April Weekends in the NE: A Dream of Zihuatanejo

APRIL WEEKENDS IN THE NE: A Dream of Zihuatanejo Part I

For better or for worse, it is that time of year again. The time of year when I get busy living,  writing the same article but with different matchups every week for an entire month, or get busy dying (waiting on the Power Rankings). Am I insane? Well now let me see. You know, I don’t really have any idea what that means. What was Einstein’s definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Well here I am, doing the same thing over and over for five years now, and I wouldn’t have it any other way. From now until the end of April there are absolutely massive NE matches that require previews, and we don’t start out slow. This weekend alone we have four big matches (I’m saving the two Sunday matches for another preview), though the one with the farthest reaching implications is shockingly Brandeis at Bowdoin! So maybe things don’t always end the same after all! Remember readers, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and good things never die. I hope we get a few more burning barns this weekend. I hope this whole month of tennis is as exciting as it always is. I hope the weather finally warms up and we’re not playing indoors until May. I hope I’m not doomed to repeat these preview articles until the end of time. I hope…

#6 Wesleyan @ #3 Middlebury

When: Saturday, April 6th at 12:00 p.m.

Weather: 50’s and partly sunny: should be outside if it warms up early enough because as of Friday at 10:00 p.m. it’s snowing…

Why it matters: NESCAC supremacy! Granted, Wes is coming off a loss to Bowdoin, but a win over Midd would put the Cards right back in the race for the top of the conference. On the other side, Midd is coming off a bad beat at CMS, so both teams are looking to right the ship. However, there is more than NESCAC conference seeding at stake, as both of these teams are (at this point in the season) jockeying for NCAA positioning as well. Given the amount of good (but not unbeatable) teams this year, I’m not sure exactly how important NCAA seeding will be at this point, but obviously it’s always better to get an easier hypothetical quarterfinal match if possible.

How Wesleyan can win: The Cards have a real chance at all three doubles spots. They are very strong at the top (although Midd is too), but they’ve also won some big matches at the other two spots. In singles, we know Fink can outgrind anybody, even Lubo, Farrell hasn’t been playing at his highest level lately, and Wes’ depth is just as good as any team in the NESCAC, or country for that matter. Even the freshmen have been playing in and more importantly winning big matches. That’s what makes the Cards so dangerous, they can beat you at any one of the nine spots.

Why Middlebury is favored: Even after the beating they took from CMS the other day, I still think the Panthers are as good as any team in the country on the right day. Just like Wes, they are strong top to bottom, and that’s why this matchup has such a range of possibilities. They do play strong doubles, and should be favored at the lower doubles spots. Cuba and Farrell are still going to be favored over Fink and Anker, and Xiao/Guo/Eazor are certainly not underdogs even against a strong bottom half like Lilienthal/Carter/Lieb.

SWING MATCH: There are a bunch, and it’s tough to choose just one. The top doubles spot is the strongest for both teams. #5 singles should be a war between Adam Guo, who was Midd’s March MVP, and Wesleyan’s emotional leader Princeton Carter. But I think the most interesting matchup is between Adrian Roji and Stanley Morris at #3 singles. To be frank, it’s probably the weakest spot in each team’s singles lineup, though neither player is anything close to a pushover. Whoever wins this toss-up match will be giving his team a HUGE boost.

Prediction: Middlebury takes a lead after doubles, and rides the lead to a tight 6-3 win.

#10 Brandeis @ #5 Bowdoin

When: Saturday, April 6th at 1:00 p.m.

Weather: 50 and mostly sunny. It’s supposed to snow all night and into the morning so there’s a good chance this one gets moved indoors or to Maine Pines.

Why it matters: Oh it matters. It matters big time. This is Brandeis’ biggest remaining match of the regular season, and honestly it’s just as big as their conference tournament matches because win is MASSIVE for both the Judges and the entire UAA in terms of Pool-C bids. Brandeis doesn’t have any bad losses, but their best win is still over Pomona-Pitzer, which is a good win, but not nearly the caliber of the serious candidates applying for Pool-C entry. A win for Bowdoin also solidifies their candidacy. Now, Bowdoin has already beaten Wesleyan, albeit in a close match, but it’s not totally unrealistic for both of those teams, along with Midd, Williams and even Amherst to be dreaming of winning the conference and a Pool-A bid. That said, the most likely way in is through Pool-C, and a loss to Deis would severely hurt those chances.

How Brandeis can win: Brandeis’ greatest strength is its depth, and Bowdoin’s is…not. Brandeis should legitimately be favored at the middle of the singles lineup, and the bottom is no worse than a coin flip. If Deis takes three of the bottom four spots as they certainly can, that puts Bowdoin in a tough situation, though one they could be fine with, especially if this match is played on 3-4 courts indoors. If Deis rides their strong doubles to a lead, I think they actually could be favored to win the match. Wow, even typing that I did a double take. Look how far we’ve come!

Why Bowdoin is favored: They’re still Bowdoin. Their top doubles team is as good as any in the country, the top of their singles lineup is the same way. Urken is almost good for two points every match. Jiang has been playing well, but they keys will be the young guns like Oscar Yang and Evan Fortier. Both guys have come on strong recently, and Fortier has quietly had a very nice season down at the anchor spot for the Polar Bears.

SWING MATCH: #3 doubles. A decently strong spot for both teams although neither’s strongest pair. Both teams should feel pretty good with a doubles lead, although obviously it’s more important for Brandeis as Bowdoin is favored at the top of the singles lineup. Another match to watch would be #5 singles. Jeff Chen has been a quiet force for the Judges so far this year, and is probably a slight favorite over Justin Patel, but the Bowdoin junior plays close sets and close matches and my money is on that match going the distance if played outdoors. Chen has also been playing some #4 recently, so there’s a chance we see Nikhil Das at #5 for the Judges which would make this match a true toss up.

NewRegional CELEB SHOTl: This match is a huge opportunity for Brandeis. The Judges are in an interesting position right now because although they have no wins that scream “TITLE CONTENDER”, they also have no bad losses that eliminate them from postseason play. Given the results that other Pool C teams have had so far: CMU splitting with Case and losing to Amherst, Wesleyan and Wash U,  the fact that Williams hasn’t had any meaningful results, and that Amherst can beat CMS but lose to Case, it’s been huge that Brandeis has been able to avoid a bad loss. A win over Bowdoin tomorrow would put Brandeis put Brandeis on the right side of the Pool C bubble, and they’d have to be feeling good about their NCAA chances. While a loss wouldn’t eliminate the Judges, it would put a ton of pressure on the team heading into both the MIT match and UAAs. The key to the match for Brandeis (as always)  is doubles. Bowdoin split their singles matches 3-3 with MIT today, and I think Brandeis plays stronger single, sp if Brandeis is able to take a 2-1 after doubles, I think they will win this match. #1 doubles is going to be the swing match here. I’m going to pencil in a win for Tzeng and Chen at #2 doubles, and #3 has been Brandeis’ weakest doubles spot this year. At #1 for Brandeis, Coramutla and Aizenberg have had great wins over strong #1 teams from Colby, Tufts and Caltech. But, on the other side, at #1 for Bowdoin, (I believe) Urken and Jiang haven’t lost this spring, and are a beast of a team that can hit the ball through anyone. As much as I’d love to see Brandeis win this match, I think Bowdoin takes wins at #1 and #3 doubles, and takes #1, #2 and #5 singles for a tough 5-4 win.

NE Prediction: Bowdoin takes a doubles lead, and wins at 1/2/6 singles for the clinch, and gets either #3 or #5 in a super breaker for a 6-3 win.