Happy Thursday, boys and girls, and welcome to one of our last pre-tournament #IndoorsWeek hype articles. We save the best for the last day, as D3AS delivered a sermon on X-Factors earlier today, and now I’m here to give some advice about our DraftKings game. If you haven’t signed up yet, you have just a few hours left, as lineups lock at 9 a.m. on Friday morning. I’ve written this article both times we’ve done our Indoors Fantasy game and now it’s time for round three. As always, the trick to making a good DraftKings lineup is all about finding the value. Paying through the nose for studs is great, but only if you can compliment them with bargain players who will add to your team. The winning teams scored 50 and 51 points over the past two years (shoutout to Eileen Hillis, mother of Ethan who is now at Amherst). You can look at this in two ways: 1) Your six players need to average about 8.33 points to get your team to 50 OR 2) You need to average about 1.43 points per $1000 spent. For example, if a player is 10k (2018’s Mr. 10K is CMS’ Nikolai Parodi) he would need to score 14.3 points in order to hit the winning team’s value threshold. Keep these thoughts in mind as you make and submit your teams. Click here for the complete list of players. We love this stuff, probably a little too much, so please comment, email, or tweet at us to keep the DraftKings discussion going!
STUDS: $7,125 – $10,000
OVERVALUED STUD: Julian Gordy, CMS, $9,375. One piece of insider information given to us by Coach Settles on his BLOGCAST was that he felt better about going to Indoors now that he could play a strong lineup of kids who grew up playing indoor tennis. Captain Julian Gordy is from Tarzana, CA, which is VERY much in Southern California. We had Gordy at this high price because he was slotted to play #1 doubles and around #5 singles. Nothing against Gordy here, or any of my “overvalued” choices, but given that it’s now likely he will not play singles, it’s impossible for him to come even close to his DK value.
UNDERVALUED STUD: Adrien Bouchet, Emory, $8,000. BOUCHET BOUCHET BOUCHET BOUCHET! The junior has been playing #3 singles behind Josepher and #2 doubles with specialist Max Renke. The duo will be favored in their matchup with GAC and their 2nd round matchup with either Chicago or CMU. Their likely final opponent would be either CMS or Wash U, neither of whom would be favored against this Emory duo. As for singles, Bouchet hypothetically matches up with Whaling to start, then would take on Kerrigan or Bopanna, and finally get somebody like Burney/Jacobs. Bouchet was one of the best middle of the lineup players in the country last year. While a 2nd round matchup with Kerrigan is tough, Bouchet is very capable of winning all six of his matches this weekend.
POPULAR STUD: Mohanad Alhouni, GAC, $9,250. According to our headmaster, “it’s Mohanad’s bubble and we’re all just living in it.” The #1 player in the country playing his final Indoors on his home courts, you best believe he should be a popular pick. Like Bouchet, Alhouni will be favored (if only slightly) in every match he plays this weekend. That beings said, he will also have some crazy stiff competition. His most likely path includes Jemison, Levine, and either Lipscomb or Hamilton. Tough sledding but you’ve got to beat the best to be the best.
CONTRARIAN STUD: Hayden Cassone, Emory, $8,750. A contrarian play is somebody who has enough flaws that most of the population will stay away, but a high enough upside to warrant consideration. Enter Hayden Cassone. The Emory freshman is playing in his first Indoors, and certainly has a large price attached to his name, but he also has the chance to impress like crazy. He will play tough matches throughout the weekend, but he should play six matches (playing #4-ish singles and #3 dubs with Jemison). Young Hayden has a chance to exceed the 1.43 target value, and pick up points on most of the competition while doing so.
MID-RANGE PLAYERS $3,125-7,000
OVERVALUED MID-RANGE: Patrick Wildman, CMS, $6,000. Yet another reason why you should check out AVZ’s Podcast with CMS Head Coach Paul Settles, Coach Settles dropped some insider knowledge that his lone senior, Patrick Wildman, is still about 30 days away from being able to compete. I assume that when healthy the senior Stag will make an impact on the singles lineup, but for now you should stay away. It’s really tough to win our game when you have one of your six guys contributing zero points.
UNDERVALUED MID-RANGE: The bottom of the home team’s lineup AKA Chase Johnson ($3,175), Yassine Derbani ($4,375) and Tommy Entwistle, GAC ($3,500). Honestly, I could have listed these guys in the bargain category as well for as cheap as they’re going. GAC’s #4 (Johnson), #5 (Derbani) and #6 (Entwistle) have a tough road ahead of them, but all that any of them have to do is hit about six points for the weekend and they will have reached our target value. We know the Gusties play great doubles, and while the EU match is tough to start, things should get somewhat simpler from there. If GAC loses to EU and CMU in the back draw, expect a match with Trinity TX to provide a handful of points to these guys.
POPULAR MID-RANGE: J.J. Kroot, Wash U, $5,375. Why J.J.? Well “I am Kroot” is one of the best taglines in D3 tennis at the moment, the dude is fiery and made for a competitive setting like Indoors, and he’ll be taking on Indoors inexperience early on with matches against Redlands and then a hypothetical matchup against either Burney or Jacobs from CMS, neither of whom has played in this setting before. Kroot is also a very good doubles player, and while he may not be a massive favorite in most of the matches he plays this weekend, he gives you a real chance to win everytime he plays, which should be six separate times throughout the weekend.
CONTRARIAN MID-RANGE: Kailas Shekar, CMU, $4,875. Shekar is a guy who isn’t getting all that much press, but will have plenty of opportunity this weekend. He will likely play doubles with Daniel Levine, and slot in around #4 singles. His matches with Chicago will be tough, but hypothetically he’ll have at least an even shot against GAC in singles and then be probably favored against either Redlands or Trinity Tx. He only needs 7 point to really hit his value, and there’s no reason he couldn’t get closer to 10. Plus, another aspect of the contrarian play is that if Shekar gets points in the 2nd round, it likely comes at the expense of Chase Johnson, who will probably be a more popular play.
BARGAINS: $500 – $3,000
OVERVALUED BARGAIN: David Liu, Chicago, $3,000. Are you sensing a trend here in the overvalued players? When healthy, DLiu is one of the best singles and doubles players in the entire country. There’s a reason that he’s not about $9,000 this weekend, and it’s because we know that Liu will not be back for at least another month and possibly more. The former Maroon #1 has been out for a while and though Chicago can win without him, it’s not worth taking a chance on the senior making an unlikely yet heroic comeback when there are better bargains to be found below.
UNDERVALUED BARGAIN: Brysl Libeo, Redlands, $2,625. It seems like Libeo has become firmly entrenched in the Redlands doubles lineup, so that alone might be enough for consideration, however he has also been playing some #6 this year, and even played #5 in one match. If he ends up playing singles, all it takes is two total wins throughout the weekend for him to hit value. Brysl is a little guy, but he has the potential for BIG value.
POPULAR BARGAIN: Max Renke, Emory, $2,875. Renke is probably going to be the most popular of all the doubles specialists this weekend. The three main specialist options are Raclin (Chicago), Renke (EU), and Berber (CMS). They are the three main options because they are the three most likely to both play doubles and NOT play singles. Guys like Kumar (Chicago), Kozlowski (Wash U) and Spaulding (EU) all have real chances to play singles, and guys like Chen (CMU) or O’Neill (GAC) could end up playing, but are less sure than the original three. Of the three, Renke seems like the best value, so I’m guessing he’ll be the most popular.
CONTRARIAN BARGAIN: Mark Wu, Wash U, $2,000. It’s likely either Kozlowski or Wu for Wash U’s anchor spot. We had projected Kozlowski as the guy last year, and then it turned into Engel’s spot. I think that if either guy loses to Redlands, the other might be playing in the 2nd round. All it takes is one singles win from Wu for him to hit his value. It’s a big risk, but that’s what contrarian plays are.