Wesleyan Spring Break Precap

#9 Wesleyan spring break precap

I’m taking a page out of D3AS’ playbook here as I have three major spring breaks to cover this week. Wesleyan, Amherst and Bowdoin have all taken a trip to warmer weather, and all three teams are playing a crazy amount of matches in a short amount of time. Over the next 48 hours I’ll bring you a precap for each of these three teams, all of whom have something to prove while outside of New England. First up, take a swig of Kool-Aid, and get ready for some Cards.

What we know so far

Lineup:

#1D: Roji/Lilienthal

#2D: Carter/Fleischman

#3D: Anker/Sweeney

#1 Andrew Finkelman

#2 Peter Anker

#3 Adrian Roji

#4 Noah Lilienthal

#5 Princeton Carter

#6 Zach Lieb

Results

#9 Wesleyan def. #13 Kenyon 5-3. What a way to start the season! This match meant more to the Cards than it did to the Lords in the long term, but both teams gave everything to start their respective weeks in Florida. Wes came out and took a 2-1 doubles lead behind their top teams. Originally I was a little put off by the decision to separate Lilienthal and Carter, but…

I guess that’s why you split Carter and Lilienthal. Shockingly, Coach Fried knows more about his team than I do https://t.co/BEMxV1ihkF

— D3 Northeast (@D3Northeast) March 10, 2019

Singles looked like Wes might pull away early, as two freshmen put up quick points for the Cards at #4 and #6 singles, but Kenyon was up for the challenge, forcing a split at 2, and taking #3 in straight sets. Diehl won the 3rd set for Kenyon to continue his unbeaten streak and bring the Lords within one, but just after Finkelman forced a 3rd set, Carter clinched over a cramping opponent giving Wes the 5-3 victory.

Takeaways

• Match played to decision. Something small but of consequence was the decision not to finish the #1 singles match. The match ended 5-3, with #Fink leading 2-0 in the 3rd set. While this match might have some sort of wild card implications for individuals in a couple months, both coaches must have agreed to stop once the match was clinched in order to save their respective squads. I’ve talked a lot about Wesleyan’s brutal week (see more below), but Kenyon also has a crazy few days ahead, including an 8 a.m. match tomorrow against a top-10 squad in Amherst.

• Doubles off to a good start. I touched on this above, but Wes lost four doubles starters to graduation, so their doubles was a big question mark heading into the spring. Always nice to see a 2-1 lead, and the combo of Roji/Lilienthal seemed to ball out at #1. Trinity always plays solid doubles, so let’s see if today was a fluke or the start of a trend. The Cards will need to play good dubs all week if they are to leave Florida feeling successful.

• No easy outs in this singles lineup. 3-setter at #1 singles, 3-setter at #2 singles, tight sets at #3 singles, easy win at #4 singles, 3-setter at #5 singles, and an easy win at #6 singles. Going into this matchup I was most interested to see how the Cards fared at the top of the lineup, as that’s Kenyon’s strength. Although Kenyon won the top three singles spots 2-0, they were a battle. The bottom of the lineup did what i expected them to do, going 3-0. After one match, it doesn’t look like there is a truly weak spot in the Wes singles lineup, even if there may not be a lock either.

What’s still to come

Monday #9 Wesleyan vs #17 Trinity Tx (11:30 a.m.)

Why it matters: Every match matters when you’re directly on the Pool-C bubble. While this match is the least important of the first four they play this week, a loss to Trin could invalidate a lot of what the Cards do this week as Trinity also plays Kenyon, Case, GAC and PP later this year. A loss to the Tigers could give Coach Fried some serious indirect headaches. As for Trinity, something tells me the Tigers are aching to get back into the top-10, and this could be their best shot all year.

Why Wes should win: While we haven’t seen enough from Trin yet to get a full diagnosis, they do not appear to be a top-10 caliber team (the verdict is still out on Wes). Then again, as they did not qualify for Indoors, that is just based mainly off one match (where Trin was clobbered by Emory). Trinity has the experience edge here, but I like Wes pretty much throughout the singles lineup, and the Tigers have not been the doubles stalwarts over the past 18 months that they gained a reputation for being over the past 5-10 years.

Key to the match: Doubles. If Wesleyan can take a doubles lead over the Tigers then this one is over. If the Tigers can take a lead, we’ll see just how fit the Cards are, as they’ll have to grind out another victory against a gritty opponent in fewer than 24 hours. As the Cards saw today, fitness can totally swing a match and that would be a tough way to kiss their Pool-C hopes goodbye.

Swing match: #1 doubles. This is a match Trinity probably needs to win. Yes, Roji/Lilienthal looked awfully good today, but Pitts/Lambeth have been playing together for a much longer time and are a damn solid team. If Wesleyan wins this match, they should be able to take a lead after doubles and coast to a win.

Final score prediction: I know that Wes should be tired, but I also have some confidence that the boys have been doing their off-season conditioning and can take care of business on short rest. Wesleyan def. Trinity 7-2.

Tuesday: #9 Wesleyan vs #8 Wash U (10:30 a.m.)

Why it matters: How does, a win and you’re in the Pool-C drivers seat, grab ya? Wash U was very impressive at Indoors, taking the match of the year out of CMU’s grasp, pushing Chicago in the semis, and then walking all over PP in the 3rd place match. Wash U looked good today blanking Millsaps, and has to deal with CMU again on Monday before they can think about the Cards. Both teams will be playing their 3rd match in three days so fresh legs be damned here. Whoever gets this win should be able to leave Florida feeling very good about what they’ve done, regardless of how their match goes against CMU. The loser will need to have beaten CMU to feel almost as good.

Why Wes should win: To be blunt, I don’t think they should win. BUT, they can win! This will be a GREAT test for Wes’ new doubles teams, as the Bears year in and year out play some excellent doubles. After that, it’s a battle to see whether the weaker part of either lineup can dent the strength of the other. Hillis and Neves give Wash U an edge over almost any team in the country, but especially against Wes. Meanwhile, the bottom of the Bears’ lineup has given them trouble so far this year, and Lilienthal, Carter and Lieb looked pretty tough today for the Cards. Wes can win this match by taking a doubles lead, winning at least two of the bottom three singles spots, and then scraping one more point out of the rest of the team.

Key to the match: Freshmen. Komis and McClelland for Wash U play doubles and the latter also is playing #5 singles these days. Anker, Lilienthal and Lieb are the even singles spots for Wes, and the first two are in the doubles lineup as of posting. Whichever team’s diaper dandies have a better day will likely win this match.

Swing match: #1 singles. Yes, Hillis has been a world beater so far this season, but I loved the fight I saw from #Fink today. He lost the first set, was down in the second, and came back to force a third and energize everybody else who was left out there. Everybody else turned out to just be Princeton Carter, but that was enough. Fink was a top-10 player in the region as a freshman, and if he’s made even a small leap he’ll be a tough out for every single opponent in 2019. Two really good players duking it out at the top spot with so much on the line, and the winner putting his team in a great position to win the match and stay on the right side of the Pool-C bubble.

Final score prediction: Until I see more from the Cards, I think it’s tough to believe they’ll pull off the upset, given the Bears should be favorites at #1/3 doubles, #1/2/3 singles, with tossups at #2 doubles and #4 singles. Wash U def. Wesleyan 6-3.

Wednesday: #9 Wesleyan vs #15 CMU (7:00 p.m.)

Why it matters: Honestly, this is the biggest match of the week for both teams. Both should be beyond exhausted at that point as it will be CMU’s 4th top-15 opponent in five days and Wes’ 4th top-17 opponent in four days. After CMU’s Indoors struggles they put themselves behind the 8-ball. After their massive 5-4 win over Case on Saturday, they are now peeking out from behind that obstacle. A loss to Wes would be just about game over for the Tartans (barring a win over Amherst and/or Wash U, which are much tougher on paper). On the flipside, a loss to CMU would mean that Wes also takes an indirect to Wash U (somewhat meaningless considering the Cards will have just played the Bears), and more importantly to Case. Case is the indirect nightmare, because a loss to the Spartans leads to a loss to GAC which leads to a loss to PP which leads to a loss to Brandeis. As Wes doesn’t play Case, PP or Brandeis this year, a loss would make it so they’d need to finish top-4 in the NESCAC and beat the 5th place team yet again at NESCACs to even re-enter the Pool-C argument.

Why Wes should win: Again, should is a tough word here, but I do think that Wes is the better of these two teams. CMU’s usual studs have let them down multiple times so far this year, and we’ll have a couple interesting battles of strength in the middle of the singles lineup. It’s too early to know much about Wes (he says after writing nearly 2,000 words), but we do know that CMU hasn’t shown themselves to be unbeatable at any spot. Wes wins this match with a doubles lead and then winning any three of the six singles spots. That may sound unbearably obvious, but I do think that the Cards can win at any of the six spots.

Key to the match: The middle of the singles lineup. This is my cheating way of picking more than one swing match. All three of these spots are winnable for either team, so whomever gets two of these three spots should go onto win the match. I can’t wait to watch this one!

Swing match: Tough to choose between #3/#4/#5 singles, but I’m going to go with #3. We saw Roji was the only Card to lose in straight sets today, and we’ve seen Boppana struggle when the going gets tough multiple times so far this young season. Before this year I would have said this was a big advantage for CMU, but until we see Ray win a big match I will have my doubts.  

Final score prediction: Another nail biter through and through. Wesleyan def. CMU 5-4.