(Ranked) Central Weekend Rules Everything Around Me

Central. Rules. Everything. Around. Me.

AS: So I don’t want to steal any of NewD3Central’s thunder because the dude straight up kills it, but just as an FYI I will be providing some “implications” for some of these important matches so you all know how these matches can affect the national conversations regarding the NCAA tournament. That is all. Oh, and CENTRAL RULES EVERYTHING AROUND ME.

D3RegionalNEC: I actually do want to steal some of NewD3Central’s thunder because he just swooped in and started covering my teams. One the one hand, I’m glad he’s seeing the excitement of the regionally ranked Central teams, but on the other, who am I left to cover? D3Tree has the Loras’s and Ripon’s of the world locked down, so I’m without a niche. It’s really a bit of an existential crisis. Hopefully the new guy still lets me have my say. He shared this post with me, so that’s a good start at least! Anyway, on a more serious note, with NCAC action really getting rolling, there’s plenty of keep track of, both in terms of the team results (i.e. can anyone challenge Kenyon? Is Wabash going to finish top 4?) and perhaps more interestingly in terms of individuals (#TitasWatch, Reifeis/McAuley, Leo from Carleton, etc). So with all that’s going on, it’s only right that we cover this stuff from multiple angles with multiple bloggers.

newCentral: A mini intro since there are a ton of words to follow. As alluded to by NE/C and AS, this is a huge weekend in the central that warrants looks from multiple bloggers since the results of this weekend will shape the NCAA picture in a major way. The following two days: 13th and 14th are previews for the central’s ranked teams with Sunday’s matchups being previewed later this weekend.

 

April 13th 2018:

(3) University of Chicago vs. (8) Gustavus Adolphus College: April 13th 2018 @ UWW 

The top two dogs in the central region jumpstart the Wisconsin weekend by playing on the first day – makes sense considering it’s the arguably most important match of the weekend for both. Chicago comes in as the number three team in the country according to the ITA Rankings committee and our much more nuanced and obviously much better  Power Rankings. Gustavus currently ranks 8th in the country per ITA (7 according to the real rankings) and could make a considerable jump with a bounce back (9-0 loss to CMS last time out) win here.Chicago is looking to avenge their untimely exit from last years national tournament at the hands of the Gusties, and while the opposing Gustavus team will look nearly identical except for some spot shuffling and the Man, Myth, and Legend: MASON BULTJE. Gustavus took a 2-1 lead the distance and rode the efforts of their top three to a nail biting 5-4 upset. I think that a doubles lead will be equally important this time around, but I highly doubt that Gustavus sweeps the top three singles positions this year – but you can see what I think below.

While my degree of certainty for the Gustavus lineup couldn’t be any higher, the exact opposite is true for the following U Chicago lineup. My assuredness in the U Chicago lineup wavers violently because U Chicago currently has two starters (Kerrigan & D. Liu) out that could be reintegrated into the lineup very soon and they have also played so many different Maroons at 4-6 singles so your lineup guess is as good as mine.
Assuming that neither Liu nor Kerrigan is back for the first day these are the matchups that I believe will determine the match between U Chicago and GAC (this could look very different with either of those bois back in the lineup). It’s hard not to giggle when you see the amount of ranked players competing in this match – as expected for the top two teams I suppose. There are oodles of ranking butterfly effect storylines that could transpire this weekend, so we’ll unpack those at the conclusion of the weekend.

 

Lineups: (Rankings are Central Region)

1 Doubles: (3) Nick Chua & Ninan Kumar v (2) Mohanad Alhouni & Patrick Whaling 

After starting the year hot with seven consecutive victories, Chicago’s 1 Doubles has cooled off going 2-3 over their last five matches (Emory, Wash U, P-P, Bowdoin, and Williams)…not exactly easy matches, but it doesn’t make me believe that they’ll pull off the upset (Yes, I think that Alhouni and Whaling are the favorites here). It will be an uphill battle for the Maroons, and I think that they’ll come up short against the more experienced pairing of Alhouni and Whaling(55 matches together). Aesthetically, this should be a pleasing match with two lefties, four shotmakers, and Chua’s backhand. GAC 8-5

2 Doubles: (4) Jeremy Yuan & Tyler Raclin v (14) Tommy Entwistle & Chase Johnson

This match would inch Entwistle and Johnson closer to a nationals berth considering (6) Kenyon, (9) Denison, (11) Depauw have all fallen this week already. Chicago can round out a resume for the ITA/Small College Champions that chill here at 2 Doubles with a win here coupled by stellar performances by Chua and Kumar this weekend. These opportunities won’t mean anything if a team doesn’t rise up to seize it; not only does this match carry massive individuals implications, but I think that it will also be the swing match for the doubles lead (can’t pick a sweep either way…that’s wild). I think that Yuan is going to rise to the occasion of the weekend and the first-year will pave the path for the Maroons in a weekend highlighted by some of the central’s best upperclassmen. Raclin and Yuan have the pedigree, the talent, and the gumption to seize a doubles point against GAC, and I think that they prevent the Gustavus sweep in the most grandiose of fashions. U Chicago 9-8(8)

3 Doubles: Charlie Pei & Bobby Bethke v Zach Ekstein & Mason Bultje

I guess my preview for 2 doubles sort of spoiled my preview for this match. Bultje is the only player who wasn’t on the court for the Gusties massive upset of yesteryear, and I don’t think that senior is going to let the script change on his account. Bultje might be the weakest of the four players on the court, but I think that the senior comes out HOT and Gustavus rides the early lead to a victory. GAC 8-5

1 Singles: (3) Luke Tsai v (1) Mohanad Alhouni

The hottest players in the central (in no particular order) are: Bernardo Neves, Austin, Diehl, and Luke Tsai. Tsai and Alhouni face-off in possibly the match of the weekend, which has massive seeding implications for both later in the year. Alhouni has only lost to Wu and Parodi this year in D3, while Tsai has only lost to Urken. Together they’ve felled the likes of P-P, Redlands, CMU, Emory, Williams, etc, but what will happen when they face each other?? I don’t Alhouni’s loss to Wu is indicative of a “certain game style” so I won’t elect to give Tsai a boost for also being a fleet-footed grinder who last missed a groundstroke after a late-night Y2K party. Tsai has shown that his all-court savvy is equally effective at all six positions, but I think that Alhouni proves a little more courageous in the cat-and-mouse games on big points. GAC 6-4, 2-6, 6-3

2 Singles: (6) Nick Chua v (11) Zach Ekstein

Here’s another instance where a player could make a big individuals ranking jump: Ekstein could not only make it very difficult for Chicago to qualify two singles players but also give himself an opportunity to slide in to the last automatic qualifying spot. Chua took his fair share of lumps to start the year at one losing to P-P, Wash U, Emory, and CMU but has since righted the ship since moving down to 2 with wins over Tercek (Bowdoin) and Barr (MIT). That third-set tiebreak win over Tercek colors me all sorts of impressed:  think that scene in the Phantom Tollbooth where Milo meets Chroma and orchestrates the sunrises/sets but better. I think that Chua uses his under-appreciated forehand to deadly effect this weekend and creates more (open) court for himself than a midsummers day Judge Judy marathon. Chicago 6-2, 7-5

3 Singles: (13) Jeremy Yuan v Chase Johnson 

I think Jeremy Yuan will go undefeated this weekend in singles. His only loss in 2018 was to Hayden Cassone (at 4) of Emory, and he’s packed his resume with wins over quality teams: Williams, Bowdoin, P-P. Wash U, CMU…basically every team they’ve played. I think that Yuan’s ability – is it a passive? – to stay glued to the baseline regardless of the incoming pace will be vital to his successes this weekend. I think Yuan’s flat depth will be too much for Johnson, on this day at least. Chicago 6-2, 6-4

4 Singles: Charlie Pei v (19) Patrick Whaling

Right up until Pei copped this three match losing streak I was completely convinced that Charlie Pei physically couldn’t lose – especially at 6… But here at four, Mr. Pei has revealed that he is less Zeus and more Achilles following the Maroon’s California trip. Whaling hasn’t been having a remarkable season by any means – though he is ranked on the merits of his stupidly nice Indoors weekend and GAC’s general aura. I think that Pei would win this match 8/10 in a tournament setting, but here in a dual match I’m going to go with the junior who has shown that he’s willing to give it all for the GAC shield. GAC 0-6, 7-5, 6-4

5 Singles: Alejandro Rodriguez v Yassine Derbani

I’m the least sure about the starting prospect for our next two players from Chicago: Rodriguez and Sharma. I think Rodriguez has shown grit this year in a hard-fought three setter over Levin (to clinch?) and up until recently was undefeated; however, his last three matches against top ten teams have not been kind and the freshman has lost six consecutive sets: most recently a 6-1, 6-0 beating by POTW-many times over Gil Roddy. Rodriguez reminds me of Derbani in that they’ve both been exceptional lower lineup players for their respective teams…it’s just Derbani’s done it longer and I think the experience shows in one of the last matches on. GAC 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-4

6 Singles: Peter Leung v Tommy Entwistle

Entwistle highlights one of GAC’s three siblings bracket teams #shamelessplug. Entwistle has had mixed results from his matches with other top d3 teams: defeating Wash U and CMU but losing to CMS, P-P, and Emory. Leung hasn’t gotten the burn over his career that he would on any other team in the country but when he plays he shows his class, outright. Leung is one Chicago’s vocal leaders and having him on the court in singles must bolster his teammates unlike any other. Leung defeated Pomona’s six with relative ease, while Entwistle endured a two-game beatdown. I think Leung powers his way to the net and gets the Maroons a much-needed singles point. U Chicago 6-3, 6-4

AS’ Match Implications:

This doesn’t mean all that much from a Pool C perspective as Chicago has basically locked themselves into the NCAA Tournament with wins over multiple Pool C teams and a generally fantastic season. This does, however, mean A LOT from a seeding perspective at NCAAs. As you all know from my latest bracketology, the Central is very much a cluster in terms of who’s going to be seeded where and what kind of draws they will get. There is a scenario in which two of the Wash U/Chicago/GAC trio will have to play each other in the Sweet 16. Any wins over the other in the regular season push any of these teams higher in the standings to make an argument to not get the other two in their region. While it still might happen based on geography, at least we’d make a big stink about it if it actually did happen.

 

Predictions:

D3 Regional AS: U Chicago def. GAC 6-3

D3 NE: U Chicago def. GAC 5-4

newD3Central: GAC def. U Chicago 5-4

D3 AS; U Chicago def. GAC 7-2

 

(10) Washington University in St. Louis vs. University of Wisconsin-Whitewater

D3RegionalNEC: Only a few years ago this was the kind of match where UWW could really put a scare in a team vying to hold on to a Pool C spot, but this time around it’s going to be all Wash U. UWW did have one of their better performances last weekend, but since that “better performance” was a 6-3 loss to Kalamazoo, they are unfortuntaely not at all equipped to challenge Wash U. Maybe they can sneak out a doubles match (probably at 2 or 3), but that’s about it. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wash U rests a starter or two, especially if they sweep the doubles.

 

(28) Denison University vs. Wabash College

D3RegionalNEC: While Denison’s 9-0 loss to Kenyon certainly slowed down the hype train, they are still a very talented team that is a good step above Wabash. Even though Wabash always fights (#waf), Denison is favored at every position except #1 doubles. Reifeis vs Rotnov at #1 is probably a toss up, and I give the Wabash senior a solid chance to top the freshman, and McAuley is also a threat at #2 singles, but mid-lineup, Denison is likely far too strong. Down at #6 I could also see Wabash sneaking out a split or maybe even the match, but Denison is too strong for this to really have much upset potential. I’d say at the closest it’ll be 6-3 Denison. The main thing to watch is #1 doubles, where Reifeis/McAuley look to continue to stay unbeaten this spring and hold on to the #1 ranking in the region. Even with a loss they probably are still in good shape for NCAAs, but if they can continue their current run of form, a seeding at NCAAs is in their future and with that would come the first All-Americans in Wabash tennis history. AVZ is pretty excited and when AVZ is excited, we’re all excited, so go Will and Patrick! 

newD3Central: Only thing to add is that Wabash needs to make sure that the disappointment hangover from their Depauw match doesn’t linger too long because they’ll need to play well to close the year to make sure they can play the Tigers again in the 4-5 match. Will and P-Mac #NorthCentralGlobal.

 

April 14th 2018:

(3) University of Chicago vs. (10) Washington University in St. Louis @ UWW

AS’ Match Implications: Similar to the Chicago/GAC match, this match is all about seeding. However, it’s about seeding in the UAA Tournament as well. If Wash U wins this match, I am not sure if they would get the #2 seed at UAAs, but they’d have a good argument to at least get the #3 seed despite a direct loss to CMU. The 2-3 match is where you want to be at UAAs – you don’t want to be playing Brandeis or Case first round and then playing against Emory. You want all your shots to win and that means getting to the other side of the draw. Big time match here for UAA seeing implications. I’ve seen crazy things with the seeding for UAAs, so this would put even more mystery behind it.

This is U Chicago’s second top-ten test of the weekend and as AS has explained above – it will be a doozy. Both Wash U and U Chicago will be bringing different looking lineups from their battle at indoors with new matches expected on all nine courts. Chicago won last time around (5-4) overcoming a 1-2 doubles deficit with singles wins at: 2, 3, 4, and 6. Similar to the GAC match, the top singles and doubles matches will have massive individual implications that should reverberate around the region. See statements above regarding the level of lineup certainty for the Maroons.

 

Lineups: (Rankings are Central Region)

1 Doubles: (3) Nick Chua & Ninan Kumar v (7) Jason Haugen & Konrad Kozlowski

I don’t think that Chicago’s 1 Dubs’ weekend gets any better against Wash U. A playing Haugen is a dangerous one, and I think that he and Kozlowski are about to make a big push towards individual nationals here with a statement win. Not only will it impact their regional standing, but it will help set the tone for one of Wash U’s most important matches this year. Wash U will win if Kozlowski and Haugen can get their kickers out of Chua and Kumar’s strike zones then it’ll be open season for the net man, but Chicago will win if Chua and Kumar can get their returns low and pick off any meek first volleys/half-volleys. I believe that Haugen and Kozlowski will make the 16 team field at the end of the year: that runs gotta start somewhere. Wash U 9-7

 

2 Doubles: (4) Jeremy Yuan & Tyler Raclin v Bernardo Neves & Radha Vishnubhotla

Bernardo and Radha were taken to a tiebreaker by Denison’s 2 last time out (Wash U def. Denison 9-0) and lost 8-6 to GAC’s 2 the last time they played a top ten 2 doubles team. I think Yuan and Raclin are one of the best two doubles teams in the country and will continue a stellar doubles weekend with a win here. Chicago 8-5

 

3 Doubles: Charlie Pei & Bobby Bethke v Johnny Wu & Benjamin van der Sman

I think that Wu and van der Sman should win this match: they’re more talented, Wu has the best return here, and destiny loves a freshman-senior combo…but I don’t think that Chicago falls behind after doubles for a second time here in Wisconsin. Picturing Coach Tee in his best Gandalf Greys spiking a Pure Drive Down yelling, “You shall NOT PASS!” after a Chicago stab volley winner. This is is the swing match, the last match on, and I think it will go the way of the Maroons who will get one more let cord (margins are that slim) than Wash U. Chicago 9-7

 

1 Singles: (3) Luke Tsai v (2) Johnny Wu

Luke Tsaiwalker vs. John Wind-Wu (a stretch, perhaps). This match pits two of the country’s most adept grinders – though they go about their business very differently. Wu has broken three pedometers in April alone and all of that footwork has helped propel him to the number two spot in the region by virtue of getting to every ball, like ever. While Wu’s talents lie in his court coverage, tenacity, and sheer foot speed, Tsai spends his Southside days touching every single spot on the court. Tsai covers the court beautifully, but his true talent would be revealed by a heat indicator of the other side of the court: Tsai’s control is so on point that I bet he’s hit every corner of his opponents 1053 sq ft. I think this match goes the distance and I’m going to continue with the hero of the Maroon’s story. Chicago 7-5, 4-6, 6-4

 

2 Singles: (6) Nick Chua v (8) Bernardo Neves

I will not pick against Neves until he loses. He put an absolute smackdown on a very talented Mitchell Thai last time out, and while Chua is streets ahead of Thai and many of Neves’ previous opponents – I think it matters very little. Neves, like Tsai, is too hot to pick against and I think that he puts one too many balls in for Chua. Chua’s a shotmaker of the highest order, but even the best can’t hit banger after banger against a defender of Neves’ quality. Wash U 6-3, 1-6, 6-1

 

3 Singles: (13) Jeremy Yuan v (21) Benjamin van der Sman

I said it earlier and I’ll say it again…I think that Yuan will be the MVP of this weekend and come away undefeated. This is a battle between two of the region’s best freshmen, but I think that Yuan’s depth and pace will too much for the freshmen who has struggled against the nation’s best. van der Sman is very very good, but I think that this match and weekend will be a Yuan-centric story. Chicago 7-5, 6-2

 

4 Singles: Charlie Pei v Jason Haugen

The Return of Haugen. Haugen Strikes Back. Haugen 2: Reloaded. Haugen Rises. Wash U’s season looks very different with the reemergence of Jason Haugen – the 100 win club member (who will be added to the siblings bracket, sorry for the overlook) – helps to solidify the bottom of the Wash U singles lineup. Pei has looked very human since moving up to four, and me – a sucker for the narrative – believes that Haugen will defeat Pei to help keep Wash U’s upset hopes alive. Wash U 6-3, 6-4

 

5 Singles: Alejandro Rodriguez v Daniel Li

Another matchup between first-years. While, we’re still not sure if we’ll even see Rodriguez here this matchup could be troublesome for the Maroon. Li is big, strong, and solid all of which could help him neutralize the height and kick on Rodriguez’ ball that he uses to bully people around the court. If Li can withstand the forehands: inside-out and otherwise than I think he’s in business. Li will need to prevent Rodriguez from taking the racket out of his hand with his forehand and to remain level-headed after near-omnipotent winners – if he can stay up on the baseline and prevent the ball from getting too high on him then he’ll be in a favorable position. Can he do it all day though? Chicago 6-2, 2-6, 6-2

 

6 Singles: Peter Leung v JJ Kroot

Kroot was a viable four for this Wash U team, and his slotting at six just shows how much depth that this Wash U team has when Haugen is available for singles. This match should be loud enough to be heard from anywhere in the central region, so no need for live stats on this one – we’ll just wait for the louder c’mons to tell us wassup. I think that this match will feature two of the most forward-moving players on either team and will be a nice change of viewing pace. I think that Kroot is similar, if not better, than Kevin Brown who Leung lost to earlier this year and I think that he’ll follow that big everything model to great effect. Wash U 7-6(3), 7-6(6)

Predictions:

newD3Central: U Chicago def. Wash U 5-4

D3AS: Wash U def. U Chicago 5-4

OG Central: U Chicago def. Wash U 5-4

D3 NE: U Chicago def. Wash U 6-3

D3West: U Chicago def. Wash U 5-4

 

(16) Kenyon College vs. (37) Oberlin College

D3RegionalNEC: Kenyon just showed everyone that they’re still the team to beat in the NCAC, and that’s not going to change any time soon. These teams are simply in different tiers, and I don’t see how Oberlin even keeps this one close. The Yeomen don’t have any real individuals storylines either, so I’ll be honest in saying that this is not one of the matches I’m most excited about for the weekend. 

newd3Central: It will be interesting to see if Kenyon continues to build Diehl’s resume with a match against Drougas at 1. Kenyon’s 1 Doubles dropped their match to Oberlin last year that coupled with their Monday loss to OWU should have them fired up to play big and loud. If Kenyon sweeps they could run away with it but that’s no guarantee – Oberlin has been playing good doubles at home. The sophomore core of Oberlin will lead their Yeomen revolt against Kenyon’s NCAC Lordship, but I think that Kenyon is too strong this year and continues to paint Ohio Purple. Oberlin is looking towards the conference tournament and this match probably won’t impact their top three seed, but will be a nice comparable result to measure themselves against the Big Red.

 

(28) Denison University vs. Depauw University

D3RegionalNEC: How soon we forget that for years, these two teams seemed to always be ranked right next to each other in ITA and Blog power rankings. Everyone just thought of them as basically the same—second tier NCAC teams behind Kenyon that would lose 5-2 or 5-3 in the NCAC finals. We also forget (or never knew) that DePauw used to be a perennial top 10 team and was in the SCAC (Trinity TX conference). I know I’m mentioned this before, but it still just blows my mind! Anyway, I’ve said enough times that DePauw is way down this year, and I’ve also said enough times that Denison is quite talented this year, so even though these two teams have a history of close matches, the Big Red should run away with this one.

newd3Central: I don’t imagine that this will be close, but there are some wacky scenarios where seeding will matter how closely Denison plays a down Depauw. Depauw mounted an 0-3 comeback to maintain their 40+ year winning streak over the Little Giants – they’re hype, they lift, and they’re coached by a great…unfortunately they’re way too overmatched this year: Denison wins big.

 

(40) Carleton College vs. Hamline University

D3RegionalNEC: When I saw NewD3Central included this match on the list of ones to preview, I scratched my head. Hamline has losses to St. Thomas, UW Eau Claire, and St. John’s this spring, so I don’t really think there’s much to say here. Except an easy win for Carleton with nothing particularly exciting happening (unless NewD3Central knows something I don’t). 

newd3Central: I don’t. 

(40) Carleton College vs. Macalester College

D3RegionalNEC: Macalester is a bit stronger than Hamline, but basically everything I said above is true about this one as well. Carleton cruises. Honestly, the only interesting match remaining for Carleton is against Gustavus.

newd3Central: Preach Regional NE/C! I added the newly nationally ranked Carleton Knights into this preview because they are nationally ranked now, so they deserve mention even it is a passing nod that they should clean up this weekend and that GAC is the only date still circled for the Knights.

 

Conclusion:

Case v Kalamazoo, Chicago v UWW, and Kenyon v CMU await us all on Sunday April 15th. Look for the Blog’s newest friend: twitter threads to be the medium for our thoughts on those three matchups. This is an incredibly massive weekend for the central region, and its impact will be felt throughout the regional and national rankings. Look for us to unpack the happenings early next week along with updates on: Reifeis & McAuley #NorthCentralGlobal, “my #TitasWatch has ended”, NCAC seeding, individuals,  nickname ideas for Leo Vitoonthtien, and much more.

-newd3Central