Happy Friday, boys and girls, and welcome to my penultimate season preview. If the fact that we’re almost done with season previews doesn’t excite you, we can never be friends. However, they are almost done for a great reason…no it’s not D3Regional’s yearly hibernation (he actually did write something this week!), it’s officially wedding dual match season! Well, in my neck of the woods, it’s ALMOST dual match season. The NESCAC teams started their seasons on Thursday and when ‘CAC season starts that means we’re about to see our first action from the Bates Bobcats. Coming into this year at #19, there are some out there who are a bit down on Bates given they lost three starters, all of whom played singles AND were on either the #1 or #2 doubles teams. However, Bates has done a great job with their schedule this year (mainly good coaching but also a little bit of good luck!), which I believe gives them an opportunity to overcome their losses and possibly even surprise a few of you. While the Law Firm of Ellis, Feldman, and Ordway may have closed shop in Lewiston, Bates fans should feel #blessed to still have one more year with Ben Rosen at the top of the lineup.
Location: Lewiston, Maine
Conference: NESCAC
Coach: Paul Gastonguay (22nd year, graduated from Bates in ’89)
Asst. Coach: Sam Woods (6th year, graduated from Bates in ’11)
ITA National Ranking: 19th
ITA Regional Ranking: 7th
Blog Power Ranking: 21st
Twitter Handle: @BatesTennis. Very good for updates during matches, when they do tweet. Full of nicknames, which can be tough to decipher at the beginning of each season.
Key Losses: Chris Ellis (#1 doubles/#2 singles), Pat Ordway (#2 doubles/#5 singles), Brent Feldman (#6/7 singles), John Neufeld and Adam Schwartz (#2 doubles/#4 singles).
Key Additions: Alex Kennedy (3-star from NY, UTR=10.36) and Owen Greenwood (1-star from MA, UTR=9.45)
Realistic Best Case Scenario: The Bobcats, led by a stud in Ben Rosen, take care of all their big matches at home, including MIT, Tufts, and yes, AMHERST. Bates finishes 5th in the NESCAC and somehow draws Bowdoin in the 1st round of NESCACs where they continue their dominance of their rival and make the NESCAC semis, ending the year in the 11-15 range in the country.
Realistic Worst Case Scenario: Bates loses tight matches against MIT and Tufts, gets shalacked by the top-5 in the conference, and drops out of conference matches to UMW and Hopkins. Bates falls down below #30 in the rankings for the first time in a while.
POSITIVE BOLD PREDICTION: Coach Gastonguay will work his doubles magic and come up with at least two very solid teams this spring. While that does seem to happen in most years, Bates lost three of it’s top four doubles players from last spring in Ellis, Ordway and Schwartz. Bates’ doubles is usually very strong at the top, but it’s going to take a heck of a re-load and coaching to both find and then whip a couple top teams into NESCAC playing shape.
NEGATIVE BOLD PREDICTION: Bates will be challenged by its little brother. The three Maine schools have interesting relationships. Bates considers Bowdoin its biggest rival, while Bowdoin generally thinks of Midd as their biggest rival. But let’s not forget about the third brother in Colby. Actually, Bowdoin and Colby each consider the other their biggest rivals in terms of more major sports like football and ESPECIALLY hockey, but in terms of tennis, the little brother has been the Mules for a long time now. Don’t look now, but even with big losses, I think Colby will still challenge Bates this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that come down to a 5-4 decision in Waterville.
POSITIVE NOT-SO BOLD PREDICTION: Ben Rosen makes a run at NCAAs. I know, I know, the kid has made NCAAs each of the past couple years, and Bates has a history of performing well at the individual portion of NCAAs. Not-so-bold, but you need to keep an eye on this lanky senior none-the-less.
NEGATIVE NOT-SO BOLD PREDICTION: Bates misses NESCACs. Well, they’re projected 7th in the conference, and as of right now only six teams make the conference tournament. It’s a rule that really needs to be changed, and there are whispers that perhaps something might be in the works. However, those whispers have been heard before to no avail.
Lineup Prediction
#1: Ben Rosen, senior, UTR=12.77, range: #1-1. Easy one out of the way. Barring injury Rosen will be the top Cat this year. His fall started off very well with wins over Schlanger (projected Midd #4) and Farrell (projected Midd #2-3), and then a 10-8 superbreaker loss to Cuba (projected Midd #1). However it was downhill from there with losses to Sean Wei (freshman, projected Amherst #1-3) and Wolfe (projected Bowdoin #3) abruptly ending his ITA and Wallach tournaments in the 1st round. However, Rosen started last spring with four consecutive losses (Yasgoor, Hull, Barr and Cuba) and then went on to go 12-1 the rest of the way and lost in a tight 3-set match at NCAAs to eventual finalist Parodi (projected CMS #1). A Bates senior, with history of NCAA performances, is about as safe a bet to have a good year as anybody out there.
#2: Josh Quijano, junior, UTR=11.11, range: #2-4. And just like that, we’ve hit uncertainty. Quijano is the likely #2 after a couple years of playing in the middle of the lineup, but he struggled at #3 in 2017. This fall he lost to Urken (projected Bowdoin #2) in the 1st round of the ITA. You might say, that’s a tough matchup, and while it is, it’s also the player Josh might have to match up against when Bates plays Bowdoin later this year. However, he bounced back at the Wallach with an encouraging result against Tercek (projected Bowdoin #1) where the Bates junior fell in a super. He will fight for every point, but he (or any Bobcat) will also need to step up if he’s going to hold his own at #2 this year against the likes of Urken, De Quant/Farrell, Ali, Finkelman and Cauneac.
#3: Jacob Eisenberg, sophomore, UTR=10.96, range: #2-5. Eisenberg didn’t play at all for Bates last year, but was played B-Flight at Middlebury, was one of four Bates players chosen to play at the ITA, and ended up playing A-Flight at Bates to end his fall. That must mean he was playing very some very consistent ball in practice throughout the fall. He played four close matches through the fall, getting his only win against 4-star freshman Nate Eazor for Midd, and losing to Leaf (projected Skid #4-6) 11-9 in a super, Big Barr (projected MIT #1) 6-3 in the 3rd set, and Zain Ali (projected Tufts #2) in a super as well. Those are some exceedingly tight matches against some solid players. Encouraging stuff considering I know nothing about Eisenberg, but not enough for me to say with much confidence that he has this spot locked down.
#4: Vid Yadav, sophomore, UTR=10.66, range: #2-5. Another middle of the lineup spot, another sophomore without much experience. Unlike Eisenberg, Yadav did get some action as a freshman, including a solid win over Albert Go (MIT projected #6-7) in a super. However, he also got rocked by Allen Jackson (graduated) and lost a tight 3-setter to UMW. This season Vid was Bates’ 2nd A-Flight entry at Midd, and he took down Grimes (projected RPI #2-3) in the 1st round before getting beaten by De Quant (projected Midd #2-3). He was another of Bates’ four ITA singles spots, but he fell to Glickman (projected Trinity Ct #1) in straight sets. He was then in the B-Flight at Bates where he lost a straight set match to Nathan Kaplan (projected Amherst #3-6). Lil’ Yadav is a bit of a streaky player, with the ability to take down some really good players. While this is not usually Coach Castonguay’s style, it might behoove Bates to play him a little higher in the lineup when the matchup dictates.
#5: Jacob Kauppila, sophomore, UTR=11.16, range: #3-6. Unlike two sophomores above him, Kauppila has a whole season of experience under his belt. He notched solid wins over Tufts, Colby and Brandeis at the anchor position, but he struggled against top-15 teams going 0-5 and winning just one set along the way. This fall, Kaupa Traupa didn’t play at Midd or at the ITA, but did play in the B-Flight at Bates losing to Gil Roddy (projected Bowdoin #5) in the 1st round. The experience is what gets him a lineup spot for now, but the bottom of Bates’ lineup seems pretty up for grabs at this point.
#6: Nick Glover, sophomore, UTR=10.82, range: #5-7. Glover played some in the fall of his freshman year, but then didn’t play much during the spring. It seems like he will fit somewhere into the doubles lineup this spring, but he also has a good shot of playing singles too. Yes, he did play C-Flight at Midd, but he made the semis where he fell 12-10 in a super. He moved up to play B-Flight at Bates, where he also won a match, before getting trounced by Zhao (projected Bowdoin #6-7). As I said with Kauppila, the bottom of Bates’ lineup is pretty open at this point, but given that Glover has at least a little experience, my best guess is that he’s the guy who ends up in this spot later in the year.
Also in the mix: Josh Leiner (senior, UTR=10.86, range: #5-7) & Alex Kennedy (freshman, UTR=, range: #6-7). I would expect at least one of these two sophomores to hold their spots, but if not there are a couple of guys waiting in the wings. The first of these guys is senior and co-captain Josh Leiner. In fact, if I had to throw down a bet, I’d wager that Leiner will get a lineup shot fairly early on in the season. He was B-Flight at Midd and lost 1st round, then played C-Flight at Bates where he made the semis, including a win over BLOG FAVORITE Shaw Speer (projected Colby #4-6), before bowing out to Fung (projected Amherst #who the hell knows). He’s a hard worker who has paid his dues over the years, and will almost certainly get his shot at some point probably sooner rather than later. Kennedy is a bit of a wild card. The Bobcats’ top recruit this year, He played D-Flight at Midd, making the semis, and won a round at Bates before losing a tight one to Wang (projected Bowdoin #6-7). No experience, but almost anybody willing to work hard in Coach Gastonguay’s system has a shot at the lineup, and given how young most of the other options are seeing Kennedy play at some point would not surprise me.
As has become their norm, Bates kicks off their season on a “spring” break to California during the middle of February! However, unlike past years where Bates has jumped into the deep end with tough matches from the start, this year they have Chapman, Pomona-Pitzer and Cal Lu. Whether or not you think Bates is down, they should be able to take care of business against Chapman and Cal Lu, even in foreign territory. The big match for the week in Pomona, which is coming off a 5-4 tight win over Cal Tech. We don’t yet know if that score represents more about Cal Tech, Pomona, both or neither, but expectations have to be high for Bates here. Just because their ITA ranking says they are the 7th best team in the NESCAC and they lost three starters, doesn’t mean they can’t go into PP right now and take care of business.
Bates comes back to the east coast for a couple weeks and will renew their yearly Friend-valry with Brandeis, before hosting Hamilton and going to Midd in the same weekend. The Bates/Brandeis match is always well fought with respect between the two coaches, and Bates should be a heavy favorite against Hamilton and a heavy underdog at Midd. Then we get possibly the most interesting part of the schedule, the Bobcats’ trip to the Mid-Atlantic. In the past this has been a three team trip, but it seems like this year Bates will only play Hopkins and UMW both at UMW. We’ve already seen that the Eagles might be better than we originally anticipated in 2018, and these matches will be a good test to see where Bates is.
April brings the gauntlet of the NESCAC schedule as Bates hosts Amherst, Trinity Ct, Conn and Tufts, while going on the road to battle Wesleyan, Colby, and Bowdoin. The Amherst match in early April is a sneaky opportunity for the Cats as they will likely get to play a young Amherst team on the famous Bates indoor courts that have wreaked havoc in past years. Given that Bates does not play Williams this year, and what we saw last year from the NESCACs decision committee, a win over Amherst would likely qualify Bates for the post-season tournament as long as they also take care of business against Colby, Trinity, and Conn. Tufts presents Bates’ other best opportunity to qualify for NESCACs. Last year the Jumbos beat Bates, and Bates lost more to graduation than Tufts in the offseason. A big plus for the Bobcats that their two biggest matches in terms of post-season qualification come at home!
That being said, Bates’ road matches are tough this spring. The Bobcats will be significant underdogs at Wesleyan and Bowdoin, no matter how well they’ve fared against the Polar Bears over the past few years. The Colby match also presents a tricky situation. While a win over Amherst or Tufts likely means a trip to NESCACs, a loss to Colby likely spells the end. The fact that the match is at Colby, and sandwiched between two matches that might foolishly be considered “bigger” in Tufts and Bowdoin, give this all the trimmings of a trap match. Finally, Bates ends its regular season with a home match against MIT, which will serve as a nice tune-up for NCAAs for the Engineers and hopefully NESCACs for the Bobcats.
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