This year I’ve really taken my gift-giving to the next level. I’ve been giving family things that they’ll love, but that I will also benefit from. For my brother, he’s getting a gift card to a steakhouse, which he will likely invite me to join him at. I got my dad a pair of tickets to a 2018 pro tennis tournament with the (safe) assumption that I’ll be accompanying him. And while browsing at Trader Joe’s yesterday, instead of getting a bunch of fancy teas for myself, I got them to give to my mom knowing full well that she’ll say “help yourself!” right after opening it. As you can tell, I’m very proud of myself (maybe too proud).
Anyway…….the NCAC! That’s what you’re here for, so I’ll try to stay focused from here on out. No diversions like Snack of the Week until the season starts. While the top of the NCAC has been a one-team show for quite a while, this conference is still a lot of fun to follow thanks to a number of teams that are all pretty solid and evenly matched from year to year. While #1 has stayed constant for quite some time, there’s been much more variability at 2-8, with the depth, competitiveness, and overall level of the conference improving in recent years. Obviously the top storyline this spring is if anyone can beat Kenyon in the NCAC tournament, but there’s some other compelling things to follow—Denison’s impressive freshman class, how Oberlin follows up their best ever finish last spring, and if improving teams like Ohio Wesleyan and Wooster can take another step forward. All will be discussed below. Let’s get into it!
Location: Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania
2017 Order of Finish: 1. Kenyon 2. DePauw 3. Oberlin 4. Denison 5. Wabash 6. Ohio Wesleyan 7. Wooster 8. Wittenberg
2018 Team to Beat: Kenyon
Odds of Winning the Conference: Kenyon 74%, Denison 20%, Oberlin 3%, DePauw 2%, Everyone else 1%
Teams Profiles:
Kenyon Lords
The 11-time defending NCAC champions already have their own preview! Shoutout to NewD3Central for his excellent work on that article, and for the help he provided with this preview. The man/woman knows his stuff!
DePauw Tigers
Background: Coming into last spring, I had very low expectations for DePauw, but thanks to a couple transfers and some solid play all around, they actually put together a better-than-expected year, earning the top seed in the NCAC tournament (on a technicality, but still) and advancing to the finals with a win over Oberlin. The Tigers have typically found success with solid doubles, good depth down at the bottom of the singles lineup, and some scrappy guys up higher than can pull the occasional upset. Honestly, let’s just get this out of the way—there are a LOT of guys on DePauw’s roster that I don’t know anything about, and I’m probably going to be learning about them as the spring goes on.
Season Outlook: When I asked NewD3Central for his thoughts on DePauw in 2018, he described them using a word that I had never before heard used as an adjective. Let’s just say the word did not express an overwhelming sense of confidence in the Tigers, and I have to agree with those sentiments. The only guy (Petar Barcot, who played a nice #5 last year) on their UTR page that’s over an 11 isn’t listed on the official team roster, which is obviously not great. There are only three other guys besides him that have UTRs with 100% reliability, so I don’t feel too bad about not knowing a lot about this squad. They have a lot of freshmen, including three two-stars, so if those guys put in the work this offseason and develop well, DePauw could be more reloaded than expected. That said, there aren’t any clear indications that the rest of the NCAC should really consider DePauw a threat to win the conference this year. They appear to have taken a step back or perhaps stayed stagnant, while some of their top competitors have improved.
Schedule Thoughts: Notable February matches include a Chicago weekend where they will face both the Maroons and Coe. Anything but a complete drubbing vs UChicago will be a surprise, and I think Coe is the better team as well. The Kohawks won 5-4 last year, and as I’ll keep stressing, nothing indicates that DePauw has improved from last year. Kenyon made sure to schedule the Tigers this year to avoid another seeding controversy for the NCAC tournament, and that February 18th matchup will be a good indicator to really see where these teams are at. An interstate match against Earlham could be decently close, though I don’t think the Quakers are ready to pull that kind of upset yet. In March, the Tigers will have a Memphis weekend, playing Millsaps, Harding, and Rhodes. Millsaps and Rhodes are both good enough to beat the Tigers, though you’d have to talk to D3RegionalASouth to get more info on them. Their spring break is a strange one, as they travel to Sewanee, then go to Hilton Head for one match against UW-Whitewater, then head to Atlanta to play at Emory. Not sure they find a win despite all that driving. April is mostly NCAC matches though they also will play against Wash U and UT-Tyler the weekend before the NCAC tournament, which is great preparation. Overall, this schedule really gives DePauw to prove the haters (like me) wrong, with lots of chances for ranked wins and to get some momentum for the NCAC at the end of the spring. I’d say that not playing Oberlin could come back to haunt them when it comes to seeding, as they will want to avoid the #4 seed and a potential date with Kenyon in the semifinals, but the NCAC seeding is hard to predict anyway.
Key Player: I blabbed for a while in the schedule section so I’m keeping this brief. Greg Fraunheim. He had some good wins at 3 and 4 last year, and he’s likely the #1 this spring. That’s a big jump, but he’s the guy that probably gives the Tigers the best shot to be competitive up there.
Prediction: Despite a push from Wabash, DePauw holds off the Little Giants for the #4 seed in the NCAC and advances to the semifinals before falling to Kenyon.
Oberlin Yeomen
Background: The Yeomen have been on the verge of taking a big step forward for a while now, and last year’s victory over Denison in the NCAC 3rd place match marked a nice milestone in the program’s rise. Oberlin has continued to get better little by little, never taking a massive step forward but instead gradually improving, which is likely the more sustainable approach as the entire culture has a chance to shift as the team gets better. Last year’s senior class played a huge role in the team’s development, and while they will definitely leave a significant void, there’s still some talent left to keep this team solid. It’s definitely a bit concerning, though, that there is not a single freshman on the team. They’ve got enough upperclassmen depth that it shouldn’t be a huge issue in 2018, but down the road that could come back to hurt them.
Season Outlook: NewD3Central said that “Oberlin is gonna be a very different look this year.” I think that’s somewhat true, as the Yeoman will no longer have Ian Paik at the top of the lineup and Abraham Davis lurking down lower, but they’re still going to be looking for wins from the same guys, just at different spots. Michael Drougas is likely the #1, where he has the game to succeed I believe, but I am unsure if he’ll be able to maintain a high enough level match in and match out. D3 Tennis Name Legend Manickam Manickam will also be looked up to win higher in the lineup. While I don’t think the Yeoman are ready to beat Kenyon yet, how they fare against that next tier of DePauw and Denison is still very much up in the air, mostly because I don’t know what to expect from the other teams. When it’s all said and done I think Oberlin is about the same level as last year. Where that puts them in relation to Denison and DePauw is TBD.
Schedule Thoughts: Early February matches against Wabash and Kalamazoo will be helpful to give us a sense of where these teams are at. Oberlin should beat Wabash and Kalamazoo should beat Oberlin, but any result there wouldn’t shock me. The next weekend the Yeomen will get a test against the big boys when they face UChicago and Case Western, which is a heck of a couple of days. They’ll have an interesting weekend when they host Rochester and Hobart in early March. They beat Rochester 5-4 in a barn burner last year though I think Oberlin will win a bit more comfortably this time around, and against Hobart, I think it will be close, though I give a slight edge to the Statesmen. As I said in my Liberty League preview last week, I’m very excited for this match! Spring Break is in Orlando but the matches haven’t been posted yet, and after that it’s just NCAC matches up until the tournament. An April 22 match against Denison could be a preview of the NCAC #2 vs #3 semifinal the following weekend.
Key Player: I already mentioned Drougas, so I’ll say Stephen Grupposo. The sophomore is the only three-star on the roster and is going to be called upon to play #2. Last spring he was very impressive, going 17-2 at #3 and #4, only losing to Lewis & Clark and Case Western. I feel good about him making the move up to #2 this spring, and if Drougas struggles at the top spot, I could see Grupposo getting his shot there. A lot of Oberlin’s success last year happened when they were able to get some points at 1 and 2. If these two can combine to do that again, that’s great news for the Yeoman.
Prediction: I touched on it above, but as of now I think Oberlin finishes the NCAC at third once again.
Denison Big Red
Background: I’m very tired and want to go to sleep, but the excitement of Denison’s 2018 prospects is going to pull me through here. How can I not be excited and intrigued by their freshman class? The Big Red bring in SIX recruits, including Vlad Rotnov (TRN #155) and Mitchell Thai (TRN #161). All of their top six have UTRs above 11, and their Power 6 of 69 is actually one point better than Kenyon. The numbers speak for themselves—on paper, Denison is a legitimate threat. Coach Burling also brings plenty of experience to the table and a track record of good development, which leaves me pretty optimistic about the state of the program right now.
Season Outlook: With the talent they’ve got, Big Red fans are probably thinking NCAC title or bust. While beating Kenyon is not at all out of the question, I would push back on those expectations a bit, considering this is still a young team with a lot to prove, and the fact that Kenyon is 11-time defending champ. That doesn’t happen by accident, especially in a conference where there have been plenty of good teams to compete against through the years. Sticking with my theme of the offseason of not picking against the team the beat, I still say Denison isn’t ready to win the conference yet, but 2018 could be the year we look back on in a few years and say “that was the turning point for Denison.”
Schedule Thoughts: An early season match against Chicago will be a good test, though they’re not going to beat the Maroons (seriously, I feel like I write this sentence about every Central team I cover…). Kzoo in early March is a key regional match that I’m sure Denison is very much looking forward to, as it is a great chance to move up in the rankings. On spring break they’ll face Hope, a team that’s not bad but that Denison should be able to handle. Down in Orlando they also take on Babson and Hobart. Babo is solid but I don’t think they have the depth, although this is a match Denison better not take too lightly. Hobart vs Denison is a fun one and it’s hard to predict, but I’m a fan of any match between Central and Northeast teams that I cover. CMU and Wash U are both nice chances to compete with some of the top teams, and while a win is likely out of reach, those will be a chance for some good experience, especially for the young guys. I like that Denison is playing DePauw, Oberlin, and Kenyon in the regular season, which will hopefully make their seeding more straightforward but also give them a good look at their main competition for the NCAC title.
Key Player: Kevin Brown. The junior played #1 last year and despite a sub par fall, I think his experience will make him a huge part of this team in the spring. If he plays at #1 again, he’ll be valuable even if he’s just a sacrificial lamb, as he’ll allow some of the freshman to hopefully flourish lower in the lineup. And if someone else takes the #1 spot from him, watch out for Kevin to do some real damage at #2 or #3. Never underestimate the value of playing experience at #1.
Prediction: Denison has a great year, finishes in the regional top 10 and somewhere in the 30s in the national rankings, but falls short in a pretty close match against Kenyon in the NCAC championship, leaving the team hungry and motivated for the years to come.
Wabash Little Giants
W.A.F. That acronym can mean whatever you want it to mean. Wabash tends to always put together a respectable team despite no big time recruits and the challenge of recruiting to an all male school. This year, the Little Giants bring in only one freshman TRN #567 Josias Kemker, while losing one of their top dogs in Michael Makio. NewD3Central stressed how big a loss this is going to be both on and off court, saying that Makio was the glue that kept this team together. It’ll be key to see if anyone can step into this role. Will Reifeis also has top of the lineup experience and as a veteran who’s been through a lot with this team, he’s definitely a prime candidate to fill Makio’s shoes as best he can. Patrick McAuley is another guy who will be looked up to win up higher in the lineup, and the junior has proven to be a solid doubles threat as well. While Reifeis didn’t play in the fall, he and McAuley could make up a great #1 doubles team, having been paired together since high school at North Central in Indianapolis.
I’m not going to go through the entire schedule, but one match I will highlight is against Wheaton on February 24th. The Thunder won a 5-4 battle this year and after losing some key pieces, Wabash has a good shot at revenge. Other out of conference matches that present good opportunities (not necessarily to win, but to make a statement at least) include Kalamazoo, Augustana, UW-Whitewater, Rose-Hulman, and Wash U.
Ohio Wesleyan Battling Bishops
The deeper we get into the conference, the less I know about the teams. For a perennial sixth place or lower team, OWU is pretty solid. Senior Shouta Fukamachi and junior Diego Venegas give the Battling Bishops a chance in most matches at #1 and #2, and I could see one of them getting into the regional rankings this year. With there not being a ton of proven great players at 1-2 in the NCAC, they should be in just about every match. This fall Shouta had a nice win over Kevin Brown (Denison) at the Kenyon invite and also a solid run to the Round of 16 ITAs. Besides them, OWU is more of a mystery to me. Jack Hibbard also had some good results this fall, so I’d put my money on him to play a big role. Their schedule is pretty standard with a few interesting non conference regional opponents, though the one outlier to that is an April 22nd match at home against NYU. Why is NYU going all the way to Ohio just a few days before UAAs? That’s a question for another time.
College of Wooster Fighting Scots
NewD3Central thinks Wooster will surpass OWU and could give Wabash a run for their money. A direct quote: “Big Titas Fan” Titas Bera actually finished 2017 ranked 11th in the region, which means he could be in the conversation for an NCAA bid this spring. That’s absolutely a long shot, but I’m saying there’s a chance. They brought in three international recruits this year, but judging by fall results and UTRs none of them appear to be huge game changers. Honestly I don’t think Wooster has the depth to surpass OWU and definitely not Wabash in 2018, but this team has made some positive strides in recent years and I’m hoping they can continue on that trajectory with Titas Bera (great name, by the way) leading the charge.
Wittenberg Tigers
Remember when Martin Mora had a couple of very impressive wins out of nowhere last April? No? Well, Wittenberg’s #1 did, beating Kevin Brown (Denison) and Dan Rodefeld (DePauw). The senior from Ecuador is back this time around, and that’s all I know about Wittenberg. They made the NCAC tournament last year thanks to a 6-3 win over Allegheny, and I’d say a repeat of that is about all you can ask for or expect from the Tigers in 2018.
Allegheny Gators
Allegheny used to be better when they had Patrick Cole and Thomas Manning. The fact that I can name two notable Allegheny alumni shows how good they were. Cole particularly was more than once on the cusp of making nationals, I believe (I might be misremembering). Anyone know why they are called the Gators?
Another long preview in the books! Shoutout to the NCAC teams for having good athletic websites! I’m going to be taking a little break from the previews next week for the holiday, but I’ll be back before you know it with another preview. Next up is my only traditional one team preview: NYU. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Oberlin had 1 freshamn this fall (Matt Porges) but it looks like he is transferring to NYU