Happy Tuesday, boys and girls. While most of my NE teams have left the sun-soaked Cali beaches, two still remain. Sixth Street will be busy this evening when Middlebury takes on Pomona-Pitzer and Williams finishes up their spring break at CMS. Before we look ahead to tonight’s matches, let’s take a quick trip down memory lane with the week that was.
Quick recap of the NE week that was
#17 Tufts def #23 Sewanee 5-4 & #3 CMS def. #17 Tufts 7-2. The Jumbos’ spring break went about as we thought it would. They rolled past Conn and Whittier, survived Sewanee, and took 7-2 loss to CMS that was somewhat closer than the score. The Sewanee match took a gritty 3rd set win from Ben Biswas in order to clinch, as the teams split singles after Tufts squeaked by in two of three tight doubles matches. These two matches show that for now Tufts is about who we thought they were (RIP), as a team rightfully ranked between #15 and #20 in the country. More importantly for the Bo’s they did everything they needed to do in order to stay in the Pool-C hunt with NESCAC season about to begin. Tufts’ returns to the courts against Middlebury, when the Bo’s host the Panthers on Saturday, April 8th.
#2 Bowdoin def. #5 Chicago 7-2. The Polar Bears also finished their break last week, with their second 7-2 win over a top-5 team this season. Once again, the Polar Bears swept doubles, and while Yuan continued his strong singles play, Bowdoin rolled past the Maroons in the deeper parts of the lineup, impressively losing just three games total between #5 and #6 singles. Chicago will look to load up when Kerrigan, and maybe D Liu???, return, but for now just know that Bowdoin is one of, if not the best team in the country. The Polar Bears travel to MIT to take on the Engineers this Friday afternoon, and then get a potentially very intriguing match at home against the Mammoths the following weekend.
#11 Williams @ #3 CMS, Tuesday @ 8:00 p.m.
#11 Williams def. #14 Pomona-Pitzer 6-3 & #5 Chicago def. #11 Williams 5-2. The Ephs are wrapping up their spring break tonight against CMS, more on that later, but they split they’re important DIII matches so far. Both matches were closer than the final score, as Williams led the two matches remaining against Chicago, and the match with PP was 4-3 with two 3rd sets remaining before the Ephs won both. What really killed the purple cows in both matches were those pesky doubles tiebreakers. They lost three breakers between the two matches, including two 7-5 to PP, and one 8-6 to Chicago. Given their tight matches against PP and Chicago, you might expect CMS to come through without too much trouble, but as you’ll see below, I like how the Ephs match up with the Stags, if they can start winning some doubles tiebreakers!
Why it’s important: It’s important to give Williams some positive momentum going back into conference play. Look, in all honesty, even though there were big expectations for the Chicago match, by beating PP the Ephs did everything they needed to do to stay in a good spot for Pool-C. Even if they lose to CMS, if the beat Wesleyan and finish at least 4th in the conference they should make NCAAs again. That being said, playing a tight match against CMS should go a long ways in giving Williams some confidence. Plus, a win for the Ephs would get the hype train back on track and then some. For CMS, a win keeps them soundly in the top 4, no matter if their result with Midd this weekend, but a loss and you get into interesting NCAA seeding territory.
What Williams needs to do to pull off the upset: Take a doubles lead. Coach Greenberg and the Ephs are known for their doubles prowess, but they have yet to really show that in 2018. The mixing of teams was surprising, but they’ve played close doubles matches so far. Once those tiebreakers start going the other way, Williams becomes significantly tougher to beat. If they can take a doubles lead, Williams can absolutely win three singles spots. Their depth has been playing VERY well so far this trip, and we have seen their top-3 perform in a studly fashion over the course of their careers.
Why CMS will take care of business: Williams isn’t playing great doubles, CMS has a GREAT #2 team, and will be favored at each of the top three singles spots, and probably again at the bottom of the lineup even though Lil Nanth, A-Tay, and Kam-O have all been playing very well. When you’re favored at that many spots, you’re playing at home, and you’re well rested, you’re tough to bet against.
Final score prediction: Williams plays a better match, but ultimately falls short. CMS def. Williams 6-3
#4 Middlebury @ #14 Pomona-Pitzer, Tuesday 7:00 p.m.
#4 Middlebury def UC-Santa Cruz 5-4 & Azusa Pacific def. #4 Middlebury 7-2. WOAH NOW. One of the most shocking scores of the year so far was Midd’s 5-4 narrow victory over Cruz yesterday. PP just beat Cruz 8-1 the other day. Now, Midd is still getting used to outdoor tennis and still doesn’t have Farrell or de Quant in the singles lineup, it was a “revenge match” with Hansen on the other side, blah blah blah. If this wasn’t a wake-up call for the Panthers, I don’t know what will be. They showed good resolve in coming back after being down 2-1 (also losing two tiebreaks) and dropping three first singles sets, and we will see if that carries over into a hotter start against PP tonight.
Why it’s important: After Middlebury’s less than inspiring performance yesterday, the Panthers will come out tonight looking to make a statement. We did get our first de Quant glimpse of the spring, as he played #2 doubles with Eazor yesterday. Let’s hope that was just a warm-up match and the senior will be ready to give it a full go today.We haven’t seen Farrell on this trip, and I have no idea how he’s progressing but given his retirement at 2-2 in the first 10 days ago against MIT I doubt he’s fully healthy let alone in top form. This is one of Pomona-Pitzer’s last chances for a statement win to get them back in the Pool-C conversation. Losses to Wash U, Chicago, and Williams certainly hurt the Hens’ at-large hopes, but a win tonight and they’re back in the discussion.
What PP needs to do to pull off the upset: Wear down the Panthers at both ends of the lineup. We saw PP take a 2-1 doubles lead on Williams the other day, and there’s no reason they can’t do it again tonight. While Cuba may be the best player in the country, he has looked vulnerable of late, and there’s nobody hotter in all of DIII than Jed Kronenberg right now. My dude has only lost one set to DIII competition this spring, and the only loss in his entire career was to Lipscomb in the finals of the West ITA. Don’t think he’s played a pansy schedule either. JK has STRAIGHT-SET wins over Katzman, Rosen, Wu, Chua and Grodecki. In addition to JK, the Hens have a couple of spots where they still match up fairly well. Josh Gearou can grind down TVG at #3 singles, and the Hens’ depth has been playing well. With experienced guys like Malech and Mandic near the bottom of the lineup taking on less experienced Panthers (Eazor has been playing well, but Xiao and Vanezis have been up and down), who knows what happens if PP gets a lead!
Why Midd will take care of business: While I scoffed at this as an excuse for the close score with the Slugs, it’s true that Midd hasn’t been playing any outdoor tennis. They should have their legs under them now, and the Panthers did come back to crush Merrimack 9-0 last night after the Cruz match. Cuba has looked “vulnerable” but that doesn’t mean he’s been losing. In fact, he hasn’t lost yet at all this spring. The kid seems to be able to simply turn it on when its required. Seeing de Quant in dubs gives me hope that he’s closer to playing singles than I had anticipated. While Midd’s depth has been struggling a bit, PP’s 4-6 just all lost to Williams and the Ephs’ depth is just as unproven as Panthers’. There are two ways to take the UCSC result: 1) Midd is really struggling to find themselves right now and this match is ripe with upset potential or 2) Midd overlooked UCSC because they believe they are better than the rest of the country. It’s probably somewhere in between, but isn’t #2 just slightly more believable?
Final score prediction: Bounce back. The Panthers take a doubles lead and don’t look back. Middlebury def. Pomona-Pitzer 7-2.
If Middlebury gets by PP, no matter how pretty, they Panthers will be in good shape headed into a monumental clash this weekend with CMS. I will be back to preview that match, along with a few other NE weekend tilts later in the week. Until then, if you’ve learned nothing else, always remember that the Cars series is the worst thing Pixar has ever done.