NCAA Quarterfinal Preview: No. 4 Bowdoin vs No. 5 Wash U
Welcome to the penultimate QF preview, boys and girls. This is the QF that the bloggers are most excited about, and the poll on the left side of the site says that you agree. We have D3AS and D3Regional (the headmaster and Hagrid of the blog) to help break down Wash U’s side, along with my take on the defending NCAA champs. Both teams breezed through their respective regionals, but now it’s onto bigger and tougher things. Wash U has been the most consistent team in DIII over the past decade, while Bowdoin is looking to break the NCAA champion hangover streak. Based on UTR Power 6, this should be the closest QF match, and my guess is that we will have bloggers on both sides of the aisle when it comes to prediction time. Is it all just a little bit of history repeated, or does the dancing polar bear get to bust at least one more move?
BOWDOIN
Power 6: 74.66 Luke Tercek (12.29), Grant Urken (13.13), Kyle Wolfe (12.44), Jerry Jiang (11.93), Gil Roddy (13.03), Justin Patel (11.84).
Route to the Quarterfinals: Bowdoin earned the NESCAC’s Pool-A bid to NCAAs by winning the conference tournament as a #4 seed. The Polar Bears were struggling going into the postseason, but they avenged three previous losses in three consecutive days to win the NESCAC (Bates, Wesleyan and Midd). Bowdoin earned the overall #4 seed (I think, it’s still never really clear who is the #4 and who is the #5) in the bracket, and earned a bye to the round of 32 while hosting their own region. The defending champs rolled through Nichols in their first match, then took down MIT by putting the kibosh on the doubles, giving up a total of six games. MIT took the first sets at each of the top four spots, but Roddy and Patel ended the drama before it began by winning at #5 and #6 in straight sets to clinch Bowdoin’s second consecutive quarterfinal appearance.
Why they’ll win: They don’t have any glaring weaknesses, they play good doubles, they are very deep, they certainly have important NCAA experience, and they seem to be playing their best tennis of the year when it matters most. Sounds like a recipe for success to me.
Why they won’t: Their singles looked suspect against MIT last weekend, and they will definitely be facing a tougher crew on Monday. While Bowdoin does have NCAA experience, they don’t have any seniors this year, so somebody will have to step up even more to try and fill the shoes of Trinka and Savage and lead this team when the going gets toughest. Finally, the Guru’s favorite stat, in the past seven years no defending champion has made the Final Four the following year. Tough to argue with history, or the Guru for that matter.
X-Factor: Grant Urken. Urken was undefeated as a #6 singles player last year, but has stepped his game up this year and been a very dependable #2 player. Bowdoin’s weakest doubles spot is their top team of Urken and Tercek, and if the big boys can get the point at #1, they should be in great shape. Urken will likely be facing off with John Carswell, senior, in singles. It’s always tough to play a senior in what could be his last match. Urken will be favored in this match, but not overwhelmingly. If the sophomore can come up with at least one point on Monday, Bowdoin will be in decent shape, if he goes 2/2 I think Bowdoin will be moving onto the semis!
WASH U
Power 6: 73.99 Johnny Wu (12.55), John Carswell (12.50), Jason Haugen (12.20), Bernardo Neves (12.17), Jeremy Bush (12.48), JJ Kroot (12.09).
Route to the Quarterfinals: Wash U won two 5-1 matches, the first over Rose Hulman and the second over Kenyon. Both matches were fairly comfortable, as Wash U really flexed its singles depth over both teams after a 2-1 doubles lead.
Why they’ll win: Clutch play, doubles, and depth. Wash U always seems to come up with a huge doubles performance when they need it (UAA semis against Chicago being just one example), and this is a match where a doubles lead will be pretty crucial given how close the singles matches will likely be. Wash U is one of the best coached teams in the country, and they certainly will not come out flat. In singles, they are incredibly deep with the senior Jeremy Bush playing #5 and a couple of freshmen playing around him, and I think those #4-6 matches will all be fantastic.
Why they won’t: They aren’t really favored in any one singles match against Bowdoin, which very well could be a problem. Wash U’s most experienced positions, Carswell at #2 and Bush at #5, also happen to be Bowdoin’s best spots, with Urken and Roddy. I like Wu to grind down Tercek, but I wouldn’t say I’m particularly confident at any other spot.
X-Factor: Jeremy Bush, senior. The man has been incredibly clutch this year, especially in two three-set wins against Chicago, and he is going to have an unbelievable match with Gil Roddy. Similar to NE saying that if Bowdoin gets 2 from Urk, they will win, I think Wash U will have a heck of a shot to get through if they get 2 from Bush. Of course, both of these things very well could happen and then one of us will be wrong, but I’m wrong about a lot of things.
ASouth Thoughts: If you didn’t know, D3Regional filled out the above section and I am now tagging in to give you my thoughts and the match by match preview. This was my favorite quarterfinal matchup when mentioned in POTW and that means I have to at least give my two cents. I think Wash U is gonna win this match. That being said, I have been wrong more times than I’ve been right, but the combination of Wash U being the healthiest they’ve been all year and Coach Follmer has be believing in the Bears. As you saw from NE’s numbers article, they have the most NCAA experience of any team right now, they have one of the best coaches in DIII, and they have a couple senior leaders who can lead them past the defending champions. Plus, the fact that Bowdoin has been a bit up and down this year gives me some faith that the consistent Wash U team can do what they always seem to do at this junction of the year – step up and take it to a potentially better opponent. Regional gave a good breakdown already, so let me just handle the match by match from here.
MATCH BY MATCH PREVIEW
#1 Doubles: Tercek/Urken (Bowdoin) vs. Haugen/Kozlowski (Wash U).
NE: Interesting match here at #1 doubles because neither team is a lock. Both have played well at points, and both have big serving guys who can hit you off the court. This Bowdoin #1 team has been good at points this year, but are more up and down than the Bears top duo. Wash U, 8-5.
AS: The team of Haugen/Kozlowski have been consistently solid all year, and it seems from their record that they basically have a 50/50 shot to win high level matches at the #1 spot. They’ve split their year with Chicago, lost to Emory, beaten Pomona, and a whole lot of other W/Ls in between. The two have played together despite Haugen’s unknown injury that somehow disallowed him from playing singles but allowed him to play doubles, and that’s good for team chemistry. The Bowdoin team has basically been the same way all year making this an extremely tough prediction to make. I love the returns of the Bears and I will hesitantly take them in a really close match. Wash U 9-8 (7).
#2 Doubles: Jiang/Wolfe (Bowdoin) vs Bush/Kroot (Wash U).
NE: This match totally contrasts styles, as Kroot is a go big or go home guy, while Wolfe and Jiang are two of the most consistent players out there. Look for the Polar Bears to weather the storm and come out on top. Bowdoin, 8-5.
AS: The Bush/Kroot team is a big name for Wash U, but they’ve followed their #1 counterparts with a series of wins followed by losses pretty much all year. Another interesting thing to note is that when they lose, they lose big, and when they win, they win big. That’s mostly because Bush and Kroot are pretty streaky players, and it will all depend on which one of both of them shows up for this match. Jiang/Wolfe are one of Bowdoin’s best performing teams and I think they will really need one here. When it all comes down to it, I’m super high on both Bush and Kroot this year and I think they have that “it” factor. That shows up in this match. Wash U 8-3.
#3 Doubles: Patel/Roddy (Bowdoin) vs. Neves/Vishnubholta (Wash U).
NE: Two very good anchor teams, but Roddy and Patel have played well together all year long. When it comes to NCAAs, chemistry matters even more. This Bowdoin team doesn’t usually play close matches, but I think they come up big with an unusually close win here. Bowdoin, 9-7.
AS: Since Follmer put Neves and Vishnubholta together, they have two losses – one against Chicago, which they avenged, and one against Emory on that fateful day of the UAA Finals. They’ll be facing off against one of the best #3 teams in the country in Patel/Roddy and this is another swing match. I think that Wash U has the opportunity to potentially sweep on the right day but Bowdoin is too good to let that happen. Bowdoin 8-3.
#1 Singles: Luke Tercek (Bowdoin-junior) vs Johnny Wu (Wash U-junior).
NE: Massive difference in styles of play here. Tercek is at his best when he is serving and volleying, while Wu is one of, if not the best toughest grinders in all of DIII. For what it’s worth (very little), D3AS will love that Johnny recently joined the Twittersphere again. Luke has struggled at times this year, just like Wu, but we’ve seen Tercek play his best tennis at NCAAs before. I think this is a long match, and might well end unfinished. Wash U leads, 4-6, 6-3, 5-3.
AS: This is an interesting matchup between two guys that seem to be a little overmatched at #1 singles. Wu doesn’t really have many big wins this year other than a win against Chua in a regular season matchup, while Tercek has lost 8 of his past 9 against a variety of opponents. This one is a tough one to pick because the difference in styles, but I think this will be Wu’s biggest win of the year with his grinding style. Wash U, 6-4, 2-6, 6-3.
#2 Singles: Grant Urken (Bowdoin-sophomore) vs. John Carswell (Wash U-senior).
NE: Urken is one of the toughest players out there. He has the NCAA experience, even as a sophomore, so I don’t think he will be intimidated by the senior on the other side of the court. Carswell’s name carries more weight than his game of late, and I think Urken continues his hot play and puts an early Polar Bear point on the board. Bowdoin, 6-4, 6-2.
AS: A matchup between the senior Carswell and the up and coming #2 singles player in Grant Urken poses to be a damn good match. Carswell has been on a slide at #2 singles, losing his past 5 – while Urken has won his past 5. In years past, this one might have gone to the Bear Senior, but this is not years past. Bowdoin 6-2, 6-3.
#3 Singles: Kyle Wolfe (Bowdoin-junior) vs. Jason Haugen (Wash U-junior).
NE: Bowdoin, 3-6, 6-4, 6-1 (for the clinch!)
AS: Wolfe started the year super hot, but has since cooled off. Haugen has barely played any singles this year due to his mystery injury. While the addition of Haugen is one of the main reasons why I think Wash U wins this match, let’s remember that it’s pretty damn tough to come back from an injury to play a good player in hot temperatures at nationals. While I’d love to pick the redemption story with Haugen, I just don’t think he’ll be able to hang. Bowdoin 6-4, 6-4.
#4 Singles: Jerry Jiang (Bowdoin-sophomore) vs. Bernardo Neves (Wash U-freshman).
NE: Which Jerry Jiang will we see? The one who struggled for most of the year, or the one who was on fire at NESCACs, beating the Bates #4 0&0 and then knocking off Kyle Schlanger (Midd) in the tournament finals (Schlanger had beaten him 2&2 earlier in the season). Jiang certainly has the experience edge, even as just a sophomore, as he was the clinching win against Hopkins in Bowdoin’s epic comeback in last year’s NCAA QF. Neves has been the stronger player this year though, and it’s tough to pick against him. Wash U, 7-6(4), 6-3.
AS: Jiang has not had the best year so far, but as NE mentions, he did come up big at the NESCAC Tournament with wins against Bates and Middlebury. Since we only have two years of data on Jiang, he simply might be one of those big match players that steps up at the end of the year. That scares me about a dude with championship experience going up against a freshman in Neves. Neves has had a rock solid year shuttling between #3/4/5 in the Wash U lineup, and will present Jiang a consistent challenge. Here is where I believe Bowdoin’s defending championship experience comes into play. Bowdoin, 7-5, 3-6, 6-4.
#5 Singles: Gil Roddy (Bowdoin-junior) vs. Jeremy Bush (Wash U-senior).
NE: It is beyond shocking to me that AS isn’t taking Roddy here given how much praise he has heaped on the Bowdoin junior this year. That being said, Bush at #5 is a damn tough matchup. Gil was 17-2 before NCAAs, and added wins against Nichols and MIT in the NCAA Regional. Of his 19 wins this spring, 18 have come in straight sets, and it’s not like he’s doing this against shoddy competition, going 15-2 against teams ranked in the top 25. Bush is a senior with NCAA experience, so this about a tough a matchup as you can get, but I like Agent Zero to come up big for the champs. Bowdoin, 6-4, 6-4.
AS: Given that Roddy is on my fantasy team as well as one of the best if not the best #5 in the country, this would seem like a no brainer. Roddy has like two losses on the year to Daniels of Wesleyan and Park of CMS, and while he is sick, he is beatable. But this match is going to be about the Wash U senior, Jeremy Bush. He hasn’t played much singles this year, but when he has, he’s beaten Luke Tsai (one of the country’s best #4s) twice. As I mentioned in doubles, Jeremy Bush is going to step up as he did at UAAs. I feel it in my gut that Bush takes this one. Wash U, 6-7, 7-5, 6-4 (clinch).
#6 Singles: Justin Patel (Bowdoin-freshman) vs. J.J. Kroot (Wash U-freshman).
NE: Kroot took a couple tough losses to start the year, but since then has been a machine, knocking off #6’s from great teams like Emory and Chicago (2x). Similarly, Patel has been equally as great of late, and actually hasn’t lost a singles match all spring. However, Kroot will be his toughest opponent yet, and I like the freshman Bear to beat the freshman Polar Bear. Wash U, 6-3, 3-6, 6-3.
AS: JJ Kroot is going to be one of the better players in DIII by the time his career is over. Well, that might be an exaggeration, but he’s going to be a force at the top of the lineup at some point. That journey starts here in a freshman vs. freshman battle that will be huge for the Bears. I think the fiery Kroot comes out and takes his momentum from doubles to give Wash U a much needed win. Wash U 6-3, 6-2.
OVERALL PREDICTION:
NE: Bowdoin def. Wash U 5-3. The Polar Bears break the NCAA Champion hangover streak and make the semis, setting up a rematch of last year’s epic semifinals with Emory.
AS: I think this is going to be the best match of the quarterfinals and it’s going to come down to one of the best matches in this match. Bush vs. Roddy is a stellar matchup at #5 singles that we don’t get to see everyday. I hope it goes three, I hope it’s the clincher, and I would like to see Wash U make it to the semifinal to set up a potential date with Emory. I don’t always get what I want, but it doesn’t hurt to ask.