So, did anyone catch that GoT Season 8 trailer drop today? I was far from the biggest fan of Season 7 (and I mean FAR from the biggest fan), but not gonna lie, that trailer got me hype like a Miami Heat intro video. Shout-out to the Vice jerseys. Another thing that got me hype was writing the UMW Spring Break Pre-Cap, which literally never happens, because I’ve never been that excited about UMW continuing their losing streak. But, I am a big believer in the Eagles this year and I think this is the year to end it! (They are up 2-1 on Redlands as I write this). Since this is one of my designated “tree” days on the Blog, where I write like 4 articles in the span of time you can say “D3Northeast is a chump,” I’m continuing the spirit of Spring Break with a preview of my resident roller coaster, the CMU Tartans. They begin their Spring Break this weekend with a match against… well… the Case Western Spartans. And here. we. go.
The Schedule
Saturday, 3/9 – vs. Case Western University @ Orlando, FL – 7:00 PM
Monday, 3/11 – vs. Wash U @ Orlando, FL – 11:30 AM
Tuesday, 3/12 – vs. Amherst College @ Orlando, FL – 11:30 AM
Wednesday, 3/13 – vs. Wesleyan College @ Orlando, FL – 7:00 PM
The Stakes
Well, this is clearly a doozy of a Spring Break trip for the Tartans. With their weak indoors performance, their trip now features 4 Pool C teams that are currently ranked ahead of them in the ITA rankings. Two of them will be their only matchup with those teams (Herst and Wes). So, it’s very easy to see what’s at stake here for the Tartans. CMU needs at least two wins on this trip, anything less is an absolute failure and they can probably kiss their playoff hopes away. Three wins is the real success, because this means they beat one of the teams that are projected to make the playoffs through Pool C (either Wash U or Amherst). That is what the Tartans should be gunning for. They proved that they could hang with Wash U and beat them on the right day given they were about two points away from pulling that win at Indoors, so it definitely can be done. But, it won’t be easy. Making the playoffs in DIII Tennis never is. This slate of matches is also quite interesting because it’s one of the first times in a while we get UAA/NESCAC battles from the 3-5 portion of the conference. These matches (along with the Wash U matches with the NESCAC) will go a long way in proving which conference is stronger, which in turn plays a part in which teams get Pool C bids at the end of the year. Gotta love Pool C.
Keys to the Case Match
I’ll do this Spring Break preview in a little bit of a more abbreviated way, given that there are four big matches and I don’t want to do a match by match preview on two teams that I have not seen play at all this year. So, we’ll do 2-3 key things to watch for each match (MMMMMMMAJOR KEY) and then I might hit you with some match by match later on next week. I’ll do the keys to the match in a very CMU driven scope – if you want more insight on the other teams, I’d tweet at your resident blogger about what you’re not getting that spa treatment.
Here’s the link to Case/CMU Indoors match –
http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/mten/2018-19/files/itacwrm.htm
Key #1: Win a damn match in doubles.
I mean, this is pretty self-explanatory. People easily forget that CMU was up at both the #1 and #3 spots in this match (#1 was up 7-5, #3 on serve at 7-6) and blew both of those matches to get swept. I mean, I wouldn’t expect that to happen again, but the skeptic in me always tells me to expect the worst. Case is a disciplined team. Everyone has come to know this. That’s how they beat you in big moments, because they know that they have worked their ass off enough to not get super nervous in these situations. I’d expect that on a neutral outdoor court that CMU wins one of these matches (I mean, Levine/Downing should be a favorite), but it’s not a given at all. This is CMU’s first match on Spring Break and they will need to bring the fire off the bat or their season will go from bad to worse. A loss to Case again could effectively eliminate them from the playoffs.
Key #2: Don’t get complacent.
I think it’s generally assumed that CMU is the “better” team despite the 5-4 loss on the road to the Spartans. But that thinking has gotten them into trouble before. CMU has put themselves in a position where all matches need to be taken seriously. They’ve used their slip up for the year right off the bat. So, even if they take 1 or even 2 doubles matches, it is imperative they come out to some big leads in singles like they did in the first meeting. Levine/Downing/Boppana should be a favorite in at least two of those matches, depending where Aaron Umen plays. The Tartans also need to be wary of a Sam Concannon sighting, as the well-known Spartan has not been seen in action this year despite a history of strong performance at the bottom of the lineup.
Quick Prediction:
Despite my misgivings about CMU being the favorite in this match, I’ve noted that I’ve hitched my car to the CMU hype train this year and will continue doing so until we totally derail. I think CMU comes out of the doubles portion with one win (at #1) and goes on to win this match 6-3, with a loss at the bottom of the lineup.
Keys to the Wash U Match
Here’s the link to their first meeting:
http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/mten/2018-19/files/itawashm.htm
This has been the match of the year to date, and will be a candidate for the match of the year when we finish up in May.
Key #1: Change #3 Doubles
I’m not one to call for straight up changes in a team, but I think this is one of the situations that warrants it. THe team of Neves/Hillis is a stacked team at #3, and assuming that Wash U continues to throw that combination out there, I’m not sure if the current set-up of Bloem/Arora can hang with them. Watching this match on the Indoors livestream showed me a team that doesn’t match up well with the Wash U burners at #3, and I’d potentially switch up the team for this match as a counteraction. CMU won 2 out of the 3 doubles in this one when they met at indoors, but doubles is always a dicey prospect when it comes to predictions.
Key #2: Gibson, Reborn
Sam Gibson, one of CMU’s impact freshman, got a rude awakening at Indoors against both Wash U and Case, but specifically against Wash U. Going up against the senior Kozlowski (who was later pulled from singles in later matches) was a clear move by Coach Follmer to mix it up against the young gun. Kozlowski attacked the net and absolutely blitzed Gibson to the tune of a 6-0 first set. The youngin recovered, but it wasn’t enough – Koz won this one in three sets last go round. Gibson should expect to face another freshman in this one, most likely ITA Regional star McLelland, who obviously brings a different look. Gibson is right there, and one big win could really get this kid’s career started.
Key #3: Banana Boat
Those of you that are NBA fans are familiar with the “Banana Boat” of LBJ, Wade, Melo, and CP3. Those that are not, well, sorry. But anyways, CMU’s star players (Levine, Downing, Boppana) need to erase the memory of Indoors for this one. Hillis is looking like a bonafide stud for Wash U, Neves has always been a tough out at #2, and Boppana is slumping right now. CMU cannot afford to get swept at the top 3 (not many teams can). For a team that relied so heavily on its thoroughbreds last year, another clean sweep is simply unacceptable. Pressure is on.
Quick Prediction:
NewCentral is going to hate me, but I think this is a 50/50 match that will tilt in CMU’s favor this time around. I’m not a believer in a desperation boost. But what I do believe is that Wash U isn’t going to straight up sweep the CMU top 3 again. Wash U may take the doubles lead in this one, but my gut tells me Levine shows up in Florida given that he didn’t get on the bus to Cleveland two weeks ago. Give me wins at #1D, #1S, #3S, #4S, and #5S for a 5-4 CMU win.
Keys to the Amherst/Wesleyan Matches
MAJOR KEY: Fitness and Fight
I know nothing about the Amherst and Wesleyan teams right now outside of rumblings from NE or NEWRegional, and I don’t trust those rumblings more than I trust the rumblings of my stomach after having Indian food. What I do know, is that CMU will be playing 3 matches in 3 days (and 4 matches in 5 days) against top 15 opponents in Florida. Sound hard? Well, it probably will be tough. This will be a true test of mental and physical toughness for the Tartans in what are some obviously important matches. Not much we can do about it now, but hopefully we don’t see some injury timeouts come next Wednesday.
General Thoughts:
The only match that I’m not feeling great about for the Tartans would be against the Mammoths. Amherst will be a little fresher than the Tartans given they play Kenyon the day before but that’s really it. Chemistry issues have hounded Herst but at the end of last year we saw a decently tight-knit team (or good actors) that was competing at the highest level with key absences. With another infusion of freshmen talent to go with no major departures (from the end of the year), Coach Doebler and Amherst look geared for a NESCAC run this year. This is the match that I can see getting out of hand quick if the Tartans don’t come out strong and thoughts of saving energy for the next day creep into their minds.
Against Wesleyan, it’s a bit of a flipped script. Wesleyan rumblings are not coming out totally great right now but that really is all speculation. Wesleyan is a much younger, greener, team. But, CMU will be on their last match of Spring Break. It’s not going to be easy to play four 6-3 or closer matches in the span of 5 days for anyone. CMU is the better team going into this match but the fitness portion of it all is the equalizer. Luckily for the Tartans, Wes will be playing their fourth match in four days (interesting strategy there) and will have played Wash U the day before. This really will be a battle of tired legs.
Conclusion
I think I said all I need to say in this one. Get ready for one hell of a week. ASouth, OUT.