D3RegASouth: Ladies and gentlemen, prepare to be amazed. In this article we will be covering not one, not three, but FIVE conference previews! Yes you heard that right! However, such a feat is not able to be completed alone, which is why I’ve brought in my dear friends the Real ASouth and our resident RegNEC to help with this. While all of these conference tournaments seem relatively straightforward, its #MayMadness and anything can happen (shoutout to CNU). Enough blabbering though, let’s get to it!
Empire 8
D3RegionalNEC: While Stevens has been the most successful team in this conference and they are covered by RegAS, the entire rest of the conference is in my domain, so I guess I should have some thoughts on what’s going on. First of all, I need to take a minute to direct you to the roster of the Utica Pioneers. Eight guys over 200 pounds, including Alfonzo Whitehurst, who may be 0-4 in singles with zero games won and 0-8 in doubles with four games won, but is perhaps the biggest dude in D3 tennis, listed at 390 pounds. For what it’s worth, Alfonzo also (unsurprisingly) is a lineman on the football team, and on their roster he’s listed at 415!
Ok, thanks for indulging me in that little diversion. Back to the conference preview. The seeds are as follows:
- Stevens
- Ithaca
- St. John Fisher
- Houghton
The main things to know are that Stevens won every conference match 9-0 this season, so if they don’t win this tournament I would be shocked. Ithaca also crushed both St. John Fisher and Houghton, and as a regionally ranked team they have the ability to win a few points against the Ducks. While Stevens won 9-0 a few weeks ago, Ithaca’s #4 Nate Wolf did not play in singles. Assuming both teams are at full strength, I think it could be a more competitive match than their first time around. Keep in mind that Ithaca actually does have an indirect win over Stevens by way of RPI! At the end of the day, though I’m taking Stevens 5-1, with Ithaca leading in at least one of the remaining matches for what it’s worth.
D3 Reg ASouth: As previously mentioned by RegNEC, a majority of the teams in the Empire 8 are not Division 3 tennis household names. This conference isn’t good and after the season that Stevens has had, they better be counting their lucky stars that they are in a lower tier conference and don’t have to worry about getting into NCAAs. Or do they? While the match score earlier this season was 9-0 in the Ducks favor, Ithaca was missing their #4 singles player and the individual matches weren’t exactly blowouts, see here http://stevensducks.com/documents/2017/4/22/SIT_Ithaca.pdf. None of the doubles matches were blowouts and the singles featured a few tiebreakers as well as a multiple 7-5 and 6-4 sets. The Empire 8 final could get very interesting if Ithaca is able to jump out to a doubles lead. All that being said, that’s probably me trying to generate #fakenews and I still think the Ducks take this match 5-2.
Liberty League
D3RegionalNEC: Another four team tournament, the Liberty League has been recently dominated by Skidmore, winners in five of the last six years, only once falling to Vassar in 2013. I don’t have any interesting findings about the roster of these teams, so let’s get straight to the seeds:
- Skidmore
- Hobart
- RPI
- Vassar
Semifinals:
Skidmore vs Vassar
Having beaten Vassar 9-0 back in February, I don’t think there’s really much of a chance that Skidmore doesn’t get through this one smoothly. That said, Vassar is a scrappy bunch and I could see them hanging around in doubles, though I am going to pick the Thoroughbreds to sweep. In singles, there are a few spots where Vassar will be able to hang, but unfortunately they’re also overmatched some spots and Skidmore will likely clinch fairly early at 5-0. Litsky fell 5&5 to Leung last time, and if it’s similarly contested I don’t think it’ll finish, as they play to decision. The biggest thing to watch for here is whether Skidmore #3 Lucas Pickering is in the lineup, as the junior was out in their last match against Amherst.
RPI vs Hobart
These teams will be facing off for the second time in a week, with Hobart winning comprehensively 7-2 at home last Sunday. That’s a big ask for RPI to turn that result around just six days later, but most of the matches were tight and I think the pressure is going to be on Hobart. Doubles wise, I’m thinking RPI wins again at #2 like they did last weekend, and finds a win at 1 or 3 as well to go up 2-1. In singles, I don’t want to go matchup by matchup because I don’t know if the teams will make any lineup changes, but I will say that last weekend four of the six singles matches went three sets, and it’s going to be tough for the Statesmen to once again come out on top in a majority of the close matches. My head tells me that I should make the logical choice and pick the team that just won 7-2, but I think the challenge of beating a team of a similar level twice in a row proves to be a bit too much for Hobart, and RPI squeaks by 5-4 and advances to the final.
Finals:
Because I really don’t know who will win the RPI vs Hobart semifinal, it makes no sense to preview the final here besides just giving some general thoughts about how Skidmore could be beat. I would give either Hobart or RPI a 5-10% chance of the upset, as the Thoroughbreds beat both 7-2 in the regular season. Obviously, a doubles lead would be essential, and I think that’s actually fairly feasible. Skidmore’s #3 doubles hasn’t been particularly strong, and while Leung/Wynne have had a great spring, Koulouris/Pickering have had their ups and downs at #2 and are beatable. Also keep in mind that RPI features the ITA winners from the fall, and while Castillo-Sanchez and Ebenfeld haven’t been playing at that same level this spring, they have the ability to win against Skidmore at ether #1 or #2. Singles wise, Leung, Koulouris, and Wynne (1, 2, and 4 most likely) are the toughest outs for Skid, so RPI/Hobart would need to win the other three spots to pull the upset. Obviously, a lot would have to go right for Skidmore to fall, which is why I’m picking them to win 5-2 and advance to NCAAs.
D3 Reg ASouth: Skidmore enters the tournament as the best team and will leave with the crown. However I think this tournament could be interesting and that there might be an upset. No one will upset Skid, but I’m circling the Hobart/RPI matchup. RPI is a team with talent and I have a gut feeling that they’re going to be able to battle Hobart and take a close 5-3 match avenging the loss earlier in the week. Look for the engineers to take a 2-1 lead after doubles and grind out 3 singles wins, one of them being from Castillo-Sanchez because my fantasy team really needs some points.
After Skidmore beats Vassar 5-0 they will face RPI in the finals, but regardless of whether or not its RPI of Hobart, I see the result being pretty much the same. I won’t beat a dead horse or thoroughbred, if I may, but Skidmore is probably one of the most consistent teams in Division 3 tennis. Every year they play a schedule that allows them to remain in the 17-23 range. They schedule teams in the top 10 that they compete with, but lose to as well as teams in the low 20s that they thump to flex their muscles. Skid will easily take down RPI or Hobart in the finals and take the Liberty League crown. 100-1 odds are still out there for Skid making it past the sweet 16. You know where to find me.
Centennial Conference
D3 Atlantic South: I’m proud to be celebrating Conference Week with the two new regionals, who are really fun at parties by the way. The Centennial Conference is my mission here in this article and I think it really comes down to two teams – Johns Hopkins and Swarthmore. It just so happens that these two teams played this past weekend and I’ve provided the boxscore here.
The most important thing to take from this, other than the fact that Hopkins swept doubles, is that Scott Thygesen had to retire 4 games into his first set. He seems to have some sort of leg injury and my guess is that he’s doubtful for this weekend.
You’ll notice that Hop swept doubles last time and they would do well to sweep again with Thygesen probably missing time. While I don’t think they end up sweeping, I think Hopkins will absolutely have the lead – Swat hasn’t played an ounce of good doubles this year so far. They will rely on Fallati/Larkin to try and steal a point at #1.
In singles, Hopkins was relatively comfy in their wins but now they will most likely have to move everyone up, barring a SURPRISE switch of the lineup by Coach Willenborg. Assuming they don’t put a random player at #2, Emerson Walsh vs John Larkin should be a real good match in both their senior years. In theory, Hopkins should win three of the lower singles spots and swat isn’t going to sweep the top 2. At the end of the day I think this is a pretty routine Hopkins 6-3 win, sending Hopkins to the tournament to be a dangerous #2 seed against probably Amherst.
Collegiate Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
D3RegionalNEC: The CCIW tournament actually began on Thursday, with the top four seeds all winning easily. Those seeds, in order, are: Wheaton, Augustana, Millikin, and Carthage. Wheaton is far and away the favorite, as they beat Augustana 9-0 and Millikin and Carthage 8-1. While it’s unlikely anyone will catch the Thunder, the rest of the top 4 is still very much up in the air, as every match between any combination of Carthage, Augustana, and Millikin ended 5-4. Carthage is coming off back to back conference titles and has a long history of winning the tournament, but has struggled with depth this year. Augustana, the host school, hasn’t won the title since 1985 but in recent years has been inching closer to challenging the top teams, and Millikin is the up and coming team that has risen from nowhere into their best ever finish already, as they’ve never before been in the top 4.
With Wheaton likely to cruise to the championship, in addition to the battles for 2nd-4th, there is some intrigue in how Wheaton and Carthage’s #1 singles players and doubles teams do, as they are all currently in contention for NCAA bids. Unfortunately the match between Abban and Ancona may not get to finish, but at least we know their doubles showdown will. Ancona/Steiner currently are #1 in the region and Abban/Jaworski are #3 in the NCAA rankings, so even if Carthage wins they’re both theoretically still in decent shape, but I wouldn’t necessarily bet on both teams making it, so a win here is massive.
Overall, the CCIW has a lot of high stakes tennis despite the fact that there is little doubt which team will come out as champions. Don’t overlook the good tennis and storylines that may come out of Rock Island, Illinois these next couple of days!
Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference
D3RegionalNEC: Thanks to the suggestion of @d3_tree, I’ve decided to include the HCAC as well in this article. I think I’ve admitted this before, but guess what? I’m far from an expert on this conference. If you have more to add or want to call me out on anything I said, by all means comment below or send me an email/tweet/DM. Like the NESCAC, the HCAC (does anyone call it the “H-cack” like the “nes-cack”?) has six teams, with the top two seeds getting byes. Those top seeds are defending champions and regionally ranked Rose Hulman, and Earlham, who at least one commenter believes has “a very strong shot to win the tournament.”
Based off the results of the regular season, Rose Hulman is a step ahead of Earlham, and Earlham is a step ahead of the rest of the field. RHIT beat Earlham just last weekend 6-3, riding a doubles sweep to a comfortably win with all six singles matches being decided in straight sets. I don’t think any of the lower seeds (#3 Hanover, #4 Franklin, #5 Anderson, or #6 Defiance) will be able to stop a rematch on Sunday, so Earlham will have to shore up their doubles if they want to surprise the Fightin’ Engineers. My initial feeling is that Rose-Hulman gets the win once again, albeit in a tight match, partially thanks to their seniors at the top of the lineup. Georges Adam and Brandon Benedict are two UTR 11+ guys with tons of experience to help get Rose-Hulman over the top, and although Earlham’s top player Vitalii Stadnyk is no slouch either with a UTR of 11. 49, the experience, doubles, and depth of Rose-Hulman should be enough to punch their ticket to the NCAA tournament. That said, this should be the closest of any of the finals discussed in this article, so get pumped for what should be an entertaining match. I know I am!