Happy Saturday, boys and girls. With the day’s matches finishing up, it’s time to look ahead to Sunday’s matchups and check out the scenarios. To demonstrate just how committed I am, I had even written a small blurb about Hamilton at Williams, but now that match has been “postponed.” Postponed to when? I have no idea. My guess is 2019. There are two big NESCAC matches tomorrow, with a third that should serve as a de-facto 7th place match. If all the favorites win, we’re in for the tiebreaker scenario I discussed earlier in the week, with a 3-way tie between Bowdoin, Middlebury and Williams, each of whom is 1-1 against the other two. That leaves Amherst and Wesleyan as the 4/5 quarterfinal matchup, and Bates drawing the loser of the three-way tiebreaker in the other quarterfinal. However, given the NESCAC’s history of making things difficult, let’s take a look at Sunday’s slate of matches.
NR (though they should be) Colby @ #18 Tufts, Sunday 10:00 a.m.
Importance for Colby: This is Colby’s last chance to get into the national rankings this year. I’ve said this throughout the past couple days, but I still don’t totally understand why they are unranked now, but then again there are bigger problems with the most recent batch of ITA rankings. Especially considering that Ali and Gupte no longer appear to be in Tufts’ lineup, this is as good a chance as Colby has had through NESCAC season. A win wouldn’t put Colby into NESCACs, but it would move them up to 7th, which is as high as I can ever remember them finishing in the conference standings!
Importance for Tufts: A good way to end their season/send off their seniors. After falling to Bowdoin today, there isn’t really any argument Tufts could make to leapfrog Bates for NESCACs. Given the disappearing act of Gupte and Ali, going out with a win would at least give the other seniors, Battle, Brogan and Coran, who also happen to be the team’s three captains, a happy farewell.
Upset potential: It’s certainly there, and my percentage might be higher than some others would have it, but Tufts still has the definite edge. 29% upset potential.
Individual Implications: Sorkin is the only one playing in either match who has any sort of shot at NCAAs, but I think that’s probably gone after a straight-set loss to Urken earlier today.
Prediction: Tufts def Colby 6-3
#8 Amherst @ #1 Middlebury, Sunday 11:00 a.m.
Importance for Amherst: After Herst’s loss at Williams earlier today, the Mammoths can no longer win the NESCAC regular season (it was a very long shot anyways). However, a win over Midd would make this year’s NCAA seeding arguably the most confusing it has ever been. Before we even get to that, it would put Herst above Midd in the conference standings by virtue of their head-to-head tiebreaking victory, and give the Mammoths the No. 3 seed at next weekends conference tournament, and indirectly give the conference crown to Bowdoin (if they beat Wes), who would have the tiebreaker over Williams. Moving up to 3 and taking the conference title away from their archrivals?
Importance for Middlebury: The Panthers need to win to keep their shot at a regular season title alive. Or, forgetting the regular season title, which really only means so much, their hopes for a bye at NESCACs…which would evaporate with a loss (as long as Bowdoin also beats Wesleyan). Between the Polar Bears, the Ephs, and the Panthers, all three could make an argument as to why they deserve the tiebreaker and the top two seeds/bye. Logic says Midd would finish 3rd in a tiebreaker, but it’s pretty slight and I’m hesitant to trust logic after last year.
Upset potential: Amherst is a good team, very capable of making a quarterfinal or (whispers) possibly maybe a semifinal run run at NCAAs, but Midd has been playing the best tennis recently of anybody since the CMS team that won the title a few years back. Plus the match is at Midd…14%
Individual Implications: Cuba and Wei should both be locked into NCAAs at this point. Farrell can’t lose here if he wants any shot at NCAAs. In fact, moving him up to take on Wei if Midd sweeps dubs is intriguing. Midd’s top dubs team should be into NCAAs now as well, and this is the continuance of a last ditch effort for Herst, which began today with a win over the Williams top team (though not the regionally ranked team as Barr was playing doubles over Indrakanti).
Prediction: Middlebury def. Amherst 7-2.
#3 Bowdoin @ #12 Wesleyan, Sunday 12:00 p.m.
Importance for Bowdoin: A win for Bowdoin and they are guaranteed no worse than a share of the regular season title. Again, my three-way tie prediction is for Bowdoin to get the 1 seed, Williams the 2, and Midd the 3 based off their results against out of region teams, but that is by no means a lock. If they do beat Wes and get the top seed at NESCACs, the Polar Bears would guarantee themselves a semifinal berth, and likely no lower than a top-5 seed at NCAAs. Get to the conference finals, and they should be top-3!
Importance for Wesleyan: I don’t think this one matters all that much for Wesleyan…NOT (don’t you all miss 2005?) Wesleyan needs two wins out of its next three matches in order to have a shot at NCAAs, and this is a great opportunity. I believe that the Cards are locked into the No. 5 seed at NESCACs, so the result of this match doesn’t change the fact that they will take on Amherst at Amherst in the first round of the conference tournament (if Midd beats Herst as well). A win over Bowdoin and a win at Amherst and then all you Fried Fanatics would have something to talk about.
Upset potential: It’s certainly there, but I still think Bowdoin is a level above the Cards. 24%
Individual Implications: Chen and Urken are both definitely making it, however Finkelman and Tercek is a BIG BATTLE. I don’t see Bowdoin ducking this match, especially after Lil’ Barr fell to Ma today in three sets, the winner of this match should go into next week as the #7 seed while the loser should still be the #8 seed, with Farrell as their closest competitor. Honestly, I think all three of those guys should make it, but you never know with the wild cards. In dubs, Wes lost to Colby today so they are out. Bowdoin should be in at this point, but a loss here and a loss to another mediocre #1 team at NESCACs would at the very least bring them back down to the competition.
Prediction: Bowdoin def Wesleyan 6-3 (but not that close of a 6-3)
Did I miss anything? Have any questions about a particular scenario? Want to make fun of my predictions. You know what to do.
Regarding Williams/Hamilton: I don’t know why that match was “postponed”, but I can speculate that one or both teams were uninterested in going through the motions for a 9-0 or 8-1 thumping as their last match of the season.
I don’t know how the details would work, but it would be nice if there were a mechanism for two teams to agree that a match “wouldn’t count” for standings purposes, which would allow the stronger school to put forward a weaker lineup (where, for example, the six-man UTR of the stronger school matched the weaker) so that the match could be competitive. It would be a better experience for everyone if the kids got to play competitive matches (without consequence for rankings/standings) instead of non-competitive ones (which benefit no one).
Match cancelled due to norovirus going around Hamilton. Sensible of Williams and other schools Hamilton plays in other sports to keep things safe. Sending good health vibes to the Hamilton tennis teams and to the whole campus.