Happy Friday, boys and girls, and welcome to the next 5-ish weeks of my life. Now that most of my teams are back home (lookin’ at you, Midd) it’s time for every non-NE fan’s favorite Blog time of the year. NE weekend preview after NE weekend preview after NE weekend preview!!! We start with non-NESCAC conference action, which will at least keep some of you happy for now, but we end with the blockbuster matchup of the weekend! No, I don’t mean Earlham against Hanover, sadly that match already got postponed, but Midd finishes their spring break at CMS on Saturday afternoon. In addition to Midd vs CMS, we have MIT taking on a couple NE foes, and Amherst traveling to Swat to play a couple of Central powers in Case and Kenyon. If Case and Kenyon are involved, that means a guest appearance from everybody’s favorite NewCentral writer! Let’s take a closer look at what the weekend brings us. EDIT: The Skidmore/MIT match has been cancelled. Just ignore that section, or enjoy the hypothetical…
#2 Bowdoin @ #21 MIT, Friday 3:00 p.m. & #26 Skidmore @ #21 MIT, Saturday 1:00 p.m.
What’s in it for Bowdoin:
NE: The Polar Bears’ first match after spring break might be played indoors after all given the rain in Friday’s forecast, but even playing in the MIT bubble shouldn’t dampen Bowdoin’s chances of winning this match. Bowdoin has looked like the best team in the country so far in 2018, and while a loss to MIT might change that, it honestly won’t change much else besides a few rankings spots. If NCAAs started today Urken and Tercek would both qualify, but Tercek is currently hanging on the edge at #7. Given that he’s playing number 2 singles, his margin for error is slim to none, and while Cauneac hasn’t been playing his best tennis, we know he’s more than capable. Bowdoin can’t overlook a very talented MIT team, but the Engineers haven’t given us all that much to be excited about this year, and it’s tough to believe they will really push the Polar Bears.
What’s in it for MIT:
NE: Neither of these are conference matches, so they won’t make or break MIT’s NCAA hopes or anything quite so dramatic, but they both present good opportunities for the Engineers to jump-start their season and really improve their future NCAA seeding. As I said above, Bowdoin will be tough, but Skidmore should be a very tight match, and MIT will need to win it if they want to stay ahead of the T-Breds in the regional rankings (in the latest rankings, MIT is #9 and Skidmore is #10, though I don’t believe either of them are that far behind Bates who sits at #8. In addition, this presents a great chance for Tyler Barr to move up in the regional rankings. Koulouris, Skid’s #1, is #10 in the NE singles rankings, while Big Barr is down at #22. Koulouris will fall after his recent loss to Ithaca, but both guys need this win if they want to keep hope alive!
What’s in it for Skidmore:
NE: Just like MIT, Skid is still the favorite to win their conference’s Pool-A bid to NCAAs. Unlike MIT, Skidmore has real competition this year, as they just beat RPI 5-4 last week. However, this match is more about regional ranking stability than anything in the bigger picture. Both teams seem properly ranked somewhere in the #20-#25 range given their results so far this year, and both teams are looking to give their seasons a little kick in the right direction. Skid’s #1 team of Koulouris and Wynne currently sit at #2 in the region. A loss to an unseeded MIT team would be tough considering the NESCAC doubles teams only get stronger by playing each other throughout the month of April. I see Skid matching up really tightly with MIT, as both teams are fairly strong at the top, Skid plays better dubs, but MIT is deeper in singles, and you’ll see below I think that’s more reliable in terms of predicting matches…
Predictions:
NE: Bowdoin def MIT 7-2, MIT def. Skidmore 5-4
#25 Case Western vs #6 Amherst (@ Swat), Sat. 2:00 pm & #22 Kenyon vs #6 Amherst (@ Swat), Sun. 10:00 am
What’s in it for Case Western:
NewCentral: This is one of Case’s last opportunities to shock the world and start an unlikely push towards the postseason. Aside from UAAs, Case will be favored in the rest of their contests, so they won’t have any opportunities for upward mobility. A Case upset here would be a statement win for an otherwise unnoteworthy year. Case has shown that they’re a team full of grit that can – and will – play any team in the country close. As NE points out, Case and Kenyon carry a lot of players that comprise two of the more raucous bench mobs and fence-liners in d3, and they often impact these big matches in a substantial way. Case’s path to victory is slim and exceedingly clean considering the brooms that they’ll need. Fojtasek has an outside shot at individuals and the fifth-year could add even more clout to his resume with a win this weekend. In 2018, Case has been recast in an old yet familiar role: The Pool C Saboteur. They may not do it this weekend, but anything can happen at UAAs…
What’s in it for Kenyon:
NewCentral: Kenyon is vying for Ohio supremacy and with no direct match scheduled against Case their results against Amherst this weekend will suffice. It seems more people than ever are doubting the Lord’s control of the NCAC – Denison Hype Train – but the thirteen time defending champions remain firmly in the driver’s seat. I think that they’ll prove it here by playing a far better Amherst team closer than anyone can expect. I think that the overLords of Thielke, Cheng, and company will fashion a lineup poised to compete with Amherst at nearly every spot. Kenyon is peripherally looking towards NCAA, both team and individual, and good performances versus Amherst can only help the cause. I think that the Lords will take at least one of the top three singles spots with their rotating triumvirate of Zalenski, Diehl, and Paolucci (though it seems like a hierarchy is developing) and their seniors at the bottom will show up big and take another point between them. #BattleforPurple
What’s in it for Amherst:
NE: This is the Mammoths’ first match since their spring break trip, so they’ve had a good two weeks to recover and prep. While the rankings say that Herst should be heavily favored over both Case and Kenyon, us Blog veterans know better than to discount either the Spartans or the Lords. While neither win is critical for regional purposes, any loss to a team ranked outside the top-10 is extremely harmful towards pool-c dreams. With wins over CMU and Wash U, right now the Mammoths are sitting pretty and should have loftier aspirations, but a slip up this weekend at Swarthmore and things could get dicey. The Amherst freshmen were spectacular in California, but how will they perform against two of the more famous bench mobs in all of DIII? In addition, both opponents play solid doubles, so if (God forbid) Amherst gets behind, things could get very interesting. All that being said…
Predictions:
NE: Amherst def. Case 7-2, Amherst def Kenyon 7-2
NewCentral: Amherst def. Case 8-1, Amherst def. Kenyon 6-3
#4 Middlebury @ #3 CMS, Saturday 1:00 p.m.
What’s in it for Middlebury:
NE: We were going to do a match by match preview for this bad boy, but then realized it would be totally worthless if either de Quant, Farrell or both end up playing on Saturday. Midd is coming off an 8-1 drubbing of Pomona-Pitzer, after narrowing escaping the banana slugs 5-4 earlier in the week. CMS is fresh off their 5-4 loss to Williams, and will undoubtedly be looking to get back to their winning ways. Let’s not forget that this also has more than a bit of a revenge quotient to it, as CMS beat Middlebury 5-4 in the NCAA semis last year after going down 3-0 after dubs. Parodi beat Cuba and Park beat TVG, 7-5 and 6-4 in their respective 3rd sets, and the Stags got to play for the NCAA title. Parodi and Cuba will face off again, and if some of Midd’s guys are back, we could get another showing of TVG/Park as well. Midd’s doubles has looked significantly better since UCSC, and they should be able to take a lead, being favored at both #1 and #3 dubs. In singles, you know Cuba/Parodi will be a war, and both teams appear vulnerable in the same places, namely their depth, so I’m really excited to see how this one turns out. While I think Midd is more talented than Williams, I don’t like their matchup (assuming no De Quant or Farrell) in singles nearly as much as I liked the Ephs’ matchup. Midd is going to need one of their younger guys (Eazor, Vanezis or Xiao) to step up if this one stays close, and I like the Panthers to ultimate get the win in an extremely close match!
What’s in it for CMS:
DIIIWest: CMS is looking to find their winning ways in this upcoming match against Midd as they come off a surprising loss against Williams the other day. We don’t normally see a Stag team this liable, but it seems that they aren’t as depth as previous years. The bottom of the lineup is what made CMS a formidable, and simply an unbeatable team over the past few years, but we don’t see that same dominance coming from those all important singles positions. Midd, however, has that talent through their lineup and because of that, I see the Panthers taking this match. Parodi and Cuba is going to be the match to watch, as it is not only a rematch of the national championship from last year, but two of the highest quality DIII players in some time taking the court against one another. I do believe doubles could sway this match, but I believe Midd will win this match as long as they get 1 doubles match. If they get 2 or even all 3 doubles matches, I say you can count this match over. Midd’s singles is too deep and talented for CMS at this point in time. Don’t get me wrong, CMS is a winning powerhouse and Settles is able to pump his guys up for these huge matches. As a result, I definitely would not be surprised if CMS using their home courts and mental grit to take down Midd, but I just don’t see that happening this Saturday.
Predictions:
NE: Midd def CMS 5-4
DIIIWest: Midd def CMS 6-3