NCAA FINALS PREVIEW: No. 1 Bowdoin vs No. 2 Middlebury
As the legendary Damian Kulash said, here it goes…here it goes…here it goes again. Not only is the the third and final round of a 2018 heavy-weight fight, it’s a rematch of the 2016 finals, when Bowdoin won its first and only NCAA title. Midd had beaten Bowdoin twice already that year, but Bowdoin won the finals 5-0, proving to us that past results don’t define us. Now, Middlebury looks to take these words to heart. Just like 2016, the third time will be the charm for either the Polar Bears or Panthers, who have split their 2018 matches. Middlebury demolished the Polar Bears, 8-1, indoors at Midd, while Bowdoin beat the Panthers 5-3 at Amherst in the NESCAC Tournament Finals. Both matches lasted longer than 4.5 hours, and we just might be in store for another epic on Wednesday. Both teams are senior heavy. Bowdoin starts Tercek/Wolfe/Roddy, who with a win on Wednesday could cement themselves as the most successful recruiting class in modern DIII history. Middlebury starts De Quant, Schlanger, and van der Geest, but don’t forget that Farrell was originally part of that class as well. At the helm of each ship, a fearless captain. Though somewhat contrasting in their styles, Coach Hansen and Coach Smith have proven time and time again that they belong at the top of the game. Can Bob get his first title away from Cruz, or will Conor become the first coach since Hansen more than a decade ago to win two titles in three years? Before breaking down the individual matches, here are a few things to note that could affect the outcome of this match.
1) Bowdoin has been playing incredible doubles of late. They swept through their QF with Wash U and today’s SF with Chicago. It’s not unreasonable to think they have a shot at sweeping tomorrow too, and if that’s the case then turn out the lights, the party’s over.
2) Middlebury is the more talented team. Plain and simple, the Panthers were the preseason favorite to win it all, they’ve shown that at their best they are the best team in the country, and they have the most talented top-4 guys since CMS a few years ago led with Wood, Dorn, Marino & Butts.
3) Bowdoin seems to have an edge in the intangible department. A number of people that I’ve talked to over the past couple days have talked about Bowdoin’s “intangibles.” They have strong leadership, NCAA title winning experience, and compose themselves with straight class homie on the courts. In a tight match, this can be something that moves the needle.
4) How will Midd treat the hump? It’s a hump that this current team has been dealing with throughout their entire career. They have made the Final-Four every year, which is truly remarkable, but have gone 2-2 in those semis, and have yet to win a title. If the Panthers are thinking about the hump they must get over, they are in trouble.
5) I have to give myself a little pat on the back here, as I picked this NCAA Final way back in September. I’ll repeat my words from that day verbatim, “Midd will be favored, but the longer Bowdoin hangs around the more dangerous they become, and unless Midd finds consistent points at the bottom of their lineup, I can’t see myself picking against the Polar Bears in a pressure situation.” Bowdoin vs Middlebury…Dynasty vs Destiny…here it goes, here it goes, here it goes again.
#1 doubles: Cuba/Schlanger (Midd) vs Tercek/Urken (Bowdoin)
Regular Season Result: MIDD 8-5
NESCACs Result: MIDD 8-6
NCAA Finals prediction: Midd won this matchup both times this year, but Tercek and Urken have looked phenomenal against Wash U and Chicago. Now, Schlanger and Cuba haven’t really been slouches either, winning their match against Emory today and a very talented Whitman team on Monday. There are going to be a lot of swing matches, but this is one of them! Bowdoin 9-8(5)
#2 doubles: Farrell/de Quant (Midd) vs Wolfe/Jiang (Bowdoin)
Regular Season Result: MIDD 8-4
NESCACs Result: BOWDOIN 8-4
NCAA Finals prediction: Another match, another swing match! This Midd team is much better than the iffy display they put on today against Emory. Wolfe and Jiang came up big when it mattered most against a very talented team in Raclin/Yuan. Just like I said in my semifinal preview, the longer this match goes the more I like the toughness of the Bowdoin duo, but if Farrell/WDQ come out hot then they will be tough to beat. Bowdoin, 8-6.
#3 doubles: Martin/van der Geest (Midd) vs Roddy/Zhao (Bowdoin)
Regular Season Result: MIDD 9-8(2)
NESCACs Result: MIDD 8-4
NCAA Finals prediction: Three doubles matches, three swing matches! Once again, Midd won both these matches last time around. Once again, Bowdoin is the hotter team right now, having won both matches so far this week and STOMPING on Chua/Liu at #3 today. The doubles specialists for the Panthers broke back to level their match, but ultimately fell 9-7. I really want to pick Bowdoin, and if Zhao plays like he did today they should take this match, but I can’t in good conscience pick another sweep. Midd 8-5.
#1 singles: Lubomir Cuba (Midd) vs Grant Urken (Bowdoin)
Regular Season Result: MIDD 6-4, 0-6, 6-2
NESCACs Result: MIDD 6-4, 7-6
NCAA Finals prediction: Two very close matches, with big swings both ways, and I’m expecting nothing less tomorrow. Urken is one of the biggest serves in DIII, but Cuba is one of the best returners. Both guys tend to play quicker points, so if this match comes down to the wire, I don’t see this one ending unfinished. I’ll give Cuba some revenge for dubs. Midd, 4-6, 6-2, 6-4.
#2 singles: Noah Farrell (Midd) vs Luke Tercek (Bowdoin)
Regular Season Result: MIDD 6-4, 7-5
NESCACs Result: BOWDOIN 3-6, 6-4, 6-2
NCAA Finals prediction: A split of the two matches from earlier this spring means you shouldn’t be surprised when I dub this yet another swing match! Both guys qualified for Individual NCAAs later this week, and while Farrell’s style seems like it should work pretty well against Tercek, Luke took the match at NESCACs. However, Noah is 5-1 against Luke in his college career, so though BLT has been playing well, I’m still going with the numbers here. MIdd, 7-6(4), 6-4.
#3 singles: William de Quant (Midd) vs Kyle Wolfe (Bowdoin)
Regular Season Result: MIDD 7-5, 4-6, 10-6
NESCACs Result: BOWDOIN 6-1, 6-4
NCAA Finals prediction: Another match where our gladiators split their two previous contests. Both seniors, both so steady, but Wolfe has been playing some of the best tennis of his career of late. His dismantling of Tsai today was really something, and while I think this one will be closer than their last match, I like Kyle to get it done when it matters most. Bowdoin, 6-4, 7-6 (5).
#4 singles: Kyle Schlanger (Midd) vs Jerry Jiang (Bowdoin)
Regular Season Result: MIDD 6-4, 6-2
NESCACs Result: BOWDOIN leads 7-5, 2-6, 2-0
NCAA Finals prediction: Schlanger got a HUGE win over Bouchet today, and deserves big props for it, even with a very funky scoreline. Jiang also played well in his semifinal, fighting back from a set down to force a third with Yuan before the match was called. Two very good players, but Schlanger has been a cut above for the season. Midd, 7-5, 6-3.
#5 singles: Nate Eazor (Midd) vs Gil Roddy (Bowdoin)
Regular Season Result: BOWDOIN 7-5, 6-1
NESCACs Result: BOWDOIN 4-6, 6-2, 6-3
NCAA Finals prediction: The only spot that Bowdoin won both times, you’re going to have to do a lot to make me pick against Gil Roddy at this point. The dude beat David Liu twice today, including a straight-set singles win. He has clinched countless matches for the Polar Bears and is their strongest spot. He is a senior, with NCAA championship experience, playing in the final match of his career. GIVE ME THE CLINCH. Bowdoin, 6-7 (3), 6-4, 6-3!
#6 singles: Andre Xiao (Midd) vs Justin Patel (Bowdoin)
Regular Season Result: MIDD 6-4, 6-2
NESCACs Result: BOWDOIN 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 (over TVG, not Xiao)
NCAA Finals prediction: Xiao beat Patel the only time they played this spring, however that was indoors at Midd. The Panther freshman looked quite human today against Rubinstein, while Patel has had a knack for playing three set matches recently. This could be viewed as a swing match, but Patel is also the favorite (even if only slightly). Bowdoin, 6-3, 3-6, 6-3.
FINAL MATCH PREDICTIONS:
D3NE: Bowdoin 5-4
D3Reg: Midd 5-4
CHB: Midd 5-4
DIIIWest: Bowdoin 5-3
AS: Bowdoin 5-4
newD3Central: Bowdoin 5-1
D3RegionalNEC: Bowdoin 5-3
GURU: Midd 5-2
Thanks for the excellent preview!
Thank you!