I HAVE MADE MY RETURN. After taking it easy the past couple of weeks, the Blog Chat has gone into a frenzy telling me to write articles. I’m happy to say that I’ve finally finished my first Pool C update, about a week after D3WestWomen’s finished hers. The women’s team is just crushing my output right now and I must say, that’s both an amazing and a bad thing. I can’t let them just beat me without me putting my stamp on things! So, here is the Pool C article that was promised last week. This article will start a week in which I hopefully get you readers my trademark binge mode. Get ready for the articles, ladies and gentlemen, because analysis and fact-driven reporting is on your way.
Anyways, I think I wrote 4 Pool C Updates last year. I will probably write the same amount this year, unless there is no drama/heavy drama, where I will write more or less. Of course, this blog is built on drama and sports-related gossip, so of course I want the drama. Pool C is literally always a conversation on this blog because of the general unfairness of the system towards DIII Tennis, specifically the “Big 3” Conferences (UAA, NESCAC, SCIAC). The NCAA is all about rules and uniformity, which means they all have to wear suit and tie when we go to work and get watched when they go to the bathroom to make sure they aren’t playing smartphone games on the toilet. Enough of the NCAA though, because we rise above our restrictions and provide great tennis for the DIII community every year no matter what.
If you are wondering how the tournament selection works, remember that I basically mapped it out for you in a previous article 3 years ago. That article is linked below for your viewing pleasure. Feel free to comment in this article if you have questions and I can answer the best I can.
http://www.division3tennis.com/ncaa-selection-work/
PLEASE BE ADVISED – THERE ARE 5 POOL C SPOTS AGAIN THIS YEAR, AND 2 POOL B SPOTS. DON’T ASK ME ABOUT MATH I BLOG FOR A LIVING.
So, who’s in the running to make Pool C this year? Who has the early advantages, and who’s behind the 8 ball (I only recently understood what that reference was). Let’s go to my trusty Pool C chart, which I’ve modified this year to make more readable and give you some better comparisons.
Please note – Case Western’s losses were mistakenly not included in the table above. Case Western has lost to the following teams:
- GAC, Chicago, CMU, Trinity TX, and Kenyon
Where are we right now?
As you can see from the above, we’ve really been blessed with a fun year with a lot of cross conference play. Amherst, Wesleyan, Wash U, and CMU gave us a lot of good play down in Orlando while CMS, Emory, Williams, Midd, and Chicago did battle out in California. Nothing like inter-conference matches to try and make our choices clearer. If you’re looking at the above table, I’d really project the following 5 teams to be in through Pool C right now – Middlebury, Wesleyan, Amherst, Emory, and Wash U. Williams and Brandeis are the next teams out at the moment.
Are there any locks right now?
Quite honestly, I think there are 2 locks as of right now – Wesleyan and Emory/Chicago. Wash U is very close but not fully there yet. The reason for Wesleyan being a lock is their surplus of Pool C wins – as you can see from above they’ve got 6 Top 20 wins and 3 with direct competitors in Pool C. The quality of those wins is fantastic too, with wins over Midd, Wash U, and CMU. They’ve bolstered their wins with out of conference wins against Kenyon and Trinity TX, both top 15 teams. With only Williams, Amherst, and the NESCAC to go, Wesleyan is a virtual lock.
In regards to Emory, they basically booked their ticket to NCAAs this weekend with a massive win against Middlebury. With wins already against Williams, PP, and TTX, I don’t see anyone from the NESCAC or UAA truly passing the Eagles. They will undoubtedly get a couple of wins at the UAA Tournament as well. Emory can lock it in.
Who’s feeling good?
As I mentioned earlier, Wash U is probably feeling pretty good right now, as well as Middlebury. Both teams have wins over key players in the opposing conference (Wash U over Amherst, Midd over Brandeis) and will have to really be surprised to get knocked out. While there’s plenty of matches left to play, the history of these teams along with their wins already most likely get them in.
W2W4
The most interesting part of this argument is that Amherst is the last Pool C team from my projections. Despite key losses to Wash U and Case Western (tough one), Amherst has an incredible win against CMS on their home courts that really buoys their candidacy. However, if they don’t pull off any more big wins in the NESCAC, they will really be testing the waters. Williams doesn’t have any wins to note, but they have a future schedule that is decked out due to the NESCAC rules. Williams is one or two NESCAC wins from passing Amherst or really just a H2H win.
How about the UAA contenders? Well, none of them have a great resume as of right now. Brandeis and CMU have no wins in the top 10. Case Western beat Amherst, but has negated that win with losses to both Kenyon and Trinity TX. They’ve also split their matches with CMU. Right now, none of these teams have a great argument to make it into the tournament to be in Pool C. All 3 will most likely need a big win against Chicago or Emory in the UAA Championship to really be considered candidates for overtaking Amherst. Or, they can hope for Amherst and Williams to lose to a Tufts or something.
Key Matches
Honestly, I won’t need to map this out for you. Any time Pool C contenders get together, it’s a big match for both teams. The UAA Championship seeding will be super important. For Brandeis/CMU/Case Western, it might even behoove one of those teams to get the #6 seed in order to try and get more wins on their schedule. Wins against #3 Wash U and then #2 Emory would be pretty big resume boosters. For the NESCAC, well their whole schedule is just #PoolCLyfe, so we can go ahead and say all their matches are important.
Final Thoughts?
Want to see more stats on the table? Got your thoughts on Pool C? Just let me know in the comments. As AVZ mentioned in the group chat, there are a TON of teams that could probably win the tournament this year on any given three days. Just look at the fact that CMS almost lost to MIT but has beaten everyone else. Amherst beat CMS and they are the last team in by my projections. Williams hasn’t even been able to prove they belong yet. 5-4 and 6-3 matches are everyday events for the 2019 DIII Tennis season. The drama is real and we’ve hired Chris Harrison to host the blog because of it. Hope you enjoyed this Pool C breakdown. I’ll have two more articles out this week, with one of them being the FIRST BRACKETOLOGY OF THE SEASON. Follow your men’s and women’s writers if you know what’s good for you. Watch Game of Thrones this weekend and RIP Nipsey. ASouth, OUT.
Well, with Williams winning today, does the blog thing that it is now necessary that if Case or Brandeis want a Pool C bid, they need to beat one of the top 3 seeds in the UAA tournament? Case most likely will play Brandeis first round, but wouldn’t either of them need two wins at UAAs now to truly deserve a Pool C bid? Curious what the blog thinks on this now! @d3northeast and @d3atlanticsouth
Thanks for your comment! In fact, I already thought it was necessary that both Case and Brandeis needed to beat one of the top 3 seeds in the UAA Tournament to make it in. Right now, Williams is probably ahead of Middlebury who is ahead of both Brandeis and Case. Case (the presumed #6 seed) will have to beat Wash U AND Emory, most likely. Brandeis will have to beat CMU and either Chicago/Emory/Wash U to make it, I believe. Brandeis still does have Bowdoin (tomorrow I believe) so let’s wait until that match finishes before we draw any conclusions.
Another Pool C Update will be posted after this weekend’s matches as well.
ASouth
Brandeis already lost to Bowdoin 6-3. I guess it basically pays to be in a much tougher region, if you can’t upset any of the top teams! Also, midd does not look very good for whatever reason this year (they just look so shaky and beatable)
Definitely the downside to playing a very easy schedule for Brandeis (only CMS, Midd, and Bowdoin as tough matches) and for CMU having that slow start to the season. Definitely hurts both of them as that first round win for either team does not necessarily help them for Pool C right? For Case, Deis, and CMU they probably need two straight wins at UAA’s for that Pool C bid is what it seems like to me.
If a team that was favored to win a particular match actually loses because it is missing players due to injury, does that affect the thinking of the selection committee? For example, last weekend Williams barely beat Tufts (5-4) while missing several players due to injury. If Williams had lost, but then the players returned by the end of the season, would that loss still have “counted” for purposes of Pool C?
Good to see ya D3Fan!
I can’t particularly say that I know exactly what goes on in the minds of the NCAA committee, however that loss is still counted as a loss for sure. Presumably, if those Williams players returned by the end of the season, the hope would be that they got some big wins at the end of said season. With late season play being one of the main categories in the decision, one could say that the loss still counts but would be discounted if Williams had strong results later on.
The CMS schedule that was put together is incredible. Hats off to Coach Settles for putting together maybe the toughest schedule in the country! 3 top 5 wins, 5 top 10 wins and 10 top 20 wins and we still have a couple weeks to go! I feel as if scheduling is an underrated part of the coaching job and if you want to be the best, you got to beat the best, every team should be pushing their schedule.
Great info and great read. An obvious Judges superfan, not loving the analysis and hope folks that ultimately make the decision disagree. Yet, sports is about great stories (i.e. Virginia)…this year’s Judges story isn’t finished, with UAA’s in couple weeks. I’ll be there wearing blue! No matter what, I love the trajectory of this team. #rolldeis.