After a thrilling final day of the Stag-Hen, it’s important not to lose steam as we continue through a very important week of DIII tennis. Fresh off their title, Bowdoin took care of CMU tonight, but there is another NE team that has been quietly racking up big wins through the early part of their spring break. The Amherst Mammoths were a giant question mark heading into this spring, no senior starters, multiple out-going transfers, and stuffed to the brim with raw/unexperienced talent. So far that raw talent appears to be sushi grade because it looks DAYUM good. The young Mammoths have another LARGE match on Thursday against Wash U. They also play at CMS on Saturday, and I’ll be back to preview that and a slew of other important NE matches later in the week, but one step at a time here. Let’s set the scene and get to a match-by-match preview.
Recent Results:
Amherst def #27 Skidmore 7-2, Herst def. #12 CMU 7-2 & Herst def. #11 Whitman 8-1
Amherst has gotten off to an impressive start to the season, taking down Skid, CMU, and now Whitman in their first three matches. For those of you still waiting to pass judgement on the Mammoths, lean in a little bit, pssssst, NONE OF THOSE MATCHES WERE EVEN CLOSE! With a win tomorrow against Wash U, Amherst will have firmly put themselves on the right side of the Pool-C bubble, and it would likely take a loss to a team like Tufts or MIT to knock them back into the discussion.
#12 CMU def. Wash U 5-4, Wash U def. #14 PP 6-3, #4 Bowdoin def. Wash U 7-2, Wash U def #5 Wes 5-4
What a tumultuous week for the Bears. A heartbreaking loss to CMU, a good rebound win over PP, getting beaten badly by Bowdoin, and then flipping the script and winning the closest match of the Stag-Hen and securing 3rd place over a depleted Wesleyan team. The win over Wes was especially necessary, because it keeps the Bears square on the Pool-C bubble, instead of looking up at it. Wash U is dangerous, even if they seem slightly down compared to where they are most years. In the past, Wash U has actually always been the most dangerous when you started doubting them…
What’s at stake: Yet another major Pool-C match. We might of well have dubbed this Pool-C week on The Blog, but that’s absurd seeing as it’s literally the middle of March. If Wash U beats Amherst in this one, it’s going to lead us down the rabbit hole of Pool-C insanity. That means Wash U will have beaten Amherst who will have beaten CMU who will have beaten Wash U. The dreaded chaos tri-cycle. Throw in that Wesleyan plays CMU on Friday for a chance for a second tri-cycle, and you’re going to have the selection committee melting faces in May. A win for Amherst and they are not only solidly on the right side of the bubble, but solidly in the top-8.
Key to victory for both sides: Doubles. You’ll see in the matchups below, that there are a bunch of close individual matchups. Both Amherst and Wash U have played really solid doubles so far this year, and both are historically good doubles programs. Amherst appears to be able to win at all six spots, while Wash U has shown some weakness at different spots in their singles lineup. If Amherst gets a doubles lead, I think this one could be over quickly, but if Wash U can put some pressure on the young guns, we have yet to see how they will respond. Speaking of, let’s break this down match-by-match.
#1 doubles: Kozlowski/Li (Wash U) vs Kaplan/Wei (Amherst)
Swing match right off the bat! Kaplan and Wei started the year really hot with an excellent win over the Skidmore #1 team, and another good win against the CMU top duo. However, they fell to Whitman’s #1 pair which was the only point the Mammoths lost on Tuesday. Koz and Li have had their ups and downs recently, and I think this is a match Wash U needs to win if they are going to win the match…Amherst 8-5.
#2 doubles: Neves/Vishnubholta (Wash U) vs Fung/Hillis (Amherst)
A matchup of strengths here, as we know this Wash U team is strong but the Mammoth duo of Fung and Hillis have not lost yet this year. The Bears will be their toughest opponents yet, but I like the Herst duo to pull it out. Amherst 8-5.
#3 doubles: Haugen/Kroot (Wash U) vs Bessette/Ma (Amherst)
I still don’t know what to make of this Haugen and Kroot pairing. On paper it should be an incredible #3 team, they lost to CMU, but then came out firing at the Stag-Hen and beat both PP and Bowdoin’s #3 teams. Van der Sman subbed in for Haugen against Wesleyan, but that’s still a good #3 team. Bessette is a very good doubles player, but gimme the Bears here. Wash U 8-6.
#1 singles: Johnny Wu (Wash U) vs Sean Wei (Amherst)
Wu is known as the best grinder in DIII, but his results have been lacking a bit of late. Meanwhile, freshman phenom (#1) Sean Wei has started off the spring hot, taking down Koulouris with ease, pushing Levine to a third set, and routining Hewlin 2&2. He appears to be the real deal which makes Herst all that much more dangerous. Amherst, 6-3, 6-4.
#2 singles: Ben van der Sman (Wash U) vs Ethan Hillis (Amherst)
Freshman on freshman here on the two line, but while van der Sman has been struggling lately with straight-set losses to Finkleman and Tercek, Hillis is 3-0 to start the year including a straight-set win over D3AS’ reigning POTW, Ray Boppana. Hillis was just moved up to two for the first time against Whitman, so he’s still adjusting to the position, but I like him here. Amherst, 7-6, 6-3.
#3 singles: Bernardo Neves (Wash U) vs Zach Bessette (Amherst)
I like Bessette at #3 for Amherst, as he will be able to compete and win the majority of the time at that spot. However, Neves has been a machine for Wash U so far this season, and while I think this is another close match, Nardo has simply been too solid to pick against. Wash U, 3-6, 6-4, 6-2.
#4 singles: J.J. Kroot (Wash U) vs Nathan Kaplan (Amherst)
I liked the swap of Kroot and Neves, but Carter still took J.J. down like a sweet waffle in the 3rd place match at the Stag-Hen. Kaplan, on the other hand, has been like clockwork. A 4&4 win against Whitman, a 4&4 win CMU, and a 4&3 win against Skidmore. When the clock ain’t broke…Amherst 6-4, 6-4.
#5 singles: Daniel Li (Wash U) vs Kevin Ma (Amherst)
Another battle of two freshman. Li got the big win for the Bears against Wesleyan, but much like his singles teammates, Ma has been killin it recently, and has yet to lose this year. If Li is able to hit out, this one should stay close, but I like Ma to get it done in the end. Amherst, 6-4, 3-6, 10-5.
#6 singles: Koki Takabatake (Wash U) vs Jayson Fung (Amherst)
A battle of strength here as this is a strong spot for both teams. Koki has been the best bottom of the lineup guy for Wash U so far, but he is about to run into a different beast in Mr. Fung. Jayson played in the top half of the lineup last year, and hasn’t lost more than six games yet this year. To continue with my theme, this one might stay closer, but I’m going with my Mammoths. Amherst, 6-4, 6-3.
PREDICTIONS:
NE: Amherst def. Wash U 7-2
AS: Amherst def. Wash U 6-3
Central: Wash U def. Amherst 5-4
D3RegNE/C: Amherst def Wash U 7-2
CHB: Amherst def Wash U 6-3