AS: Welcome, one and all, to the microwave Stag-Hen Semifinal Preview! That’s right folks, we get previews out in between matches while the players go grab a sub from Quiznos or something. That’s how we work here at the Blog, so while they enjoy a TOASTED Turkey Sub with mayo and signature whole wheat bread, they can read about themselves and whether or not they’ll win their next match. It’s a good day, so let’s get to it.
NE note 1: We actually haven’t seen a lineup from Wash U today, so we’re going off the assumption that they are using the same lineup as they did against CMU yesterday.
NE note 2: A preview in the middle of a work-day, after four different tournament previews? And two match-by-match breakdowns at that? If you like the content we provide, consider donating to the Blog, or just telling us how fantastic we are. We like that too.
#4 Bowdoin vs #7 Wash U
#1 doubles: Tercek/Urken (Bowdoin) vs Kozlowski/Li (Wash U)
NE: This is a power matchup, with the massive team of Terk/Urk going against the big hitters of Kozlowski and Li. Bowdoin should be favored in this matchup, but I don’t think it’s by as much as D3AS seems to think. Bowdoin, 8-6.
AS: It’s AS here, and we got a matchup of two strong teams, but one is definitely stronger. That team is Tercek/Urken, who have been playing together for at least one year now. Tercek is too good at the net and Urken is too good at the baseline to get beat by Kozlowski/Li, no matter how specialized Koz is. Bowdoin 8-4
#2 doubles: Jiang/Wolfe (Bowdoin) vs Vishnubholta/Neves (Wash U)
NE: Jiang and Wolfe played well in doubles earlier today, but both struggled in singles. I worry that the latter match carries over more than the doubles success. This is a close one, and one that Wash U probably needs if they’re gonna win. Bowdoin 8-7(4).
AS: A big match here between a two tough teams once again, and Wash U showed some real good doubles prowess today sweeping PP. Here’s one that Wash U has to take if they are going to win this match. Spoiler alert – they don’t. Bowdoin 8-3
#3 doubles: Roddy/Patel (Bowdoin) vs Haugen/van der Sman (Wash U)
NE: I don’t know if this #3 team played again today, but I know CMU dispatched them without all that much trouble. If Haugen has shaken some of the rust off, this becomes a very dangerous team. Sweeping PP in doubles is nice, but this is a whole different level. Bowdoin 8-5.
AS: I’m really surprised that Wash U doesn’t have Kroot in the doubles lineup anywhere but it didn’t hurt them this morning. Their three team is pretty damn sick, so I’ll take them here. Wash U 8-5.
#1 singles: Grant Urken (Bowdoin) vs Johnny Wu (Wash U)
NE: Generally, I believe that Johnny Wu might be the last person in the country you want to play with tired legs. That being said, Urken got through his match pretty quickly today, and Wu got beaten with surprising ease by Kronenberg earlier in the day. I had this match circled before the start of the tournament as a deep 3-setter, but given the circumstances it’s tough to pick against Urken here. Bowdoin, 6-4, 6-3.
AS: This will be a more interesting match than it looks, even if Johnny Wu has gotten blasted in his first two matches outdoors in California. Wu is a fighter, and he’ll be even tougher given that this is the second match of the day. Urken is no joke, and he has the advantage, but Wu will give him a battle that he needs to be ready for. Bowdoin, 6-3, 7-6 (4)
#2 singles: Luke Tercek (Bowdoin) vs Benjamin van der Sman (Wash U)
NE: I believe this is the match where Tercek playing #2 reaps the most rewards for Bowdoin. We all know that van der Sman is talented, and with the excellent coaching at Wash U could turn into one of the nation’s best, but he’s not quite there yet. With recent losses to Tsai, Katzman and Downing, I don’t seem him beating Tercek on tired legs. Bowdoin 6-3, 6-1.
AS: A match that everyone wants to watch between what is probably Wash U’s best player vs. what used to be Bowdoin’s best player. Tercek is an experienced mate, and he gets the young gun from the Bears in what should be a pretty entertaining match. People seem to be on the Sman train, but I go with experience here. Bowdoin, 4-6, 6-3, 6-2
#3 singles: Kyle Wolfe (Bowdoin) vs J.J. Kroot (Wash U)
NE: Wolfe looked very human in his match earlier today against Case, but if there’s one guy I actually want playing a match where both guys are exhausted it’s Kyle. Kroot has come back down to earth of late, and if he’s at all fatigued then that trend will likely continue. Bowdoin, 5-7, 6-3, 10-6.
AS: What’s going on with Kroot? A loss to to both CMU and Pomona in two straight matches has me worried that the hype train may have derailed. Yikes. Kroot has the stomach to bounce back from a couple disappointing losses, but going up against the best of the best in Wolfe is something I’d rather not do if I was struggling. Bowdoin, 6-2, 6-4
#4 singles: Jerry Jiang (Bowdoin) vs Bernardo Neves (Wash U)
NE: Jiang fell against Case earlier today, and was a bit shaky in his match against Trinity CT yesterday. Neves is one of Wash U’s grittiest players, and I think he takes this one in two close sets. Wash U 7-5, 7-5.
AS: Neves was promoted in the lineup after a very stellar Indoors, moving Daniel Li down in the lineup to a place where he should be more comfortable. Neves needs to come through here against Jiang, who presents a solid groundstroke challenge but not necessarily someone that can blow him off the court. I’ll take Neves. Wash U 6-4. 6-3
#5 singles: Gil Roddy (Bowdoin) vs Daniel Li (Wash U)
NE: Ok, Imma let you finish, and Daniel Li moving down to #5 should give him a better chance to win, but he’s going up against one of the best #5’s of all time! Roddy is a big guy, so the fatigue could come into play, but I can’t go against my guy. Bowdoin 6-3, 6-3.
AS: The big leagues welcomes Daniel Li to town, where he plays the best or second best #5 in the nation. Gil Roddy, all day. Bowdoin 6-1, 6-2.
#6 singles: Justin Patel (Bowdoin) vs Koki Takabatake (Wash U)
NE: Patel is playing some of his best tennis right now, but Koki has been the most steady option for the Bears at #6. Patel played close against Case today, but he got the win. I think this is close most of the way, but I like Koki’s game almost as much as I like saying his name. Wash U 7-6, 6-4.
AS: Patel came on really strong at the end of last year, and will probably continue that performance this year. Takabatake has really been a strength for Wash U at 6 and he rolled through CMU yesterday, but he did have a little bit of a tougher time today against PP. It’s really hard to pick against Patel but I will do so for the sake of a more respectable score. Wash U 7-5, 7-5.
PREDICTIONS:
NE: Bowdoin def. Wash U 7-2
AS: Bowdoin def. Wash U 6-3
AVZ: Bowdoin def Wash U 7-2
#5 WESLEYAN vs #2 CMS
#1 doubles: Carter/Roji (Wes) vs Gordy/Parodi (CMS)
NE: This young team of Carter and Roji has a lot of potential, but they are still raw. I loved the fight I saw today, but they shouldn’t have been in that hole to begin with. I’ll take the consistency of Gordy/Parodi on their home courts, in what might be a matchup of each team’s weakest spot. CMS 8-5.
AVZ: The biggest downside I see to this match for CMS is they sometimes come out and start slow. I see Carter and Roji as a bit unproven and Wesleyan as a whole didn’t come out and toast Trinity like we all might have expected. Gotta go with CMS here as they are the better team. CMS 8-4
#2 doubles: Holtzman/Smith (Wes) vs Burney/Katzman (CMS)
NE: Now we get to a matchup of strength. I was very impressed with Jonny Holtzman today, especially after how he performed in the Stag-Hen last year, essentially losing his starting spot. That being said, Burney and Katzman might be the best #2 team in the entire country. They may drop a few matches here and there, but I’m not sure I will ever pick against them without their results falling off a cliff. CMS 8-4.
AVZ: To say I am high on the combo of Burney and Katzman would be an understatement. As NE has said, currently this duo is the best #2 team in the country and I would even argue they might take over the #1 spot before season’s end. Burney at the net is so good and Katzman is just ridiculous. CMS 8-3
#3 doubles: Chen/Daniels (Wes) vs Berber/Park (CMS)
NE: Chen and Daniels have the longevity, and they play tough on the big points. Both are singles guys, and that could hurt them against a doubles specialist like Berber, but I like this scrappy/veteran Wes team. WES 8-6.
AVZ: Three doubles is typically full of guys who are baseline players and just happen to be already at doubles. I don’t see this as being much different as all 4 players are just solid. Again, I wasn’t blown away with Wesleyan’s first match performance outside so I am actually going to go with the CMS doubles sweep. CMS 8-7 (4)
#1 singles: Steven Chen (Wes) vs Niko Parodi (CMS)
NE: FIREWORKS! Parodi fought back against Fallati today, and ultimately took the super breaker. Chen went up big early in both sets, and was the clincher against Hamilton and Trinity Tx. We saw an absolute battle between these two last year, and while I normally believe Niko is one of the three best players in the country, playing a 2nd match against Chen after you played a long first match sounds about as fun as sticking D3AS’ arm into a meat grinder. WES, 3-6, 6-4, 6-1.
AVZ: Chen is a guy I wouldn’t want to play at any time let along coming back from a tough loss. I see Chen having the fresher legs and desire to take down a top opponent. Was Parodi ever pushed that hard in consecutive matches last year? Wes, 7-5, 6-4
#2 singles: Andrew Finkelman (Wes) vs Jack Katzman (CMS)
NE: Fink’s first real test of the new year comes in fellow freshman phenom Jack Katzman. Katz rolled through young Vernier, while Fink also got it done against Jordan Pitts. This one could be close for a while, and Fink showed great resolve in the fall, but The Katz Man is a different beast, ya dig? CMS, 7-5, 6-3.
AVZ: To me this is the match to watch across all six singles. Katzman is untouchable until I say otherwise, but Finkleman’s fall cannot go unnoticed. I see this as a relatively easy win for Katz. CMS, 6-3, 6-3
#3 singles: Tiago Eusebio (Wes) vs Oscar Burney (CMS)
NE: Though both these guys played a lot of #3 in the NESCAC last spring (Burney for Amherst), they never went head to head as Eusebio beat Fung 7-6 in the 3rd when Wes and Herst dueled last spring. Burney looked really good this morning, while Eusebio had his ups and downs. I’m more worried about Tiago playing his 2nd match of the day, and think there’s even a small chance he gets pulled from the lineup. CMS, 6-3, 6-3.
AVZ: Burney impresses on the doubles court, but I am not sold on him as a #3 singles player.He came out strong against Emory, but faded fairly quickly. Eusebio has the goods to get this done and I think he does barring any issues with fatigue. Wes, 6-4, 3-6, 10-7
#4 singles: Cam Daniels (Wes) vs Daniel Park (CMS)
NE: Daniels has made a living at the bottom of the lineup during his career, but he struggled in his first big shot at the middle of the lineup this afternoon, falling 4&4 to Jace Akagi-Okuma. I expect him to bounce back this evening, but Park will be too tough a cookie to crumble. CMS, 6-4, 6-1.
AVZ: To say that Cam Daniel’s loss to Trinity was a surprise would be not shocking to anyone. This has got to favor Park’s chances on his home court quite drastically and I see him cruising to a victory. CMS 6-2, 6-2
#5 singles: Princeton Carter (Wes) vs Julian Gordy (CMS)
NE: Back to fireworks, two big hitters and two of the better #5’s out there. Gordy was basically flawless today, taking his match without losing a single game, but Carter also played well winning his match with ease. This will be a good test to see if Gordy is ready (fitness-wise) to play in both facets of the lineup. WES, 6-4, 4-6, 10-6.
AVZ: Princeton Carter is a blog favorite and for very good reason. He can flat out play. Gordy barely got a warm up in for the first match so that will certainly help his chances and this match is a virtual coin flip, but I like the Cardinals to take this one in three. WES 7-5, 3-6, 10-8
#6 singles: Jon Holtzman (Wes) vs Matthew Jacobs (CMS)
NE: I said it above, but Holtman impressed me a lot this morning. That being said, this is a what have you done for me lately kind of tournament, and this morning’s match now means about as much as D3AS’ meat-ground arm. We saw Jacobs play at Indoors, but he looked far more comfortable this morning joining Gordy in the bagel club. This will be a good test for Holtzman, but I think he falls a bit short. CMS, 6-2, 6-4.
AVZ: It looks like Jacobs has rebounded nicely after a tough loss at indoors. Bumped down to 6 certainly helps and I expect another comfortable win for the Stags as their depth is hard to match. CMS 6-4, 6-3
PREDICTIONS:
NE: CMS def. Wes 6-3
AVZ: CMS def Wes 6-3 (splitting singles)
AS: CMS def. Wesleyan 7-2