If you were new to DIII tennis and you took a look at the picture below, you might think this article was about to look at a world-class fencing team. While Cole Sutton’s mustache might be considered an assault (little fencing humor there), they are actually your defending national champions! This is my final season preview of the year, and it comes just in time as Midd begins their title defense in less than 24 hours when they travel to Skidmore. The Panthers may appear weaker than they have been in the past few years, but we know just how much damage the top two of Cuba and Farrell can cause. En-garde!
LOCATION: Middlebury, Vermont
COACH: Bob Hansen (8th season at Midd, 38th season overall, and a living legend)
ASSISTANT COACH: Andrew Thomson (2nd year, and pretty much another DIII legend at this point)
TWITTER HANDLE: @MiddMTennis
ITA NATIONAL RANKING: 2nd
ITA REGIONAL RANKING: 1st
BLOG POWER RANKING: 1st
2017-2018 FINISH:
TWEET LENGTH REVIEW OF THE FALL: Pretty much what we expected. Cuba & Farrell are good at tennis. Stanley Morris was an unexpected pleasure. However, the 2019 lineup has more uncertainty than the past few years…
STOCK WATCH: HOLD. Remember this is a stock watch for 2019, so you don’t earn any increase for winning last year’s title. The top of the lineup will be filthy, but there is a lot of work left to be done if the champs are hoping to repeat
KEY ADDITIONS: David Vilys (4-star from Florida), Stanley Morris (3-star from California), Zach Hilty (2-star from California).
KEY DEPARTURES: William de Quant (#3 singles/#2 doubles), Kyle Schlanger (#4 singles/#1 doubles), Timo van der Geest (#5-7 singles/#3 doubles).
BEST CASE SCENARIO:
WORST CASE SCENARIO: The bottom of the lineup turns into a revolving door, Cuba or Farrell gets a nagging injury, Bowdoin, Amherst and Williams/Wesleyan all beat the Panthers forcing them into the 4/5 NESCAC QF match where they will be playing for their tournament lives, and they drop a 5-4 heartbreaker causing the defending champs to miss the tournament entirely.
BOLD PREDICTION: Lubo Cuba will not win any national title this year for the first time as a Panther. He won the singles and doubles as a sophomore after transferring into DIII two years ago, and won both the team and doubles title last year. I don’t know who he’ll pair with this year (Martin? Eazor?), but it will be the most untested of his doubles partners by far. That, and the parity at the very top of DIII this year is quite something. Let me just rattle a few names off the top of my head: Sorkin, Jemison/Cassone, Parodi/Katzman, Hillis/Neves, Levine/Downing, Urken/Jiang, Kerrigan/Yuan, Wei/Ma, Barr/Kam, Whaling, Vithoontien, Kronenberg, Shanker, Altmeyer, and even Lubo’s teammate in Noah Farrell could all end the year as the national champions, as could a number of others (sorry to those I’m forgetting), and no blogger would be totally shocked. It’s very tough to play the individuals draw after advancing far in the team draw, so what Cuba has done so far is both unusual and impressive, but this is the year it ends.
NOT-SO-BOLD PREDICTION: Midd will win the NESCAC. Yes, the bottom of their lineup is iffy right now, and yes, I don’t know what happens to their doubles teams, but given Bowdoin, Williams, and Wes were also hit quite hard by graduations, Midd is definitely the team to beat. I have a lot of love for Amherst this year, and think they could very likely finish 2nd, but calling them the odds-on favorite to win the conference without seeing them play a match is foolish.
3 RANDOM THOUGHTS
- New-look doubles. The Panthers have been one of the more solid doubles teams in the country over the past decade, but after graduating three really good doubles players last year this year could be a struggle, at least at first. Obviously I have complete faith in Coach Hansen’s doubles tutelage, but as of this moment I really don’t know who is going to play at the bottom of the doubles lineup. Cuba will play 1, and my guess is Farrell and Martin, who have solid chemistry, will stay at two to give Midd a good chance at both those spots. Cuba and Eazor is the most likely #1 team, but that leaves a lot of questions for #3 dubs. Xiao and Samets won the B flight at Tufts/Brandeis, while Brach/Vilys were the third team at ITAs. You have an emerging star like Morris too, along with more experienced guys like Brach and Sutton. If the Panthers find a reliable #3 team, they become that much more difficult to beat.
- Singles anchor. Similarly, I have no idea who is going to end up playing #6 for the Panthers in 2019. I feel good about Cuba, Farrell, Eazor, Xiao, and Morris in some order (see below for the actual prediction), but then the final spot is really up for grabs. There are a bunch of young guys who could compete for the spot, but even the older players will not be brining any real match experience to the position. The worst case scenario is the dreaded revolving door, but that seems likely if the first choice to play six struggles against Skidmore this weekend.
- Midd’s youth. After Cuba and Farrell, the rest of this team is either very young or very inexperienced. True, those with a little experience can claim national championship experience, so props to Martin/Eazor/Xiao for that, but this will be the most untested Midd team in a long time (do you see an unintentional theme in my 3 random thoughts?) If the new faces (Vilys, Guo, Hilty, or plenty of others) have made strides this offseason, it would mean big things for the Panthers not only this year, but next year when they lose the best 1-2 punch in the country…
- Lubomir Cuba, senior, UTR=12.73, range=1-2. He’s been the best player in the country since he arrived in our little world…’nuff said. Four national championships in just two years at the DIII level (one team, one singles, two doubles), and a 7-5 in the 3rd loss in what would have been his 5th (ITA Oracle Cup two years ago). He has his off days just like everybody else, but somehow his off days still result in close wins against lesser opponents. He didn’t come out with his best stuff this fall, but that means about as much as D3ASW promising to cut back on the snacks. If #Lube turns it on during his senior year, I’m not sure anybody will be able to hold him.
- Noah Farrell, senior (5th year), UTR=12.51, range=1-2. What a damn luxury. We’re used to it by now, but imagine having Noah Farrell A.K.A. Mighty Mouse as your #2 player. At his best, Farrell was the best player in the country three years ago. He had to shake off the rust last year, but he seemed to do so by the end of the year, and had a pretty damn good fall including a run to the QFs at ITA (loss to Sorkin) and winning the Tufts/Brandeis A-Flight with wins over Lilienthal, Biswas, Ko, Fung, and Wei, all likely top-3/4 players for Wes, Tufts, MIT and Amherst (2x). The win over Wei (projected Amherst #1) in the finals was especially impressive as it was 2&2. Like Lubo, I’m excited to see how Noah handles his final season at Midd and believe that the extra motivation of a final season could be exactly what the senior needs.
- Nate Eazor, sophomore, UTR=11.78, range=3-5. One of the biggest question marks in last year’s starting lineup turned into one of the most pleasant Panther surprises in 2019. Eazor wasn’t even a lock to start last year, and he turned into one of the better #5’s in the country down the stretch. The experience gained from NCAAs in invaluable, especially on a younger team after the top two guys. Nasty Nate had some ups and downs this fall, making the Sweet 16 at ITAs (including a win over Coramutla, Brandeis #2), before losing to Ma (projected Amherst #2) in a 3rd set. But he also lost in the first round at Midd (Biswas, projected Tufts #2-4), and Das (Brandeis #3), both times in straight sets. The middle of the lineup is a place where Midd could struggle this year, but if Lil’ Nate picks up some big wins then Midd will become even tougher to beat.
- Stanley Morris freshman, UTR=11.68, range=3-5. This is the first lineup spot that seems at least somewhat up for grabs. Xiao is the odds-on favorite, but I really like what I saw from young Mr. Morris this fall. He won the B-Flight at Midd including a straight-set win over Coramutla (Brandeis #2) in the finals, knocked off Indrakanti (projected Williams #3-4), and Tzeng (Brandeis #4) at the ITA before falling to Sorkin, and beat Austin Barr (projected Williams #1-2) in a super in the first round at Tufts/Brandeis before withdrawing. Those are EXTREMELY impressive results for a fairly unheralded freshman, and Flat Stanley could end up being an integral part of this team looking to defend its title.
- Andre Xiao, sophomore, UTR=11.17, range=3-6. Xiao is the final singles guy who played on last year’s team. He was an incredibly highly touted recruit, who seemed to struggle to get his feet under him to start the year. However, he came through when it mattered most, up a set and a break against Whitman in the NCAA QFs and finishing off Justin Patel in straight sets to earn an absolutely pivotal early point against Bowdoin in the NCAA Finals. Xiao played A-Flight at Midd, but lost to Das (Brandeis #3) in the 1st round, won a round at ITAs (Jacobs, Bates #6 in a super) before pushing Wei (projected Amherst #1) to a super. Andre lost again to Wei in the 1st round at Tufts/Brandeis, but picked up some solid wins in the back draw. Xiao could play as high as #3 for the Panthers, but I think he’ll be more comfortable in this range. The only thing that would shock me is if he weren’t in the starting singles lineup.
- Alex Vanezis, junior, UTR=11.15, range=5-7. This is now total unknown. I thought Vanezis was going to start last year, but he ended up playing behind Eazor, Xiao and TVG. If I had any fall results to back up this claim I would feel more comfortable with this prediction, but I’m guessing Alex was abroad this fall as he didn’t play any matches whatsoever. If he shakes off whatever rust he accrued during his time away, AV is still the favorite to start here, but that is a rather big if…
IN THE HUNT: Weston Brach (junior, UTR=11.16, range: #6-7), Adam Guo (sophomore, UTR=11.63, range: #6-7), David Vilys (freshman, UTR=11.31, range: #6-7), Peter Martin (senior, UTR=11.88 [for doubles], range: doubles lineup). We’ll start with Martin because he’s a shoo-in for the doubles lineup at this point. He played with Farrell all of last year, and will very likely play with Noah again in the #2 spot this spring. However, he could also pair with Cuba as Hansen & Lubo try for a 3rd straight doubles championship. I think he’ll end up a singles specialist, but he could also end up playing six. All three of the other guys listed have almost no real match experience. Obviously Vilys is a freshman, but Guo played #6 against Colby last year, and Brach’s best showings were at #3 doubles against similar teams. If it’s not Vanezis, Guo had the best fall earning a win over Chen (Brandeis #5) and pushing Morris to a super; however, none of them ended the fall on a particularly strong note. We haven’t seen a revolving door at Midd in a long time, but it’s not out of the question!
Midd has put together its usual tough schedule, and the Panthers start off this weekend when they go to Skidmore and host on the same day. Neither should be a problem, but it will be interesting to see if that’s an A-team and a B-team or if they split up their lineup between the matches. Next weekend brings a tougher test in everybody’s favorite upstart, Brandeis. If Deis beats Tufts this weekend, that will be a matchup between two top-10 teams, and we’ll know EXACTLY how good the Judges are after that one. After hosting RPI on Sunday Midd heads off to Cali for spring break.
Finally, this is a spring break schedule that I can get behind. Between Saturday, March 23rd and Wednesday, March 27th the Panthers play one ranked DIII team. Let them get some more match experience and get used to the outdoor tennis, something Vermonters haven’t seen since early October. Midd ends their trip with the two important matches, at PP and at CMS. They should handle PP without any issues, as they are a stronger version of PP at this point and time, but CMS will be Midd’s first match against a true title contender. Remember it was just last year when, after struggling to start the year, CMS came out and laid an 8-1 BEATDOWN on the eventual national champs, so there will be plenty of talk of revenge in this one.
After heading back to New England, the Panthers have the typical excruciating NESCAC schedule, with the added bonus of a visit from Emory. In fact, Midd hosts Wesleyan, Emory, Tufts and Williams in consecutive weekends, so get ready for an inordinate amount of Panther talk in my April weekend previews. Midd ends the season with a Maine trip to play at Bates and Bowdoin, then finishes off at Amherst the following weekend. The Panthers are the hosts for NESCACs, giving Hansen’s heroes at least a small advantage there. This is a VERY similar schedule to years past, and there’s no reason to change it up as it seems to be working of late!