CMS does New England

The Stags go east…and indoors?

The blog group chat was set aflame today as when we saw the following tweet: 

CMS 3 MIT 2

1. Parodi 0-6, 3-6
2. Katzman 6-2, 6-3
3. Gordy 4-6, 4-3
4. Liu 3-6,
5. Park 1-0
6. Jacobs warming up

— CMS Tennis (@CMStennis) March 19, 2019

Stags up 2-1 after doubles was hardly surprising, but the reply tweet got us thinking, just how difficult is the transition from outdoors to indoors? We always talk about all these NE teams going out to California or down to Florida and having to play their first outdoor tennis in about five months, but we almost never talk about the reverse. CMS opted not to play at Indoors this year, so this is very likely the Stags’ first important indoor tennis since that tournament last February. Unlike last February, Matthew Jacobs came up HUGE for the Stags today, battling back from a set down to win in three sets at #6 singles and clinch the comeback for CMS. The bloggers were pretty split as to which was harder, transitioning from indoors to outdoors or outside to inside, but hopefully we won’t have to discuss it much tomorrow, as the weather in Middletown, Connecticut is supposed to be low 50’s and sunny. That being said, the match starts at 10 a.m. when it will still be at least a bit chilly out so I’ll be interested to see how the decision process comes to pass. CMS escaped the MIT bubble, but it will be tougher against stronger teams, of which the Stags get two over the next three days. Which CMS team will we see at Wesleyan tomorrow and at Amherst on Friday (A.K.A. the Vineyard Vines gauntlet), the team who crushed Bowdoin or the team that barely snuck by MIT? DIIIWest doesn’t do indoor tennis, so you’re stuck with me. BRING ON THE BLURBS!

Spring Break New England – Swampscott, MA #Teleios pic.twitter.com/Vkf49mAzo1

— CMS Tennis (@CMStennis) March 17, 2019

#6 CMS (Blog Power Ranking #2) @ #8 Wesleyan (Blog Power Ranking #5)

When: Wednesday at 10 a.m.

Why the match is important: While it might be crazy to believe, this match probably has more to do with NCAA seeding than anything else at this point. Wesleyan tore through their spring break and rewarded Coach Fried for his brutal opening schedule with huge Pool-C wins over Wash U and CMU and nice resume boosting wins over Trinity Tx and Kenyon. Barring a NESCAC collapse, those wins should give Wesleyan plenty of breathing room, meaning they don’t need to beat CMS to drastically improve their bubble chances. That said, any chance to prove yourself against a fellow top-10 team is real opportunity. We just saw what CMS did to Bowdoin in Stag Hen finals last weekend, but this match will be played on Wesleyan’s home courts, and possibly even indoors, which would make a substantial difference, as we saw today against MIT.

Why CMS is favored: Their depth is as good as anybody’s in the country, if not better. They are strong at the top too. Parodi is coming off a win over Urken which we all know is as good as any out there. Yes, he got smoked today, but I expect him to become accustomed to the indoor courts at some point through the week. Wesleyan played solid doubles in Florida, but their lower teams don’t appear to be world beaters, and the Stags should at least be favored at #2 doubles, along with basically #2-6 singles (Parodi is also probably favored at #1, but Fink played some really good grinding tennis in Florida as the week progressed).

Why Wesleyan can win: Because they’ve shown the grittiness of a much older team already. All of their wins, yes even the 7-2 win over Trinity Tx, were not easy wins with plenty of close matches. Given that they won’t be in Florida anymore, I don’t believe Wes will have the chance to play superbreakers to clinch the match either, which just means more time on the courts, possibly the indoor courts. Wes beat Wash U 6-3, and the Bears went 5-4 with the ITA’s No. 1 team in the country (Chicago) at the semifinals of Indoors. Yes, they Cards are underdogs here, but they should absolutely believe that they can win this match, as they’ve already proven they belong at the big-boy table in 2019.

CMS must win at ___ to win the match: Any doubles spot. It’s tough to pick this when you can easily win five different singles spots every time, but the easiest path I see to Wesleyan winning this match is a doubles sweep (if the match is played outdoors). CMS’ strongest doubles spot is #2 doubles. Katzman and Liu have been filthy good to start the year, just working their way through whomever was on the other side of the net. Carter and Mooraj have been solid since their pairing, including a win over Wash U, but this would be by far their best win of the season. So #2 doubles is probably the pick, but realistically so long as the Stags don’t go down 3-0 they should be in reasonably good shape if outside.

Wes must win at ___ to win the match: #1 doubles. Roji and Lilienthal have come up clutch so far this year, winning a bunch of close matches and earning their spot at the top of the lineup. Gordy and Parodi are a veteran team but they are streaky even within matches. Both teams are relatively strong at this spot, but neither have established themselves as a top #1 team just yet this spring. Seeing as I think CMS has the edge in singles, and this is the biggest toss up doubles match, it’s one that I think Wesleyan needs to win.

Swing match: #5 singles Daniel Park vs Princeton Carter. DIIIWest said it best when he stated, “Park at 5 is just ridiculous.” Luckily for the Cards, their emotional leader and ace in the hole is also playing #5 singles. Prince has been clutch every time he’s been called upon so far this spring, and even some in previous seasons as well. Until Park loses he should still be favored, but if there were any Cardinal I’d bet my life on in a big match, it would very likely be Carter.

Final score prediction: CMS def Wesleyan 6-3 (outdoors), Wesleyan def CMS 5-4 (indoors)

#6 CMS (Blog Power Ranking #2) @ #7 Amherst (Blog Power Ranking #13)

When: Friday at 3 p.m.

Why the match is important: Unlike the above match, this one features a more desperate host in Amherst. Losing to Wash U dropped the Mammoths out of the current Pool-C picture, but losing to Case Western really put Amherst behind the 8-ball. A win over the Stags would vault them squarely back onto the bubble and make their eventual goal of making and doing damage at the NCAA tournament that much more realistic. For CMS, it’s another chance to flex on a NESCAC team, this time on the road. The Stags return home from New England and take on Williams at the beginning of next week. If CMS goes 3-0 against Wes, Amherst and Williams, they will have secured themselves no worse than a top-5 seed at NCAAs barring total disaster. If they win all three matches convincingly, I think they have to be considered the overall NCAA favorite, even with Midd’s studly top two.

Why CMS is favored: Welp…how does, because they should be favored at every singles spot, grab ya? The top of Amherst’s lineup has not been nearly as studly as we thought they could be to start the year. Wei has been solid, but not a world beater, and Ma/Bessette have both already been shuffled around in the lineup. Parodi seems to have found his game, Katzman is likely the best #2 in the country, and the depth of the Stags looks like it could be better than hever (which is scary because it was damn good before).

Why Amherst can win: Because even though they haven’t fully shown it yet in 2019, the top of this singles lineup has the potential to be the best in the business. Wei, Ma, Bessette, Fung is, on paper, a nasty top four. In addition, the Mammoths actually kind of sort of maybe matchup well with the Stags? They don’t play amazing doubles, and neither does CMS, which means we could easily see 8-1 Stags or a 5-4 match depending on how doubles goes. Oh yeah, and they actually get to play CMS at home instead of in Cali. The forecast for Friday in Amherst is mid 40’s with scattered showers, so there’s a very good chance this one gets moved indoors, which would obviously favor the Mammoths, especially after what we saw today.

CMS must win at ___ to win the match: #2 singles. Katzman has been one of the best players in the country, and I’m not sure how much longer Coach Settles can justify keeping him behind Parodi (more on that in a second). Ma should be playing #2 for the Mammoths, which is not necessarily a point of weakness, but not the position of strength we thought it might be. If Katzman loses, the Stags are in trouble.

AMH must win at ___ to win the match: #1 singles. Look, Sean Wei is super talented, and last season was probably the best freshman in the country, but this is less about Sean Wei and more about Niko Parodi. Parodi has been one of the best five players in the country during each of his first two years at CMS, but this year something has been different. He got smoked today by Tyler Barr and has taken losses to Matt Miles (UMW) and JT Wynne (Skid) so far this spring. In order for Amherst to pull off this upset, they will need this trend to continue and Wei to take down the top Stag.

Swing match: #3 doubles. Probably the weakest doubles team for both squads, neither of whom have looked very sturdy overall so far on the doubles sides of things. It will depend on whether this match is inside our outside, but if it’s outside this is probably another match Amherst needs to win.  

Final score prediction: CMS def Amherst 7-2 (outdoors), CMS def Amherst 5-4 (indoors).