The Central ‘Sitch

I was grocery shopping the other day and someone’s textone was the Kim Possible “whats the ‘sitch” tone and it stuck with me all day leading to this intro. The central region’s top ten is an amalgamation of teams poised for long postseason runs, teams enjoying the R&R of offseason, and some teams still vying for spots in the big dance. This is a quick run through of what the region’s top ten have been up to with a dash of NCAA qualifying musings by yours truly. And as penance for missing the regular season awards article, I added my would-be answers in shorter tweetform. Look for the Blog to bring heat as we round the corner into the offseason. Also apologies, this turned out a lot more dossier (I’ll restart using pictures when I can find some as quality as the Trinka one in the Sibling Bracket Rd. 1 Pt. 2 article) than I anticipated – here’s the central ‘sitch as I see it.

Ranked Teams (ITA Regional Order Apr. 26th): What have y’all been up to recently?

Gustavus: Gustavus begins their MIAC title defense this Friday – a title they’re expected to defend seeing as they’ve won the last seven. Coach Valentini – Coach of the year Nominee – is seeking his 200th win, and some momentum as GAC heads into the postseason in the central’s pole position for the first time in a long time. Gustavus may qualify two players for individuals, but more on that later. Gustavus, with their victory over UChicago, has done all that they need to garner a 1 seed and hopefully a manageable regional but the Committee (and not ASouth, unfortunately) will decide that. The end of Gustavus’ season cools down due to all of the MIAC matches, but I don’t expect this team to lose a step – this GAC team littered with impact seniors so I think they’ll be more than ready for a deep postseason run.

Chicago: Chicago won their FIRST UAA Championship, ever. EVER. Jeremy Yuan continues to strengthen his claim for the Rookie of the Year with his undefeated UAA weekend, but the real test for the Maroons comes now. Chicago has been dubbed a championship-caliber team (at least talented enough) for the past couple of years and no opportunity is better than the present. Chicago will carry a roster with possibly four senior starters, all who have been impact players since Day 1, that will try and add to Chicago’s year of firsts. Chicago wouldn’t shy away from another regional matchup with Gustavus but they’re probably hoping that Gustavus’ quality play all year coupled with their UAA championship will separate the two central titans. Chicago, like many of the teams in the tournament, will keep their eyes on the NESCAC tournament to see who joins the Field.

Wash U: Treasure Chests for the Bears. Wash U overcame Brandeis in a tough 5-4 opening round, but fell a little short against a Jamison-Led Emory team 4-5 in the semifinals. Neves continues to be hot and with is wins against Cassone and Downing this past weekend, he should be a lock for individual play with his senior: Johnny Wu. Wash U has nothing until NCAAs begin, but their eyes will be towards the Northeast as results could impact their eventual seeding and Pool C placement. Wash U seems to be getting healthy at the right time – Haugen and JJ back – and will hope to avoid either Chicago / GAC in their Region, more from ASouth on that later.

Kenyon: Kenyon won the NCAC title to, let’s be completely honest here, no one’s surprise at all. While the NCAC as a whole is increasing in quality, Kenyon came out and had a banner year. Their top three showed that they could compete with any trio in the country (2-1 against CMU 1-3) and utilized senior leadership at the bottom of their lineup in a fashion the Lords rarely do. This Kenyon team was led at the top by underclassmen (Diehl and Zalenski went undefeated in conference, Diehl in D3) and it was fitting that the metaphorical NCAC changing of the guard was put on full, gritty display with Diehl’s 6-0 in the third clinch over Denison’s lone senior. Kenyon’s stock is bullish, their bench mob are bullies-ish, and this is a team that no top team wants to see in their Regional.

Denison: It might be a couple more years before Big Red Trains are able to skrt along Ohio undisturbed. This is an entirely different Denison than in years past, so expectations for the future must be recalibrated. While this class is one of the best Denison has had in a long time, it’ll be very important to see if they all follow their NCAC big-brothers “Zalenski and Diehl” in undefeated sophomore campaigns. This Big Red lands at five in the region on the backs of Kzoo’s upset over Case, and find themselves in an opportune time in the central to separate from the 6-10 pack this upcoming year. The season is over for Denison, but a pretty good season it was.

Kalamazoo: The Streak is over, technically. Kalamazoo showed it’s class and heart in their upset victory over a Case team that we now know is not down, nor out. Kalamazoo’s core is exceedingly young and a year without postseason play (in a place where that was never a consideration) should ignite a fire on this team to come into 2018-2019 with a vengeance. Return of The Hornets.

Case Western: A weird year for the Spartans culminates in a classically loud, debatably unsportsmanlike, and quintessentially gritty Case upset win over a HOT Brandeis. Case’s season is over since they have less than an outside shot at Pool C and no doubles teams or singles players in a likely position to qualify. The Spartans upset over Brandeis prevents their season from ending with a bitter hornet upset in their mouths, and gives faith to the Case Western faithful that this year was an anomaly – not a return to an old norm. Case loses one of their most consistent players in the past five years (though his best moments and wins were his first year) but hopefully return a group of players ready to buy in to Todd’s system and are some noise next year. Case’s best players are only juniors (Kanam and Concannon) and their doubles is also built around youth; Case should be trending back up next year – time will tell.

Carleton: If Carleton, despite all their improvements, shook the magic 8-ball of the MIAC they’d 100% get, “Outlook not so good.” However, Carleton’s 1st year phenom: Leo Vithoontien is in a prime position to qualify for individual nationals, which would be Carleton’s first competitor in a minute. Vithoontien and the Knights will likely play the Gusties in the final in a rematch of their 1-8 loss this regular season. Kevin Mei nearly derailed Ekstein’s individual hopes with his 6-1, 6-2 drubbing of the senior, but this next matchup could see Ekstein slide up to 1 and make a last-ditch push for qualification, more on that below. It’s been a banner year for the Knights and they seem ready to become mainstays here in the regional top 10.

Oberlin: The season ends for our perennial 42 with a second consecutive 3rd place finish in the NCAC and their highest national ranking in a long time. The Yeomen failed to challenge Kenyon or defeat Denison the two times they played them this year falling: 6-3 and 5-1 to end the year, but they were able to secure their first win over a nationally ranked team with their beatdown of Hobart. That win coupled with their ongoing dominance over the middle-region teams continues to buoy Oberlin to the national rankings. They graduate their second consecutive “best class ever” and will rest their national hopes on a sophomore trio that shined all year.

Coe: Coe’s season will ultimately always depend on the IIAC conference tournament. They’ve run through the conference (8-0) and bested their toughest opponent Luther in rather routine fashion. Coe maintains their tenth position by besting UWW 8-1 despite a 4-5 loss to a Grinnell team. When Coe – shakes magic 8-ball** – “most likely” wins the IIAC, their future depends on the committee’s or ASouth’s (not really sure anymore) decisions on Regional Placements…By the time this goes out they should have won their conference and guaranteed another NCAA berth. 

Singles Individual Rankings (NCAA Rankings) Check in: As it stands, these are the automatic qualifiers from the central region with the next crop being left to duke it our for wildcards. I’ll comment on the lockability of these various competitors and weigh in on the central’s hopes for individual supremacy.

Mohanad Alhouni (GAC) – A top four seed in our siblings bracket and a likely top four seed in the individual tournament when the draws come out. Mohanad has put together a clinical season in singles and doubles all while leading GAC to the top spot in the central region. Aside from a refusal to compete in nationals, I don’t see a way that Alhouni doesn’t qualify and this weekend he could step off the court and give fellow Sr. Ekstein an opportunity for another signature win. LOCK: 100%

Johnny Wu (Wash U.) – Wu’s win over Alhouni is the only credit that he’ll need to qualify this year. His victory over Chua doesn’t hurt and more or less cancels out his 6-10 TB loss to Kerrigan. Johhny Wu won’t miss the tournament and as shown in his Jemison match at UAAs – he’ll be a player you’ll want to avoid if you’re aiming at a deep run. LOCK: 100%

Jacob Zalenski (Kenyon) – Zalenski doesn’t have a loss in-region, which more or less solidifies his spot in the tournament. Zalenski held down the top spot and he (along with Diehl) created a 1-2 punch that makes Kenyon as dangerous as ever. Zalenski can hit a missile-like forehand from anywhere, which makes him a dangerous out for any player – I think Zalenski returns to Gambier an All-American. LOCK: 100%

Leo Vithoontien (Carleton) – Vithoontien is an unsavory spot of being playing GAC where a win will marginally increase his likely chances of qualifyin, but a loss could feasibly knock him out. While I think a loss to Ekstein could be absorbed (not that it should be), a loss to Alhouni does nothing to hurt his resume. Vithoontien’s best hopes of staying put are winning over Ekstein (duh) or ending doubles close necessitating Alhouni stays in the match. Chance that buttered toast lands butter side down: 62%

Nicolas Chua (Chicago) – Wins over Rotnov, Neves, and Fojtasek keep Chua afloat in the tournament. His losses all (except to Wu) fall out of region, so Nick should find himself in the tournament – will he be the only Maroon is a tougher question. Rebuttal Shots: 95%

Bernardo Neves (Wash U.) – A loss to Chua keeps Neves near The Brink (A shame HBO cancelled this show), but his otherwise undefeated season keeps him in the draw even if he somehow slides out of the top seven considering his out-of-region wins over: Downing, Cassone, Hillis, etc. Neves deserves to be in the tournament and must be sure to thank Wu’s for his solid central region play. Likely, v likely: 80%

Brady Anderson (Coe) – Anderson sits on the final automatic spot, but without any big win opportunities left in the IIAC he can only get in at 7 or not at all. Anderson should stay in the final spot unless some Ekstein over Vithoontien shenanigans happen. However, the committee has also shown a bias towards big school players, which will also go against Brady here – somehow it’s an uphill road despite the fact he’s the last spot in. Robber in Catan: 17%

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Erik Kerrigan (Chicago) – Kerrigan continued his rough out-of-region play at the UAA tournament barely salvaging a 1-2 weekend at 1 against NYU, Emory, and CMU. Kerrigan’s win over Wu likely keeps him this close to qualification and it will depend on whether the committee is going to penalize Kerrigan for his loss at 3 to CMU and the fact he only has seven matches at 1 this Spring. I think that the committee prefers big-name schools to an extent and will reward their team success with a second player in the tournament – especially if Ekstein is able to jump into the 7 spot, giving Kerrigan less comparable in-region competition for a wildcard. More likely than not: 62%

Zach Ekstein (GAC) – I’ve alluded to this a couple times in the article, but Ekstein’s hopes for individuals rest squarely on defeating Vithoontien in the finals while Alhouni sits. This would likely have him boot Anderson out of the 7th automatic spot and place Anderson on the very uncomfortable bubble. – Requires a couple of pieces to fall into place: 30%

Luke Tsai (Chicago) – Unfortunately for the Tsaiwalker, his losses to Ekstein and van der Sman will offset his otherwise spectacular season and prevent Tsai from qualifying. That probably doesn’t matter to him half as much as the team title and Tsai will bring reckoning at 3, I foresee it. nah: 3%

Austin Diehl (Kenyon) – 20 and 0 in the Spring but due to the “curse” of having a great 1 that allows you to chill at 2, Diehl will miss the tournament. If #TitasWatch was still in effect, then Diehl’s case would be stronger considering his 2 and 0 destruction of the Scot’s Watch. Diehl and Zalenski will wreak havoc on the central over the next two years from their Lordly perch atop the NCAC, expect Diehl to qualify next year or win ITAs (he seems like a fall tennis grinder) but he won’t join his doubles partner this year. It’s gonna be a no from me: 2%

Doubles Individual Rankings (NCAA Rankings) Check In – Overall Thoughts from OG Central: Without any realistic up-or-down movement for our three automatic qualifiers, we need only inspect the hopes of our wildcard team(s).

1. Alhouni & Whaling (GAC) – LOCK: 100%
2. Reifeis & McAuley (Wabash) – LOCK: 100%
3. Haugen & Kozlowski (Wash U.) – LOCK: 100%

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1. Raclin & Yuan (Chicago) – This could be the first time that a two doubles team not only qualifies over their 1 doubles team, but also could be a seeded favorite to win the whole tournament. Their may not be a better wildcard resume in the past ten years of d3 individuals, and it would be a shock (and a disservice to the idea of wildcards) to see Raclin & Yuan miss the tournament. – LOCK: 99%

Regular Season Exit Survey Questions that I may or may not have missed: tweetform

Coach of the Region: A toss-up between Tee and Valentini – but I gotta go with the man who’s leading the number 1 team in the region…VALENTINI

MVP of the Region: The best team in my region is led at the top of doubles and singles by arguably the best singles player and doubles team in the country…give the man his props: Mohanad Alhouni.

Freshman of the Region: Jeremy Yuan, duh.

Most Improved in the Region: Neves moved up from 5 to 2 remaining more or less undefeated. Ekstein may give GAC two singles qualifiers. Zalenski and Diehl couldn’t lose all year. Denison is at 5 in the region now. It’s tough but I’ll crown Bernardo.

Seniors to Watch at NCAAs: The Chicago and Gustavus rosters, all of them: collectively they’ll go above .500 in big-time matches.

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