Happy Friday, boys and girls, and welcome to yet another NE Weekend preview. While last week was a little on the underwhelming side, we are now finally into the meat of NESCAC season! Four matchups of top-15 teams, and two matchups of top-7 teams, this weekend is going to be the first of four consecutive doozies (including NESCACs, which are just four short weeks from now!) So many important storylines in the following five matches, with massive NCAA implications and even some unconfirmed rumors. This is where the going gets tough and the tough, well, wouldn’t you know it, the tough probably get going (funny how it works like that). These next four weeks take us to postseason play, and this weekend signifies the beginning of the end. Buckle up!
#3 Middlebury @ #5 Williams, Saturday 10:00 a.m.
Storylines: What a match to kick off the freakin’ weekend! Two teams trending in opposite directions after their recent, well publicized matches with CMS. The Panthers all of a sudden have a lot to prove, but word on the street is that they may be getting Farrell back for this match. If not this weekend, then soon after. I’m not exactly sure what that does to their lineup, but given how well Schlanger has been playing this year, it’s entirely feasible that Noah enters the lineup at #4 singles this weekend. Meanwhile Williams is trying to hold onto what would be a top-5 ranking in the next ITA release.
How Williams can pull the “upset”: You see I have “upset” in quotes here, because I don’t believe there is a real favorite in this matchup right now. I mean, we have Williams two spots higher in our most recent Power Rankings. Williams will beat Midd because they matchup surprisingly well with the Panthers. They have deeper doubles, though neither team has been cruising at #3 dubs recently, and the bottom of their singles lineup should be stronger. HOWEVER, this changes depending on Farrell. TVG playing #6 is a hell of a lot stronger team than TVG playing #4. That being said, Taylor and Kam have been playing extremely well at the bottom of the Williams lineup, and even with Midd’s full lineup Williams will have a good chance at 5/6. They will also have a good chance against De Quant and Farrell as we haven’t seen either of them play at their best yet this year. De Quant looked VERY good in spots last week against Katzman, but he was also overhitting a bit and got out-grinded by the little guy especially later in the match.
How Middlebury will “hold them off”: Cuba should be favored against Grodecki, De Quant has another week under his belt to help him get back to his regular level. Schlanger will have a much better match with either Raghavan than Lil’ Barr. Even if Farrell doesn’t play at his usual level, pushing Eazor and TVG down to 5&6 makes them both significantly stronger. On paper, Midd will still be favored at more singles spots than not, and their top two doubles teams have been pretty darn good this year.
Swing match: Gosh, which one? There are a ton here, but I’m gonna go with Austin Barr vs. Will de Quant at #2 singles. A matchup of huge strengths, and one that I think the Ephs will need to win if they are going to win the match.
Individual implications: #2 Grodecki vs #3 Cuba, #4 Barr vs De Quant/#9 Schlanger #9 Grodecki/Barr vs #3 Cuba/Schlanger. As you can see, there are a bunch of big individual matches. A loss by either Cuba or BG won’t really hurt their rankings, however the winner will have a larger margin for error later in the season (as early as tomorrow for both!). Lil Barr vs De Quant/Schlanger is probably bigger for the Midd guys than Austin’s chances. With Schlanger moving down to #3 against CMS and Farrell’s impending return, it will be extremly difficult for him to make NCAAs in singles, but a win over Barr before the lineup gets set wouldn’t hurt his chances! Finally the #1 doubles match. BG/Barr have a lower ranking because they haven’t really played any regional matches yet. A win here should vault them up the rankings, while a win for the Midd #1 team would keep them safely in the top 3, instead of the #4/#5 grey area.
Prediction: Predicting the doubles here is so tough, but I think Midd still has the edge in singles, so I’m taking the Panthers to win 4/6 singles spots and win the match either 5-4 or 6-3 depending on who has the doubles lead.
#7 Amherst @ #25 Bates, Saturday 1:00 p.m.
Storylines: What exactly is going on at Amherst? The rumors have been swirling that both Hillis and Kaplan are no longer on the team, which would be a big blow to a young Amherst team that was playing better than most of us expected. Both guys play in both facets of the lineup, and Hillis had moved all the way up to #2 singles after a hot start to the year. Kaplan didn’t play last weekend against Case/Kenyon, and the Mammoths were still fine. Bates is in that same class of team, probably rightfully ranked around #20-25 in the country, but throw that ranking out the window on their home courts. Remember that the Cats have been back from California since the end of February, training hard on their indoor courts, ready to pounce.
How Bates can pull the upset: We know they have a stud at the top of their lineup, but remember that Rosen lost to Wei in the 1st round of ITAs back in October. However, I believe Rosen should still be favored. In addition, the possible loss of Kaplan would yield a new top doubles team for the Mammoths, which would immediately make the Bates #1 team the favorite there. Quijano has been playing pretty well for Bates, and him matching up against either Ma or Bessette (who has been struggling in his own right) should give Bates a better chance than the original matchup with Hillis. Finally, given that two of Herst’s singles starters could be out, that should give Bates a much better chance at #5 and #6. Lil Yadav has had his moments at #5, but Bates has struggled at the #6 spot, losing multiple clinch opportunities in 4-4 matches. It could well come down to that again this weekend…
How Amherst will hold them off: Even with losing a couple guys, the Mammoths are still more talented than Bates. Levitin in at #5 is not that big a change, and both Bessette at #3 and Fung at #4 should honestly still be pretty darn strong for Amherst. The real looming question is what happens to Herst’s doubles now. Without Hillis and Kaplan in the doubles lineup, Herst lost two of three spots to Case last weekend. With Hillis back in the lineup, the Mammoths swept the Lords the following day. Bates’ #3 doubles team has been their weakest spot so far this year, so that bodes well for a new Mammoth team, and I think Amherst will still walk away with a doubles lead. You never want to go down in doubles indoors at Bates, because then you have to wait it out on either three or four courts (I could never quite figure out why they switched between having three and four courts at different times of the year).
Swing match: #6 singles. If Hillis and Kaplan are out, then I would project Levitin plays #5 singles and somebody like Raglin or Heidenberg plays #6. As I said above, Bates has struggled at #6 this year with the chance to close out a match, and I think this is another close one that they will need to win if they are going to pull off the upset.
Individual implications: #11 Rosen vs #6 Wei & #5 Rosen/Kauppila vs #6 Kaplan/Wei. I talked about the Rosen/Wei matchup a little bit above, but there is a revenge facet here. In addition, Rosen still has a fair amount of opportunities to move up the singles rankings, but a loss here might mean he’d need two big wins instead of either zero or one. As for dubs, while Wei/Fung should be a really solid team, they don’t have the matches yet to qualify for NCAAs. A win for Herst would go a long ways in getting them a higher start in their first rankings. A win for Bates keeps them very alive in the hunt for a Wild Card spot to NCAAs.
Prediction: Tribulations at Amherst not withstanding, I see Herst taking a doubles lead and then still being too strong in the middle/bottom of the lineup. Amherst def. Bates 6-3.
#11 Wesleyan @ #5 Williams, Sunday 10:00 a.m.
Storylines: While Wesleyan still remains in the Pool-C conversation, they are clearly on the outside looking in right now. A win over the Ephs would really muddle the situation, which is exactly what the Cards want to do. The Ephs will be coming off a huge match against Midd on Saturday, while Wes will have done battle with the Continentals of Hamilton. One of those matches is easier than the other, but at the same time one of those teams gets to sleep in their own beds and play at home, while the other has to do the van/bus ride from hell that is the trip to Clinton, NY.
How Wesleyan can pull the upset: While Wesleyan’s doubles haven’t looked that strong so far this year, neither have Williams’ duos. While the Ephs are the favorite to take a doubles lead, it would not be shocking to see Wes take 2/3 doubles. From there, Chen vs BG and Finkelman vs Barr should be great matches at the top of the lineup. It’s been a while since the Cards last played so I’m assuming they are healthier. I don’t know if that means Samson returns, but getting a healthy Eusebio and Daniels should make them far more formidable in both facets of the lineup. Wes wins this match with a doubles lead, taking a couple close matches at the top of the lineup, and relying on a vet like CD or maybe even the little Prince to come up big in singles.
Why Williams will hold them off: While Chen, Fink and Tiago are a great top 3, I think Williams should be teensy favorites at all three spots with Grodecki, Lil Barr and the elder Raghavan. In addition, it has been the bottom of the Williams lineup that has been playing so well, and the same could not be said for the Cards when we last saw them. On paper Williams is stronger in doubles and singles. Is that simple enough?
Swing match: Ugh, why did I make this a category, there are like five of them here. Any of the top three singles AND/OR either of the bottom two doubles matches warrant consideration. I’m going to go with #3 singles. Sach hasn’t been quite as much of a lock as I thought he could be this year, and I’m hoping we have a fully healthy Eusebio ready to make this one a great match.
Individual implications: #5 Chen vs #2 Grodecki, #8 Finkelman vs #4 Barr, #9 Grodecki/Barr vs #10 Roji/Carter. Like all of the matchups this weekend, there are a bunch of individual implications. Both the top two singles matches are big deals. Fink is still riding his hot fall, so a win against Lil Barr would go a long way in solidifying his ranking. The doubles are a bit of a last ditch effort. Whichever team loses here will have to have a heck of a final few weeks to merit discussion for NCAAs.
Prediction: I see this one being closer than some of my blogger colleagues who are conducting the Williams hype train, but I can’t quite pick against the Ephs either. Williams def. Wesleyan 5-4.
#3 Middlebury @ #15 Tufts, Sunday 1:00 p.m.
Storylines: How will Midd respond coming off their CMS loss and a very tough matchup on Saturday with Williams? Tufts is currently projected for the #6 spot at NESCACs, but don’t sleep on the Bos’ Pool-C chances either, considering they are still in the thick of things for now. However, they will need at least one big win against a NESCAC foe, and they only have four such opportunities over the next few weeks.
How Tufts can pull the upset: They get Midd on the second day of a tough road back-to-back, we don’t know how well de Quant or Farrell will do with the idea of playing two big matches on consecutive days, and the Bo’s get to play at home. Combine that with the fact that Sorkin has been a very pleasant surprise, and Biswas seems to be able to win every close match he plays, and Tufts on the right day would absolutely give Midd everything and then some. It will probably require a doubles lead, and then a heroic effort from either Gupte or Ali at one of the two top spots, but it certainly is possible.
Why Middlebury will hold them off: To put it simply, they should be favored at every spot. Where Tufts is strong (the top of their singles lineup), Midd is stronger. Cuba, de Quant and Schlanger (forgetting about Farrell for now) will all be favored over Gupte, de Quant, and Sorkin. Doubles is not usually a consistent strength for the Jumbos, so it won’t be easy for Tufts to take a lead and put pressure on the Panthers heading into singles.
Swing match: #1 doubles and #3 singles are both matches that I believe Tufts needs to win if they are going to pull the upset, but that’s not really the definition of a swing match, so I’ll take #6 singles. This has been Midd’s weakest point all year, and while Biswas will be an underdog on paper, he’s been playing well all year long.
Individual implications: #13 Gupte vs #3 Cuba. Less going on in this match, but a great chance for Gupte to play his way back into the NCAA conversation. The senior doesn’t have a lot to lose here, but a win would take a him a long ways, probably at least a few spots. Tufts does not have a doubles team ranked so nothing doing there.
Prediction: Tufts hangs for a while, but Midd pulls away in singles. Middlebury def. Tufts 7-2.
#7 Amherst @ #2 Bowdoin, Sunday 2:00 p.m.
Storylines: If Amherst can escape the unfriendly confines of Bates, how will their updated squad respond to a tougher challenge? Is Grant Urken healthy? What important individual matchups will we get based on who is and isn’t playing? How do the two teams with arguably the best doubles teams in the region stack up against each other?
How Amherst can pull the upset: The Mammoths have proven to be one of the few teams this year who play doubles about as well as Bowdoin. I don’t know if the same can be said given their rumored losses, and there’s no better answer than we’ll just have to wait and see, but I doubt it will help. That being said. Wei can absolutely beat Urken/Tercek, Amherst will still be quite strong in the middle of the lineup, and if you combine that with taking a 2-1 doubles lead then, and just a pinch of luck, you have the recipe for an upset.
Why Bowdoin will hold them off: If Urken plays, they are still stronger at just about every spot. While Amherst’s doubles have been a strength this year, nobody has been playing better top-to-bottom doubles than Bowdoin. Even with a full lineup, Bowdoin’s depth would be stronger than Amherst’s
Swing match: #1 doubles and #4 singles. I’m giving you a twofer here because I feel like it. Wei and Fung make a heck of a team at #1, and I’m not sold that Urken will be back. Given that, it almost seems like #1 is Amherst’s best shot at a doubles match. If Urken does play, the Polar Bear duo will be favored, but not invincible. No matter who plays #4 (Ma, Bessette or Fung) it can still be a spot of strength for the Mammoths. Jiang has some big wins for the Polar Bears, but has also taken some losses. If Urken is out, Roddy would likely step up to #4; however, he fell in straight sets in his only attempt at the spot so far (Cheng from MIT).
Individual implications: #6 Wei/Kaplan vs #1 Tercek/Urken, #6 Wei vs #1 Urken OR #6 Wei vs #7 Tercek. A lot of these matchups depend on exactly who is playing this weekend. We are assuming no Kaplan this weekend for Herst, but we don’t have a good read on whether or not Urken’s ankle sprain has healed. If he’s playing, that gives Wei a great opportunity to assert himself as a top contender for NCAAs, if not, then the singles matchup between Tercek and Wei will have MASSIVE implications, as both are hanging on already down towards the bubble. If Urken does play, it makes the top doubles match that much more important for both teams, but if not, then it matters far more to the new Amherst #1 team (likely Wei and Fung).
Prediction: Both teams could be without key guys, but Bowdoin is simply stronger to begin with. Bowdoin def. Amherst 7-2.