken and Jiang will be favored to bring home three points in this one, and that means they only need two more from the other six spots. I like those odds.

Swing match: #3 singles. Oscar Yang vs Kevin Ma/Jayson Fung/Zach Bessette (depending on who plays #2-4 for Herst) will be a huge match. As I said, Bowdoin should be favored at the top two spots, but Amherst will be favored at #4. #5 is another swing match candidate, but I would give a slight edge to Bowdoin at the bottom spot as Fortier has been playing well of late, and really for the whole season. #3 singles is probably a spot Amherst needs to win, but Yang has turned close losses into close wins of late. If he starts churning out wins at #3 singles, it brings Bowdoin up a whole level in terms of title contender.  

Individual implications: Urken and Jiang are all over the regional rankings. No. 1 dubs team, No. 2 and No. 3 singles players, with Urken’s only singles loss to Parodi and Jiang’s only losses in the entire academic calendar year to Katzman (2x) and Sorkin. Surprisingly, Amherst doesn’t have a whole lot going on in terms of individual rankings at this moment. Wei is No. 14 and Ma/Fung are numbers 20/21 respectively. A loss for either Bowdoin player won’t kill them as they’ve amassed so many good wins already this year, but it certainly wouldn’t help. Meanwhile, this is a huge shot for Wei to make a jump closer to the top 7 who are guaranteed a spot at NCAAs.

Prediction: Bowdoin takes a doubles lead and escapes Amherst with a 6-3 win. This changes somewhat if they’re indoors, but Bowdoin over the past few years has been historically good indoors, even on road courts.

#8 Williams at #6 Middlebury

When: Sunday at 2 p.m.

Weather: Low 50’s and rain in the forecast, so could well be indoors.

Why it matters: Huge match. Probably the biggest match of the weekend in terms of Pool-C. I want to leave this preview until after Saturday so we see Midd against Tufts and Williams against Wesleyan, as that should clarify the stakes even further, but no matter what happens on Saturday this matchup is crucial for both teams. If Midd beats Tufts, a win for either team puts them inside of Pool-C, and possibly drops the other below Amherst and on the outside looking in.

How Williams can win: I actually think the Ephs match up rather well with the Panthers, kind of like how Wesleyan matches up well with Midd. Both Williams and Wes play good doubles, and they both appear pretty darn good at the bottom of the lineup. No slouches at the top, but Cuba and Farrell will be favored over Kam/Barr or whomever plays #1 or #2 for the Ephs. A doubles lead, and the bottom of the lineup are Williams’ advantages and they can ride those to an upset.

Why Midd is favored to win: Cuba and Farrell certainly help, but perhaps the biggest help is that we still don’t know just how healthy Williams is. I have no idea if they’ve been plagued by the injury bug of late, if this has to do with some hypothetical suspensions, or if Williamstown has entered some soft of Leftovers situation, but we haven’t seen a full Williams lineup in six matches now. Midd showed just how strong they are at the top with a dismantling of Emory at #1/2/3 last weekend, and given those have been Williams’ weakest spots so far this spring that gives the Panthers a pretty clear edge.

Swing match: #5 singles. You could pick a bunch here. #3 doubles is up in the air, neither squad has been really solid at #6 singles of late, but I’m going with positions of strength in Adam Guo and Peter Frelinghuysen (or Chung/Taylor depending on just how many guys Williams has for this match). I’ve talked a lot about Guo and Frelinghuysen recently, and that should be a pretty stellar matchup.

Individual implications: #1 doubles will feature the No. 3 and No. 4 ranked teams in the region. Cuba and Eazor can beat any team if they’re playing well, but as I mentioned earlier Taylor/Frelinghuysen have been lights out of late. Cuba at No. 4 and Kam at No. 15 is the battle at #1 singles. Same deal for Kam as his matchup with Finkelman on Saturday, big upside without too much downside. Turo probably needs to win one of these matches over the weekend to feel better about his NCAA chances. Barr isn’t ranked as the Williams #2 player, so Farrell is again in a tenuous spot where a loss hurts his chances WAY more than a win would help them, but such is the life of a #2 singles player in the NESCAC.

Prediction: I’m actually having a lot of trouble with this one. If Williams plays their full lineup I think they will win at least one of their matches this weekend. But if not I see them on the wrong end of two tight 5-4 or 6-3 losses.