NCAC Conference Tournament Round 1

The NCAC conference tournament is upon us! I just wanted to preview the first round and give some thoughts on each of the qualifying teams before the festivities begin on Friday. The Blog will be featuring conference tournament coverage as the weekend (and following week) continues – look back for my thoughts on the semifinal matchups as decided by Friday’s matches.

1 Seed: Kenyon

There are probably a fair amount of Ohio middle schoolers (we’ll call this the Generation Purple) who have never seen a non-Kenyon team hoist the NCAC trophy at the end of the season…and Coaches Thielke and Cheng will make sure that the status quo is maintained. Kenyon is in the midst of an exciting year that has them back near the top 15 on the backs of their triumvirate: Zalenski, Diehl, and Paolucci. (Any nickname ideas here? @ The People) This team defeated the 2 seed Denison (9-0) and the 3 seed Oberlin (8-1) this season already, and while conference tournaments add an entirely differently level of pressure, the Lords are and will remain the NCAC favorites until they lose in conference.

2 Seed: Denison

We all were expecting a mcconaissance here in Granville: a massive overhaul of the conference’s status quo, a brand new Big Red poised to lead us into a new era, a year where 3+ freshmen starters could lead a revolt against Kenyon’s Lordship…Kenyon proved us all to be a bit hasty. Denison made moves this year, don’t get me wrong – they defeated Kalamazoo (6-3), avenged their loss to Oberlin (6-3), and arguably jumped Case in the region (Kzoo def. Case 5-4). Denison is making their push and should only get better with this massive infusion of youth (one senior in the starting lineup), but it’ll take their very best day to defeat Kenyon. Denison is expected to meet up with Oberlin in the semis – in a rematch of last year’s third place match and last weekends 6-3 victory (three 3 setters).

3 Seed: Oberlin

While predicted to be the three seed at the year’s begininnig, it’s weird to see anything other than a 4 next to Oberlin. Oberlin had a program year in 2016-2017, and after graduating five seniors from that class they buckled down and had an even better year this year. Their front-loaded schedule helped them squeeze into the rankings: ITA and our superior blog rankings. Oberlin will play a Depauw team that they haven’t seen since their semifinal loss last year (Depauw won 5-3 after a doubles sweep). Both teams (Depauw especially) will look very different from their last match, but expect Oberlin to get through with a little Riggle room before setting up another date with the Big Red.

4 Seed: Wabash

William Reifeis & Patrick McAuley. These two STUDS ended the year undefeated at 1 doubles with an absolutely treacherous schedule filled with like 72 matches a week. While they had their ups and downs as singles players, these two came out and showed their class every single time they played. Wabash will play an OWU team that they defeated last time, and should be favored to  win their first round for the first time in a minute. Wabash would then play Kenyon in a match that could reinvigorate Kenyon’s claim to Individuals (with a win at 1 dubs and continued tinkering by Jay Tee). Kenyon will be heavily favored that is a fact, but do you know the other certainty? Wabash Always Fights – lets see how much the Little Giants want it at “home” in Indy.

5 Seed: Ohio Wesleyan

OWU has felt like they’ve been on the precipice of being in the 3-6 NCAC conversation for a while, and now with a date with Wabash in the first round they’ve set themselves up to shock the world and finish in the conference’s top four – it’s been a minute for them as well. OWU is led by Fukamachi who has developed into one of the premier grinders in the region (think Johnny Wu Lite) and should make life difficult at 1 doubles and singles for his opponents. OWU faces an uphill battle against Hutch’s boys but it’s not an impossible journey by any means (5-4 either way).

6 Seed: Depauw

Depauw has only gotten better since their near loss to Earlham (5-4 win) at the beginning of the year. Their schedule has been grueling – it’s done a number on their record but it’s also battle-hardened Riggle’s Youngsters quickly. This team lost to OWU (2-7) immediately after overcoming a doubles sweep from Wabash (5-4 win). That OWU result is likely not indicative of the actual quality difference between the two teams; Oberlin drew the toughest first round of the top four seeds with Depauw.  Depauw will be the underdog, and will likely lose to Oberlin but could shock the Yeomen who must travel to Indiana in a matchup of the third and fourth best teams in the conference.

7 Seed: Wooster

While my #TitasWatch has ended, Bera could lead this team to a fifth place finish should they band together and win the middle and lower spots that have troubled them all year. Bera is one of the best players in Wooster’s recent  history (maybe, I don’t actually know) and could come out of nowhere to qualify for nationals by winning out (again maybe, I don’t know). Denison is heavily favored to defeat them in the first round, but after that they should expect 50-50 matches the rest of the way. Wooster may not have the depth to compete with the top dogs in the region, but Titas and co. have laid a foundation on which Wooster’s tennis culture can be built.

8 Seed: Allegheny

In a conference with nine teams, it’s sort of savage to have an eight team tournament, no? Allegheny punched a ticket to their big dance with a 6-3 win over Wittenberg. This is not the Allegheny of Pat Cole, or even the Allegheny of Thomas Manning…this team will most likely end 8th but making the tournament is something to hang your hat on when your team’s Power 6 is 7-10 points below your contemporaries. Though a 4-5 loss to Wooster would make their possible matchup later in the tournament something to watch as Allegheny attempts to beat their seed.

Senior Shoutout:

While the Headmaster,  Mr. Perfect Week, elected to give his senior superlatives and shout outs before the tournament (and rest of season) actually finished, I think I’ll leave mine for the end of the season to see how each of these senior’s careers finish up. So worry not(not that any of you would actually worry): Ben Gelfand, Peter Hazlett, Michael Liu, Weston Noall, Alex Reiger, Max Smith, Jamie McDonald, Michael Drougas, Manickam Manickam, Robert Gittings, Levi Kimmel, George Go III, Kirill Ivaschenko, Nicholas Pollock, William Refeis, Shouta Fukamachi, Elliot Garwood, Alex Lutz, Jakraraj Rungaseng, Jacob Volbers, Sean Carroll, Michael Kolbus, Titas Bera, Andrew Long, Niall Kneerim, and Jai Redkar your time to get your first or fiftieth quip from the Blog will come.

First Round Matchup Thoughts:

An eight team tournament has a tendency to give us a couple of lopsided first round matches and the NCAC tournament will keep that trend alive. Both Kenyon and Denison will likely end 5-0/1 with the closer matches remaining unfinished due to the superior depth of the Lords and Big Red. Kenyon and Denison have gotten used to very comfortable first round matches over the past couple seasons and I believe that will continue here in 2018.

Where Kenyon and Denison have enjoyed leisurely starts to the NCAC tournament, Oberlin not only has battled in every first round (almost always against Wabash) but they’ve drawn arguably the fourth best team in the conference as the 3 seed. Had Depauw not played OWU after a draining victory over Wabash then Depauw would’ve been the four seed: their rightful spot. Depauw plays a very aggressive doubles style that’s fueled by their Hoosier athleticism and they’ve historically paired that with disciplined singles 1-6. While Oberlin doubles has been a positive for them this year, they’ve – for better or worse – been able to rely on different doubles teams to get their points every match. This Depauw team is very young, and this is a big opportunity for them to show that they belong back in the national conversation, but I think that the Yeomen take a doubles lead and closes out the match before it has an opportunity to get too hairy. Last time Oberlin and Depauw played, Depauw swept doubles but then were swept at the top 3 singles spots near simultaneously to carry a 3-3 scoreline into 4, 5, and 6 singles. I’m not predicting a sweep either way, but should one happen don’t count out the sweep-ie…Depauw’s already overcome one sweep this year.

The 4-5 match between OWU and Wabash will be the most exciting match of the first round (as the 4-5 match should be). I’m going to take a page out of D3AS’ book and feature a microwave match-by-match preview of this match considering how close I believe it will ultimately be.

#4 Wabash vs. #5 OWU:

1 Doubles: Reifeis & McAuley vs. Fukamachi & Hibbard

I’m not going to be the one to vote against the number 1 doubles team in the region. Reifeis and McAuley were wrongfully dropped down to 2 in the region, and I think they come out with a statement win on their home courts. BASH

2 Doubles: Denning & Greenwell vs. Venegas & Rungaseng

I think that Wabash has a very good opportunity to sweep doubles, but this would be the toughest match on the way to that endeavor. Perhaps, not the toughest because OWU’s 1s are scrappy and have never been an easy out by any means, but I think that this is Wabash’s weakest doubles teams of the three and OWU could steal this. BASH/OWU

3 Doubles: Pollock & Ivaschenko vs. Volbers & Duarte

I’ll put my faith in KI’s massive serve to give Wabash the 2-1 or 3-0 lead going into singles. BASH

1 Singles: Reifeis vs. Fukamachi

This is where things start to get a little hairier for the Little Giants. Refeis has the game to beat anyone in the conference – somthing he’s shown time and time again – but I think that Fukamachi will be able to get one more ball in play than Refeis can as he wins in three sets. OWU

2 Singles: McAuley vs. Venegas-Vargas

McAuley has taken some lumps this year on the singles court, but has some great performances sprinkled in. Venegas-Vargas is similar, in that he’s erratic but uber talented. Both of these boys can hit the p*ss out of the ball, it’ll be interesting to see who brings their best stuff tomorrow. BASH/OWU

3 Singles: Greenwell vs. Hibbard

Unfortunately for Wabash, I think that these next four spots all favor OWU. Hibbard is just a little better overall than Greenwell, and their strengths matchup too well for Greenwell to ride a skill mismatch to victory. OWU

4 Singles: Ivaschenko vs. Garwood

No one wants to see Garwood across from them. This senior has made a career in frustrating his opponents by any means necessary. He’s a counterpuncher of the highest order. While KI should win this match handedly, I think that Garwood – with his back against the wall – pulls a rabbit out of his hat and upsets KI. OWU/BASH

5 Singles: Pollock vs. Alevizopolous

With Giannis going off tonight against the Celtics, I’m going to go with his fellow countryman: Alevizopolous. Pako is far more consistent than Pollock, and I think that Pollock won’t be able to hit Pako off the court for two whole sets. OWU

6 Singles: Go III vs. Duarte

GG3 has been the people’s champ and heart of Wabash ever since he joined the team. Unfortunately for him, Duarte’s forehand is too much of a weapon for GG3 to overcome and I think that Duarte defeats Go unless George can find a way to keep Duarte uncomfortable around the baseline. Duarte will probably be too much for the hometown hero. OWU

So if you’re keeping score (which we always are), I’ve given OWU 4 victories, Wabash 2 victories, and left three matches as closer to 50-50s. I think that this match will end 5-4 and the swing matches will probably be: 2 doubles, 2 singles, and 4 singles. It’ll be close and The Blog will make sure to give you their thoughts as results roll in.

-newCentral