NESCACs Update/The Maine Event Preview

Happy Tuesday, boys and girls. It’s UAA Week here at The Blog, which means I have to work extra hard to keep up with enough Northeast coverage to mitigate the inevitable UAA=best chatter from some of our bloggers. That being said, you should really check out D3AS’ ridiculously dope preview (seriously, that’s what he calls it) bc it’s pretty ridiculously dope. Anywho, with Bates’ recent wins over Tufts and Colby, the NESCAC conference tournament field is becoming increasingly clear. However, there is still almost a full week of conference tennis to be played before the six berths to the conference tournament are revealed. Here is we stand now, what is most likely to happen, and a few best/worst case scenarios. Don’t worry, there’s also a mini Bates @ Bowdoin preview at the end of the article as well. First thing’s first, a reminder on how teams are selected for NESCACs:

PRIMARY CRITERIA

• NESCAC win-loss record (Note: if teams play each other more than once during a season, the last match played during the academic year will be counted as the conference match in the conference standings)
• NESCAC head-to-head with tied team(s)
• Wins/losses against other common NESCAC opponents
• NESCAC strength of schedule (Tournament Committee will rank order the teams in terms of strength of schedule)

SECONDARY CRITERIA

1. NESCAC win-loss record against any team in contention for selection where the primary criteria do not provide a clear rank order (“tied teams” defined as any team with at least one win against the field in consideration)
2. Head-to-head results
3. In the event a tie cannot be broken between two or more teams or a head-to-head result is not available, the following procedure will be used (in priority order):

• Results vs. common Division III non-conference opponents
• Results vs. ranked Division III teams as determined by the NCAA at the time of selection
• Division III SOS & win-loss percentage in Division III (considered together)
• Results vs. common non-Division III opponents
• Latest NCAA Regional ranking

BOWDOIN

Current seed: 1st

Remaining schedule: vs Bates on Wednesday, at Tufts on Saturday, at Wesleyan on Sunday

Projected NESCACs seed/matchups: 1st seed due to secondary criteria in the tiebreaking procedure, will play the winner of the 4/5 matchup (likely Amherst/Wesleyan) in the semis.

Best NESCSCs projection: No 1! If Bowdoin wins out I believe they should get the No. 1 seed. Even if Williams and Middlebury win out as well, all three should be tied atop the standings. Given that they all beat each other and every other team in the conference, the tiebreaking procedure would work us down to common DIII opponents. At that point, Bowdoin has beaten both CMS and Chicago, which put them above both Midd and Williams, each of whom have lost to one of those teams.

Worst NESCACs projection: Absolute worst case? Bowdoin loses all three matches, ends up falling all the way down to the No. 6 seed (yes, i think this is possible, just extremely unrealistic). More likely worst case is that Bowdoin loses one of their three remaining matches and ends the year as the No. 3 seed, meaning they would likely have a rematch with Bates in the NESCAC quarterfinals.

MIDDLEBURY

Current seed: 1st

Remaining schedule: vs Amherst on Sunday

Projected NESCACs seed/matchups: 3rd seed due to tiebreaking procedures. As I said before, Bowdoin gets the nod for their wins over CMS and Chicago. Midd falls to #3, even though they have a win over Emory, because they lost to CMS, who lost to Williams. If that isn’t enough, once Bowdoin is out of the tiebreaker, the committee may resort back to head to head, in which case Williams goes over Midd by virtue of their 5-4 win earlier this year. Midd would likely draw Bates in the quarters, dispatch the Bobcats with ease, and take on Williams in the semis.

Best NESCACs projection: No 1 seed. If Williams loses to Amherst this weekend, and the Panthers take care of business then Middlebury will get the top seed due to their head-to-head win over the Polar Bears.

Worst NESCACs projection: No. 4 seed. Midd only has one match left, so even with a loss to Amherst this weekend the Panthers will still sit with only two losses in the conference, meaning the farthest they can fall is #4. Technically it would be a tie for 3rd, but they would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with Amherst

WILLIAMS

Current seed: 1st

Remaining schedule: vs Amherst on Saturday, vs Hamilton on Sunday

Projected NESCACs seed/matchups: 2nd, through the tiebreaking process mentioned above in the Bowdoin and Middlebury blurbs. Assuming Williams and Midd have the same result against Herst, the CMS win keeps the Ephs above the Panthers. This means a bye and very likely Midd in the semis.

Best NESCACs projection: No. 1 seed! A Bowdoin loss to Bates, Tufts, or Wes combined with Eph wins over Amherst and Hamilton would give Williams the top seed no matter what happens to Middlebury, as Williams would own the tiebreaker.

Worst NESCACs projection: A loss to Amherst combined with Midd and Bowdoin winning out would put the Ephs down to the No. 4 seed given they would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Mammoths.

AMHERST

Current seed: 4th seed

Remaining schedule: at Williams on Saturday, at Middlebury on Sunday (woof).

Projected NESCACs seed/matchups: 4th seed. Herst proved most of the bloggers wrong with a great win at Wesleyan last weekend, but playing at Williams and at Midd should be another level of difficulty. If they finish as the 4th seed, the Mammoths would very likely get a rematch with Wesleyan in the quarterfinals.

Best NESCACs projection: If Herst wins out, there is still a chance that they could end up being the overall No. 1 seed. It would take Amherst beating Williams and Midd, AND Bowdoin losing TWO of its remaining three matches (vs Bates, @ Tufts, @ Wes). If that happens, Amherst would tie with Midd and Williams, but get the top spot because they will have beaten both teams.

Worst NESCACs projection: Losses to Williams and Midd won’t hurt Amherst all that much. In fact, given their wins over Bates and Wesleyan, and the remaining schedule, I’m not sure there is a way that the Mammoths can finish anywhere lower than the No. 4 seed.

WESLEYAN

Current seed: 5th seed

Remaining schedule: vs Colby on Saturday, vs Bowdoin on Sunday

Projected NESCACs seed/matchups: No. 5 seed and should get a rematch with Amherst in the quarterfinals, which the Cards will need to win to have ANY hope of making NCAAs at that point.

Best NESCACs projection: I think the best Wes can finish is the 4 seed, which would happen if Bowdoin loses two of its final three matches, and Wes wins out. In that scenario, the seeding order would be Williams over Midd (head to head), Amherst, Wesleyan over Bowdoin (head to head), Bates. In that case Wesleyan would get another shot at Bowdoin, whom they would have just beaten, and a second win would be enough to get them into NCAAs.

Worst NESCACs projection: A loss to Colby and Bowdoin probably doesn’t change anything. Technically Wes would have more losses than Bates (assuming Bates loses to Bowdoin), but that’s because Bates didn’t play Williams. It’s not out of the question to think that Wes could somehow end up the No. 6 seed in that scenario though.

BATES

Current seed: 6th seed

Remaining schedule: at Bowdoin on Wednesday, vs MIT on Friday

Projected NESCACs seed/matchups: 6th seed, which means the Bobcats will most likely take on Middlebury in the first round. However, it’s still very possible they will play another of the conference top dogs, like Bowdoin or Williams in that NESCAC quarterfinal.

Best NESCACs projection: If Bates beats Bowdoin, it’s technically possible they get the 4th seed next weekend. In order for that to happen, Bates needs Bowdoin to beat Wesleyan, but lose to Tufts (as well as Bates). That would tie Bates and Bowdoin with three losses, and both would be one ahead of Wesleyan with four (NOTE: Bates didn’t play Williams this year, which would likely be a loss, but who knows what the committee will do with that).

Worst NESCACs projection: After beating Colby on Monday, Bates should be locked in as the 6 seed. That being said, I thought Tufts was locked in last year. So if Tufts beats Colby & Bowdoin but Bowdoin beats Bates, who really knows?

TUFTS

Current seed: 7th seed.

Remaining schedule: vs Bowdoin on Saturday and vs Colby on Sunday.

Projected NESCACs seed/matchups: N/A. If Tufts does somehow get the #6 seed, they would play the #3 seed in the tournament quarterfinals.

Best NESCACs projection: It should be 7th…

Worst NESCACs projection: 8th, if the Jumbos fall to Colby on Sunday.

COLBY

Current seed: 8th

Remaining schedule: at Wesleyan on Saturday, at Tufts on Sunday

Projected NESCACs seed/matchups: N/A

Best NESCACs projection: Probably 7th, but given what a surprise it was that the committee took Bates over Tufts last year, I’m including them on the list still. Plus, otherwise I would likely get an earful from Shaw Speer.

Worst NESCACs projection: The Mules have locked in a top-8 finish, which in future years might be good enough to qualify for NESCACs!

TRINITY CT/CONN COLLEGE/HAMILTON

Sorry to the fans of the Bantams, Camels and Continentals, but none of these three teams have any shot of making NESCACs. Hamilton does still play Williams and Conn took on Wesleyan earlier today, but even if somehow both won those matches, all it would do is make this weekend’s battle between the two for 9th place instead of 10th. Trinity has finished their NESCAC schedule, and will finish 9th unless one of those two aforementioned upsets take place. Now onto the quick Wednesday preview.

#24 Bates @ #2 Bowdoin, Wednesday 4:00 p.m.

Storylines: I have already talked about NESCAC seeding enough for one article. In terms of NCAA seeding, only a Bates win would change things. Bowdoin’s seed would take a hit and might drop them as far as a middling top seed. Bates likely needs to win NESCACs at this point to make the tournament, but a win over Bowdoin and a run to the tournament finals might also do the trick. In addition, this is a rivalry match. Bowdoin doesn’t necessarily consider Bates their biggest rivals, nor should they given the discrepancy between the two schools over the past few years, but you can bet the Bobcats circle this date each year. What’s more, Bates has actually beaten in three of the past four years, which is kind of amazing given that Bowdoin won a National championship during that timeframe and Bates hasn’t risen past the top 15.

How Bates can win: It starts with doubles. Bates plays good doubles, but Bowdoin plays better doubles so this will be a tall task. Rosen always gives Bates a good shot to win at #1 singles, and after that my guess is #4 is Bates’ best chance for a point given Jiang’s struggles this year. A doubles sweep and wins at 1&4, would that it were so simple, Bobcat fans.

How Bowdoin will win: Take a doubles lead and this one is over. Even if they go down 2-1, the Polar Bears, will be favored at five spots, and favored heavily at four different spots. Bates played without Yadav earlier this week at Colby, and without him the Cats are just one man deeper into the rotation, which makes beating the likes of Roddy and Patel/Wang all that much more difficult. Bowdoin’s most likely path to victory comes from taking a doubles lead and bringing home three of #2/#3/#5/#6 without too much trouble.

Individual implications: #2 Urken vs #5 Rosen, #7 Tercek vs Quijano, #1 Terk/Urk vs #4 Rosen/Kauppila. First things first, these rankings are pretty outdated now, as the guys have played a full two weeks of matches since the past rankings. Look for new rankings on Thursday, which will be the final ITA rankings before NCAAs. Obviously the prime showdown is Urken vs Rosen. Urk has taken a few losses of late, but both of these guys should be good to make NCAAs. Tercek just got a big win over Barr, so he should be feeling pretty good, but as a #2 guy he can’t afford any losses to unranked players. Finally, the doubles. Bates’ top duo lost to Wesleyan last week which should hurt them, but a win over Bowdoin would put them squarely back on the bubble!

Prediction: Bowdoin def Bates 7-2