NCAA Regional Preview: CMS Region
No. 5 CMS
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 92%
Power 6 Rating: 75
How they got here: Well, the Stags haven’t lost an inter-region match this year and they were once again able to dominate SCIAC play to capture their 13th conference title in a row. If by some reason the Stags were unable to secure a pool-a bid (an upset loss to Pomona Pitzer in the SCIAC final), they would have absolutely seized a pool-c spot with their wins over Gustavus, Middlebury, and Wash U.
Why they can win: CMS is the most talented team top to bottom out of the four teams competing. They have beat Trinity (TX) and UCSC this year both at ease and if Tyler is able to take out the Tigers in the first round, I see the Stags taking care of business against the Patriots. A monstrosity of an upset would have to occur in this region if a team other than CMS makes their way to the final 8. 92% may be me feeling over-confident in CMS’s abilities of moving forward past this weekend, but I don’t see the Stags having any trouble in their first two matches of nationals. Two 5-0 wins for the Stags are expected.
How they can be beaten: CMS isn’t as dominate as previous years and a young lineup could get the best as them as they head into nationals. Katzman, Avi, and Gordy in singles have never competed in a national championship match and the pressure could get the best of them. If CMS comes into each of these matches flat and goes down in doubles, any three of these teams can find two singles wins to secure the upset. The Stags are no longer immune to a doubles sweep and both Texas teams and UCSC can all play serious doubles.
Player to watch: Jack Katzman. This freshman started off his year on absolute fire by sweeping both his singles and doubles matches at indoors. If Katzman finds his dominating ways once again (not that he hasn’t won most of his matches), the Stags become that much more of a deeper team, both on the singles and doubles court. CMS is deep at the bottom of the lineup and they have one of the most talented ones in the country in Parodi. If Katzman can be a lock at #2 in singles, the Stags will be tough to take out.
TRINITY TX
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 2%
Power 6 Rating: 68
How they got here: By winning yet another conference title. The Tigers haven’t had the most storied year with an onslaught of losses to teams who aren’t even in the national tournament. With that being said, they were able to find their best tennis in conference play and ultimately were able to secure a pool-a bid.
Why they can win: Trinity can pull off a couple of wins due to the fact that they can play solid doubles. The Tigers have always been known for coming out hot and taking 3-0 leads. Though we haven’t seen that so much this year, they could find their doubles domination this coming weekend to take out Tyler and scare CMS. With a first round match against Tyler, a win against a talented Patriots team could give this San Antonio team enough confidence and momentum to really go for it in what would be a round of 16 encounter against the Stags.
How they can be beaten: The match against UT-Tyler is a huge match for each team. The Tigers could come out flat and nervous in a huge match they are supposed to come out ahead in and find themselves at the losing end of this match. Trinity (TX) beat the Patriots this year 7-2 and if they are able to take down the Pats, they will be a huge underdog against the Stags. As likely as they are to take down their Texas rivals, they are even more unlikely to take down CMS, sorry, just my opinion.
Player to watch: Wilson Hamilton. I’m intrigued to see how the freshman will handle the nerves of the big stage. In what will most likely be the biggest match of the year for Hamilton, it will be interesting to see if he can take down Fagundes for the second straight time. This match for Hamilton has way more on the line and I see the strength of the Tigers lineup starting with the freshman at the top.
UT-TYLER
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 1%
Power 6 Rating: 68
How they got here: By winning their fifth straight ASC conference title. The Patriots seem to have a formula down when it comes to taking care of conference play!
Why they can win: The Patriots have won 21 matches this year… that is a ton of wins! Though Tyler hasn’t played a team the caliber of CMS, they sure know how to win and come out on the winning side of most the matches they play. This team is full of confidence and good vibes and for this reason, they could use this winning momentum to take out Trinity(TX) and pull off the upset of all upsets against the Stags.
How they can be beaten: With a ton of victorious matches this year, the Pats are still the weakest of the four teams in this regional tournament. In my opinion, they’d lose to CMS and UCSC at this point in time, however, they’ll only have to play one if they can win their first round. Tyler is the underdog in each of their matches… Sorry fellas, but I don’t see this team pulling off two upsets this weekend.
Player to watch: Alvar Andres. Andres played #6 in conference play and has yet to lose a match this year. He has been playing towards the bottom of the lineup all season and has dominated play throughout. He is the anchor for this team and he provides a ton of depth for the already deep Patriots team. If he gets the nod to play at the #6 position, I’m excited to see if he maintains his undefeated season.
UC-SANTA CRUZ
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 5%
Power 6 Rating(s): 70
How they got here: Cruz is the highest ranked team outside of a conference or a conference with less than 7 teams (pool b). Thanks for the lesson, CHB. Cruz deserves a shot in regionals and I look forward to seeing how they compete against the best team in the west.
Why they can win: Santa Cruz is a damn good team and their depth and talent have been on full display this year. They haven’t had that one marquee win that would have propelled them into a top 15 team, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t belong in that class. This team is known for having a rather strange schedule, I hope now that they are a legit squad, they’ll face higher ranked teams in the future in hopes of catapulting themselves high in the rankings. I do think they have the best shot, outside of CMS of course, for getting through this region. Is it farfetch for them to take out the Stags? Yes. Can they? Absolutely. They challenged the Stags to a close match this year and Leduff and Stone have solidified themselves as some of the best singles players at their spots in the west. Cruz can play inspiring doubles as well with a solid 1 team in Dugan/Stone. If Cruz can head into singles with a 2-1 lead, Leduff can take out Parodi for the second time this year, and Stone can continue his dominance at #3, that is 4 points right there ladies and gents. Can this upset happen? Yes.
How they can be beaten: Despite an impressive season, the Slugs are a mere 4-9, with one of those wins coming against a Redlands team that no offense, was barely a formed team this year. There hasn’t been a ton of “winning” this year and that could cost them against a very successful and confident team in CMS. Again, despite a promising year they’ve had, I don’t think the Slugs truly believe deep down they can pull off the upset. I could be wrong.
Player to watch: Chad Stone. The senior is having his most successful season as he has the best record on the team at #3. Stone took out Burney in their matchup last month and I see Stone being the Slugs’ best shot at a singles point. If Stone can maintain his level of play on both the singles and doubles court, he gives Cruz a shot at pulling off the upset. What a way that would be to go out for the senior.
When will GAC preview be up?