Happy Thursday, boys and girls, and welcome to what has become an annual February Blog tradition. It’s not as exciting as INDOORS DRAFTKINGS, which is coming again later this month, but the Bates Bobcats will be starting their season in the next couple weeks which means it’s time for me to droll on about why they should regress this year and aren’t likely to make NESCACs. Only…I’ve been consistently wrong over the past few years! Nothing makes me happier than predicting a team will struggle only for them to outperform my expectations, provided that it’s an NE team of course. Bates has earned a postseason berth each of the past few years, despite regularly graduating a crop of their top players. Maybe it’s time for me to realize that Coach Gastonguay continually develops his players over their time in Maine, which is why i’m always saying that graduations will hurt Bates in these season previews. So while I continue to believe that Bates is a great place to go if you’re willing to work and develop your craft on the court, I’m also a stubborn, gut-driven person and I think…wait for it, Bates is likely to struggle this year. Prove me wrong, Bobcats!
LOCATION: Lewiston, Maine
COACH: Paul Gastonguay (23rd season)
ASSISTANT COACH: Sam Woods (7th season)
TWITTER HANDLE: @BatesTennis. Solid for score updates, but won’t tweet for every match. Always good for A LOT of nicknames…
ITA NATIONAL RANKING: 24th
ITA REGIONAL RANKING: 7th
BLOG POWER RANKING: 25th
STOCK WATCH: Down. I never like writing that, and as I said above I really hope I’m wrong, but give the loss of the program’s best player over the past two-three years along with another top-3 player, AND the tease of another’s arrival only to see him leave the team means I have no choice. Bates could struggle this year, and this will take some of Coach Gastonguay’s best work to keep his beloved Bobcats in the hunt for the top-20. Luckily, he’s one of the best out there.
2017-2018 RECAP: So many 5-4 losses including Brandeis, Mary Wash, Hopkins and even Amherst, Bates was this close to pushing back towards the top 15 again. Massive home wins over Tufts and MIT closed the regular season nicely and the win over the Jumbos netted the Bobcats another trip to NESCACs, where they were promptly dispatched by future NCAA champion Middlebury.
TWEET-LENGTH REVIEW OF FALL: Ups and downs with many abroad/injured, Wernink would have been nice in the top half of the lineup, who will step up for the Cats?
KEY ADDITIONS: Pieter Wernink (3-star from NY???) Wilder Geier (2-star from Ohio).
KEY DEPARTURES: Ben Rosen (#1 singles/#1 doubles), Josh Leiner (#3 singles/#2 doubles), Pieter Wernink (3-star from NY???). Wernink played in the fall and looked ready to slot in at either #1 or #2 for Bates this spring, but he is no longer on the team. Yes, he remains on the roster, but sources confirm that he will not be playing at Bates this spring.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: Kauppila emerges as a solid #1, and a couple guys from the moshpit that is #3 onwards emerge to become lineup staples. Bates has the same year they’ve had for the past 3-4 years where they lose to teams in the top-20, but beat most of the teams they “should” beat, and end their year with a BIG win at Tufts to earn yet another spot at NESCACs after most people counted them out.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Bates struggles at the top of the lineup, and is still hit by the revolving door at the bottom. The Bobcats not only miss NESCACs for the first time in a few years, but also lose to Colby, dropping them to 8th in the conference. Out of conference is also rough, as Bates loses to Brandeis, MIT, Mary Washington, and Hopkins, knocking them out of the regional rankings and perilously close to out of the national rankings all together.
BOLD PREDICTION: Bates qualifies a team for NCAAs. Given the loss of Rosen, and lack of loud ascension to the top spot, it’s tough to believe Bates will have any individual qualifiers this spring, but let’s take a look back at Bates’ recent top doubles teams. 2018: Rosen/Kauppila 3rd in the region, 2017: Ellis/Rosen 5th in the region/9th nationally, 2016: different teams due to injuries, 2015: Planche/Ellis 4th in the region, 2014: Berg/Planche 1st in the region, 2013: Crampton/Bettles 3rd in the region, 2012: Crampton/Bettles 5th in the region. Look at all the different teams there! Yes, they had players carry over, but that’s what happening this year. If Bates can find a partner Kauppila, Coach Gastonguay, who is renown for his doubles acumen, might be able to work his magic and produce yet another NCAA doubles qualifier.
NOT-SO-BOLD PREDICTION: Kauppila ends up playing #1 for most of the year. Quijano has the experience edge, and does play close matches no matter the opponent, but I like Kauppila’s game and think his ceiling is too high for him not to get at least some run at #1 this spring. All I’m predicting here is the likely #2 plays above the likely #1, but these guys are pretty close to begin with. How soon this prediction comes to pass will likely depend on how Kauppila looks to start the spring, as he was out all fall (likely abroad).
-
Q! Josh Quijano, senior, UTR=11.21, range: #1-3. While this lineup prediction gets pretty iffy the farther we go, it’s a pretty good bet that either Quijano or Kauppila will end up the top Bobcat this year. Q has been a fixture in the top half of the Bates lineup over his time in Lewiston, and this fall was no exception. He played A-Flight at Midd and lost in the 1st round to Williamson (projected Skid #1-2) in a superbreaker, won a round at the ITA before losing in another superbreaker to Kam (projected Williams #1-2), and then lost in the first round of the A-Flight at the Wallach to Das (projected Deis #1-5) in, you guessed it, a superbreaker. Josh can hang with everybody, but it’s more than a baby-step to get from playing everybody close, to winning a lot of those close matches. If there was ever a time for Q to take that extra step, it would be his senior spring.
- Jacob Kauppila, junior, UTR =11.77, range: #1-3. I already said that I think Kaup will end up playing some #1 for Bates, but given that Quijano seems to play close matches with whomever he’s facing, maybe this order gives Bates the best chance to win at both spots. This is me looking on the bright side, but I do think Kaup has the potential to be a very good player. He flashed his doubles skills last season, and I expect him to be at the top of the doubles lineup as well, though I have no idea with whom he will be partnering. Besides Rosen, JK was probably Bates’ most relied upon singles spot last season, and Bates needs him to follow in the footsteps of guys like Stein, Bettles, Planche, and Rosen who have taken the leap from reliable in the middle of the lineup, to legitimate top players.
- Alex Jacobs, sophomore, UTR=10.69, range: #3-5. And this is where we start throwing lineup darts. Yadav was likely abroad this fall, and while he’s shown flashes of brilliance, Jacobs was here this fall and consistently played above most of the rest of his teammates. He played B-Flight at Midd and the Wallach, and was one of four guys who were chosen to play at the ITA. His best result was a superbreaker loss to Xiao (projected Midd #3-6) in the 1st round of the ITA, but Alex didn’t win a singles match through the fall. AJ didn’t play all that much last year, so hopefully he gained some good experience points and is ready to compete. This is where not having Wernink really hurts, and I’m afraid that whomever plays #3 for Bates will likely have a tough time this year, and although Bates tends to stick with their lineups, you may see the unlikely middle of the lineup revolving door this year.
-
VID Vid Yadav, junior, UTR=11.06, range: #2-5. Again, I want to make it clear that given the similarity in results from all of the Bates guys from #3-#7, this could be terribly wrong. With that said, let’s go with Lil’ Yadav here. He was actually good as a freshman playing down near the bottom of the lineup, then suffered a minor setback last year, before going abroad (I assume) this fall. If he’s back and playing well, Vid could even work his way up near the top of the lineup, but I think this is more realistic, and honestly might even be a bit high to start the year. However, at least in the short term, he appears to have a higher ceiling than most of the other guys competing for the middle of the lineup.
- Nick Glover, junior, UTR=10.34, range: #4-7. Glover’s is a bit of a mystery. I’ve heard that he’s a good player whose results don’t back up his level of play, so maybe this is the year to put up or shut up for the Glove. He played some singles at the end of last spring, and was very up and down, notching good wins over Amherst and Tufts, but also getting wrecked by Colby and losing to MIT. Nick didn’t have a great fall, losing in the 1st round of the C-Flight at Midd and then not playing any more singles. G-Love has started more consistently in the doubles lineup through his time at Bates, and he’s a good bet to not only play but probably in one of the top two teams (some combo of Kauppila, Quijano, Davis, Glover and Kennedy). I’d be surprised if he didn’t start the year in the singles lineup, but no combo would shock me at this point.
- Duane Davis, senior, UTR=10.04, range: #3-7. Davis, or Diesel as he is referred to by Bates Twitter, is another Bates senior who is getting every chance to earn his lineup spot. He played B-Flight at Midd and the Wallach, and was one of the four who played singles at the ITA. However, Davis didn’t have a great fall, losing all three of this 1st round matches in a relatively routine fashion. One of the tri-captains this year, Davis will undoubtedly be called upon to lead the team both on and off the court. Given his placement in the fall tournaments he could end up as high as #3. Last year a similar thing happened with Leiner, who ended up surprising me and played pretty well at the position. Davis at #3 does give the likes of Jacobs/Yadav/Glover/Eisenbrg/Kennedy a better chance to win in the bottom half of the lineup, but I have a hard time projecting Davis in the starting lineup without any real dual match singles experience or any fall wins. As I said, he could end up as high as #3 or totally out of the lineup, but I’m sure he’ll get his shot at some point.
IN THE HUNT: Jacob Eisenberg (junior, UTR=10.48, range: #4-7), Alex Kennedy (sophomore, UTR=10.09, range: #5-7), Wilder Geier (freshman, UTR=10.53, range: #6-7). Eisenberg had some lineup experience last season, while Kennedy had very little, and Geier is a freshman. Jacob didn’t play at all this fall, but my guess is he was abroad. He has the highest ceiling of any of these guys at the moment, and I think in Bates’ best lineup he would play #6. Kennedy didn’t win a match this fall, while Geier got on the board with a 1st round win over Skidmore in the C-Flight at the Wallach. If Kennedy or Geier work their butts off this winter they have a shot at the lineup, but it’s an uphill battle. Kennedy is more likely to begin the year in the singles lineup than Geier, but he’s more likely to start in the doubles lineup. If Eisenberg comes back ready to go, he has a very good shot at the lineup, and he should probably be in ahead of Davis.
Bates is taking a break from what has become a customary Cali trip over their extremely early spring break, and this year will be heading down to sunny Florida instead. Bates last went to Florida in 2011, so this change is noteworthy. While down south, the Bobcats will play only one match, lining up for battle against former DII champ Rollins. Given the early timing of Bates’ spring break trip, it’s almost impossible for them to line up a trip with other teams like will be happening in Florida in March, so the Cats are going to rely on more practices and less match play to start their year. I like the idea of not having to play a massive match against PP to start the year, especially with so many question marks in their lineup, but I wish the Cats got a few more matches in while in Florida, just to give their younger guys more experience.
After Florida, Bates has a busy March, playing eight matches and only one NESCAC team (Conn College). Bates will be Brandeis’ first real indoor test of the year, but the Judges will have already taken on PP, Redlands, Caltech and CMS on their spring break trip just a couple weeks prior. Advantage Deis, but you know that Coach Gastonguay will have something up his sleeve when he takes on his former mentee in Coach Lamanna. Bates also travels down to the AS to play at Hopkins then even further south to Mary Wash again in order to play both UMW and UWW. UMW won a brutal 5-4 decision last year, and the Eagles should probably be favored this year, but these teams have a history of playing close matches, and should provide excellent measuring sticks for each other at that point in their seasons. The Bobcats finish off March with a NEWMAC weekend of MIT and Babson. Though Bates is ranked significantly ahead of MIT, look for that match to be close, and there is usually some heat between those two teams.
April brings NESCAC season, and like always it’s a doozy. Hosting Colby to start the month will be a make or break match, as a loss almost certainly means no NESCACs for the Cats. A couple weeks off for Finals, then at Trinity, at Amherst, vs Midd, vs Bowdoin, at Tufts comes in what will be a brutal eight-day stretch. If Bates beats Colby, then their match at Tufts will likely once again be for the final spot at NESCACs. Bates finishes the year at Williams before hopefully heading back to NESCACs at Midd. The usual NESCAC schedule is quite foreboding, even if it is without Wesleyan this year, and Bates should look at every one of their April matches as an opportunity to show just how good they are, no matter the result of any of their previous matches.