NCAA Quarterfinal Preview: No. 1 Emory vs Williams
In a match between two traditional DIII powers, Emory vs. Williams is the first of our UAA/NESCAC battles that we get to preview for NCAAs. While this will probably be the lesser matchup of the power conference battles, this has the opportunity to be a really good match if WIlliams steps up at certain positions. I personally only have one team left from my region in the tournament, so all my marbles are in the Emory basket, as they always seem to be at this time of year. We’ve got these previews going out for you all week so please remember to check back to the other matchups! Oh and by the way, these matches start on Monday.
EMORY
Power 6: 76.74. Aman Manji (13.49), Jonathan Jemison (13.33), Adrien Bouchet (12.78), Alec Josepher (12.24), Josh Goodman (12.49), Scott Rubenstein (12.31).
Route to the Quarterfinals: Emory basically breezed through their region this past weekend, beating NC Wesleyan and Sewanee by the combined score of 10-1. They did have a bit of an issue in doubles against NCW but seemed to turn that around against Sewanee which was encouraging. Emory has been Emory all year, no real other way to say that.
Why they’ll win: They’ll win because they are currently the better team and also a playoff tested team. Emory is strong where Williams is strong, particularly at #2 and #3 singles where Williams really relies on points to get their wins. Against the best teams, Williams needs those guaranteed points and I simply don’t think they will get them against the Eagles. Emory is the deeper team and also has one of the best 1/2/3 punches in the nation, which is kind of why they are the #1 team in the nation.
Why they won’t: Doubles – Emory’s “weakness” has always relatively been doubles when compared against their singles and this year is no different. Williams has the ability to sweep the Eagles with rock solid doubles across the board. Williams has done this before by sweeping Middlebury in the regular season before getting smoked in singles, but they know that it can be done. The Eagles lineup is tailored to avoid sweeps, but on any given day in Tennessee, anything can happen.
X-Factor: Scott Rubinstein. Rubinstein is a new addition to the Emory singles lineup as I had recently mentioned in an article while also playing #1 doubles. He’s always been a strong doubles player and is a former and current national qualifier, but he’s recently found his singles game. He’ll go up against Jordan Sadowsky who happens to be NE’s X-Factor for Williams, so it’s fitting that Rubinstein will play against him. Williams only has a shot to win a few spots in singles in my opinion, #6 is one of them. Rubinstein can make a Williams victory a pipe dream real quick.
WILLIAMS
Power 6: 73.47. Rohan Shastri (11.92), Brian Grodecki (12.99), Sachin Raghavan (12.27), Deepak Indrakanti (12.13), Ananth Raghavan (12.14), Jordan Sadowsky (12.02).
Route to the Quarterfinals: Williams got the biggest win of their regular season when they beat Amherst at NESCACs. In doing so, the Ephs earned the final Pool-C spot, and were the 9th most highly rated team to make NCAAs. Williams earned a bye to the round of 32, then rolled past Wilkes 5-0 to earn a rematch with archrival Amherst in the Sweet 16. Just like at NESCACs, Williams beat its rival 5-3 to advance to the Quarterfinals for the first time since their title run in 2013.
Why they’ll win: Williams follows a tried and true formula, playing good doubles and having a couple of very strong spots on whom they can usually count for singles points. Grodecki and the elder Raghavan have had great years, and while they will face some stiff competition, they have succeeded against tough opponents all year. Other than Grodecki and S. Raghavan, their depth has come up with wins this year too. The Ephs will likely need either Indrakanti, Lil’ Raghavan, or Sadowsky to come up big where Emory is most vulnerable. I mentioned doubles earlier but I want to reiterate just how important the dubs is. While Jemison and Omsky are a great #3 team, and Emory’s top two teams are no slouches, Williams has a great chance to take a doubles lead. If they pounce early on a court or two, and all of a sudden Emory needs the last match to avoid the sweep, things would get even more interesting in a hurry.
Why they won’t: To put it simply, Emory is stronger at Williams’ strongest points. I talked about BG and Sach, but Jemison and Bouchet are one of, if not the, top #2&3 combo in the country (though Hull and Morkovine might have something to say about that). Even if Williams takes a 2-1 doubles lead, Emory will still be the odds on favorite to win the match, considering they are likely favored at (at least) five of the six singles spots. The Ephs certainly face an uphill battle in their matchup with Emory, but that should be the case when you’re taking on the overall No. 1 seed in the bracket
X-Factor: Jordan Sadowsky. Sadowsky recently made his comeback to the singles lineup, taking down Jesse Levitin at #6 singles in the Sweet-16 match vs Amherst. #6 was a spot that was giving Williams some trouble throughout the regular season, but if the junior can continue his strong play and take down Rubenstein at what is likely Emory’s weakest spot, he will put his team in a much better position to try and pull of the upset. He also pairs with Shastri at #2 doubles, in what will likely be the swing doubles match. If Sadowsky comes up with two points against the Eagles, the Ephs should be in good shape.
Match by Match
#1 Doubles: Rubenstein/Spaulding (Emory) vs. Grodecki/Taylor (Williams).
AS: This is a match that I think Williams expects to win with their powerhouse #1 team, but the fact of the matter is Rubinstein/Spaulding will forever be underestimated because of the star power on Emory and at #1 doubles. I can see the Emory team surprising the strong Williams team despite the dominating performance against Amherst. You can bet that the Emory duo is going hard this week. In a surprise, Emory 9-7
NE: Grodecki and Taylor are one of the best teams in the country, but Rubenstein/Spaulding have had a nice year too. This is a spot that Williams needs to win. The Ephs are coming off an 8-1 drubbing of an NCAA qualifying team in Bessette/Fung (Amherst), and I think they continue their hot play. Williams, 8-5.
#2 Doubles: Bouchet/Renke (Emory) vs. Sadowsky/Shastri (Williams).
AS: Bouchet and Renke have had their ups and downs this year with some head scratching losses after a really strong Indoors performance. They have the big game of Renke and I think the team goes up and down with his performance as Bouchet is really rock solid. In this match, I really like the experience of Sadowsky/Shastri and will go ahead and take them. Williams, 8-5
NE: As I mentioned above, this is probably the tightest match. Both #2 teams are very good, but both also have their flaws. Again, it’s a match that Williams will probably need to win if they are going to pull off the major upset. I think they get it done. Williams, 8-6.
#3 Doubles: Jemison/Omsky (Emory) vs. Raghavan/Raghavan (Williams).
AS: Here’s a spot that was probably considered a lock all year for Emory until about the past month or so. I mentioned in my NCAA recap that it’s time to stop thinking that the Jemison/Omsky team is a guarantee. They won Fall ITAs, but that was in the fall. Things have changed now as Omsky was dealing with some type of injury I believe and this team has played close with a few teams that I was a bit surprised by. The brothers Raghavan have not played much together this year I believe, although they’ve probably played a lot in their lifetime. While I’ve been hating a little on the Emory team, I think this is where champions step up. Emory, 8-4.
NE: Finally a spot where I think EU has the edge. Yes, Jemison and Omsky have a few losses against teams who generally play good doubles, but they are also a smart team that shouldn’t get rattled by the moment. I do LOVE when we get a brother doubles pair, but ultimately I’m afraid the Raghavni come up short. Emory, 8-6.
#1 Singles: Aman Manji (Emory-senior) vs. Rohan Shastri (Williams-senior).
AS: I literally was going to start my blurb with “big advantage for Emory” but I see that NE did that already! Shastri is a senior, but the thing is, so is Manji. And I believe a lot more in Manji’s experience and talent right now. Manji has followed up his fall ITA Championship with a really great year at #1 and this should be a match where he can outlast Shastri by one ball in every rally. Give me Manji. Emory, 6-1, 6-3.
NE: Big advantage to Emory here. Shastri came up HUGE when Williams needed him most at NESCACs, but that was on his home court (or at least a tennis center nearby his home courts). Manji is one of the best in the business, and certainly will not beat himself. Emory, 6-3, 6-2.
#2 Singles: Jonathan Jemison (Emory-sophomore) vs. Brian Grodecki (Williams-junior).
AS: I think this is the match that will almost be guaranteed to go unfinished as both of these guys can rally from the baseline for days. If either one is off their games, the match will go quickly, but we haven’t seen that all year. This should be the best match of the day and I’d be really surprised if someone finishes it before the match is over. Tie, 7-5, 4-6, 1-1
NE: This should be the gem of the singles matches. Both JJ and BG are two of the bes #2’s in the country, and both are the likely heirs to the throne next year after their respective senior #1’s graduate. Jemison has had the slightly better year, but I expect this to be fight till the end. Emory, 7-6 (5), 2-6, 6-3.
#3 Singles: Adrien Bouchet (Emory-sophomore) vs. Sachin Raghavan (Williams-junior).
AS: The last time I doubted Adrien Bouchet, I’m pretty sure he reeled off like 6 straight singles wins. Bouchet has been one of the winningest players for Emory despite moving up a spot from his position last year, and he gets a very tough test in the older Raghavan in this match. It will be interesting to see where the score comes out in this one and this will tell us how well Bouchet is playing at the moment. My guess? He’s playing really damn well. Emory leads 7-5, 4-2.
NE: Another very tight singles match. Bouchet did struggle a bit in the middle of the season, but hasn’t lost since Emory’s trip to Texas more than six weeks ago, including a couple of good straight-set wins over Hopkins, CMU and Wash U. Sach has really been outstanding this year. He is 18-1 at #3 this spring, and avenged his only loss with a 2&2 win over Derbani (Midd) at NESCACs. I’ll take the Eph, 6-4, 7-6 (3).
#4 Singles: Alec Josepher (Emory-junior) vs. Deepak Indrakanti (Williams-sophomore).
AS: Josepher is a big guy with a big game, plus he doesn’t play any doubles. Indrakanti of Williams has been a semi-disappointment to me this year but that might be me being tough on the kid. I think this is one where the two guys might have a little match jitters to start it off so it could be some ugly tennis from the get go. Judging from what I saw at Indoors and what I’ve seen since, Josepher is playing the better tennis. Emory 6-3, 6-2.
NE: A very interesting match as both guys will be fresh for singles. Deepak has lost a lot of close matches this year, while the SMU transfer has had a pretty good start to his Emory career. Indrakanti absolutely has the ability to win this match, but I think Josepher takes care of business. Emory, 6-4, 6-3.
#5 Singles: Josh Goodman (Emory-senior) vs. Ananth Raghavan (Williams-freshman).
AS: As with many matches, I’m going to predict that Josh Goodman will be the man to clinch the Emory victory. He’s done so many times over his career and this is probably where he’s going to shine the brightest. Lil Raghavan is another guy who I don’t necessarily believe can step it up and beat the senior, which is an extremely tough task at this time of year. Goodman will just continue to be solid and clinch the match for Emory. Emory 6-4, 6-4.
NE: With only two DIII losses so far this spring, Goodman has probably been the best part of Emory’s depth. In an NCAA tournament match between a senior with years of NCAA experience versus a freshman, the edge always goes to the senior. Lil’ Raghavan had a good win over TVG at NESCACs, but he has had his ups and downs this spring. Emory, 6-3, 1-6, 6-2.
#6 Singles: Scott Rubenstein (Emory-junior) vs. Jordan Sadowsky (Williams-junior).
AS: The battle between the X-Factors is an interesting one where both players have not gotten much singles run. Sadowsky can probably continue his postseason magic here and he will potentially be leading this one, but it should be close. Here’s where you see that Emory simply has the depth to counter anything Williams can throw at them. It’ll be close and I think my score prediction probably doesn’t matter here. Williams leads 6-3, 4-5.
NE: Scotty has been very effective in his limited singles play this season. Known as a doubles specialist last year and to start this year, he had good wins over Kirkov (CMU) and Berman (Wash U) at UAAs. Like Rubenstein, Sadowsky was recently brought back to the singles lineup, and has also been providing. Close one here, and one that might end up unfinished. Emory leads, 6-4, 3-6, 3-2.
Overall Prediction:
AS: Emory advances with a 5-1 win over Williams, ending their postseason run. There are a few matches to watch but I think that Emory is going to be better at 5 spots before anything gets hairy.
NE: Emory advances to another semifinal appearance by defeating Williams 5-3 with one match still unfinished.
Be sure to check back all week for more NCAA QF previews as well as the Recruiting Hub, and maybe some highlights!