It’s that time of year again, boys and girls. Time for my NE teams to start shipping off to warmer weather with increasing regularity. We saw Brandeis & Bates have somewhat successful Cali trips last month, and now we get our first looks at Amherst, Bowdoin and Wesleyan this week. Three top-10 teams with a lot to prove, all of whom seem to be looking up at Middlebury for NESCAC supremacy. Our Stag-Hen coverage will start on Sunday and you’ll be getting a lot of info about Bowdoin and Wesleyan’s matchups in that tournament, so this article will serve as more of an overview for the week to come. In the Mammoths, Polar Bears and Cardinals, we have three teams who made NCAAs last year, and would consider anything short of that this year to be a disappointment. In fact, both Bowdoin and Wesleyan finished the year as top-5 programs, and given Amherst’s storied history I would bet that all three teams have their sights set higher than just making NCAAs this spring. All three teams have a particularly difficult week ahead of them. Let’s take a look at each team’s upcoming fun in the sun and how it might impact the rest of their season.
AMHERST
ITA Ranking: 9th
Power Ranking: 9th
Spring Break Schedule: 3/11 vs #27 Skidmore, 3/12 vs #12 CMU, 3/13 vs #11 Whitman, 3/15 vs #7 Wash U, and 3/17 @ #2 CMS.
Overview: Certainly not an easy week for the Mammoths, as they hit the ground running with five teams vying for NCAA tournament spots in a six-day stretch. While Skidmore is the easiest of these matches, I believe the Thoroughbreds should be ranked closer to #20 in the country and it won’t be an easy first match. Then a quick turnaround for Herst’s first big Pool-C match of the spring with CMU. A loss to the Tartans puts Amherst behind the eight ball immediately as CMU already has losses to Chicago and GAC. Surprisingly, the Whitman match, while one of the closest in national ranking, means the least this week. Whitman already beat Redlands and Trinity TX, and as long as they beat the teams they are supposed to this year then a loss to the #BluesBrothers doesn’t really hurt Amherst’s chances. Herst finally gets a day off, then takes on Wash U at CMS on Thursday. Here’s hoping there is somehow live streaming for that battle. If Amherst can go into that matchup undefeated, there will be some major buzz around that match. Finally, the Mammoths end the week against their hosts. Same thing applies, if Amherst has taken down Wash U, then the match against CMS becomes far more interesting, but as of now that seems like a match CMS wins without coming down to the wire.
Biggest match of the week: Amherst optimists would probably say Wash U, while Amherst pessimists would lean towards CMU. I don’t know what to make of this young team yet, so I’m going with CMU. If the Mammoths take care of business against the Tartans, they have put themselves (barring a loss to Skid) on the right side of the Pool-C bubble (assuming we have the same amount of teams as last spring). NOTE: Now that CMU has beaten Wash U this is totally flipped! Herst has to beat Wash U to stay on the right side of the Pool-C bubble!
What constitutes a successful week: Three wins. Any three wins would probably do the trick, although they might throw the rankings into total disarray. The three most likely wins are (obviously) the first three matches of the week, and I would say that Herst is at least a slight favorite in all three. Realistically, wins in their first two matches would be enough to keep Amherst in control for a Pool-C spot, but a win over Whitman also gives them an edge over Redlands (who they don’t play) and possibly PP as well if the Dawgs take care of business this weekend in the desert. Two wins is ok, but three wins is a successful trip for the Mammoths.
BOWDOIN
ITA Ranking: 4th
Power Ranking: 7th
Spring Break Schedule: WEEK 1–3/11 vs Trinity CT, 3/12 vs #25 Case Western, 3/12 vs #7 Wash U OR #14 PP, 3/13 final day of Stag Hen (likely @ #2 CMS or vs #5 Wesleyan), 3/14 vs #12 CMU, 3/16 vs #11 Whitman, 3/16 vs #27 Skidmore, WEEK 2–3/21 @ #13 Redlands, 3/22 vs #6 Chicago.
Overview: Each of these three teams plays quite the schedule while out in Southern California, but Bowdoin gets the award for most matches so far with nine, including two doubleheaders. Although they play a lot of tennis in their first few days, they have scheduled a virtual warm-up match to start the season, which gives them some breathing room. Case Western presents some unique challenges in the Stag Hen QF bc the Spartans play good doubles and have been playing matches for the past month, but Bowdoin should roll through to the semis, where they will meet the winner of Wash U/PP. Either way, Bowdoin should be favored, but that’s a big match. A win there means they stay on the right side of the Pool-C bubble, while a loss there means they’re in the 3rd place match and still likely matched up against another top-5 team. If the Stag Hen plays out according to seed, Bowdoin will take on CMS in the finals, which would be a fantastic tennis match, and warrant a match-by-match breakdown later in the week. No rest for the weary as Bowdoin gets another big Pool-C battle with CMU the following day. The Tartans actually match up decently with the Polar Bears, and if Bowdoin goes down in doubles this could be trouble. Another day off and then a matchup with Whitman, who all of a sudden looks far more vulnerable after their 5-4 escape over Lewis and Clark. The annual spring break matchup with Skidmore finishes week 1, and then Bowdoin plays two LARGE Pool-C matches against Redlands and Chicago the following week. I will be back to break those down after we see a bit more from the Polar Bears.
Biggest match of the week: The Stag Hen semifinal. Lots of good options here. The match with CMU is obviously crucial to keep Bowdoin on the inflated side of the Pool-C bubble, but the Polar Bears are the significant favorites there. The potential semifinal against Wash U is the make or break match of their trip. A loss to the Bears and Bowdoin absolutely has to beat CMU/Redlands to feel ok about Pool-C. A win over the Bears, and there is room for a misstep. A win over the Bears would also likely set up a match against CMS which is a “nothing to lose” sort of match, given how much tennis is left to play, I’m not worried about NCAA seedings just yet. A win over Wash U also amplifies the importance of next week’s matchup with Chicago, but we’ll get to that later. NOTE: Just like with Amherst, after CMU’s upset of Wash U this gets flipped.
What constitutes a successful week: SIX wins INCLUDING a win over Case! That may seem like a lot, but Bowdoin will be favored in at least six of the seven matches that they play this week. There is a little room for debate here, as six wins means beating Case (as stipulated) CMU, Whitman, Skidmore, Trinity CT, AND either finishing 2nd or 3rd at the Stag Hen. The most likely path there is a win over WashU/PP and a loss to CMS/Wesleyan, but it could also be the other way around.
WESLEYAN
ITA Ranking: 5th
Power Ranking: 6th
Spring Break Schedule: 3/12 vs #15 Trinity Tx, 3/12 vs #32 Swarthmore OR @ #2 CMS, 3/13 Stag Hen Final (likely vs winner #7 Wash U/# 14PP or #4 Bowdoin), 3/15 vs #1 Emory, 3/16 vs #12 CMU, 3/17 @ #13 Redlands.
Overview: What a whirlwind week for the Cards. Do you sense a theme here? Unlike the other teams coming out west, Wesleyan does not have a single easy match on their entire schedule. They will be heavy favorites in their Stag-Hen QF against Trinity, but the Tigers can’t be overlooked. Trin has struggled so far this year, but they will be back in something close to their element, and always bring it in dubs. Assuming Wes takes care of business, they will likely get CMS later that day. That’s a no-lose situation, as CMS is expected to win and a loss doesn’t hurt the Cards. However, it also presents a great opportunity for Wesleyan as they played CMS down to the wire last year. The final day of the Stag Hen will be a tough test both physically and mentally. A match against Wash U would give us a clear indication of where each team lies on the Pool-C depth chart. A coveted rest day, then back to the grind with three straight match days. The matchup with Emory presents a similar opportunity as the CMS match; however, the matches with CMU and Redlands need to be wins if the Cards season is going to live up to expectations. Assuming Wes beats Trin, they will have six matches in six days and each one will be against top-15 competition. I can’t wait to see what happens!
Biggest match of the week: This is the toughest decision out of the three teams. It would be easy to say CMU or even Redlands, but I believe the final day of the Stag Hen is the Cards’ biggest match of the week. It will likely be against either Wash U/PP or Bowdoin. If it’s Bowdoin, it actually matters a bit less considering the teams will play again later this spring, but it would give the Cards a huge opportunity. If it’s Wash U, it will be the best Pool-C barometer of the week. Both teams will be playing on very tired legs, and it will be both a grueling physical and mental test.
What constitutes a successful week: Again, I think this is the toughest call of the three teams, but I think the bar is now high for the Cards and a successful week only comes with at least four wins. It’s obvious that the Trinity, CMU, and Redlands matches are must wins for the week to be considered a success, and nobody would fault Wesleyan for deeming the week a positive if they do lose to CMS and Emory. The tricky one is the final day of the Stag Hen. I think Wes needs that 2nd Stag Hen win in order to truly deem the week a success, however if they do fall to Wash U or Bowdoin in the 3rd place match, wins over CMU and Redlands at least keep them afloat in the chase for an NCAA bid.