2018 Season Preview: Liberty League (UPDATED)

I’m pretty pumped for this preview. I was taking a look at the list of all the conferences I’m going to preview, and I have to admit that the Liberty League is the most interesting. We have three teams in the ITA top 40, a fourth team that’s lovably scrappy, and an added twist of another solid team joining the conference this year!  Thankfully, everyone plays each other during the regular season, so we should have lots of interesting matchups throughout the spring, culminating with a four-team postseason tournament for the NCAA bid. The fight to win the conference should be great, but I’m also curious to see how the battle for the final spot in the postseason goes as well.  Anyway, let’s take a look at who we’re dealing with.

Location: Upstate New York (At least in my eyes. I know some people have very strong opinions about what exactly constitutes “Upstate”)

2017 Order of Finish: 1. Skidmore 2. Hobart 3. RPI 4. Vassar 5. St. Lawrence 6. RIT 7. Union 8. Bard

2018 Team to Beat: Skidmore

Odds of Winning the Conference: Skidmore 52%, RPI 35%, Hobart 10%, Vassar 2%, Everyone else 1%

Team Profiles:

Skidmore Thoroughbreds

Background: The highest ranked team that I have the pleasure of covering (ITA National #24, ITA NE #10, Blog #22), Skidmore comes into the spring as four-time defending Liberty League champions. While many expected them to struggle after the graduation of Kai-Yuen Leung, the Thoroughbreds had an excellent fall, particularly from sophomore JT Wynne. Winning the Northeast ITA (where most of his competition comes from the Liberty League) in both singles and doubles (with senior Steven Koulouris) is a great sign that Skidmore will be okay in the post Kai-Yuen era. It feels like we were having these same thoughts about whether Skidmore would survive losing a true stud a few years ago, in that case regarding Oliver Loutsenko. Obviously things worked out okay, so there’s no reason not to think it will be similar this time around. Also, don’t discount the addition of assistant coach Matt Kandath, a local guy who played Junior US Open and at Stanford. Having him hit in during practices certainly won’t hurt!

Season Outlook: With Kai-Yuen, Skidmore might have gotten a bit spoiled knowing they were, at worst, 50/50 at #1. It’s a big ask for Wynne to fill those shoes, and it’s probably going to be more of a team effort, especially between him, Koulouris and fellow senior Lucas Pickering.  The latter two have been huge contributors throughout the lineup during their careers, and their leadership on and off the court will be a huge determining factor in how Skidmore does this year. Despite his terrific fall, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Koulouris manning the top spot and Wynne at #2 to start the spring. I think Wynne is much more dangerous at #2 (though isn’t everybody?) and Koulouris has the game to go toe-to-toe at #1 on a more consistent basis. I may end up eating these words, and I probably shouldn’t doubt JT after his fall performance, but my gut is telling me Koulouris at #1 and Wynne at #2 is the better order.
     I guess we should also talk a bit about the lower part of the lineup. If we’re going to see a freshman in there, it will be Kevin Ha (D Flight finalist at Midd Invite) or Yuqi Wang. Sophomore Jack McClaren had some solid results this fall and I think he could be a good #6, while senior Ted Berkowitz has the game and experience to succeed at #5, though probably not much higher than that.  Junior Travis Leaf is another guy who will definitely be right in the thick of the Skidmore lineup, probably at #3 or #4. The lefty has a pretty big game and when he’s on he can be very dangerous, though he’ll definitely take his lumps up at #3 or #4.  Projecting lineups is pretty futile, but these are the names to look out for. We’ll let Coach Simms decide the lineup!
    Predicting doubles is also pretty useless, but Skidmore is traditionally a very solid doubles team. Koulouris and Wynne should be a great #1, and I think Skidmore should be favored to be up after doubles in all conference matches.

Schedule Thoughts: Let’s start with non-conference matches: Skidmore has NYU, CMS, Bowdoin, Stevens, Midd, Tufts, and MIT. What a great schedule! Props to Coach Simms for putting his team out there and giving them so many opportunities to show what they are made of!  NYU has pulled off the upset before, but I think Skidmore will be ready for that one and will send a message with a solid early-season victory.  CMS is in another weight class, and Bowdoin is also a heavy favorite (though I give Skidmore a small chance at the upset in that one). Stevens should be a comfortable win, Midd will be too strong, and Tufts and MIT could both be battles. On paper I give the edge to the Boston teams in both those matches, but we’ll reevaluate when we get closer.
     As far as Liberty League matches go, I love that we’ll get to see how they stack up against all these teams before we even get to the tournament. Skidmore will finish in the top 4 without a problem, and will likely be a 1 or 2 seed. They’ll want to win out in the regular season to get the top seed, as the 2-3 semifinal match will be more competitive than the 1-4.
     Overall, I’m a huge fan of Skidmore’s schedule, and I think the way Coach Simms really challenges his team is part of why they traditionally seem to step it up in the big moments.

Key Player: JT Wynne. It’s an easy answer, but JT is probably one of the more compelling players in Division III this year. Keeping up his success from the fall will not only serve to prove it wasn’t just a fluke run in a weak ITA, but that he’s legitimately made the step up from a decent #4 to a strong #1 in just one year. And beyond just making a point about himself as a player, as I’ve said, a lot of Skidmore’s success this year will hinge on how well Wynne plays. No pressure, JT 😉

Prediction: I still refuse to go against the favorites that have been there before. While RPI will pose a serious threat in 2018, when it’s all said and done I think Skidmore runs the table in the conference and heads to NCAAs for a fifth straight year.

Hobart Statesmen

Background: ASouth loves to say that I love Hobart, and he might be right.  VERY quietly, the Statesmen finished 2017 ranked #34 in the ITA National Rankings, their best finish is quite some time, perhaps ever. What I love about this team is that they’ve just slowly been getting better every year for a while now.  Teams they used to lose to they’re now beating, and right now they’re still under most people’s radars, so I feel very hipster to be such a big fan.
     Anyway, Hobart loses a tricky (when he was in the lineup) Michael Rusk and doubles specialist Danny Kot this year, and with only one recruit (TRN #484 Walker Anderson) it’s going to be up to the upperclassmen to really take a step forward if Hobart wants to take yet another step forward from last year’s appearance in the Liberty League Finals.

Season Outlook: I hate to say it, but I think Hobart is a team that’s one or two pieces short right now. You know what they need? A doubles specialist and a solid bottom of the lineup guy. Too bad both of those two graduated last year. It’s certainly possible that someone will step up this year and surprise me, but as of now, I think Hobart is going to struggle to keep up with Skidmore and RPI in the lower half of the lineup. Sophomore Alan Dubrovsky, and juniors Jonah Salita and Jonathan Atwater make up a really solid top #3, and Harry Nichols is okay at #4, but 5 and 6 are real question marks for ‘Bart. Joe Mallon, Patrick Gray, and the freshman Anderson are the only three other guys on the roster, and I expect they’ll all get their chance to show what they’ve got.
     Doubles wise, Salita and Dubrovsky are a very dangerous #1, and Atwater and Nicholas have experience together as a very good #3 and I think they’ll transition nicely to #2. Down at #3, like with #5-6 singles, it’s more of a mystery.

Schedule Thoughts:  Some nice, new out of conference matches for Hobart this year. They’ll make a trip to Ohio for the first time I can remember to play Oberlin and Case Western (seriously, who doesn’t play Case?). I’m really looking forward to seeing the Oberlin results as I don’t usually get much crossover between my Northeast and Central teams. Case should also be a good experience, because you haven’t lived until you’ve had 20 guys yelling “On it!” after every missed first serve.

Spring Break: Orlando matches are still not posted, but back in the Northeast they’ll host Stevens in late March. It says a lot that the Ducks are traveling five hours to go play Hobart in the hopes of winning and improving their ranking, as just a few years ago the roles would’ve been reversed.  In April, Hobart will host the University of Rochester, another team that consistently beat Hobart up until just last year, but this time around the Statesmen should be in control. Rounding out the out-of-conference schedule is a home match against Hamilton, a team that’s been without a coach for months and is unlikely to scare Hobart.

Key Player: Alan Dubrovsky. The sophomore got better as his freshman year went on, and this fall only lost one match—to ITA Champ JT Wynne. If Dubrovsky can continue his rapid ascension, he could become one of the top players in the Northeast outside of the NESCAC. It’ll also be huge for Hobart if he can be a consistent source of points at #1, a position Hobart has traditionally struggled at. It’ll also be key to see if he can keep up his strong play with Jonah Salita at #1 doubles.

Prediction: As I’ve written this, I’ve convinced myself Hobart has a better shot at winning the conference than I initially thought. Still, expectations have to be tempered with so many question marks regarding depth. And with only seven guys on the roster, even one injury could be tough to recover from, and the likelihood of a team making it through the season without at least some physical issue is small. Hobart is good enough to make the LL tournament as a top-3 seed, but as of now I see them as the third best team in the conference. Still, I think Hobart should be able to maintain their ranking this year and hopefully reload to really make an even bigger push at the conference title in 2019.

Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Background: RPI is another team that has risen from nothing into a very respectable program and has been knocking on the door for a while, unable to get over the hump and win the Liberty League despite some strong teams and individual players along the way. I’ve always felt like RPI is just missing a certain something, even when the talent has been there. Last year was a good example, as the team had plenty of talent but really underwhelmed, losing to Skidmore, Hobart twice, and Ithaca. RPI has a history of strong doubles, though it was inconsistent last year. In some ways, RPI reminds me of MIT—plenty of talent, rigorous academics, and teams that struggle to maximize their potential. We’ll see if 2018 is different for either set of Engineers.

Season Outlook: Some strong performances from freshmen Brian Niguidula and Andrew Imrie were very encouraging, while Clay Thompson, RPI’s top recruit, also figures to be a key contributor. Sophomore Sebastian Castillo-Sanchez showed flashes of brilliance last year, and I legitimately think he’s got the talent to be a very good #1 in the Northeast.  Seniors Tristan Wise and McKinley Wise also figure to be fixtures in the lineup, though there are some serious question marks surrounding both. Wise really struggled at #3 last spring, and the jury is still out as to whether Grimes, who did play in the fall, will be able to fully return to the level he was at before a significant injury caused him to miss an entire year. A noteable absence this year is Xavier Oshinowo, who finished had some great wins as a freshman and finished the spring playing #1. He’s not on the roster and didn’t play this fall, so I wouldn’t expect to see him this year. Still, while there are some question marks, there’s a lot to like about this team, and I think RPI is going to make some real positive strides at improving from a so-so 2017.

Schedule Thoughts: Out of conference: Rochester, Midd, Colby-Sawyer, Stevens, Kenyon, UT-Tyler, TCNJ, Tufts. Some good matches in there. Rochester pushed RPI to the brink last year, but I think RPI cruises this time to open the spring. Midd should be a good experience and I think RPI might actually steal a point or two there. Colby-Sawyer is just a Spring Break tune-up, while Stevens should be a closer affair. RPI barely beat Stevens last year, and I think, similarly to Rochester, RPI will win more comfortably this time. Kenyon and UT-Tyler should be great tests, and while I’m not sure RPI is ready to beat either yet, an upset wouldn’t stun me at all. TCNJ will be a key Northeast regional matchup, and Tufts another great shot at a big win before heading into the LL tournament.

Key Player: So many options! I’ll go with McKinley Grimes, who was at one point a real threat in both singles and doubles. The fifth-year senior suffered a brutal injury, so for him to even be back on the court is a victory. His fall results were unremarkable, but that’s understandable given the long layoff. If he can get back to his old form, Grimes will be a great #2 or #3 and could fit in well anywhere in the doubles lineup. He’s a bit of a wild card, but he’s a guy I’ve only heard good things about and am hoping he is able to finish his career with a great year.

Prediction: Look for RPI to start to put things together this year. A year of experience for last year’s big recruiting class will be hugely valuable, and paired with the wealth of talent, RPI has one of their best seasons in team history. While I’m still not going against Skidmore in the LL tournament until proven wrong, RPI definitely poses a significant threat in 2018.

Vassar Brewers

Background: The Brewers are the last non-Skidmore team to win the Liberty League, taking the crown in 2013. Since then, Vassar had a coaching change and took a dip, but Coach Alex Wong seems to have them back on the right track, as they put together a better-than-expected 2017, finishing fourth in the conference and #17 in the Northeast. Vassar is a very highly rated Liberal Arts School and has the academics to compete with some of the NESCACs in terms of recruiting, as evidenced by some of their recruiting classes in recent history. The Vassar women, for example, just brought in the #14 class in the country, led by four-star Frances Cornwall. No reason similar classes can’t happen for the men, too.

Season Outlook: The Brewers will sorely miss their #1 Nick Litsky, who wasn’t elite, but gave them a chance at the top of the lineup and was always a threat to pull an upset. Without Litsky anchoring the top of the lineup, I’m not sure where Vassar’s most consistent spots for points will be. Allen Sokolov is the likely heir to the top spot, and while the sophomore definitely has some game, he’ll be overmatched at #1. The graduation of Juan Felipe Laso will also leave a hole in the middle of the lineup, as the tenacious grinder had his fair share of big wins through his career.  Freshmen Adam Krueger (split sets with Dubrovsky) and David Gandham (beat Piatos from NYU) both gave at least some indication that they’ll in the lineup this spring, and if they turn out to have good springs, I think Vassar can at least maintain their ranking and have a similar year to 2017.

Schedule Thoughts: I remember raving about Vassar’s schedule last year, and I again think Coach Wong did a good job here, with a nice balance of teams. Non conference opponents are Rochester, Clark, NYU, Coast Guard (who actually beat Vassar in the fall of 2016), Caltech, Trinity CT, Chapman, Case Western, MIT, and Tufts. Hats off to Coach Wong and Vassar Athletics for making such an impressive schedule happen! Their rematch with Rochester should be interesting, as Vassar had an epic comeback (alternatively, you could say Rochester choked) on their lightning fast home court last year. While Rochester is down this year, don’t discount the home court advantage for the Yellowjackets. Other matches that I think will be close are Trinity CT, Caltech (maybe? I don’t know too much about this iteration of the Beavers), and Chapman. The biggest match of the year for Vassar is probably against Ithaca, as that will most likely determine who gets the fourth spot in the Liberty League tournament. I’m sure improving or maintaining their ranking would be nice, but I would imagine the season can’t be considered a success unless they, at the very least, make the Liberty League tournament.

Key Player: Jeremy Auh. The diminutive (though he’s apparently looking to change that!) sophomore had some nice results as a freshman at #5, and what stuck out to me was that he never got blown out, despite facing some tough competition. If he can step up this year and hold down the fort at #3 or #4 and be a consistent source of points, that could make a huge difference for the Brewers. I almost see Auh as the next Juan Felipe Laso, though perhaps even better. With a year of experience under his belt, Auh will also be looked upon to bring some strong doubles play, which has not been a strong area for Vassar traditionally.
https://twitter.com/JearDaBearr/status/776460955958009856
Prediction: Vassar embraces their role as a scrappy upstart and beats the teams they need to beat to stay where they are in the rankings. I’m trying to avoid predicting specific match results so far in advance, but since I think Vassar will make the LL tournament as the #4 seed, you can put two and two together to figure out what that means for their match vs Ithaca.

Ithaca Bombers

Background: Ithaca is usually right on the cusp of being relevant, thanks to one or two big wins per year. Last year, it was over RPI, a bizarre result that kept them higher in the rankings than the rest of their results would’ve suggested they deserved.  The most interesting thing about Ithaca this year is that they are NEW to the Liberty League. Formerly the perpetual runners up to Stevens in the Empire 8, Ithaca—a strong sports school—is probably a better fit in the Liberty League anyway, so it’s great to have them in the mix. As a result of the move, their schedule is already much more beefed up than in the past, which might make for a sobering year, but could also help with recruiting down the road.

Season Outlook: The transition to a much stronger conference might be a tough one. As I said above, their season is pretty much going to come down to the match vs Vassar, unless they can again pull an upset over a Hobart or RPI (very unlikely, but not impossible). It’s tough to have a good idea about how Ithaca stacks up against their new conference foes, because there isn’t much history of them playing each other, and the most memorable recent result (their upset over RPI) just doesn’t feel like a match I should be basing too much off of. Honestly, besides the Greek Freak Minos Stavrakas at #1, none of the rest of Ithaca’s starters really stick out right now. We’ll see who put in the hard work this offseason, though. Ithaca has the baseline level of talent that, with the right group of hungry, hardworking guys, could overperform.

Schedule Thoughts: Say goodbye to easy wins over the likes of Alfred, Elmira, and the LEGENDARY Utica College (not sarcastic! Look through last year’s roster). Ithaca will be challenged much more this year with their conference schedule, though it looks like Coach Austin has also added some additional out of conference matches to further bulk up the schedule, TCNJ should be a good challenge, and I’ll be interested to see how Ithaca matches up against Trinity CT and Conn College. There are surprisingly few matches between New England and New York teams, so those will be useful to see who really deserves to be in that 15-20 range in the rankings.

Key Player: Minos Stavrakas. The sophomore is a flashy player with a lot of skill, and while he’s had his moments, I think an even better year is well within the realm of possibility. Any Ithaca upset is going to pretty much require him to win in both singles and doubles, so a lot is riding on Ithaca’s top dog. I’d also say that there is going to be a key player to be determined early in the spring, Someone is going to make a big jump in the lineup, and whoever that guy is, he’s going to be very important, not only in terms of winning matches, but also as far as motivating this group and getting them all to follow his lead.

Prediction: Ithaca gets a lot better as the spring goes on and gets a lot of valuable experience in their first year in the Liberty League, but falls to Vassar and misses the LL tournament. (side note: The HUGE Ithaca vs Vassar match is on March 31st at Vassar. This is very important, especially if it’s indoors. Vassar’s indoor courts are like glass, whereas Ithaca’s are slow. I don’t see how Ithaca has a chance if they play indoors at Vassar.)

Everyone Else
I’d love to give more love to St. Lawrence, RIT, Union, and Bard, but i’ve got to stop writing at some point. Here’s at least a little something I know about all these teams. (I probably should’ve done this for the Heartland teams as well, but I legitimately hadn’t even heard of some of those schools)

St. Lawrence
Another team that’s slowly improving a la Hobart. They’ve already got four recruits for 2018, and this young team could be in the conversation of making the Liberty League tournament in a couple years.

RIT
Another team that’s been improving! They’ve got a new head coach this year and based on current trajectories, they might be able to push crosstown rivals U of Rochester in another year or two, possibly beating them for the first time since 2011.

Union
The Dutchmen have also taken some positive steps in recent years, adding more depth to a team that used to have just one or two decent players. They will likely battle with RIT for seventh in the LL this year. They are one of the few D3 teams with twins on the roster. Shoutout to Max and Austin Egna!.

Bard
Bard’s mascot is the Raptors. That’s pretty unique and cool! It’s also the alma mater of actor Jonah Hill.

Alright, there you go! Now all we can do is wait and see how wrong I was. Hope you all have been enjoying our season previews! I may or may not have another preview out before the holidays, but I’ll keep you all posted via Twitter about when to expect my next post, which should be similarly gargantuan as I take a look at the NCAC. Anyway, thanks as always for reading! Click the ad to your right! Donate to the Blog at the link above if you have the means and enjoy our work! And comment below! Was great to have a few comments on my last preview, and would love some more discussion here!

UPDATE 10:43 PM: I’ve been informed that the Liberty League tournament will now feature SIX teams, up from four. This will make that 1 or 2 seed all the more important. One of Hobart, Skidmore, or RPI will have to play an extra match if they want to win the tournament, which could make a huge difference. It also gives us a compelling battle for the final spot! St. Lawrence, RIT, and Union are all in the running here.