Chicago @ CMS – QF Preview
As we continue on our Quarterfinal preview path, our final matchup in our way is shaping up to be a barnburner. Chicago and CMS, two of the most consistent teams of the past four years, with so much singles depth they could ride a horse, are set to do battle in Claremont. Based on seed, this should be the closest quarterfinal, but neither Slam Tennis nor TX College Tennis’ algorithm predicts that. While Slam sees a close match, CMS wins 65% of the time, TX believes CMS wins almost 82% of the time! You’ll see that the bloggers believe this to be a much closer match, with four of the six bold predictors taking CMS, and five of the six saying the match will go down to 5-4! Given people’s predictions for the Midd/Whitman and Bowdoin/Wash U QFs, let’s hope we get a good one here. You might be wondering, D3NE, why are you even here, your teams are in the other three QF matches. Well, my therapist says I have issues with both boundaries and trust, so here we are. Luckily, newD3Central and DIIIWest are here to give real insight, while I merely try to pick some winners.
Slam Tennis Comparison: https://slam.tennis/compare/ncaa3m/702
TX college tennis algorithm: CMS wins 81.6% of the time
#1 doubles: Kerrigan/Kumar (Chicago) vs Gordy/Parodi (CMS)
newCentral: Kerrigan & Kumar have rekindled their doubles relationship and have given Chicago their ultimate cerberus of a doubles lineup. They had a slip up (or rather, Augustana took a W) against Augustana but have defeated: CMU x 2, Emory, and NYU since getting back together. This relationship faces their toughest test in 2018 with a matchup against a tested CMS 1 doubles team. I think that Parodi and Gordy will be in every single return game, and that built up pressure will eventually lead to a late proset break. Gordy will account for 10+ volley winners and CMS takes the point. CMS: 8-6
DIIIWest: Two great doubles teams here where I see this match definitely going down to the wire. Gordy and Parodi have tons of momentum, especially after their Ojai crown. Kerrigan and Kumar are fantastic players in their own right and will come out fired up and ready to go right out of the gates. I think Gordy/Parodi is the better doubles team right now and because of that, will come up a bit more clutch than their opponents. One break early in the pro set where the Stags ride this one out to victory. CMS: 8-5.
NE: Throwing my hat in the ring here as I think this is a semi that is truly up for grabs. In toss-up matches, go with experience and CMS has the edge there. CMS 8-6.
#2 doubles: Raclin/Yuan (Chicago) vs Burney/Katzman (CMS)
newCentral: At the beginning of the year, during the middle of this year, and I’ll even go as far as to say at this very moment: I think that this could be a national title match. Ignore the 2 next to their position, these are two of the best doubles teams in the country and will be decided by which rock is stronger. Yuan and Katzman will be the cross court rally to watch with Burney and Raclin looking to get involved. I think that Raclin & Yuan win this 6/10 times. However, I think the occasion will empower the Stags to a doubles lead. CMS: 9-8(9)
DIIIWest: Raclin and Yuan are huge ball strikers and can really hit their opponent off the court. Raclin has a big serve and with Yuan’s groundies, I see this as a formidable duo that will be tough to beat. Katzman and Burney have had a very successful year at this spot, but I see the Maroons stepping up and taking the chances when they matter most. Chicago: 8-4.
NE: Both teams have been very good this year, and this is a big-time swing match. I agree with newCentral that I think the moment could get to Yuan more than Katzman as the home crowd can get rowdy in Claremont. CMS 8-6.
#3 doubles: Chua/Liu (Chicago) vs Liu/Park (CMS)
newCentral: Chua and Liu only have two matches together this year, but they’ve spent a lifetime playing together in Southside Chicago, so I don’t think they’ll be any communication concerns (they used to play together). Liu and Park are also a relatively new team with six consecutive victories to their credit. CMS would love a sweep – who wouldn’t – but I think that country’s best three doubles team keeps Chicago’s dreams alive – they’re both seniors after all. Chicago: 8-4
DIIIWest: What a court here. Four great players and maybe the highest level of talent on this #3 doubles match compared to their other doubles matches. Chua and Liu are going to come out swinging away and appreciate the moment as this could each be their last college match. However, Liu and Park have been playing great doubles all year and because of that experience and that winning momentum, I see the Stags stealing this one in a tiebreak. CMS: 9-8
NE: Chua and Liu at #3 is filthy, if Liu is fully healthy. I still have my reservations about that, and Liu/Park have been playing well, but there is too much talent on the Maroon side to go against them. Chicago, 8-5.
#1 singles: Eric Kerrigan (Chicago) vs Niko Parodi (CMS)
newCentral: It’s no secret that I (and let’s be honest, you should too) believe that Niko is the best player in d3 right now. On his day, he’s better than everyone and when it’s not his day…he’s still better than most. Kerrigan is (in my opinion) not Chicago’s best player but I can see how he finds himself at 1 with a classic early 2000s American game style and a deep run to last year’s individual semifinals. Kerrigan is a good player, but this year hasn’t been able to produce the goods against the nation’s best: Losses to Alhouni, Levine, Cassone, Levine again show this. Kerrigan can theoretically take the racket out of your hand by blasting away, but i don’t think he could do it successfully off of Parodi’s groundstrokes for two sets. CMS: 6-1, 6-4
DIIIWest: Niko has been known to take some days off and as a result, has had some head-shaking losses. However, this is Nationals time and Niko shows up this time of year. Last year, he went on an amazing run taking out Cuba in that epic team semifinal, taking out Manji of Emory, and then winning 6 more matches on his way to the finals of the individual nationals. He is better than every single one of his opponents when he wants to be and this coming weekend, I am sure he will bring his A game and try to match the steak he put on last year. Sorry Kerrigan, but you’re in the hands of Parodi and I see him playing his best tennis to take you out in two straightforward sets. CMS: 6-2, 6-3.
NE: Kerrigan has the ability to beat anybody, but Parodi is, in my humble opinion, the best in the country right now. CMS 6-3, 6-1.
#2 singles: Nick Chua (Chicago) vs Jack Katzman (CMS)
newCentral: “You don’t beat Nick Chua the first time you play Nick Chua” That’s a wild claim right, but that urban legend had to have come from somewhere. So we did a deep dive – in Nick Chua’s D3 Career, only twelve players have defeated him in singles on their first try (Krimbill, Hudson, Alhouni, Butts, Farrell, Leung, Deuel, Mosestick, Hewlin, Parodi, Setter, and Kronenberg). Katzman is surely of the quality of the Chua 12, but there must be something about playing Chua – that unique combination of discipline and “KOBE” must make players uncomfortable out of the gate. Katzman has shown otherworldly concentration and grind this year, but it may not matter against the shotmaking of the senior. I’m going to go ahead and make the first claim canon and give Chua a signature win in this postseason. Chicago: 6-4, 7-5
DIIIWest: Nick Chua has had a very up-and-down senior year where he started off by struggling at the top of the lineup. Since moving down to #2, he has found his form and regained the confidence we are all used to seeing from him. Katzman, on the other hand, is as steady as it comes and will give Chua a real tough test. I think the way Katzman plays will disrupt Chua, and slow courts in the sizzling sun will only aid Katzman in this one. CMS: 6-4, 6-3
NE: This is going to be a GRIND of a match, and if it goes all the way we could see these guys battling it out for the 5th and final point. Homecourt is one thing, but a senior with NCAA experience against a freshman takes precedence. Chicago, 6-4, 3-6, 6-4.
#3 singles: Luke Tsai (Chicago) vs Oscar Burney (CMS)
newCentral: I think that these are the two best threes left in the country. I think that this match will be decided by whomever gets to set the terms and pace of the match. If Tsai can make it all about consistency, grit, and endurance then I give him the edge, but if Burney can make it about holding serve, big shotmaking, and a few points here or there then I think he can take the racket from Tsai. Tsai doesn’t lose often, and I think that the senior steps up here and gets Chicago one point closer to the Final Four. Chicago: 6-7 (4), 7-5, 6-2
DIIIWest: As newCentral said above, I definitely see these two as some of the best threes in the country. Both have had tremendous years and unfortunate that one of these great players is going to have to lose. I think if these two played each other 10 times, it would be an even split. However, in the quarterfinals of nationals, I am going to give the slight advantage to the senior, Tsai, in this one. I think he is going to be too steady for the Stag transfer and take this one in a hard fought battle. Chicago: 7-5, 6-4.
NE: Two of the five best #3’s in the country should provide a great battle. Burney rarely gets rattled, and loves the support of the crowd. However, Tsai also doesn’t really get rattled, and should continue what has been a truly stellar season. Chicago, 6-2, 7-6 (2).
#4 singles: Jeremy Yuan (Chicago) vs Julian Gordy (CMS)
newCentral: Gordy one of the leaders of this Stag team has gone undefeated at 4 in d3 play this year, but faces his toughest test in the central’s most impactful, but second-best first year: Jeremy Yuan. I predicted earlier that Yuan would go undefeated this postseason (a 2 doubles loss foiled that prediction), but I still believe that Yuan’s groundstrokes and court positioning makes him a tough matchup for everyone. Chicago: 6-4, 1-6, 7-5
DIIIWest: Match to watch here. Gordy hasn’t lost a match all year at this position and Yuan made quite the statement this fall as a freshman by taking the central region ITA. I see this match going the distance and Gordy prevailing in the end simply because deep down, I think he wants it more. His will to win will shine deep in the third as the Stag will find a late break to seal a victory. CMS: 6-4, 7-6, 6-4
NE: When reading the blurbs from newCentral and DIIIWest I was surprised to learn that Gordy was undefeated at #4 this year, but it’s true. His only DIII losses this spring are to Roddy and Watanabe. Gordy doesn’t strike me as an amazing singles player, but the results speak for themselves. CMS, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3.
#5 singles: David Liu (Chicago) vs Daniel Park (CMS)
newCentral: David Liu, if he’s good to go, is the best five in the country. You gotta believe that if Coach Tee puts him in that he’s good to go, and with that premise in mind I have to go with the Chicago senior. He’s the veteran with the highest upside on this roster. I think that he clutches it out against Park, but drops a set due to Park’s quality and it being his third ish match back. Chicago: 4-6, 6-3, 6-0
DIIIWest: David Liu was one of the best 1’s in the country just last year and the fact that he has made his way into the lineup so quickly after a nagging injury shows he is finding his form. He is a DANGEROUS #5 and can really hit anyone off the court at this spot. Park, however, is no gimmie and is seen as one of the best 5’s in the country. Park could play at the top of the lineup at 98.7% of schools and succeed! This match is going to come down to who handles the pressure better when the match gets close. I think the Maroon and his years of experience playing at the top will help him out in this one. Chicago: 7-5, 6-3
NE: This is really tough to gauge, because I just don’t know how fit Liu will be to play a big/long match in the sun with everything on the line. That being said, I’d trust him as much as any Maroon to get this done. Chicago, 6-2, 6-4.
#6 singles: Charlie Pei (Chicago) vs Avinash Vemuri (CMS)
newCentral: I touched on this in our profile of this matchup, but this could be the match – right here. Pei and Vemuri have both been lights out at 6 this year, and are examples of two different ways to play 6 for an elite program. Pei was a highly touted five star recruit that began his career at 3 and 4 but has since slid down to become a rock at 6, while Vemuri was a diamond in the rough three-star that Settles and Co.have groomed into a national caliber 6. The match within the match here is Pei’s backhand and Vemuri’s forehand: two strengths that these players have built their respective games around. I think that Vemuri will do it big for player development and keep CMS in it. CMS: 7-5, 7-5
DIIIWest: Both of these players have played great tennis at their respective positions this year. Vemuri has really surprised me this year and he made a statement this past fall by making the semis of the ITA. Pei is an incredible ball-striker and will fight tooth and nail for this one. Vemuri’s backhand can sometimes get a tad shaky, whereas Pei really swings for the fences and goes for his shots. In this battle of nerves, I think Pei’s style of play will hold up better and because of that, I see him taking out Avi. Chicago: 6-2, 7-5
NE: Before the season you would have taken Pei 10/10 in this matchup. However, Vemuri has impressed this year and we’ve seen him win big matches on his home court before (see Midd). A close one here, but I’m going gut and taking Avi. CMS 6-3, 1-6, 6-4.
MATCH PREDICTIONS
DIIIWest: CMS def. Chicago 5-4
newD3Central: Chicago def. CMS 5-4
AS: CMS def. Chicago 5-3
D3NE: CMS def. Chicago 5-4
AVZ: CMS def Chicago 5-4
D3RegionalNEC: Chicago def. CMS 5-4