This Weekend in the Central: March 1-3, 2019

 

RE: This Weekend in the CENTRAL REGION: March 1-3, 2019

 

#1 U Chicago: idle

#8 Wash U: idle

#12 GAC: March 2: vs. St. Olaf & Hamline

#13 Kenyon idle

#14 Case Western: idle

#24 Kalamazoo: March 3: vs. #25 Denison

#25 Denison: March 2: vs. Hope, March 3 vs. #24 Kalamazoo

#35 Oberlin: March 2: vs. #32 Rochester, March 3 vs. #36 Hobart

#38 Carleton: March 3: vs. St. Thomas

 

Edit 3.1.19 11:36 EST – WOW what a wild finish to Pomona and Carnegie – Maria Lyven, welcome to the national stage. What an amazing and complete team comeback by the Hens.

National Indoors is the unofficial kickoff to the d3 season, and it couldn’t have gotten to a more electric start. The Blog’s coverage of the event was on point all weekend and our women’s writers are sure to outdo us this upcoming weekend if their preview game is any indication. We have a new number one team in the country: THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO. The Maroons won indoors defeating Case, Wash U, and Emory and with it grabbed the keys to the UAA driver’s seat. The new ITA rankings came out and Carleton hops in at #38, so I’ve added them to this (and all future) weekends in the central. The top dogs in this region are on break gearing up for their respective Spring Breaks (or getting back to schoolwork), but we are privy to some ranked matches – highlighted by Kalamazoo and Denison. Oberlin also hops over to upstate NY in an attempt to jumpstart their d3 season with matches with newly ranked (congratulations!) Rochester and Hobart led by All-American Dubrovsky. Our teams to the North have skirmishes set up with some conference opponents as well but they should stomp down any dissent. Joining me are RegionalNEC and RegionalNEW to add their thoughts, quips, and analysis of the first d3 weekend of March.

 

Analysis:

#12 Gustavus Adolphus vs. St. Olaf & Hamline: March 2

GAC is coming off of a fifth place finish at National Indoors: they were defeated by Pomona 5-4 in the first round before bouncing back to defeat Whitman 7-2 and stomping Case 5-0. GAC’s next couple weekends are filled with conference and local opponents before they jetsetrun off to California to play myriad matches culminating in CMS. St. Olaf and Hamline, as teams, are both comprehensively overmatched. St. Olaf defeated Hamline 5-4 just about a week ago (week ago, week ago). Jake Trondson, our flavor of the fall, has begun his season undefeated in singles and if he hopes to qualify for Individuals this will be one of his most important matches. GAC should win both of these matches fairly easily and should give some burn to multiple players, but I’m interested to see how Trondson does in his first big dual match test of the season.

D3RegionalNEC: I agree with everything NewCentral said. Trondson beat GAC #1 Patrick Whaling 6-2, 6-4 in the fall ITA, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens in round 2. Whaling lost to Kirsh and Kronenberg at indoors but did beat Matt Chen from Case, the only in-region opponent he faced. There’s a lot on the line in this one—Trondson will make NCAAs if he wins out, but Whaling will also put himself in the mix if he wins here and keeps it going against some of the other top Central #1s.

 

#25 Denison vs. Hope: March 2

Denison gets their big weekend started a little earlier with a match with Hope the day before their date with Kalamazoo. Hope should pose very little opposition as Denison will have a tougher time with the journey than the Dutch. I always liked traveling for a big match as early as possible (to the unhappiness of my papers) and I think that Coach Burling is thinking similarly – Denison defeated Kalamazoo last season, but both teams appear to be better than last season (and Kalamazoo wasn’t playing for anything). I don’t have too much hope about Hope’s hopes this weekend.

D3RegionalNEC: I’ve heard that Hope is one of the nicest teams in D3. Be nice to them, Denison!

 

#24 Kalamazoo vs. #25 Denison (@Kalamazoo): March 3

1 Doubles: Daniel Henry & Ian Yi vs. Kevin Brown & Blake Burstein:

newCentral: Brown and Burstein have been at this a long, long time. I’m going to go with the future doctor and his partner to get the W in this one – this Denison team uses the most intimidating I-formation stance in this country’s history and I think that they’ll couple it with bigtime returns from the veterans to steal this one, and the doubles lead. Denison 8-6

2 Doubles: Zach Ray & Allen Vinson vs. Tim Cianciola & Mitchell Thai

newCentral: Cianciola and Thai defeated Chicago’s 2 a couple of weeks ago which bodes well for teh 1st year, 2nd year combo. Ray and Vinson may be the most technically savvy doubles players for Kalamazoo (at least Vinson is fosho), but I think that Thai and Cianciola will be able to hit through any plans or strategies that Kalamazoo comes up with. Denison 8-4

3 Doubles: Tytus Metzler & Casey Johnson vs. Brian Weisberg & Patrick McGuigan

newCentral: I am a Brian Weisberg fan. That being said, I think that Metzler and Johnson keep Kalamazoo’s hopes alive and steal this match from behind. Weisberg is the best doubles player on this court, I think that he’ll be able to take control from the outset but eventually the quality of Metzler and the newness of Johnson will storm back for some Kalamazoo momentum. Kalamazoo 8-5

1 Singles: Ian Yi vs. Vlad Rotnov

newCentral: Vlad Rotnov was the talk of the d3 town last season as a 1st year. He’s got enough endurance to last the Iditarod, enough competitive fire to give Endeavor a run for his money, and pants, almost always pants. Ian Yi and his headband will have long long looooonnnnngggg points with Rotnov, but I have a lot of faith in this first year to not only win this match but to qualify for Individuals at the end of the year. Rotnov plays elite defense by virtue of his speed and endurance, but I think Yi will be able to pin the 2nd yr into a corner en route to a turbulent win. Kalamazoo: 6-3, 3-6, 6-4

2 Singles: Daniel Henry vs. Mitchell Thai

newCentral: This is a peculiar match to preview because both players change the way their opponents have to play. Henry is imposing and plays like a fortress that can’t be pushed off the baseline where Thai has a superior backhand to his forehand. I once saw Thai hit a backhand winner from Ohio that landed clean AF in Indiana, that’s how nice this kid’s crosscourt backhand is. Will it be angled enough to pull Henry into an uncomfortable position? That’s probably the most pressing question here, but in the end I think that the home crowd pushes Henry across the finish line before Thai, by a hair. Kalamazoo: 3-6, 6-4, 7-5

3 Singles: Tytus Metzler vs. Tim Ciancola

newCentral: All Legends had a moment that begins their legacy. I think that this will be Ciancolas. I predict that this match will be tied at 4-4 when Ciancola defeats Metzler in a match deciding tiebreaker. He’s a big kid with a great game built by one of Syracuse’s best coaches and I think that he’ll be able to compete harder than Metlzer in a hard fought victory to end the weekend. Denison: 6-1, 5-7, 7-6(4)

4 Singles: Allen Vinson vs. Kevin Brown

newCentral: KEVIN BROWN IS NOT A FOUR. That being said, this match could be closer than I anticipate; Vinson has some serious guts, the home court advantage can’t hurt, and both of these players play better when their teams are relying on them. I still think that Kevin Brown’s serve (indoors too, oh man oh man – I can say that I watched a lot of these go by people in my day) and his forward-looking game will be too much for Vinson to overcome and the BIG RED Senior Captain takes this one in straights. Denison 7-5, 7-5

5 Singles: Alex Cadigan vs. Patrick McGuigan & 6 Singles: Casey Johnson vs. Jacob Dennen

newCentral: I think that Denison and Kalamazoo are going to split the bottom two spots, and while I’m not sure who wins – I’d bet that McGuigan and Johnson secure the bags for their teams. McGuigan proved himself as the second best five in the NCAC last year, and Johnson is a Wisconsin tennis icon: more or less the same accomplishment. Both matches could go either way but for selection’s sake – I’ll go with Dension at 5: 6-2, 4-6, 6-1, Kalamazoo at 6: 7-5, 6-4.

newCentral: Denison def. Kalamazoo 5-4

NewRegional: High-key, low-key this is a really good early season matchup between the number 5 and 6 teams in the Central region. Each team has played 3 matches so far this year, with a common opponent in Chicago. Denison lost to Toledo 6-1, Chicago 8-1, and took a 6-3 win over Rhodes. Kalamazoo has taken 9-0 and 6-3 wins over Wabash and Coe, and a 7-2 loss to Chicago. I think this Kalamazoo team is really strong and is going to surprise someone this year, and think they should win this match. Doubles has been up and down for both teams, with Denison going down 2-1 to Rhodes, and Kalamazoo going down 3-0 to Coe before sweeping singles. I like Denison to go up 2-1 after doubles before Kalamazoo comes back to take 4/6 singles for the 5-4 win. Most importantly, I hope Ian Yi keeps rocking the thin, neon green headband. It’s not a look I could pull off, but there’s nothing I love more than a first-year (@newCentral) balling out while making a fashion statement. Yi has been very strong at the top of the lineup this spring, and is definitely someone to watch the rest of the year.

D3RegionalNEC: This is a TOUGH match to predict. The combination of neither team having a ton of data points yet and being extremely evenly matched on paper makes me think that this one is going to be close no matter what. Both teams are pretty young, which doesn’t necessarily mean much of anything, but I thought I’d point it out anyway. Last year, I was conductor of the Denison hype train in response to their very solid recruiting class, and while they’ve definitely gotten better with the likes of Rotnov and Thai at the top of the lineup, there is considerably less chatter this year about Denison being a realistic threat to Kenyon in the NCAC. That’s somewhat beside the point, but what I’m trying to say is that I’m not as high on Denison as I once was, and I’m more impressed with the way Kalamazoo has not only reinvented themselves in a post-BMetz world, they’ve actually only gotten better. It’s kind of a “flavor of the month” kind of pick, but I’m taking Kalamazoo 5-4.

 

#35 Oberlin vs. #32 Rochester (@Rochester): March 2

D3RegionalNEC: My first thought when opening the Google doc that NewCentral put together was “Oh yeah baby, we’re breaking down Rochester-Oberlin match by match!” Unfortunately, my second thought was, “I don’t know nearly enough about many of these guys to do this.” So I’m just going to lump my thoughts all together here.

Doubles wise, Rochester has been playing extremely solid so far, sweeping the doubles pretty convincingly in their three matches thus far (RPI, Vassar, Ithaca). Putting them on their home courts for the first time should only help matters I would imagine, so I expect the Yellowjackets to be up at least 2-1, and you certainly can’t rule out a sweep.

Singles wise, I definitely give Rochester the edge at #1, where Masaru Fujimaki is off to a great start to his senior year and is simply the better player right now than Stephen Gruppuso. No one else from Rochester has really distinguished themselves too much so far—Shen, Thakkar, and Somani make up a decent mid-lineup bunch and I think at least one of those three will find a win. I don’t know a ton about either team’s #5-6, but I’d venture to guess that they are pretty evenly matched. It’s not unlikely that the match will come down to those two spots as they will be playing on four courts I assume, so then the big question is—who handles the moment better? Rochester has already had two dramatic 5-4 wins this spring, whereas every match Oberlin has played has been a blowout win or loss, so I lean Rochester there. Overall, I think the good doubles play continues, and the Jackets come away with a 6-3 victory.

newCentral: When I was setting up the article, I also thought we were going to go through this match by match but like NEC both of these teams are fairly foreign to us, so we’ll do a block preview here.

Rochester and Oberlin have quietly enjoyed some high drama matches over the past two years: Oberlin defeated Rochester 5-4 in 2017, and 7-2 in 2018  but both of those matches were at Oberlin. The Oberlin team graduated their most impactful class in history (Drougas, Manickam, Gittings, Kimmel) and all four were essential in their 7-2 win last year. This Rochester team seems to have taken a leap in quality, as highlighted by their RPI uspet and their Vassar trap win. I’d say Fujimaki is finally coming into his own, but that’d be a lie – this mans been in his bag BALLIN for years, I’m glad he’s getting some national recognition now. If Rochester gets on Oberlin in doubles it could be a quick day at the office for the Yellow Jackets.

I think that the game changer in this match will be Oberlin’s sleeping lion: Camron Cohen. He was statistically, and eye-test wise, the best five in the NCAC last year and he should step it up this weekend at 2 doubles and 3 singles. The singles matchups carry a lot of intrigue: Gruppuso v Fujimaki – Gruppuso is hoping to succeed where Drougas did not, while Fujimaki hopes to further build a case for Individuals; 2 singles features Shen, who had to retire the clinch away two years ago and is hoping for redemption at home and Vaughn who is one of Oberlin’s pillars this year; while 3-6 all feature a multitude of first years and veterans all itching to make their mark on the 2019 season. I think that Rochester is favored at 1, 4, and 5 singles with 2, 3, and 6 being in Oberlin’s favor. This match will likely end 5-4, and I believe that the whomever comes out ahead after doubles will win because I see these teams splitting singles this weekend. With things as close as they are (and with NEC going Rochester) I’ll select Oberlin for the upset this weekend 5-4.

 

#35 Oberlin vs. #36 Hobart (@Hobart): March 3

NewRegional: A busy few weeks for Oberlin as they make a New York swing and then send it down to Hilton Head for spring break. This is the first we’re seeing of Hobart this year, and will provide a good barometer about what to expect this year. With RPI losing to Rochester and Skidmore looking vulnerable, the Liberty League is wide open this year. If Hobart wants to make a push towards the conference championship, they will need a convincing win over a scrappy Oberlin team at home. We haven’t seen either team play a close match this year, as Oberlin’s played a few non-D3 teams and lost 9-0 to CMU, while Hobart has taken out Oneonta 9-0.  For Hobart, Dubrovsky had a fantastic fall and I think he’ll cruise to a 2-0 day. I see Oberlin taking a doubles point and two out of 4-6 singles, but the Statesmen will take a 6-3 win.

D3RegionalNEC: I’ll try not to be too repetitive, as NewRegional pretty much hit the nail on the head here. Though it’s only two guys, Hobart seniors Jonathan Atwater and Jonah Salita have been a huge part of the team’s rise over the past few years, playing in the top 3 throughout their careers. Given the lack of a clear favorite in the Liberty League right now and the senior presence for the Statesmen, I’m sure Hobart is hoping for big things this year. A win against Oberlin would be a great start, and I definitely like them at home here, especially a day after Oberlin plays Rochester in what could be a long battle.

Dubrovsky should absolutely be good for two points, and I think Atwater is going to have a big year for the Statesmen as well, so he could account for two more points for ‘Bart. Not sure if Salita will be playing, but no matter, Hobart’s depth is better than it has been in a while. Oberlin is a scrappy team and won’t go away easily, so I certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see the Yeoman win this one, but on their home courts with an decently experienced squad, I’m taking Hobart 6-3.

newCentral: Oberlin defeated Hobart 6-3 last time they played, but as I alluded to in the Rochester preview, these teams carry a very different look into 2019. Dubrovsky is a different animal from last year, and unless Oberlin comes out to a sweep it’s hard to imagine that these new look Statesman drop one to the visitors, though weirder things have happened. Hobart will lean on the strength of their top three this year, but Oberlin is a good litmus test for their depth. Salita is also a wildcard for the Statesmen – will he factor in this match or later in the season? Hobart is looking to make some noise this year, and a revenge win over Oberlin would be a great way to start their campaign. I’ll echo NEC and NEW with a Hobart win: 6-3.

#38 Carleton vs. St. Thomas: March 3

St. Thomas doesn’t have the horses to run with Carleton this year. St. Thomas opens the weekend with Hamline before this match, so Sibley will have tough weekend with Vithoontien and Trondson. Carleton should win this very, very convincingly and will continue gearing up for their spring break where they have matches with Oberlin, Depauw, and Sewanee – all three being winnable matches for the Knights. I predict a lot of carbs in Minnesota.